There's kind of an irony in talking about pitching along as I mentioned the other day that the Pirates need to factor in they have adequate pitching by Mlb standards and actually try to put together a consistent offense. Their refusal to do so exposes the many things that this organization really cares about. With the pitching they are getting right now improving the offense under any means necessary would be a good faith gesture to the fans they are trying to make the play offs.
I'm going out on a limb here but by the end of Keller's contract barring injury he will be one of the best pitchers in baseball. What he has endured in his career in the Pirates organization and he still shows up for every start is amazing to me considering what I've seen with other pitchers during his time as a major league pitcher and especially for such a dysfunctional organization. As far as I'm concerned he's earned his contract already.
I can see that, he's already learned to battle through tough outings when he doesn't have his best stuff and get innings. He's humble, works hard, outstanding character and talented. He's still prone to the big inning biting him but he's still coming into his own and the consistency could come were those innings are few and far between.
I never thought you did. I just don't think his body of work is really appreciated by most of us in general. His streak of five plus innings is phenomenal for any pitcher and as a guy that has watched him is whole career and the starts he was abused by Hurdle and then Shelton in games where they allowed him to be battered for no reason at all in seasons they weren't even close to being contenders to save bullpens in irrelevant games was inexcusable. Many a kid has had his arm and career destroyed by this stupid mismanagement and it appears Mitch is stronger then those idiots.
Of the first seven hitters in the Bradenton GCL lineup today the lowest OPS was .868. Severino and De Los Santos especially are dominating in the early going.
-Like that comment from Murph on Plaz and body type/projection. Where I get nervous is with these types is in age-relative-to-performance evals/projections which are leaned upon so heavily these days. These inherently presume positive projection where there may not be as much with a kid already so physically mature.
-Very happy Mitch has put in a good past month of starts. The conundrum the Pirates still find themselves in, though, is not about his age-28 season but paying him almost $40m for his age-31 and 32 seasons. Spending $20m a year on a 2 WARish starter will be the kind of thing that makes it harder for them to build the lineup and bullpen that are missing. Speaks more to my overall disappointment with the Cherington strategy than anything about Keller himself.
Plenty of teams will be likely to want to pay Keller 20 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons. Pitchers don't age like position players. For many pitchers, 31 and 32 are their primes. Point is... if they find themselves in a salary crunch with a lot of pitching coming up at that point, they can always trade him. I wouldn't worry about the contract.
Look on the bright side. I just read an article that the entire project for the F-35 Lightning in a Garbage Bucket will end up costing $2 Trillion. By these standards, $20 million for a starting pitcher is a steal.
I would have agreed with you a few years ago, but the way the game is changing with max-velocity pitchers, I am not sure. Loooking back at the top 11 strike out pitchers from 4 years ago, 6 are injured, 2 are not in the majors and 3 are still pitching well. I'm not worried about the contract, but am a little worried where he stays healthy enough....... and that is only because he is a pitcher.
Keller is not really a max-effort or max velocity guy. Obviously there is always risk of injury, but I think Keller's risk is less relative to the highest velocity, max-effort pitchers. MLB pitchers return to play from Tommy John over 80% of the time now and of these 80%, only 20% experience a significant drop in performance. So 64% recover fully. The recent spate of injuries has everyone worried about every pitcher, but I think the fear is concern is a bit exaggerated. It sucks to miss a year, but position players can miss extended time too for things like broken arms or broken legs.
I don't think the injuries of pitchers is exaggerated, I think it is still understated. I also don't know too many pitchers that have TJ surgery and just miss a year and the value drops significantly. Burrows and Brubaker will miss at least a year and a half, while Brubaker's value dropped to the equivalent of a low middle infielder. Burrow's trade value is probably 1/10 what it was before his injury and do you think Oviedo's expectation's will be just as high when spring training starts next year. I will skip the Keller argument, but I would like to see what 64% of TJ pitchers came back just as strong and only missed a year.
