Santana has been incredible this year, maybe the best out of the bullpen. I mean, yeah, bullpen arms are fungible, but the guy has a WHIP of .75 with 41 ks in his last 36 innings, and an era of 1. Due for regression, sure, but outside looking in for next year's roster? I'd hope not. At worst, sell high and get a bat.
Agree that Connor Joe could be headed elsewhere after the season. He has earned more than his salary, which is a plus, but still a Utility player with very little power for a 1B/OF. You named Cook and Yorke, and you can add Triolo and Endy Rodriguez as younger players with better career projections.
I hope that we will act as soon as possible to end the Shelton Managerial era, and start to identify more of the present roster who will be simply DFA'd and/or traded. And another hitting Coach.
My Position Player (PP) 2025 Locks would be Oneil Cruz CF, Bryan Reynolds LF, Andrew McCutchen DH/OF, Jared Triolo UT IF, Endy Rodriguez C/1B, and Joey Bart C. After that, it will be a challenge to identify a winning combination. I hope we can identify players who are excellent fielders, put the ball in play, can hit double figures for number of HR's, and less than a 3/1 K/BB rate. In 2024, our best HR hitters (10+ HR) and their K/BB rates were Cruz 3.6, Bart 3.1, Tellez 2.9, Reynolds 2.8, Cutch 2.2. Therefore, I see 3/1 as being a reasonable goal.
Players who can positively handle multiple positions are an additional plus. With only 13 PP with 2 being Catchers, having 1 IF who can step in at any IF position (Triolo), and 1 OF who can do the same at all 3 OF positions (?) is a necessity.
Although it may not be huge issue down the road, I absolutely detested the Peralta/Beeks trade from the second it was announced. Peralta always had great stuff; he only needed to improve his command and consistency to have a major league future. He did (shockingly), and the Pirates then trade him for a rental that was having a bad season. Perhaps Peralta will fail. But the Pirates cannot waste any asset that has value. This was a bad trade.
Was just looking at the PPI, Skenes might be able to still garner a draft pick. He won't be able to for a top finish in ROY but if he finishes top 3 in CYA this year he might. The incentive isn't very clear. The ROY is all about acquiring a full year of service, the top 3 in CYA and MVP extends a couple years after their rookie season.
I'm not sure if a top 2 finish in the ROY disqualifies him for a top 3 finish in CY or MVP. With the season he's had he should at least be top 3 in ROY and CYA.
Before this season I would’ve said 1981 Nolan Ryan if I was asked who I would start if there was a must win game. Now I think I would say Paul Skenes. His arsenal and the way he commands it is unparalleled in the history of MLB.
What’s sad is I very much doubt Bob Nutting cares as much as I do that he has this type of unicorn on his payroll.
I think every other owner in baseball, at least once the A's get settled, would offer Skenes an extension in the $150MM+ range. The Royals did it with Witt, the Rays did it with ... well, you know (if we don't name our former reliever we shouldn't name their former SS).
A 7-year deal for ~$150MM* should be a win-win--we get Skenes for seven instead of five more years while he locks in a big 9-figure deal and still reaches free agency in his 20s. If he'd sign for $200MM for 8 years, even better. At this point they need to wait to see if he finishes top 2 in the ROY, but I'm assuming that he will.
*Without a deal I'm predicting he'd make something like $70-75 via arb and then I'm adding about the same to buy out his first two FA years.
The Royals and Rays did it with no contracts on their books, and let's be honest with each other, the latter were never keeping him through the expensive years.
This is no defense of Bob, but I honestly doubt he'd care less...except for the facts that they're already committed to Keller and Reynolds on extensions through like five of those same Skenes deal years. No chance he'd authorize enough spending to do both.
So, I’ve thought about this concept before with respect to debt ratios for smaller market teams. Assuming you extend Skenes for $200mm, then you ostensibly have over $400mm in future payables on your books. How does this affect your ability to borrow money or your current relationships with lenders? My point being, it may severely handcuff you operationally. To me, this isn’t much different than buying a piece(s) of real estate and levering it as much as possible to juice returns. The cash flow is well supported in the good times, but as soon as something happens, and leverage reverses, you are toast. I have almost never seen anything written about this concept, but I wonder if there is something that precludes them from taking on that much long-term debt or payroll obligations. Just some food for thought.
