There's almost three dates for Skenes (and Jones), two of them vague--dates for not
1. Earning a full year.
2. Qualifying for Super Two.
3. Having a realistic chance to place in top 2 of ROY.
I would hope that they'd never consider the third one, but it would be the Nutting way to do so. (With all the money in baseball, I hate that they consider the second one.)
If they're ready, I'd have no problem to have someone on the opening day roster. That being said I don't want them putting them on the 26 man until they're ready, just because they have an outside chance at ROY. I think bringing someone up to soon can be detrimental if they are young.
After we drafted Skenes and decided that he'd pitch last year, I advocated for considering him for the Opening Day roster. However, when his innings were then so limited, I decided it would be best for them to wait to ensure he's adjusted to the professional schedule (no matter how he does in ST).
Next year, though, it might be realistic that at least one of Johnson, Chandler, Solo,
and/or Harrington have that opportunity, especially if they debut in September as Carter did this year.
Jared Jones had only 2 years of work in the Minors for the Pirates before 2023. In 2021 and 2022 he made 41 Starts at A/A+ 188 IP. He started 25 games 126 IP in 2023 at AA/AAA and 17 of those starts took place while he was still only 21 years old.
Jones was Excellent in AA - 10 Starts, 2.23 ERA, and struggled "more" in AAA 15 Starts 82 IP, 4.78 ERA. I'm encouraged by the average of 5.5 IP/Start at AAA, and he had to be tiring towards the end of the season.
If he shows well in ST, I'd have no problem with him making the final 26 to start the season. I think we will experience at least one Bullpen game for every 5 games - Mlodzinski and Jones would be a nice pairing. Ortiz could also be paired with one of the other SP's or long relief pitchers as a second Bullpen game pairing.
Pitchers with options who are borderline start in the minors, while borderline guys without options start in the majors. This is the only way to keep the pitching depth necessary to complete a 162-game season. Jones will start will AAA. There is almost no doubt about this... like Arky says.
This ain’t gonna happen no matter how much you keep trying to speak it into existence. The only way Jones makes the opening 26 is if they get hammered with injuries in the spring.
Unless Jones has unbelievable command in spring training, he should probably start in Indy.
I wouldn't bring him up until the fastball and secondary pitches can be located consistently even if he is pitching well. His stuff has shown he can get minor league guys out. When the command comes bring him up, if not I'd hold off for just a cup at the end of the year.
Most likely he will be brought up out of necessity do to a lack of starters at the mlb level, much like Priester last year.
Seems to me if a player is eligible for ROY award, and has ever been on 2 of 3 lists, the team/player should be able to earn the incentive. It appears there’s a hole in the formula based on the different ways MLB and the 3 list providers determine rookie status.
I agree. I don't see why he would want any FA years bought out if he wants to even slightly bet on himself given what contracts may look like by the time he reaches that point. Buying out arb years is really move of a gamble for the team vs. player. It spreads the money more but if he is hurt or doesn't pan out, team loses. If he succeeds or even stars his earnings are still capped some (last 2 years of arb of course would be very high in that scenario).
I think he'd take it. Take 2 final year arbitration pitchers this year Burnes and Bieber, they are both under $15 million. They each have a CYA and other top CYA finishes.
By giving him 8 years $85 million guaranteed it opens up an option for years 9 and 10 (say $25 million each). The total contract could be 10 years for $125 million or 8 years $85 million with $10 million being a buyout of years 9 and 10.
Let's say they wait until super 2 passes before bringing him up, that would give him 4 years of pre-arb and 3 years of arbitration. He would have to preform very well to get $50 million in those 7 years. Going 10 for $125 million is high but could entice him to sign.
I don’t think those contracts are likely to be signed for pitchers drafted that high. You can say it’s a good idea and I don’t disagree with you to give it a shot. But I dunno how likely it is that Skenes signs it.
Carlos Santana to Twins, which is fine.
peculiar as they have been reported to be looking for right handed hitters
time is right for trading Connor Joe for Alex Kirilloff
Ortiz might be a good change of scenery guy that might get us a little extra.
would be fun to take Buxton if they paid the bill
Maybe a dip in the confluence off the gateway clipper can be the fountain of health for the oft injured Twins.
cheers to the clowns aboard the good ship lollipop and rhem yuppy 5am stanks off a donzis yaght
Austin Martin might be fun to trade for Nick Gonzalez
Don't know about Martin, his exit velocities are Alika like. Solid defense and versatility though.
