Ben to Bob, "Tellez hit more homeruns than Hoskins the last 2 seasons combined! We got Tellez for 3.2 million. They're paying Hoskins 34 million for 2 years and they let him have an opt-out!"
What choice did they have after all the Pirates stole Tellez away from them didn’t they?
Ba-dum-ch!
But seriously folks…I wanted the Pirates to sign Hoskins but $17 million a year for a first baseman was never gonna happen in Pittsburgh. Market size don’t ya know? Oh, wait Pittsburgh is the 28th largest market and Milwaukee’s 38th you say? How can that be? We all know the Pirates can’t compete with other MLB teams because of their market size. It couldn’t be that Nutting and the media types who spread that rubbish haven’t been telling the truth could it? Why on earth would they lie or more to the point why does anyone believe them?
Gate receipts in Milwaukee are nearly double that in Pittsburgh when you you consider attendance and ticket prices are about 50% and 30% higher, respectively. This does not include an additional $20m the Brewers collect in parking revenues. In total, the estimated difference is around $55m to $60m. Now, subtract that from the Brewers’ payroll of $138m and you get $78m to $83m, right in line with the Pirates.
This is about revenue generation. Everyone thinks they don’t need attendance bc of revenue sharing money, but it is actually very important for small market clubs if they want to maximize payroll.
Bucs have been in on and missed several FA pitchers as the market rages out of control.
I question whether a $30 M pitcher who averages less than six innings per start is worth more in real terms than a bunch of guys who can get 6-9 outs reliably.
I think the Pirates are being forced by the market to use the farm and develop these young pitchers, thus loading the franchise with big money talent grown right here at home. The value of someone like a Solomento, Harrington, or Skenes is multiplied to the franchise bc they will likely BE that $30 M pitcher at a 1970s pay grade.
This would be the market inefficiency in MoneyBall terms. The idea that practically no player is actually worth $30 M is the inefficiency.
You are going to see a rotation of nobodies this season with an army of arms rotating through that pen.
The market has surpassed itself. Nobody is worth the money they're throwing around now. And no player is THAT much more valuable than league average. The difference is that if the Dodgers bring out their best lineup for one game against our best lineup, that gap in quality might as well be the Grand Canyon.
It sometimes feels we deliberately target the worst possible options for our roles (Chapman was a welcome change of pace from this; Tellez, not so much). Is that so if they have a good season, management can be praised as geniuses for picking random scrap heap guy, or is it because we don’t actually want to be a good team?
He threw a bullpen session with 16 teams in attendance. Supposedly it went well and the scouts for most of the teams walked away impressed. His 2-seamer was sitting at 93-95 with pretty good vertical movement. He is hoping to complete a transition to a pitch to contact type guy. I think the Pirates could do worse if they are looking for a bounce-back option.
The Padres are interested and though he likes living and playing in California, I suspect that he may go with Pittsburgh. First of all, the taxes, and secondly he may think that he will have a longer leash and more opportunities in Pittsburgh. No one is going to give him much more than the league minimum, so it will not be a question of salary, I don't think.
An addition like Chapman should make everyone in the pen better by spreading out the workload. For example, I felt like Shelton relied too heavily on Bednar in '22 (which likely contributed to him missing August) and rode him pretty heavily last year too (which may have contributed to his August struggles, though he did recover to have a good September).
That's my concern, you have a really good bullpen down the line so don't overuse Bednar or Chapman. Hopefully the offense will not run into so many outs this season and the defense will quit giving the other team those extra outs. But I haven't really seen any improvement under Shelton in any areas of fundamental baseball during his time here.
Not sure I do anything more unless it is to spend cash. Trading our cache of SP's at this point would not be beneficial to get a short-term pitcher. Leave them all pitch in Pirate Uni's into July and see what their trade value is at that point. I hear Harrington's name mentioned and he is one of the guys I would not trade right now - first year and he posts excellent numbers at A and then at A+ he is 3-5, 3.87 ERA in 18 Starts, 88 IP, 106K/29BB, 10.8/3.0 K/BB/9. He goes to AA and puts up some positive numbers and he becomes a much better trade chip, or somebody we want to build with - he could easily be a solid #3 in a Rotation.
What this signing says to the fanbase more than anything is that they are actually trying to win. First time I’ve actually felt that way in a very long time.
