In this weeks edition, an added look at the FCL Pirates team with their regular season winding down and more 2023 draft picks start to make appearances.
After reading Jim Bowden’s list of Top 20 MLB 2023 rookies (don’t look, no Pirates) I decided to look at our highly touted #2 farm system. Ours may have been left out because of not enough ABs, but would that have mattered? Not one batter has produced an OPS+ higher than 95 (100 is average).
Endy - 95, Peguero - 92, Davis - 75, Bae -70. Other young players include Suwinski at 110 and Hayes at 90 (a career high).
Of course, they’re young, but when ALL of them are struggling, does it make you wonder? Other teams rookies (esp in the NL Central) seem to be doing well.
So, pre season expectations for Endy and Peguero were below how they’re performing? I’ll give you Pegeuro, but Endy? I never thought Nicky would do well, so he didn’t disappoint me.
Or am I guilty of looking at other teams, seeing how well THEIR rookies are performing and wondering why ours aren’t? I wonder what THEIR preseason expectations were?
I guess, bottom line is that I believe our rookies, esp the Two Top 100 Rookies, Endy and QP, (along with Tank) have been disappointing to date, at least in my eyes. Might they improve? I sure as heck hope so.
I'd guess it's more that you don't see how many other team's rookies fail or struggle, on account of that being the natural order of such things.
Endy is nearly a league-average big league hitter while barely just turning 23 years old. You don't need both hands to count the number of catchers who can lay claim to that over the last couple decades.
No, I know the failure rate of prospects. And, Endy DOES look like a keeper so far. But from Bowden’s article when you see how many NL Central rookies AREN’T struggling and our vaunted #2 farm system appears to be graduating duds, it DOES seem to be a bit more disappointing than normal.
You were right about expectations. But, every time we get a highly ranked class, I think ‘could this be the one’ and then reality hits. I never learn. 😛😛
Pirate fans just can’t have nice things. But, at least we have nice people. 😉😉
When I read this morning that the Nationals are promoting Crews to AA, I cringed a little bit but finished my breakfast. I was then foolish enough to look up his stats so far and compared them to what the Pirates have in center field and just wanted to go back to bed. I sure hope Skenes turns into Superman.
Agreed! Was on the Crews train pre-draft. i figured he has a chance to move quicker as he’d at least get some ABs in AA & AFL this year while Skenes won’t get “real“ pro SP experience til next year
Crews has been incredible so far, but he’s been in Low A, which is probably below the level of the SEC, at least the elite programs. Let’s see how he does at a much more appropriate level. (He’ll probably still be amazing, but let’s see). The only red flag in his game so far is the 6-19 walk to strikeout ratio.
Again, the problem is that the Pirates needed both Skenes and Crews or Skenes and Langford. I wasn’t able to participate in all the pre-draft debate, but I am fine with their taking Skenes. Skenes and Crews both appear to have the “it” factor —- totally embracing being leaders and the center of attention. (Check out Jason Mackey’s articles on Skenes in the P-G if you haven’t already. The guy is totally dialed in to being great).
But ultimately it will become clear who they should have taken given that they could choose only one of the top five.
You mean Crews has only dominated at the same level where Skenes has pitched a total of three innings so far? That level?
It’s way too late, or maybe too early, to have any discussion about what should have or could have happened in the draft. I know I started it and I’m regretting it already. It’s not that I minded their drafting Skenes. It’s more that I’m really bummed that they passed on Crews if that makes any sense. I just simply believe hitters like Crews are way more valuable than any pitcher. Skenes will just have to go out there and prove me wrong, PLEASE!
Crews has dominated for FredNats, take away his first game were he went 0 for 5 and his stats really get video gameish. (I know he's had a couple other hitless games but not many)
If you put personal fandom aside, that Harrisburg outfield is about to be majestic. Add in the fact we get an Altoona vs. Harrisburg series in a couple weeks
The Orioles supposedly have the top farm system and 9 of their top 30 prospects are outfielders. No one needs 9 outfielders especially because they already have a pretty good outfield. The Pirates need to swap some infielders or pitchers for outfielders with someone and the Orioles appear to have an excess of them.
