Offseason article comparing stuff metrics between the FB-SL of Jared Jones and Spencer Strider.
Jones is still at least a grade of command short of Strider - likely more - but the comparison of pitch quality will help determine need for a tertiary pitch.
Slider whiff rate has *decreased* by 16% and xwOBA against has *increased* by 134 points. The league now collectively hits like stars against his best pitch.
He was a fringe prospect before the jump in stuff, and losing it now demonstrates why. No different than Roansy.
I know it is not how we should be approaching the subject of the 2024 Rotation, but the Pirates are absolutely loaded with enough quality relievers at the upper levels to plan for at least 4 or 5 starts at the beginning of the season coming from relievers. Think Keller and Oviedo and find just two others. We may have two in that grouping of Priester, Jones, Ortiz, Contreras, Kranick and then wait for 1 or 2 others to push their way into a promotion from AAA or AA.
You are correct, we should not be approaching the 2024 rotation by starting relievers from AAA or the MLB staff. It should not even be considered by the FO.
We can do it here in Sept with a 28 man roster as a means of conducting tryouts. But not in April with a 26 man to start a season that we are allegedly trying to compete.
there should only be one spot open in the 2024 opening day rotation for these dudes with "potential"
Ortiz, Priester, Contreras, Kranick
The rest join the Indy rotation with Skenes, Harrington and Jones and one of them walks the plank or joins the AAA bullpen - - maybe Skenes starts in AA while said scab gets four more weeks of mercy
Solo, Wolf and Bubba start in Altoona with Ashcraft and Cheng
Brubaker and Burrows maybe add some depth next August
Keller and Oviedo are locks but we need to acquire two starters this offseason
I am ok with VV being one of them if he is shown to be healthy but the other dude needs to be somebody substantial that puts our team up a level
would be happy to see us trade for Cantina to be that guy, him being a lefty ahn nat
I honestly don't see Kranick making it through the off-season on the 40-man. I could see a VV reunion, and would welcome it. Past that, there's what I'd hope the Pirates would do, and what the Pirates are likely to do. I'd like if they added at least one stable mid-tier starter, but chances are they'll have half a dozen or more internal options battle for the 4-5 spots.
FA - Either 1 solid, multiyear SP or 2 1 year rentals. Ideally, one of each. My dream scenario is Jordan Montgomery 5/$100 + Severino on a 1+1 bounceback deal.
Battle for the final 1/2 spots: Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Falter
I applaud Oviedo for taking on considerably more innings this year, but he is nothing more than a 4 or 5 until he can fix his fastball. It’s a well below average pitch, border lining on poor, that he throws nearly 45% of the time.
If this team wants to be competitive, they will need to do better than current Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, or Falter to slot in at 4 or 5. Ortiz is by far their worst starter; most hittable of anyone they’ve trotted out there this year.
Oviedo is 16th in the NL in ERA & 33rd across all of MLB. He’s inconsistent, but has also shown flashes of dominance. He’s a solid mid-rotation guy.
People vastly overestimate how good a 4th/5th starter is on most teams. It’s reasonable to expect improvement from all 4 of those guys, and the best 1/2 should certainly be able to hold down the last spot of the rotation & be the 1st to be replaced.
Oviedo is 60th in the MLB in xwOBA against; that’s actually pretty good for a guy without a fastball. ERA means very little in the comparative context.
The SS for Oviedo and Ortiz keeps getting bigger, and the numbers are getting worse and worse. Oviedo has potential but needs to improve his fastball. I just don’t see how he can reach his upside by just throwing a slider. Unfortunately, I think Ortiz is a lost cause. He is getting hit and getting hit hard. Not sure if that improves in shorter outings, but I’m definitely not experimenting with that in the MLB bullpen.
From my untrained eye, the biggest issue with Oviedo's fastball is command. When he's on, he's able to hit all 4 quadrants with good velo. When he's off, he's missing his spots and is consistently behind in counts and then he needs to get it over and it's grooved with less velo.