Glad you’re feeling more hopeful, but that’s not what I hear, even though that’s what the Pirates want. Is this the other 50% Cherington was talking about? If so, it’s not nearly enough. The fact that it’s Chapman makes it sound good, but they need to do way more than signing one relieve pitcher regardless of what his name is to show they’re trying to win.
They need starting pitchers, an outfielder and a first baseman far more than they needed a set up man in the bull pen. For me it just looks like another one year contract for a veteran on the down side of his career with the intention of trading him at the deadline. Does this signing make it more or less likely they might actually sign a quality player to a multi year deal? I’ll start believing they’re trying to win if and when they do that but this alone is just more of the same.
I like this signing if it's part of a bigger plan, otherwise it makes no sense to spend $10.5 to fill 55 innings of a 3.xx ERA. Bullpen was definitely not their biggest need right now. So it's definitely a wait-and-see type signing. Nice to see them spend money though, as long as it's not preventing them from filling a bigger need.
I doubt there’s a bigger plan. My guess is, BC had $10M left in his teeny weeny budget and when he predictably couldn’t get a real starter for that, this was the fallback. I just can’t see Nuttin spending another $15M. The Pirates’ practice throughout his ownership has been to increase payroll in tiny annual increments that fail to keep up with inflation within the sport. That’s the only bigger plan they’ve ever had.
That being the case, this is a better outcome than BC’s normal practice of dribbling away smaller amounts on multiple marginal veterans who don’t improve the team.
At this point, we’re probably looking at a couple ultra-cheap, Marco Gonzalez types to fill out what could be the NL’s worst rotation.
To some degree, it may be who will take our money. I agree that the rotation is a bigger need, but we've missed out on several realistic options and only a few remain. So while I'd prefer that we commit $32MM for four years of Rodriguez than 1/3 of that amount for 1/4 of the years of control, I'm happy that we did something that could be impactful.
And maybe they're thinking that if they build enough depth in the pen, the team can manage a bullpen game once through the rotation until Jones, Skenes, and/or others are ready. I.e., perhaps we're seeing plan b in action. But I still expect us to sign or trade for a starter.
I think they failed to execute on one of their main objectives, which was to strengthen the rotation. There are only a few FA options left, and other teams are trying to accomplish similar goals. As it stands right now, they pivoted on their plan, and we know as much because BC said himself at the winter meetings that they were not going to add anyone significant to the bullpen. The AC signing will make the club better, but it reeks of desperation, at least until they prove me wrong, and themselves right, by pivoting back to plan A/B and actually strengthening the rotation.
To play devils advocate, having the ability to out pitch opponents in the last 4 innings of a game is more valuable than being able to out pitch them in the first 5 innings.
We’re living in a baseball world where the Cy Young winner in the NL averaged less than 6 innings a start. Having lots of “dudes” to cover the most important innings is definitely a more valuable roster asset than having a bunch of “dudes” covering the least important innings.
I don't think there's a thing such as least important innings without knowing the situation of the game at the time. Chapman averages about 55 innings a season, while posting an ERA above 3.00 each of the last three seasons. Whether he does it early, middle or late, he's only playing 1/27th of the innings. A better starter will improve a lot more of the game. I'd rather get a 4.25 ERA over 180 innings vs 3.25 over 55 innings if there's a choice being made. The reason is that the replacement player covering those two spots. If the starter is being replaced by a 5.50 ERA and the reliever by a 4.00 ERA, you are making out a lot better as a team. One is giving up an extra four runs, one is allowing an extra 25
I see your point, and maybe this move is the first domino which will result in the SP you speak of. But if it doesn’t, I say having a balls out bullpen will keep the team competitive until guys like Bru, Burrows, Jones, and Skenes are able to jump start the rotation.
He was available and made his $10.5 mil salary based on what he did last year on a $3+ mil contract. If he stays on track, he could return a very good prospect or two at the trade deadline. Excellent gamble, and with 6 Saves and 20 Holds last year, he serves a valuable niche in the Pirates BP.
The Pirates have enough talent to make things uncomfortable in the NL Central. We would have to bank on big years from Cruz, Reynolds, Suwinski, and Hayes - if so, there's a chance!
