10 Observations: Reinold Navarro velocity, Konnor Griffin defense, Draft picks not playing

A look back at the previous week in the Pirates' system.

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Murphy 5/5: Talked to a scout about left-handed pitcher Reinold Navarro, who pitched on Monday at the Complex. He mentioned the fastball sat around 94-96, and topped right under 98. Not bad for an 18-year-old left-handed pitcher who was making his debut stateside.

Murphy 5/5: In a span of a couple of days, I have already seen Wyatt Sanford plunked four times, and then foul another off his foot. Tough kid, was frustrated after getting hit the first time on Monday.

Don’t blame him.

Murphy 5/6: I was super high on Bryce Rainer during the draft process. I didn’t see as much Konnor Griffin stuff until late in the year, but they were both inside my top five for the 2025 draft.

Rainer has been smoking the ball through the games this week. Bradenton pitchers really having a tough time getting him out. Almost everything is being smoked, and he’s playing some fantastic defense.

It’s not going to shock me in the least if Rainer and Griffin are the two best players to come out this draft.

Murphy 5/7: That was perhaps one of the worst final lines I’ve seen from Connor Wietgrefe, but I still love the stuff, just maybe not as a starter. If a push to Altoona happens this year, I’d like it to be as a multi-inning guy out of the bullpen.

I haven’t given up on Anthony Solometo yet, but Wietgrefe reminds me of him, except with the fastball shape. I would like to see him get pushed by the end of the season, too.

Murphy 5/7: The home run numbers don’t exactly pop, but man, when Keiner Delgado gets into one, it goes. He may be a candidate to go only left-handed at the plate. The Pirates had Jesus Castillo stop switch-hitting, and I think Delgado could be next. I love the swing from the left side, but the splits are pretty eye-popping.

WTM 5/8: A number of hitters at the lower levels of the system are showing progress this year. How much that means isn’t always easy to say. It could be a product of repeating levels and being a bit old for the level. I’ve seen plenty of guys in recent times, though, stuck at the lower levels for years while making no progress at all, so this is something of a change.

One such player recently has been Eddy Rodriguez. He was a solid all-around hitter in three years of rookie-level ball, with good BB:K ratios. Last year, after getting off to a good start at Bradenton, he totally stopped hitting, finishing with a .612 OPS. That included very little power, which will matter for him as he’s strictly a 1B/OF.

This year, Rodriguez looked somewhat similar in April, although a bit better, but still without much power. He had only three extra-base hits in 67 plate appearances. Since the start of May, though, he has five extra base hits, including his first two home runs, in 17 plate appearances. (All numbers are through May 7.). Overall, he’s hitting .250/.367/.421 in a league that averages .229/.337/.346. At 34%, his K rate will have to come down, and he’s 22, a little old for the level. But it’s meaningful progress.

Murphy 5/8: I get a lot of questions about Konnor Griffin and where he might land defensively. After seeing him at shortstop for a week, if he’s a center fielder, it won’t be because he can’t hang in the dirt.

I don’t think it’s as much if he can or can’t play shortstop, but finding a position where you get more value. I’m still in a camp that he can be an average to above-average shortstop, but a plus to plus-plus center fielder.

With the recent history of shortstop in Pittsburgh, I think even just average would be a noticeable improvement.

Murphy 5/9: The Pirates’ depth regarding the infielders at Bradenton may have created something out of it. Carlos Caro looked very natural in center field, and with his speed and contact ability, that seems like a fit. Still needs to hit, but I think him in center field can be very interesting.

WTM 5/10: The FCL Pirates have a pretty strange roster situation. They look a bit short of pitching, something we’ve talked about here in the context of pitchers having to be pushed up to Bradenton mainly out of need. But the rookie-level squad is overloaded with outfielders. There are seven on the roster, and not much room at DH because the team has three catchers who should get regular playing time.

The result is that three outfielders — Andrew Patrick, Ian Farrow, and Eduardo Oviedo — have yet to see game action. It’s not that the wrong players are playing. Edward Florentino, Cristian Jauregui, and Estuar Suero probably have the highest ceilings, so they’re playing regularly. Carl Calixte, a signee from Haiti, didn’t play in the first few games but seems to be earning playing time now.

Patrick and Oviedo likely have created their own situations. A late-round college draftee last year, Patrick was sent down after going 1-for-24 with 12 strikeouts for Bradenton earlier this year. Oviedo was a prominent international signing in January 2022, but he fanned in over half his plate appearances last year in the FCL. Farrow, another late-round college draftee, has yet to make his pro debut and isn’t hurt. Given that the more promising players are playing, there isn’t much to be done about it, but it seems like an unhappy situation.

WTM 5/10: Even in the wake of Derek Shelton’s overdue firing, Ben Cherington has continued to whine about the team’s hitters not producing as expected based on their batted ball data. Ironically, you know whose hitting production clearly does closely resemble their batted ball data? Yep, the two free agents Cherington was heavily criticized, at least by hardcore fans, for signing: Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham. Their Statcast data is easily the worst among the team’s hitters.

Through May 9, Frazier ranked in the 5th percentile for xwOBA, 22nd for xBA, and 3rd for xSLG. He also ranked in the 2nd percentile for average exit velocity, 1st for barrel % and 1st for hard-hit %. Pham ranked in the 3rd percentile for xwOBA, 6th for xBA, and 2nd for xSLG. Seven of his 19 hits have been of the infield variety, and he’s hitting infield popups at a rate nearly triple the MLB norm. By Cherington’s own reasoning, there’s no way to justify continuing to play these two.

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