Interesting, I'd say you would know more than me on that.
Could the opposite angle be looked at as a way to game tax rules? Taking on *some* debt seems to be very much a strategic play for big corps. Extending Paul Skenes as a way to avoid paying income taxes, lol.
I think you might be referring to the concept of roster depreciation allowance, which allows owners to depreciate player contracts and offset profits. This may be one of the reasons we don’t see “high” or “higher” profits from the larger market teams. Very interesting concept, maybe something Ethan could expand on one day.
I like it, but think it will depend on the overall SP depth once the off-season is over. You have Chandler and maybe Harrington knocking on the door, with Burrows and hopefully a healthy and effective Oviedo ready to go, so at this point the depth looks good. And that’s without the add of some veteran SP via free agency.
We’ll have to see if Jones is fully healthy given the circumstances of his last start. There’s also the chance someone like Ortiz or Falter are flipped for offense.
I’ve been on record as signing another starter, shifting Ortiz (or Falter) to the pen, moving Burrows and Ashcraft to the pen, and throwing most (if not all) of the rest of their limited resources at the lineup. Via trade or FA.
If they go that route, their rotation is Skenes, Keller, Jones, FA, Falter (or Ortiz). With Bubba, Harrington and Oviedo in the wings…and possibly Barco too. Also, just moving one of Ortiz/Falter to the pen doesn’t eliminate them as depth options either.
Santana has been incredible this year, maybe the best out of the bullpen. I mean, yeah, bullpen arms are fungible, but the guy has a WHIP of .75 with 41 ks in his last 36 innings, and an era of 1. Due for regression, sure, but outside looking in for next year's roster? I'd hope not. At worst, sell high and get a bat.
Agree that Connor Joe could be headed elsewhere after the season. He has earned more than his salary, which is a plus, but still a Utility player with very little power for a 1B/OF. You named Cook and Yorke, and you can add Triolo and Endy Rodriguez as younger players with better career projections.
I hope that we will act as soon as possible to end the Shelton Managerial era, and start to identify more of the present roster who will be simply DFA'd and/or traded. And another hitting Coach.
My Position Player (PP) 2025 Locks would be Oneil Cruz CF, Bryan Reynolds LF, Andrew McCutchen DH/OF, Jared Triolo UT IF, Endy Rodriguez C/1B, and Joey Bart C. After that, it will be a challenge to identify a winning combination. I hope we can identify players who are excellent fielders, put the ball in play, can hit double figures for number of HR's, and less than a 3/1 K/BB rate. In 2024, our best HR hitters (10+ HR) and their K/BB rates were Cruz 3.6, Bart 3.1, Tellez 2.9, Reynolds 2.8, Cutch 2.2. Therefore, I see 3/1 as being a reasonable goal.
Players who can positively handle multiple positions are an additional plus. With only 13 PP with 2 being Catchers, having 1 IF who can step in at any IF position (Triolo), and 1 OF who can do the same at all 3 OF positions (?) is a necessity.
Although it may not be huge issue down the road, I absolutely detested the Peralta/Beeks trade from the second it was announced. Peralta always had great stuff; he only needed to improve his command and consistency to have a major league future. He did (shockingly), and the Pirates then trade him for a rental that was having a bad season. Perhaps Peralta will fail. But the Pirates cannot waste any asset that has value. This was a bad trade.
Great work on this feature throughout the year, fellas, my favorite along with Jeff's weekly minor league preview!
I feel like Ricky Bobby now, with the minor league season over
Was just looking at the PPI, Skenes might be able to still garner a draft pick. He won't be able to for a top finish in ROY but if he finishes top 3 in CYA this year he might. The incentive isn't very clear. The ROY is all about acquiring a full year of service, the top 3 in CYA and MVP extends a couple years after their rookie season.
I'm not sure if a top 2 finish in the ROY disqualifies him for a top 3 finish in CY or MVP. With the season he's had he should at least be top 3 in ROY and CYA.