Given the glaring deficiencies elsewhere on the roster, this move in and of itself doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I have to believe this move is a precursor to something bigger…
That being said, I’m not going to complain about finally spending money on an established big leaguer in free agency.
Right. The people who keep saying “this only makes sense if there is another move” seem to be neglecting the calendar. It’s nearly February when they made this move, not late November. This is probably it.
I was just going to make that point about the Giants. They've been spurned trying to sign some 9-figure FA's the past two winters. They were surely frustrated by the outcomes, so much so that (kinda in desperation) they signed Jordan Hicks and will try to make him a starter.
Nutting's recent comments told us that Pirates have missed on multiple FA's this winter. He even admitted there are 29 other clubs that are actually trying to get better! Never thought I'd witness those kind of comments. So yeah, I think there was just some desperation in his comments, and they just decided to push most of their chips onto the table for a flashy signing. Definitely out of character.
So there is a price to pay for deliberately tanking for years, not winning the division for 31 years, and playing it cheap for decades... color me surprised.
The Brewers are signing Rhys Hoskins. But hey, no problem, we got a 1B with 0.0 career fWAR.
Ben to Bob, "Tellez hit more homeruns than Hoskins the last 2 seasons combined! We got Tellez for 3.2 million. They're paying Hoskins 34 million for 2 years and they let him have an opt-out!"
Bob replies, "Suckers!"
What choice did they have after all the Pirates stole Tellez away from them didn’t they?
Ba-dum-ch!
But seriously folks…I wanted the Pirates to sign Hoskins but $17 million a year for a first baseman was never gonna happen in Pittsburgh. Market size don’t ya know? Oh, wait Pittsburgh is the 28th largest market and Milwaukee’s 38th you say? How can that be? We all know the Pirates can’t compete with other MLB teams because of their market size. It couldn’t be that Nutting and the media types who spread that rubbish haven’t been telling the truth could it? Why on earth would they lie or more to the point why does anyone believe them?
Gate receipts in Milwaukee are nearly double that in Pittsburgh when you you consider attendance and ticket prices are about 50% and 30% higher, respectively. This does not include an additional $20m the Brewers collect in parking revenues. In total, the estimated difference is around $55m to $60m. Now, subtract that from the Brewers’ payroll of $138m and you get $78m to $83m, right in line with the Pirates.
This is about revenue generation. Everyone thinks they don’t need attendance bc of revenue sharing money, but it is actually very important for small market clubs if they want to maximize payroll.
So . . . you maximize revenue by punting season after season after season? Great business plan.
Nutting runs the Pirates like he does his newspaper business, it’s self preservation mode at its finest.
lot of money for dude with injuries
So... lemme get this straight.
Bucs have been in on and missed several FA pitchers as the market rages out of control.
I question whether a $30 M pitcher who averages less than six innings per start is worth more in real terms than a bunch of guys who can get 6-9 outs reliably.
I think the Pirates are being forced by the market to use the farm and develop these young pitchers, thus loading the franchise with big money talent grown right here at home. The value of someone like a Solomento, Harrington, or Skenes is multiplied to the franchise bc they will likely BE that $30 M pitcher at a 1970s pay grade.
This would be the market inefficiency in MoneyBall terms. The idea that practically no player is actually worth $30 M is the inefficiency.
You are going to see a rotation of nobodies this season with an army of arms rotating through that pen.
The market has surpassed itself. Nobody is worth the money they're throwing around now. And no player is THAT much more valuable than league average. The difference is that if the Dodgers bring out their best lineup for one game against our best lineup, that gap in quality might as well be the Grand Canyon.
Pirates break .500 this year.
How can Joe Mauer go into the HOF first ballot but Don Mattingly can't get in at all?
The Cubs won the Chapman-Torres trade.
Per Robert Murray...
Pirates in on Syndergaard
FML
I'd rather they be "in" on Lorenzon. He would even be better in CF than much of what we've got!
It sometimes feels we deliberately target the worst possible options for our roles (Chapman was a welcome change of pace from this; Tellez, not so much). Is that so if they have a good season, management can be praised as geniuses for picking random scrap heap guy, or is it because we don’t actually want to be a good team?
It’s because they strictly go for the guys nobody else wants. That way they always get the lowest possible price.
