I think he was quoted as saying something along the lines that he likes to play CF when he’s struggling with the bat because it comes more naturally to him and he has to think less. There’s probably some intangible value in that.
I’d like his tools and development to lead him to his optimal spot, and all things being equal, SS would provide more value, but I can’t argue with AM’s current read of things.
BA's mock draft 3.0 is up. Finally got off Carlson for the Pirates -- he goes 10. Now it's Eli Willits. There are a couple little bits of actual info in the writeup:
"If Willits gets this far down the board, he shouldn’t last much longer, and I think the Pirates are one of the teams really on him. Any of the college pitchers available should be in play based purely on talent. The Pirates have done a great job developing arms but might want to continue adding bats to the system. Pittsburgh gets linked to a lot of intriguing sleeper-type prep hitters for some of their later picks."
Hard for me to think the Pirates will again pick a HS Shortstop. With Konnor Griffin as our 1-9 last year and doing very well at BRD, that alone should be enough reason not to pick another this year. Add the Lefty HS bats of Shortstops Wyatt Sanford in the second Round and Eddie Rynders in the 4th Round last year, and our dance card at SS could be full just with them 3 HS Draftees in 2024. Add that 6'6" Javier Rivas has found a bat that works for him at A+, and that Jack Brannigan is doing well at AA, while YDLS alternates with Griffin at SS in BRD, and that constitutes a major traffic jam in the MI.
Thanks for the Video from Pirate City of Eddie Rynders - what other positions does he play, because the bat speed and power from the Left Side should make him somebody we want to put on a fasttrack. I also noted that the field he was playing on is 410' in CF, so no cheapies on that field!
Willits, Hernandez, Schoolcraft, or JoJo Parker (as long as they take Jacob later, to get the Parker Brothers in the year of the Cobra's HOF induction) at pick 6.
Pick 50, college bat with some power and athleticism. (Neville, Williams types)
CompB Hartshorn or Taitn Gray
Round 3 Taitn Grey or Hartshorn
Round 4 college power bat (Jones, Thach types)
Round 5 on college arms with +stuff that they can teach some control.
Side issue but since we are all excited by Griffin…I was looking at Fangraphs, a site I like quite a bit overall, but the numbers they attach to present and future make little sense to me. They have Konnor at a 20 for hitting AND game power. What could those numbers even mean unless every high school guy is going to be a given a 20 until proven otherwise? Here is a 19 year old hitting quite well in full season ball, with power, and they think he is a 20 in 2 categories? I realize it is just opinion, but it makes me doubt any number they put on anyone. Thoughts?
"What could those numbers even mean unless every high school guy is going to be a given a 20 until proven otherwise?"
This happens to essentially be the exact reason Longenhagen gives.
Remember, you're looking at a *present* big league hit tool.
Yes, for all intents and purposes, every 18 yo kid is gonna produce a 20 or 30-grade big league hit tool if thrown into the lion's den. Scouts who think otherwise have no idea what they're looking at.
Griffin would do well to strike out in less than half his attempts right now.
for hit i agree but I suppose the response would be that you scout all 5 and many if not all of the others aren't pegged at that end, as you see with Griffin (present 55 raw / 70 speed).
Hitting is hard, hitting major league secondaries are damn near impossible for prep players. Not to many players make it to the majors before they can legally drink.
I’m certainly not sure if I’m interpreting this correctly, but I look at the gaps between the present and future tools (20 and 45 for Griffins hit tools), and I see the latter number as a fully baked number. As in, at his maturity, he’s a 45 hitter. If you compare him with someone much closer to the bigs (Yorke), the gap is much smaller.
Thanks for linking. I had read it a few years ago but the more I have observed the rankings the less sense it has made. I guess it makes some sense for college guys who are further along in age and development.
I could be wrong, but I think those numbers are based on pre-season reports, before he'd ever played a pro game. Based on what we've seen so far, his in-game hit has to be at least a 35 and power a 45.
One note on the comparison between Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer: Griffin is almost 10 months younger than is Rainer, which at that age could be a significant factor as they mature.