As much as I would hate too, the O's are a team I could see trading Keller to.
Say Keller for Cowser, Basallo, Beavers, and De Leon. Of course the names could change but they are deep. I don't think we could pull a prospect for prospect trade with them but could be wrong.
Let’s compound that by pointing out that the Pirates have no outfield prospects above low A ball where White (if he can stay healthy) and Polonco sit, both still very young and a long way from Pittsburgh, and have Reynolds as the only contributing outfielder in the major leagues (if anyone dares mention Suwinski I’m going to find you somehow and throw something at you, sorry just kidding, no actual violence intended) but don’t try it.
Do Mitchell, Smith-Njigba, Frazier or anyone else at AAA or AA have the slightest chance of becoming anything resembling a major league outfielder? Gorski? McAdoo? Maybe and maybe but in reality the Pirates have no one in the minors even vaguely threatening to show up anytime soon. This is a major problem now and over the next couple of years at least, unless it’s addressed through free agency or trades.
Yeah, that's something that's been bothering me. (here comes NMR with his, "maybe they just weren't good?" Lol)
I look/think back to 2021 when it looked like the org was flush with OF prospects. You had some young hype guys, Fraizer break out, new additions from trades, etc. And all they ended up with was Jack? Who at best should probably be a corner OF that starts against RHP in the 7 spot hoping he runs into one. A lot have/will flush out by Double-A, if they even make it that far.
Matt Frazier has been good at baseball for like 4 months of his career.
Cal Mitchel is the embodiment of fringe-average tools across the board.
Gorski is playing beer league softball.
And between injuries and swing changes, Swag just never found a mix that worked for him.
If I have heartburn about any of 'em it's CSN, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball in spite of having the absolute worst swing in the system. Never have been able to develop him an inch, whether he's uncoachable or they just aren't good at this.
Oh I think dev is very much still and issue, but mainly in the realm of having no choice but to be elite. If we're talking about the Bell Curve of player dev departments, I think the Pirates continue to be right in the milky center of expected outcomes. Same goes for the scouting side. Are there more than, I don't know, 6 or 7 orgs demonstrably, routinely better?
Like ten years ago nobody would've considered Siani and Head prospects of note to begin with. Part of this feeling of disappointment, I still say, comes from the change in how we view prospects. Judging by measures of old baseball wisdom, I don't see a huge upper-level rate of failure.
I just realized I forgot about Bae. Is he an infielder or outfielder? No matter. Play him regularly in center field instead of Suwinski to see how it works out and I’m good with it.
If Hassell III wasn't struggling, it'd be off the charts. Not to mention, I haven't seen anything yet, but I'd imagine Yohandy Morales isn't far behind Crews in being promoted to Double-A.
Morales has surprised me from what I saw in early March. He looked like a mistake hitter at Miami. Early in the season he struggled on high heat and offspeed stuff low and anything away. (He crushed anything middle middle though)
Listened to the latest podcast episode and really enjoyed, got my subscription fellas
Bishop just went oppo. Two career HRs. I’ve seen both. Both oppo.
After reading Jim Bowden’s list of Top 20 MLB 2023 rookies (don’t look, no Pirates) I decided to look at our highly touted #2 farm system. Ours may have been left out because of not enough ABs, but would that have mattered? Not one batter has produced an OPS+ higher than 95 (100 is average).
Endy - 95, Peguero - 92, Davis - 75, Bae -70. Other young players include Suwinski at 110 and Hayes at 90 (a career high).
Of course, they’re young, but when ALL of them are struggling, does it make you wonder? Other teams rookies (esp in the NL Central) seem to be doing well.
Might be missing one but I think Hank is the only one of those who hasn't met or exceeded preseason projections?
Nobody has come in and busted the doors off their hinges but that's also reallly reaaallllllyyyy not how baseball usually works.