He threw a bullpen session with 16 teams in attendance. Supposedly it went well and the scouts for most of the teams walked away impressed. His 2-seamer was sitting at 93-95 with pretty good vertical movement. He is hoping to complete a transition to a pitch to contact type guy. I think the Pirates could do worse if they are looking for a bounce-back option.
Very good. Do you have a link?
If he generates any other interest, the Pirates are out.
The Padres are interested and though he likes living and playing in California, I suspect that he may go with Pittsburgh. First of all, the taxes, and secondly he may think that he will have a longer leash and more opportunities in Pittsburgh. No one is going to give him much more than the league minimum, so it will not be a question of salary, I don't think.
Fuck no, would rather roll with bailey falter than that to be honest. If thats the other shoe to drop then my new optimism will once again leave
He should be looking at a MiL deal at this point.
so your saying we can afford him?
Yeah. We can afford Dock Ellis, too.
maybe Doc Medich
What’s up Doc?!?
if we´re going to the junk bin, would rather Bumgarner because he could teach Solo a thing or two
That’s one of the few pitcher I like less than Syndergaard....and I don’t like Syndergaard.
i think this is a really big deal for Bednar pitching in said October games
he sure has looked worn out in September the past few years
I would guess that the Pirates are done with FA signings, maybe a trade or an extension but that's about it for now...
An addition like Chapman should make everyone in the pen better by spreading out the workload. For example, I felt like Shelton relied too heavily on Bednar in '22 (which likely contributed to him missing August) and rode him pretty heavily last year too (which may have contributed to his August struggles, though he did recover to have a good September).
That's my concern, you have a really good bullpen down the line so don't overuse Bednar or Chapman. Hopefully the offense will not run into so many outs this season and the defense will quit giving the other team those extra outs. But I haven't really seen any improvement under Shelton in any areas of fundamental baseball during his time here.
Not sure I do anything more unless it is to spend cash. Trading our cache of SP's at this point would not be beneficial to get a short-term pitcher. Leave them all pitch in Pirate Uni's into July and see what their trade value is at that point. I hear Harrington's name mentioned and he is one of the guys I would not trade right now - first year and he posts excellent numbers at A and then at A+ he is 3-5, 3.87 ERA in 18 Starts, 88 IP, 106K/29BB, 10.8/3.0 K/BB/9. He goes to AA and puts up some positive numbers and he becomes a much better trade chip, or somebody we want to build with - he could easily be a solid #3 in a Rotation.
What this signing says to the fanbase more than anything is that they are actually trying to win. First time I’ve actually felt that way in a very long time.
Glad you’re feeling more hopeful, but that’s not what I hear, even though that’s what the Pirates want. Is this the other 50% Cherington was talking about? If so, it’s not nearly enough. The fact that it’s Chapman makes it sound good, but they need to do way more than signing one relieve pitcher regardless of what his name is to show they’re trying to win.
They need starting pitchers, an outfielder and a first baseman far more than they needed a set up man in the bull pen. For me it just looks like another one year contract for a veteran on the down side of his career with the intention of trading him at the deadline. Does this signing make it more or less likely they might actually sign a quality player to a multi year deal? I’ll start believing they’re trying to win if and when they do that but this alone is just more of the same.
That’s a reasonable take.
I like this signing if it's part of a bigger plan, otherwise it makes no sense to spend $10.5 to fill 55 innings of a 3.xx ERA. Bullpen was definitely not their biggest need right now. So it's definitely a wait-and-see type signing. Nice to see them spend money though, as long as it's not preventing them from filling a bigger need.
I doubt there’s a bigger plan. My guess is, BC had $10M left in his teeny weeny budget and when he predictably couldn’t get a real starter for that, this was the fallback. I just can’t see Nuttin spending another $15M. The Pirates’ practice throughout his ownership has been to increase payroll in tiny annual increments that fail to keep up with inflation within the sport. That’s the only bigger plan they’ve ever had.
That being the case, this is a better outcome than BC’s normal practice of dribbling away smaller amounts on multiple marginal veterans who don’t improve the team.
At this point, we’re probably looking at a couple ultra-cheap, Marco Gonzalez types to fill out what could be the NL’s worst rotation.
Would you rather have signed Jack Flaherty at 1/$14?
No.
You're not getting a good starter for 10.5. But, you can get a good BP arm for that.
No... but you can get almost any starter that you want for $30 million which is what BC has spent this offseason on hopium, Tellez, and Chapman.