If he can ever get his command to be more consistent, he'd be more than a 4th starter. If you get into a 7-game series in the playoffs, you need that 4th starter. Would you trust Oviedo to start a playoff game?
Absolutely it's his command and not the pitch. He has a pretty good FB imo. Has had not some, but actually many dominant performances with it.......when he commands it.
Not sure if it’s command OR command AND shape, but if he does manage to improve in those areas, he has the potential to be a weak 2 or a strong 3. That’s a lot of “if’s” though…
I like a lot of this. Bru and Burrows should be back June/July. Timed with other prospects marinating, I think that provides a fairly good depth chart for reinforcements. Our choices in names may differ but Montgomery/Gray fit that type of mid-tier multiple year commitment.
What they also need to do is decide when and where to cut bait on starting for these guys and push them to the bullpen. If it’s Ortiz or Ro or both, this organization needs to make hard choices and stick with it and put guys in the best position to succeed.
Priester will almost certainly start the season in the MLB rotation. Jones almost certainly will be up next year and in the rotation. The only question is whether he will start the season in the rotation or be subject to June rule 5 seasoning. Bringing in a free agent for 3 months only to leave Jones in AAA until he is no longer rule 5 eligible seems ridiculous, since the cost of the free agent would be higher than the extra year of arbitration for Jones, but that is how the Pirates roll. As you say, Keller and Oviedo are locks.
Brubaker will be back around mid season if all goes well. So, unless you want to bring in a free agent that costs 3X what an extra year of arbitration would for Jones, you have 4 spots covered until mid-season, when you will have all 5. The Pirates are probably not ready to give up on Ortiz as starter (though they should), and both Falter and Jackson seem to be capable of handling a 5th starter roll or at least have the chance to do so until they fail (maybe around the time that Brubaker returns?).
Don't be surprised if the Pirates do nothing with the pitching in free agency. With both Sullivan and Nichols appearing to be headed for bullpen rolls in MLB, and with Jones and Priester coming along nicely as starters... Skenes, Solometo, Harrington, and Ashcraft behind them, pitching is the least concern the Pirates have going forward. They certainly should not bring in any free agent pitchers on more than a 1-year contract, which will greatly limit their options.
A lot of this is too aggressive. If Priester is in the rotation, it’s likely only because Bru and others won’t be ready at the start. It certainly isn’t on merit. While I like Jones, where do you get the idea he should get a spot in the rotation to start the season? He’s been solid, but not great at Indy.
I’m sure you’re aware the big club is allowed to go out and get a veteran starter for more than 3 months. To simply assume that everything will be taken care of by internal options within the system is folly.
With all the pitching prospects stacking up in AA, the Pirates should not be bringing in any starters on contracts of more than 1 year. The only guys willing to sign 1-year deals are guys coming off injuries or guys near the end of their careers (i.e. Rich Hill types). Any such guy is not guaranteed to better than Falter, Jackson, et al..
Bringing in a guy on a multiyear deal is risky because the Pirates would be looking to trade him down the line. What if he goes out for an extended period? Now the Pirates have 10-15 million per year tied up for 1-2 years in nothing during their competitive window, and all of this to cover a handful of starts at the beginning of the 2024 season?
From the standpoint of their focus would likely be on a Rich Hill type, then I agree to a point.
Thing is that, NOT brining in free agents stands to be extremely risky itself, and this past year is a perfect example on its own. And I'm not ready to believe they'll have magically turned a corner this off-season with every pitching prospect ready to shove at the majors.
I’ve posted this elsewhere to the fans who obsessively overvalue their own pitching prospects. Five years ago on Fangraphs, Atlanta had eight pitching prospects rated as 50 or higher: Soroka, Wright, Anderson, Gohara, Touki, Bryse Wilson (remember him?), Allard, and Wentz. Of those eight, only three (Soroka, Wright, and Anderson) have had any kind of success at the big league level, and those three have had their careers sidetracked by injury.