Aggressive promotions that knowledge major development left to be done at the big league level are gonna produce exactly what we see here.
It's a policy choice. Working as planned.
So, pre season expectations for Endy and Peguero were below how they’re performing? I’ll give you Pegeuro, but Endy? I never thought Nicky would do well, so he didn’t disappoint me.
Or am I guilty of looking at other teams, seeing how well THEIR rookies are performing and wondering why ours aren’t? I wonder what THEIR preseason expectations were?
I guess, bottom line is that I believe our rookies, esp the Two Top 100 Rookies, Endy and QP, (along with Tank) have been disappointing to date, at least in my eyes. Might they improve? I sure as heck hope so.
I'd guess it's more that you don't see how many other team's rookies fail or struggle, on account of that being the natural order of such things.
Endy is nearly a league-average big league hitter while barely just turning 23 years old. You don't need both hands to count the number of catchers who can lay claim to that over the last couple decades.
Expectations, brother!
No, I know the failure rate of prospects. And, Endy DOES look like a keeper so far. But from Bowden’s article when you see how many NL Central rookies AREN’T struggling and our vaunted #2 farm system appears to be graduating duds, it DOES seem to be a bit more disappointing than normal.
You were right about expectations. But, every time we get a highly ranked class, I think ‘could this be the one’ and then reality hits. I never learn. 😛😛
Pirate fans just can’t have nice things. But, at least we have nice people. 😉😉
Love this series, one of my favorite features by far! Great work all!
Yes , very much agree!!!
When I read this morning that the Nationals are promoting Crews to AA, I cringed a little bit but finished my breakfast. I was then foolish enough to look up his stats so far and compared them to what the Pirates have in center field and just wanted to go back to bed. I sure hope Skenes turns into Superman.
Agreed! Was on the Crews train pre-draft. i figured he has a chance to move quicker as he’d at least get some ABs in AA & AFL this year while Skenes won’t get “real“ pro SP experience til next year
Skenes was just promoted to Altoona for his next start.
He'll be used as an opener, essentially. 10-20 IP in AA as a bullpen arm does not equal 100-200 ABs as an everyday player.
Well, that’s something I suppose. Maybe he’ll pitch against Harrisburg and people can finally see him against Crews.
Crews has been incredible so far, but he’s been in Low A, which is probably below the level of the SEC, at least the elite programs. Let’s see how he does at a much more appropriate level. (He’ll probably still be amazing, but let’s see). The only red flag in his game so far is the 6-19 walk to strikeout ratio.
Again, the problem is that the Pirates needed both Skenes and Crews or Skenes and Langford. I wasn’t able to participate in all the pre-draft debate, but I am fine with their taking Skenes. Skenes and Crews both appear to have the “it” factor —- totally embracing being leaders and the center of attention. (Check out Jason Mackey’s articles on Skenes in the P-G if you haven’t already. The guy is totally dialed in to being great).
But ultimately it will become clear who they should have taken given that they could choose only one of the top five.
You mean Crews has only dominated at the same level where Skenes has pitched a total of three innings so far? That level?
It’s way too late, or maybe too early, to have any discussion about what should have or could have happened in the draft. I know I started it and I’m regretting it already. It’s not that I minded their drafting Skenes. It’s more that I’m really bummed that they passed on Crews if that makes any sense. I just simply believe hitters like Crews are way more valuable than any pitcher. Skenes will just have to go out there and prove me wrong, PLEASE!
Crews has dominated for FredNats, take away his first game were he went 0 for 5 and his stats really get video gameish. (I know he's had a couple other hitless games but not many)
MLB could’ve let us have both and we’d still screw it up somehow.
(Am I being cynical again about the Bucs? I HATE when that happens).
If you put personal fandom aside, that Harrisburg outfield is about to be majestic. Add in the fact we get an Altoona vs. Harrisburg series in a couple weeks
Yeah even their 4 or 5, Jacob Young would be the pirates top outfield prospect at or above double A.