Thanks, Wilbur, for the analysis of Pham's and Frazier's underlying numbers. (Hard to disagree with that -- although Frazier wasn't acquired to be a starter. Pham, not so much -- and it appears Canario has MAYBE started to replace Pham as a starter.)
BC has never said WHICH players were "so-far, unlucky," based on their pitch selection, swing decisions, exit velocities, etc. -- this is why. (BTW, it is [basic] follow-up information like this that I can't find at DK's site, and that I criticize him for.) Thank you.
Secondly, on the "possible" improvement of some lower-level hitters (and I understand the caveats), could it be a result of BC changing some staff (and drafting habits?) on the hitting side "over the past 12-24 months," I think he said to the P-G?
What "hitting staff/instructors" have been hired? Who was replaced? Do you think it is a "change" that might be bearing some fruit?
Certainly hopeful that they've made some changes. BC actually saying, cautiously, that they have to improve in the hitting area and have taken steps to do that, is an improvement over his usual "all is well" mantra.
Yes, that is a mini-step forward (for BC to even say that).
I was about to correct what I said above. BC mentioned the "new hires on the hitting side" on his Sunday radio show. And, I'm pretty sure I had heard him (or saw him quoted) saying that before -- I'm not sure where. In both places, iirc, he used the "in the last 12-24 months" language. Any idea who he is talking about?
Also, I posted elsewhere that I had read somewhere (maybe HERE) that some feel BC changed his draft strategy in drafting Konnor Griffin (and, iirc, Wyatt Sanford?). Do you agree with that? If so, might it bode well for the future, if there IS a future for BC?
Three prep hitters early was a big change. Still should take the best player available, but how you feel about, say, prep hitters can impact how you determine BPA, especially after round one.
There WAS a comment in BA’s mock 3.0 about the Pirates supposedly looking at prep hitters for later in the draft. Not gonna develop hitters without drafting them and college bats is supposed to be a weak category this year.
So far, Sanford doesn’t look good at the plate. I don’t like his setup. Very wide stance that seems like it’d keep him from involving his lower half. Lots of hand movement.
If Griffin becomes a top 50 prospect, he’ll play wherever his tools dictate. There will be outside considerations, I guess, depending on what other prospects and young players are showing in CF and SS, but if Griffin is as good as we all hope, Sandford or someone like you mention won’t have a lick of impact on where Griffin plays unless they, too, are a similar level of prospect.
I might not have said it clearly and was to narrow with shortstop. Griffin has already shown defensively that he can play on the dirt and the grass, his ultimate position will be determined by how others hit around him. Here's an optimistic example.
Rivas has a real breakout and is looking good at short at the end of '26, while Cruz progressed to an elite centerfielder at that time. Buy the time the '27 season starts Griffin is knocking on the door to the majors. The only position open at the big league level is left field. Griffin shows true versatility, even if he's as good a shortstop or centerfielder than the player ahead of him, it's their bats that will determine (and his bat) where and when he will play. That's more a credit to him than knocking the others.
Yep, A-Rod moved to third even though he was the better shortstop compared to Jeter. Just get your best players on the field that gives you the best chance to win.
Speaking of expected stats for hitters, somebody talk me off the ledge with Bryan Reynolds.
How about moving him out of the 2 hole until he remembers how to hit again? 5 hole?
…he’s playing hurt?
If he is, he should let someone know. He is not doing himself or anyone any favors.
Murph's read on Griffin's defense is pretty much exactly what I've read from the "national" guys projecting in in center.
I haven't seen anyone say he can't play short, just that his tools scream no-doubt centerfielder.
I think he was quoted as saying something along the lines that he likes to play CF when he’s struggling with the bat because it comes more naturally to him and he has to think less. There’s probably some intangible value in that.
I’d like his tools and development to lead him to his optimal spot, and all things being equal, SS would provide more value, but I can’t argue with AM’s current read of things.
Good take, I appreciate that.