The point is, no pitching staff is so lucky that all of their pitching prospects will not only stay healthy, but be the most effective versions of themselves. It doesn’t work that way and it never will. Yet fans keep over estimating their own young arms and think they’ll end up with a rotation of homegrown pitchers.
I thought that the time for them to go out and get a solid SP on a multi-year deal was last year, instead of wasting 30 million on a bunch of stop-gaps position-fillers for a season in which they had no intention of being competitive. If they do go out and get an SP, I hope they either have something like how they acquired Oviedo in mind or that they trade get a youngerish guy (27-29) on a multiyear deal using some prospects to have his current team pick up salary: i.e. a guy like Logan Webb.
I just think signing some middling starter on a long-term deal as a free agent is a bad investment generally. SP, especially mid or bottom of the rotation guys, are overpriced and any such acquisition will hurt the Pirates down the line.
That time for them to go out and sign a guy to multi year deal is still here. If is if they have enough guts and if they’re as serious about winning in 2024 and beyond as they claim. Just because there are some pitching prospects of varying quality doesn’t mean they should steer clear of the market. If a guy making 15 mil a season over three years sinks the Pirates, then they shouldn’t even bother playing anymore. Especially since they have like 17 mil in contracts guaranteed after this season.
As for a guy like Webb, that’s a pipe dream. He’s seventh in fWAR since 2021 among arms. You’re likely looking at a deal that starts with Endy and Johnson.
Offseason article comparing stuff metrics between the FB-SL of Jared Jones and Spencer Strider.
Jones is still at least a grade of command short of Strider - likely more - but the comparison of pitch quality will help determine need for a tertiary pitch.
A grade shy of command AND two mustache grades shy of Strider. A lot of work for him to do still.
2nd order effects of drop in velo for Luis Ortiz:
Slider whiff rate has *decreased* by 16% and xwOBA against has *increased* by 134 points. The league now collectively hits like stars against his best pitch.
He was a fringe prospect before the jump in stuff, and losing it now demonstrates why. No different than Roansy.
Velo really, really matters.
I know it is not how we should be approaching the subject of the 2024 Rotation, but the Pirates are absolutely loaded with enough quality relievers at the upper levels to plan for at least 4 or 5 starts at the beginning of the season coming from relievers. Think Keller and Oviedo and find just two others. We may have two in that grouping of Priester, Jones, Ortiz, Contreras, Kranick and then wait for 1 or 2 others to push their way into a promotion from AAA or AA.
You are correct, we should not be approaching the 2024 rotation by starting relievers from AAA or the MLB staff. It should not even be considered by the FO.
We can do it here in Sept with a 28 man roster as a means of conducting tryouts. But not in April with a 26 man to start a season that we are allegedly trying to compete.
there should only be one spot open in the 2024 opening day rotation for these dudes with "potential"
Ortiz, Priester, Contreras, Kranick
The rest join the Indy rotation with Skenes, Harrington and Jones and one of them walks the plank or joins the AAA bullpen - - maybe Skenes starts in AA while said scab gets four more weeks of mercy
Solo, Wolf and Bubba start in Altoona with Ashcraft and Cheng
Brubaker and Burrows maybe add some depth next August
Keller and Oviedo are locks but we need to acquire two starters this offseason
I am ok with VV being one of them if he is shown to be healthy but the other dude needs to be somebody substantial that puts our team up a level
would be happy to see us trade for Cantina to be that guy, him being a lefty ahn nat
I honestly don't see Kranick making it through the off-season on the 40-man. I could see a VV reunion, and would welcome it. Past that, there's what I'd hope the Pirates would do, and what the Pirates are likely to do. I'd like if they added at least one stable mid-tier starter, but chances are they'll have half a dozen or more internal options battle for the 4-5 spots.
Here's how I see it:
Keller + Oviedo, obviously.
FA - Either 1 solid, multiyear SP or 2 1 year rentals. Ideally, one of each. My dream scenario is Jordan Montgomery 5/$100 + Severino on a 1+1 bounceback deal.