If a 31 year old Cy Young winner is a 30 million a year a free agent foronly 2 years, I just don't see teams trading away like they once did for a 20 million a year pitcher.
A lot of pitchers moved last year: Civale, Scherzer, Giolito, Montgomery. Lorenzen, Flaherty, Verlander. I'm not sure how many were in the $20 million price club, but Verlander and Scherzer certainly were. There is always a market for good pitching, and outside of PIttsburgh or Oakland, $20 million for a quality starter is considered a fair rate.
not just Pittsburgh and Oakland that aren't paying 20 mill for a starter, but include the Twins, Reds, Orioles, Tigers, Red Sox, GIiants, Rays, Royals, Cubs, Angels, Brewers, Marlins, Mets, White Sox, Guardians and Rockies to that list. Only 12 of the 30 teams currently have a 20 million dollar pitcher in their rotation.
I am really not trying to win an argument, but think the way starting pitchers are being used might be the biggest problem in baseball. Their careers aren't lasting as long and it is much more economical for owners. I only see this getting worse in the next few years.
Largely irrelevant, but I recall when Key's "weight" was considered a potential negative if he couldn't "keep the weight off". They made it sound like he was gonna be Vlad Jr. lol
I found if I add a 'no jinx' after my comments praising a guy it usually works, lol. I don't how Wilbur didn't jinx Keller's Sunday start. I will say this about Keller he has proven that you don't have to worry about going to the bullpen early when he's pitching.
There's kind of an irony in talking about pitching along as I mentioned the other day that the Pirates need to factor in they have adequate pitching by Mlb standards and actually try to put together a consistent offense. Their refusal to do so exposes the many things that this organization really cares about. With the pitching they are getting right now improving the offense under any means necessary would be a good faith gesture to the fans they are trying to make the play offs.
"Get Brett Rooker! I said!" (with a nasal NY accent).
I'm going out on a limb here but by the end of Keller's contract barring injury he will be one of the best pitchers in baseball. What he has endured in his career in the Pirates organization and he still shows up for every start is amazing to me considering what I've seen with other pitchers during his time as a major league pitcher and especially for such a dysfunctional organization. As far as I'm concerned he's earned his contract already.
no jinx, lol
I can see that, he's already learned to battle through tough outings when he doesn't have his best stuff and get innings. He's humble, works hard, outstanding character and talented. He's still prone to the big inning biting him but he's still coming into his own and the consistency could come were those innings are few and far between.
I am on your side and I hope I didn't imply anything against Keller. I am a big Mitch fan and he belongs in Pittsburgh.
I never thought you did. I just don't think his body of work is really appreciated by most of us in general. His streak of five plus innings is phenomenal for any pitcher and as a guy that has watched him is whole career and the starts he was abused by Hurdle and then Shelton in games where they allowed him to be battered for no reason at all in seasons they weren't even close to being contenders to save bullpens in irrelevant games was inexcusable. Many a kid has had his arm and career destroyed by this stupid mismanagement and it appears Mitch is stronger then those idiots.
Of the first seven hitters in the Bradenton GCL lineup today the lowest OPS was .868. Severino and De Los Santos especially are dominating in the early going.
-Like that comment from Murph on Plaz and body type/projection. Where I get nervous is with these types is in age-relative-to-performance evals/projections which are leaned upon so heavily these days. These inherently presume positive projection where there may not be as much with a kid already so physically mature.
-Very happy Mitch has put in a good past month of starts. The conundrum the Pirates still find themselves in, though, is not about his age-28 season but paying him almost $40m for his age-31 and 32 seasons. Spending $20m a year on a 2 WARish starter will be the kind of thing that makes it harder for them to build the lineup and bullpen that are missing. Speaks more to my overall disappointment with the Cherington strategy than anything about Keller himself.
Plenty of teams will be likely to want to pay Keller 20 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons. Pitchers don't age like position players. For many pitchers, 31 and 32 are their primes. Point is... if they find themselves in a salary crunch with a lot of pitching coming up at that point, they can always trade him. I wouldn't worry about the contract.