Negative. He's ineligible for any PPI pick moving forward.
Woodford cleared waivers or something.
Inconceivable!
Before this season I would’ve said 1981 Nolan Ryan if I was asked who I would start if there was a must win game. Now I think I would say Paul Skenes. His arsenal and the way he commands it is unparalleled in the history of MLB.
What’s sad is I very much doubt Bob Nutting cares as much as I do that he has this type of unicorn on his payroll.
I think every other owner in baseball, at least once the A's get settled, would offer Skenes an extension in the $150MM+ range. The Royals did it with Witt, the Rays did it with ... well, you know (if we don't name our former reliever we shouldn't name their former SS).
A 7-year deal for ~$150MM* should be a win-win--we get Skenes for seven instead of five more years while he locks in a big 9-figure deal and still reaches free agency in his 20s. If he'd sign for $200MM for 8 years, even better. At this point they need to wait to see if he finishes top 2 in the ROY, but I'm assuming that he will.
*Without a deal I'm predicting he'd make something like $70-75 via arb and then I'm adding about the same to buy out his first two FA years.
The most risk adverse Owner offering $200mm? Yeah, right.
The Royals and Rays did it with no contracts on their books, and let's be honest with each other, the latter were never keeping him through the expensive years.
This is no defense of Bob, but I honestly doubt he'd care less...except for the facts that they're already committed to Keller and Reynolds on extensions through like five of those same Skenes deal years. No chance he'd authorize enough spending to do both.
So, I’ve thought about this concept before with respect to debt ratios for smaller market teams. Assuming you extend Skenes for $200mm, then you ostensibly have over $400mm in future payables on your books. How does this affect your ability to borrow money or your current relationships with lenders? My point being, it may severely handcuff you operationally. To me, this isn’t much different than buying a piece(s) of real estate and levering it as much as possible to juice returns. The cash flow is well supported in the good times, but as soon as something happens, and leverage reverses, you are toast. I have almost never seen anything written about this concept, but I wonder if there is something that precludes them from taking on that much long-term debt or payroll obligations. Just some food for thought.
Interesting, I'd say you would know more than me on that.
Could the opposite angle be looked at as a way to game tax rules? Taking on *some* debt seems to be very much a strategic play for big corps. Extending Paul Skenes as a way to avoid paying income taxes, lol.
I think you might be referring to the concept of roster depreciation allowance, which allows owners to depreciate player contracts and offset profits. This may be one of the reasons we don’t see “high” or “higher” profits from the larger market teams. Very interesting concept, maybe something Ethan could expand on one day.
I’d be on board trading Keller and Reynolds if it was only stumbling block to a Skenes extension.
I think you hope Keller has a good 2025 season or two, then look to trade him. I’d keep Reynolds into the foreseeable future.
Mike burrows- 2025 bullpen weapon? Assuming they want to manage some innings
I'd have said that's a slam dunk before his changeup dev. Now I'm not sure a fully recovered Mike Burrows isn't one of their top four starters.
He’s definitely depth option at the least.
Big off-season for him
He should be. As should Ashcraft since he’s only healthy for days at a time. Use the bullets while you can.
Earl Weaver lives!!
Except for the 3 run homers.
I like it, but think it will depend on the overall SP depth once the off-season is over. You have Chandler and maybe Harrington knocking on the door, with Burrows and hopefully a healthy and effective Oviedo ready to go, so at this point the depth looks good. And that’s without the add of some veteran SP via free agency.
We’ll have to see if Jones is fully healthy given the circumstances of his last start. There’s also the chance someone like Ortiz or Falter are flipped for offense.
I’ve been on record as signing another starter, shifting Ortiz (or Falter) to the pen, moving Burrows and Ashcraft to the pen, and throwing most (if not all) of the rest of their limited resources at the lineup. Via trade or FA.
If they go that route, their rotation is Skenes, Keller, Jones, FA, Falter (or Ortiz). With Bubba, Harrington and Oviedo in the wings…and possibly Barco too. Also, just moving one of Ortiz/Falter to the pen doesn’t eliminate them as depth options either.