Battle for the final 1/2 spots: Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, Falter
Mid-season reinforcements:
Top Prospects - Jones, Skenes, Solometo
Returning from injury - Brubaker, Burrows
I applaud Oviedo for taking on considerably more innings this year, but he is nothing more than a 4 or 5 until he can fix his fastball. It’s a well below average pitch, border lining on poor, that he throws nearly 45% of the time.
If this team wants to be competitive, they will need to do better than current Priester, Ortiz, Contreras, or Falter to slot in at 4 or 5. Ortiz is by far their worst starter; most hittable of anyone they’ve trotted out there this year.
Oviedo is 16th in the NL in ERA & 33rd across all of MLB. He’s inconsistent, but has also shown flashes of dominance. He’s a solid mid-rotation guy.
People vastly overestimate how good a 4th/5th starter is on most teams. It’s reasonable to expect improvement from all 4 of those guys, and the best 1/2 should certainly be able to hold down the last spot of the rotation & be the 1st to be replaced.
Oviedo is 60th in the MLB in xwOBA against; that’s actually pretty good for a guy without a fastball. ERA means very little in the comparative context.
The SS for Oviedo and Ortiz keeps getting bigger, and the numbers are getting worse and worse. Oviedo has potential but needs to improve his fastball. I just don’t see how he can reach his upside by just throwing a slider. Unfortunately, I think Ortiz is a lost cause. He is getting hit and getting hit hard. Not sure if that improves in shorter outings, but I’m definitely not experimenting with that in the MLB bullpen.
Use whichever metric you prefer, 60th in MLB is basically what I was getting at - solid mid-rotation piece.
From my untrained eye, the biggest issue with Oviedo's fastball is command. When he's on, he's able to hit all 4 quadrants with good velo. When he's off, he's missing his spots and is consistently behind in counts and then he needs to get it over and it's grooved with less velo.
If he can ever get his command to be more consistent, he'd be more than a 4th starter. If you get into a 7-game series in the playoffs, you need that 4th starter. Would you trust Oviedo to start a playoff game?
Absolutely it's his command and not the pitch. He has a pretty good FB imo. Has had not some, but actually many dominant performances with it.......when he commands it.
Not sure if it’s command OR command AND shape, but if he does manage to improve in those areas, he has the potential to be a weak 2 or a strong 3. That’s a lot of “if’s” though…
I like a lot of this. Bru and Burrows should be back June/July. Timed with other prospects marinating, I think that provides a fairly good depth chart for reinforcements. Our choices in names may differ but Montgomery/Gray fit that type of mid-tier multiple year commitment.
What they also need to do is decide when and where to cut bait on starting for these guys and push them to the bullpen. If it’s Ortiz or Ro or both, this organization needs to make hard choices and stick with it and put guys in the best position to succeed.
OD 2024: Keller, Montgomery, Oviedo, Severino, Priester
EOY 2024: Keller, Montgomery, Oviedo, Skenes, Jones/Solometo
Priester will almost certainly start the season in the MLB rotation. Jones almost certainly will be up next year and in the rotation. The only question is whether he will start the season in the rotation or be subject to June rule 5 seasoning. Bringing in a free agent for 3 months only to leave Jones in AAA until he is no longer rule 5 eligible seems ridiculous, since the cost of the free agent would be higher than the extra year of arbitration for Jones, but that is how the Pirates roll. As you say, Keller and Oviedo are locks.
Brubaker will be back around mid season if all goes well. So, unless you want to bring in a free agent that costs 3X what an extra year of arbitration would for Jones, you have 4 spots covered until mid-season, when you will have all 5. The Pirates are probably not ready to give up on Ortiz as starter (though they should), and both Falter and Jackson seem to be capable of handling a 5th starter roll or at least have the chance to do so until they fail (maybe around the time that Brubaker returns?).