Hey, it ain't my money! ;)
Look on the bright side. I just read an article that the entire project for the F-35 Lightning in a Garbage Bucket will end up costing $2 Trillion. By these standards, $20 million for a starting pitcher is a steal.
I would have agreed with you a few years ago, but the way the game is changing with max-velocity pitchers, I am not sure. Loooking back at the top 11 strike out pitchers from 4 years ago, 6 are injured, 2 are not in the majors and 3 are still pitching well. I'm not worried about the contract, but am a little worried where he stays healthy enough....... and that is only because he is a pitcher.
Keller is not really a max-effort or max velocity guy. Obviously there is always risk of injury, but I think Keller's risk is less relative to the highest velocity, max-effort pitchers. MLB pitchers return to play from Tommy John over 80% of the time now and of these 80%, only 20% experience a significant drop in performance. So 64% recover fully. The recent spate of injuries has everyone worried about every pitcher, but I think the fear is concern is a bit exaggerated. It sucks to miss a year, but position players can miss extended time too for things like broken arms or broken legs.
I don't think the injuries of pitchers is exaggerated, I think it is still understated. I also don't know too many pitchers that have TJ surgery and just miss a year and the value drops significantly. Burrows and Brubaker will miss at least a year and a half, while Brubaker's value dropped to the equivalent of a low middle infielder. Burrow's trade value is probably 1/10 what it was before his injury and do you think Oviedo's expectation's will be just as high when spring training starts next year. I will skip the Keller argument, but I would like to see what 64% of TJ pitchers came back just as strong and only missed a year.
If a 31 year old Cy Young winner is a 30 million a year a free agent foronly 2 years, I just don't see teams trading away like they once did for a 20 million a year pitcher.
A lot of pitchers moved last year: Civale, Scherzer, Giolito, Montgomery. Lorenzen, Flaherty, Verlander. I'm not sure how many were in the $20 million price club, but Verlander and Scherzer certainly were. There is always a market for good pitching, and outside of PIttsburgh or Oakland, $20 million for a quality starter is considered a fair rate.
not just Pittsburgh and Oakland that aren't paying 20 mill for a starter, but include the Twins, Reds, Orioles, Tigers, Red Sox, GIiants, Rays, Royals, Cubs, Angels, Brewers, Marlins, Mets, White Sox, Guardians and Rockies to that list. Only 12 of the 30 teams currently have a 20 million dollar pitcher in their rotation.
I am really not trying to win an argument, but think the way starting pitchers are being used might be the biggest problem in baseball. Their careers aren't lasting as long and it is much more economical for owners. I only see this getting worse in the next few years.
Largely irrelevant, but I recall when Key's "weight" was considered a potential negative if he couldn't "keep the weight off". They made it sound like he was gonna be Vlad Jr. lol
The constant back issues would usually lead you to believe the weight things was still a thing lol
What a blast from the past!
Not many dudes more trim than him these days from the looks of it.
This is true.
Preach. And don’t absolve Bob while you’re at it.
Noah Hiles one upped you on posting a Michael Kennedy interview.....the dirty rat....
Second person this week (Tim at BA)
Saving the best for last 😬?
Anyone know how he’s doing?
*Writes about Bowen*
*Goes 0-for-5*
#NolaCurse
Time for a Murph trip. Boost Toona the way you boosted the Marauders
Don’t want to deprive Murph of credit, but what boosted the Marauders was getting a bunch of different players. But Federal St ain’t paying attention.
That's going to take every bit of mojo I got left lol. Not sure I'm recharged yet after Bradenton
Just need a couple laps on the coaster. Don't worry, Mason Martin can't harm you anymore
With how the offense has been, think I’d be fairly safe on the coaster lol
I found if I add a 'no jinx' after my comments praising a guy it usually works, lol. I don't how Wilbur didn't jinx Keller's Sunday start. I will say this about Keller he has proven that you don't have to worry about going to the bullpen early when he's pitching.
Keller pitched before my comments got posted. That must be the secret.