The Orioles supposedly have the top farm system and 9 of their top 30 prospects are outfielders. No one needs 9 outfielders especially because they already have a pretty good outfield. The Pirates need to swap some infielders or pitchers for outfielders with someone and the Orioles appear to have an excess of them.
As much as I would hate too, the O's are a team I could see trading Keller to.
Say Keller for Cowser, Basallo, Beavers, and De Leon. Of course the names could change but they are deep. I don't think we could pull a prospect for prospect trade with them but could be wrong.
Let’s compound that by pointing out that the Pirates have no outfield prospects above low A ball where White (if he can stay healthy) and Polonco sit, both still very young and a long way from Pittsburgh, and have Reynolds as the only contributing outfielder in the major leagues (if anyone dares mention Suwinski I’m going to find you somehow and throw something at you, sorry just kidding, no actual violence intended) but don’t try it.
Do Mitchell, Smith-Njigba, Frazier or anyone else at AAA or AA have the slightest chance of becoming anything resembling a major league outfielder? Gorski? McAdoo? Maybe and maybe but in reality the Pirates have no one in the minors even vaguely threatening to show up anytime soon. This is a major problem now and over the next couple of years at least, unless it’s addressed through free agency or trades.
Yeah, that's something that's been bothering me. (here comes NMR with his, "maybe they just weren't good?" Lol)
I look/think back to 2021 when it looked like the org was flush with OF prospects. You had some young hype guys, Fraizer break out, new additions from trades, etc. And all they ended up with was Jack? Who at best should probably be a corner OF that starts against RHP in the 7 spot hoping he runs into one. A lot have/will flush out by Double-A, if they even make it that far.
You know me too well. ;)
Matt Frazier has been good at baseball for like 4 months of his career.
Cal Mitchel is the embodiment of fringe-average tools across the board.
Gorski is playing beer league softball.
And between injuries and swing changes, Swag just never found a mix that worked for him.
If I have heartburn about any of 'em it's CSN, who hits the absolute shit out of the ball in spite of having the absolute worst swing in the system. Never have been able to develop him an inch, whether he's uncoachable or they just aren't good at this.
The rest of those dudes stink.
I knew it!! Then even Siani and Head. I do think the development is an issue. I can't imagine it's just a matter of "all of the prospects are bad".
But, does lead me to wonder, maybe the scouts are bad? I mean, they have practically all of the same scouts.
Oh I think dev is very much still and issue, but mainly in the realm of having no choice but to be elite. If we're talking about the Bell Curve of player dev departments, I think the Pirates continue to be right in the milky center of expected outcomes. Same goes for the scouting side. Are there more than, I don't know, 6 or 7 orgs demonstrably, routinely better?
Like ten years ago nobody would've considered Siani and Head prospects of note to begin with. Part of this feeling of disappointment, I still say, comes from the change in how we view prospects. Judging by measures of old baseball wisdom, I don't see a huge upper-level rate of failure.
I just realized I forgot about Bae. Is he an infielder or outfielder? No matter. Play him regularly in center field instead of Suwinski to see how it works out and I’m good with it.
Crews and Wood in the same outfield. Yikes.
If Hassell III wasn't struggling, it'd be off the charts. Not to mention, I haven't seen anything yet, but I'd imagine Yohandy Morales isn't far behind Crews in being promoted to Double-A.
Morales has surprised me from what I saw in early March. He looked like a mistake hitter at Miami. Early in the season he struggled on high heat and offspeed stuff low and anything away. (He crushed anything middle middle though)
I applaud you guys for able to both watch these games AND dissect these pitchers. That report on Uribe alone made his line look more palatable. Bravo!
Nola said about Martin’s ‘low’ K rate “which would be some sort of miracle if he could maintain that. “.
Miracles still occur, at least that’s what my Pastor says. 🤣🤣🤣
It's already jumped a couple points since I wrote that snippet, but still under 30%!!!! lol
Rivas is hitting .180 and striking out 35-40% of the time. Martin at least deserves a shot at being better than that.