Might be a good time to call the Twins about that kid from Plum.
There's almost three dates for Skenes (and Jones), two of them vague--dates for not
1. Earning a full year.
2. Qualifying for Super Two.
3. Having a realistic chance to place in top 2 of ROY.
I would hope that they'd never consider the third one, but it would be the Nutting way to do so. (With all the money in baseball, I hate that they consider the second one.)
If they're ready, I'd have no problem to have someone on the opening day roster. That being said I don't want them putting them on the 26 man until they're ready, just because they have an outside chance at ROY. I think bringing someone up to soon can be detrimental if they are young.
After we drafted Skenes and decided that he'd pitch last year, I advocated for considering him for the Opening Day roster. However, when his innings were then so limited, I decided it would be best for them to wait to ensure he's adjusted to the professional schedule (no matter how he does in ST).
Next year, though, it might be realistic that at least one of Johnson, Chandler, Solo,
and/or Harrington have that opportunity, especially if they debut in September as Carter did this year.
Great stuff Ethan!
you could say Jared Jones might make some sense, but he didn't light it up in Indy last year.
Jared Jones had only 2 years of work in the Minors for the Pirates before 2023. In 2021 and 2022 he made 41 Starts at A/A+ 188 IP. He started 25 games 126 IP in 2023 at AA/AAA and 17 of those starts took place while he was still only 21 years old.
Jones was Excellent in AA - 10 Starts, 2.23 ERA, and struggled "more" in AAA 15 Starts 82 IP, 4.78 ERA. I'm encouraged by the average of 5.5 IP/Start at AAA, and he had to be tiring towards the end of the season.
If he shows well in ST, I'd have no problem with him making the final 26 to start the season. I think we will experience at least one Bullpen game for every 5 games - Mlodzinski and Jones would be a nice pairing. Ortiz could also be paired with one of the other SP's or long relief pitchers as a second Bullpen game pairing.
Nothing to be gained by keeping Jones in AAA.
Pitchers with options who are borderline start in the minors, while borderline guys without options start in the majors. This is the only way to keep the pitching depth necessary to complete a 162-game season. Jones will start will AAA. There is almost no doubt about this... like Arky says.
And it’s not like the guy is 100% ready to begin with. See if he can refine that control some more.
This ain’t gonna happen no matter how much you keep trying to speak it into existence. The only way Jones makes the opening 26 is if they get hammered with injuries in the spring.
Unless Jones has unbelievable command in spring training, he should probably start in Indy.
I wouldn't bring him up until the fastball and secondary pitches can be located consistently even if he is pitching well. His stuff has shown he can get minor league guys out. When the command comes bring him up, if not I'd hold off for just a cup at the end of the year.
Most likely he will be brought up out of necessity do to a lack of starters at the mlb level, much like Priester last year.
Seems to me if a player is eligible for ROY award, and has ever been on 2 of 3 lists, the team/player should be able to earn the incentive. It appears there’s a hole in the formula based on the different ways MLB and the 3 list providers determine rookie status.
Is it that hard to standardize it?
They might as well extend Skenes now for 8 years $85 million (kinda joking, kinda serious). Great article Ethan!
Definitely serious, not joking
They absolutely should. Might take more to buy out the arb years, and I doubt they'll get to fa years but it'll be cool if they could.
They should
I agree. I don't see why he would want any FA years bought out if he wants to even slightly bet on himself given what contracts may look like by the time he reaches that point. Buying out arb years is really move of a gamble for the team vs. player. It spreads the money more but if he is hurt or doesn't pan out, team loses. If he succeeds or even stars his earnings are still capped some (last 2 years of arb of course would be very high in that scenario).
I think he'd take it. Take 2 final year arbitration pitchers this year Burnes and Bieber, they are both under $15 million. They each have a CYA and other top CYA finishes.
By giving him 8 years $85 million guaranteed it opens up an option for years 9 and 10 (say $25 million each). The total contract could be 10 years for $125 million or 8 years $85 million with $10 million being a buyout of years 9 and 10.
Let's say they wait until super 2 passes before bringing him up, that would give him 4 years of pre-arb and 3 years of arbitration. He would have to preform very well to get $50 million in those 7 years. Going 10 for $125 million is high but could entice him to sign.
I don’t think those contracts are likely to be signed for pitchers drafted that high. You can say it’s a good idea and I don’t disagree with you to give it a shot. But I dunno how likely it is that Skenes signs it.