I agree :)
To some degree, it may be who will take our money. I agree that the rotation is a bigger need, but we've missed out on several realistic options and only a few remain. So while I'd prefer that we commit $32MM for four years of Rodriguez than 1/3 of that amount for 1/4 of the years of control, I'm happy that we did something that could be impactful.
And maybe they're thinking that if they build enough depth in the pen, the team can manage a bullpen game once through the rotation until Jones, Skenes, and/or others are ready. I.e., perhaps we're seeing plan b in action. But I still expect us to sign or trade for a starter.
I think this is plan j or k
Our j/k plan after all of the talk about strengthening the rotation?
I think they failed to execute on one of their main objectives, which was to strengthen the rotation. There are only a few FA options left, and other teams are trying to accomplish similar goals. As it stands right now, they pivoted on their plan, and we know as much because BC said himself at the winter meetings that they were not going to add anyone significant to the bullpen. The AC signing will make the club better, but it reeks of desperation, at least until they prove me wrong, and themselves right, by pivoting back to plan A/B and actually strengthening the rotation.
If they sign Bauer, it makes a ton of sense.
Like it or not, MLB is blackballing Bauer.
I hope he sues and wins!
We’ll see how it plays out after the other open cases against him are resolved.
To play devils advocate, having the ability to out pitch opponents in the last 4 innings of a game is more valuable than being able to out pitch them in the first 5 innings.
We’re living in a baseball world where the Cy Young winner in the NL averaged less than 6 innings a start. Having lots of “dudes” to cover the most important innings is definitely a more valuable roster asset than having a bunch of “dudes” covering the least important innings.
I don't think there's a thing such as least important innings without knowing the situation of the game at the time. Chapman averages about 55 innings a season, while posting an ERA above 3.00 each of the last three seasons. Whether he does it early, middle or late, he's only playing 1/27th of the innings. A better starter will improve a lot more of the game. I'd rather get a 4.25 ERA over 180 innings vs 3.25 over 55 innings if there's a choice being made. The reason is that the replacement player covering those two spots. If the starter is being replaced by a 5.50 ERA and the reliever by a 4.00 ERA, you are making out a lot better as a team. One is giving up an extra four runs, one is allowing an extra 25
I see your point, and maybe this move is the first domino which will result in the SP you speak of. But if it doesn’t, I say having a balls out bullpen will keep the team competitive until guys like Bru, Burrows, Jones, and Skenes are able to jump start the rotation.
He was available and made his $10.5 mil salary based on what he did last year on a $3+ mil contract. If he stays on track, he could return a very good prospect or two at the trade deadline. Excellent gamble, and with 6 Saves and 20 Holds last year, he serves a valuable niche in the Pirates BP.
The Pirates have enough talent to make things uncomfortable in the NL Central. We would have to bank on big years from Cruz, Reynolds, Suwinski, and Hayes - if so, there's a chance!
Given the glaring deficiencies elsewhere on the roster, this move in and of itself doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I have to believe this move is a precursor to something bigger…
That being said, I’m not going to complain about finally spending money on an established big leaguer in free agency.
More likely the resultant of an initial plan that fell apart than the first piece of a larger plan to come, IMO.
The Giants have the capacity for a quarter billion dollar payroll and still ended up on their like 4th or 5th option before consummating a deal.
Clubs like the Pirates either settle on mid options (coughROWDYcough) or be flexible enough to adapt to the conditions they find themselves in.
Right. The people who keep saying “this only makes sense if there is another move” seem to be neglecting the calendar. It’s nearly February when they made this move, not late November. This is probably it.
I was just going to make that point about the Giants. They've been spurned trying to sign some 9-figure FA's the past two winters. They were surely frustrated by the outcomes, so much so that (kinda in desperation) they signed Jordan Hicks and will try to make him a starter.
Nutting's recent comments told us that Pirates have missed on multiple FA's this winter. He even admitted there are 29 other clubs that are actually trying to get better! Never thought I'd witness those kind of comments. So yeah, I think there was just some desperation in his comments, and they just decided to push most of their chips onto the table for a flashy signing. Definitely out of character.
So there is a price to pay for deliberately tanking for years, not winning the division for 31 years, and playing it cheap for decades... color me surprised.