Maybe I'm projecting, but I'm wondering how coincidental it's been that Oneil's offensive breakout has correlated with his move from SS to CF...
BA's mock draft 3.0 is up. Finally got off Carlson for the Pirates -- he goes 10. Now it's Eli Willits. There are a couple little bits of actual info in the writeup:
"If Willits gets this far down the board, he shouldn’t last much longer, and I think the Pirates are one of the teams really on him. Any of the college pitchers available should be in play based purely on talent. The Pirates have done a great job developing arms but might want to continue adding bats to the system. Pittsburgh gets linked to a lot of intriguing sleeper-type prep hitters for some of their later picks."
Hard for me to think the Pirates will again pick a HS Shortstop. With Konnor Griffin as our 1-9 last year and doing very well at BRD, that alone should be enough reason not to pick another this year. Add the Lefty HS bats of Shortstops Wyatt Sanford in the second Round and Eddie Rynders in the 4th Round last year, and our dance card at SS could be full just with them 3 HS Draftees in 2024. Add that 6'6" Javier Rivas has found a bat that works for him at A+, and that Jack Brannigan is doing well at AA, while YDLS alternates with Griffin at SS in BRD, and that constitutes a major traffic jam in the MI.
Thanks for the Video from Pirate City of Eddie Rynders - what other positions does he play, because the bat speed and power from the Left Side should make him somebody we want to put on a fasttrack. I also noted that the field he was playing on is 410' in CF, so no cheapies on that field!
I want Jace
I want Jace
more prep hittters you say?
nods.gif
Willits, Hernandez, Schoolcraft, or JoJo Parker (as long as they take Jacob later, to get the Parker Brothers in the year of the Cobra's HOF induction) at pick 6.
Pick 50, college bat with some power and athleticism. (Neville, Williams types)
CompB Hartshorn or Taitn Gray
Round 3 Taitn Grey or Hartshorn
Round 4 college power bat (Jones, Thach types)
Round 5 on college arms with +stuff that they can teach some control.
Side issue but since we are all excited by Griffin…I was looking at Fangraphs, a site I like quite a bit overall, but the numbers they attach to present and future make little sense to me. They have Konnor at a 20 for hitting AND game power. What could those numbers even mean unless every high school guy is going to be a given a 20 until proven otherwise? Here is a 19 year old hitting quite well in full season ball, with power, and they think he is a 20 in 2 categories? I realize it is just opinion, but it makes me doubt any number they put on anyone. Thoughts?
"What could those numbers even mean unless every high school guy is going to be a given a 20 until proven otherwise?"
This happens to essentially be the exact reason Longenhagen gives.
Remember, you're looking at a *present* big league hit tool.
Yes, for all intents and purposes, every 18 yo kid is gonna produce a 20 or 30-grade big league hit tool if thrown into the lion's den. Scouts who think otherwise have no idea what they're looking at.
Griffin would do well to strike out in less than half his attempts right now.
Ok that makes sense but then why give an initial grade at all? (Rhetorical question) To me it is just wasted print.
for hit i agree but I suppose the response would be that you scout all 5 and many if not all of the others aren't pegged at that end, as you see with Griffin (present 55 raw / 70 speed).
Hitting is hard, hitting major league secondaries are damn near impossible for prep players. Not to many players make it to the majors before they can legally drink.
A couple of things: they don’t often revisit tool grades with great frequency during the season for several reasons.
As for their methodology, there are several linked articles that explains it. This is one of them, which is linked in every prospect list preamble.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/
I’m certainly not sure if I’m interpreting this correctly, but I look at the gaps between the present and future tools (20 and 45 for Griffins hit tools), and I see the latter number as a fully baked number. As in, at his maturity, he’s a 45 hitter. If you compare him with someone much closer to the bigs (Yorke), the gap is much smaller.
Thanks for linking. I had read it a few years ago but the more I have observed the rankings the less sense it has made. I guess it makes some sense for college guys who are further along in age and development.