Don't be surprised if the Pirates do nothing with the pitching in free agency. With both Sullivan and Nichols appearing to be headed for bullpen rolls in MLB, and with Jones and Priester coming along nicely as starters... Skenes, Solometo, Harrington, and Ashcraft behind them, pitching is the least concern the Pirates have going forward. They certainly should not bring in any free agent pitchers on more than a 1-year contract, which will greatly limit their options.
Priester has done absolutely nothing to warrant a spot in next seasons rotation.
A lot of this is too aggressive. If Priester is in the rotation, it’s likely only because Bru and others won’t be ready at the start. It certainly isn’t on merit. While I like Jones, where do you get the idea he should get a spot in the rotation to start the season? He’s been solid, but not great at Indy.
I’m sure you’re aware the big club is allowed to go out and get a veteran starter for more than 3 months. To simply assume that everything will be taken care of by internal options within the system is folly.
what you describe is a recipe for another 72 win season
With all the pitching prospects stacking up in AA, the Pirates should not be bringing in any starters on contracts of more than 1 year. The only guys willing to sign 1-year deals are guys coming off injuries or guys near the end of their careers (i.e. Rich Hill types). Any such guy is not guaranteed to better than Falter, Jackson, et al..
Bringing in a guy on a multiyear deal is risky because the Pirates would be looking to trade him down the line. What if he goes out for an extended period? Now the Pirates have 10-15 million per year tied up for 1-2 years in nothing during their competitive window, and all of this to cover a handful of starts at the beginning of the 2024 season?
From the standpoint of their focus would likely be on a Rich Hill type, then I agree to a point.
Thing is that, NOT brining in free agents stands to be extremely risky itself, and this past year is a perfect example on its own. And I'm not ready to believe they'll have magically turned a corner this off-season with every pitching prospect ready to shove at the majors.
I’ve posted this elsewhere to the fans who obsessively overvalue their own pitching prospects. Five years ago on Fangraphs, Atlanta had eight pitching prospects rated as 50 or higher: Soroka, Wright, Anderson, Gohara, Touki, Bryse Wilson (remember him?), Allard, and Wentz. Of those eight, only three (Soroka, Wright, and Anderson) have had any kind of success at the big league level, and those three have had their careers sidetracked by injury.
The point is, no pitching staff is so lucky that all of their pitching prospects will not only stay healthy, but be the most effective versions of themselves. It doesn’t work that way and it never will. Yet fans keep over estimating their own young arms and think they’ll end up with a rotation of homegrown pitchers.
Bryse Wilson: 6-0, 2.66 ERA.
71 innings.
Good catch, he’s caught on as a middle reliever doing ok for Milwaukee.
I thought that the time for them to go out and get a solid SP on a multi-year deal was last year, instead of wasting 30 million on a bunch of stop-gaps position-fillers for a season in which they had no intention of being competitive. If they do go out and get an SP, I hope they either have something like how they acquired Oviedo in mind or that they trade get a youngerish guy (27-29) on a multiyear deal using some prospects to have his current team pick up salary: i.e. a guy like Logan Webb.
I just think signing some middling starter on a long-term deal as a free agent is a bad investment generally. SP, especially mid or bottom of the rotation guys, are overpriced and any such acquisition will hurt the Pirates down the line.
That time for them to go out and sign a guy to multi year deal is still here. If is if they have enough guts and if they’re as serious about winning in 2024 and beyond as they claim. Just because there are some pitching prospects of varying quality doesn’t mean they should steer clear of the market. If a guy making 15 mil a season over three years sinks the Pirates, then they shouldn’t even bother playing anymore. Especially since they have like 17 mil in contracts guaranteed after this season.
As for a guy like Webb, that’s a pipe dream. He’s seventh in fWAR since 2021 among arms. You’re likely looking at a deal that starts with Endy and Johnson.
When I'm sad, I look at former Braves Top 30 lists and it makes me feel better.
It somehow worked out for them, not so much for the A's.
Copium!
should be trading prospects for an established starter with one year left on his contract
it will take three years before Jones, Solo and maybe even Skenes are able to pitch well in the major leagues