I could be wrong, but I think those numbers are based on pre-season reports, before he'd ever played a pro game. Based on what we've seen so far, his in-game hit has to be at least a 35 and power a 45.
Also, EL had cited specifically that he changed Griffins grades (for the better) after how he looked this spring.
One note on the comparison between Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer: Griffin is almost 10 months younger than is Rainer, which at that age could be a significant factor as they mature.
Thanks, Wilbur, for the analysis of Pham's and Frazier's underlying numbers. (Hard to disagree with that -- although Frazier wasn't acquired to be a starter. Pham, not so much -- and it appears Canario has MAYBE started to replace Pham as a starter.)
BC has never said WHICH players were "so-far, unlucky," based on their pitch selection, swing decisions, exit velocities, etc. -- this is why. (BTW, it is [basic] follow-up information like this that I can't find at DK's site, and that I criticize him for.) Thank you.
Secondly, on the "possible" improvement of some lower-level hitters (and I understand the caveats), could it be a result of BC changing some staff (and drafting habits?) on the hitting side "over the past 12-24 months," I think he said to the P-G?
What "hitting staff/instructors" have been hired? Who was replaced? Do you think it is a "change" that might be bearing some fruit?
Thanks.
smizer
Certainly hopeful that they've made some changes. BC actually saying, cautiously, that they have to improve in the hitting area and have taken steps to do that, is an improvement over his usual "all is well" mantra.
Yes, that is a mini-step forward (for BC to even say that).
I was about to correct what I said above. BC mentioned the "new hires on the hitting side" on his Sunday radio show. And, I'm pretty sure I had heard him (or saw him quoted) saying that before -- I'm not sure where. In both places, iirc, he used the "in the last 12-24 months" language. Any idea who he is talking about?
Also, I posted elsewhere that I had read somewhere (maybe HERE) that some feel BC changed his draft strategy in drafting Konnor Griffin (and, iirc, Wyatt Sanford?). Do you agree with that? If so, might it bode well for the future, if there IS a future for BC?
Thanks.
sm
Three prep hitters early was a big change. Still should take the best player available, but how you feel about, say, prep hitters can impact how you determine BPA, especially after round one.
There WAS a comment in BA’s mock 3.0 about the Pirates supposedly looking at prep hitters for later in the draft. Not gonna develop hitters without drafting them and college bats is supposed to be a weak category this year.
I normally like college hitters early, this year I think you could get similar value at pick 50 and it's not because it's a deep class.
I probably would take prep bats with the first 4 picks, with the exception of the first pick if the right pitcher was still on the board.
Sanford or any good fielding shortstops bat will determine the glove Griffin uses.
So far, Sanford doesn’t look good at the plate. I don’t like his setup. Very wide stance that seems like it’d keep him from involving his lower half. Lots of hand movement.
Disagree, respectfully.
If Griffin becomes a top 50 prospect, he’ll play wherever his tools dictate. There will be outside considerations, I guess, depending on what other prospects and young players are showing in CF and SS, but if Griffin is as good as we all hope, Sandford or someone like you mention won’t have a lick of impact on where Griffin plays unless they, too, are a similar level of prospect.
I might not have said it clearly and was to narrow with shortstop. Griffin has already shown defensively that he can play on the dirt and the grass, his ultimate position will be determined by how others hit around him. Here's an optimistic example.
Rivas has a real breakout and is looking good at short at the end of '26, while Cruz progressed to an elite centerfielder at that time. Buy the time the '27 season starts Griffin is knocking on the door to the majors. The only position open at the big league level is left field. Griffin shows true versatility, even if he's as good a shortstop or centerfielder than the player ahead of him, it's their bats that will determine (and his bat) where and when he will play. That's more a credit to him than knocking the others.
That’s fair. In my rose-colored glasses, Griffin becomes the next A-Rod. ;)
However unlikely that is, my main point was that if you have an A-Rod and a Jeremy Peña in your system, Peña is moved to 2B or traded.
Yep, A-Rod moved to third even though he was the better shortstop compared to Jeter. Just get your best players on the field that gives you the best chance to win.