Bucs on Deck 2024 MLB Mock Draft V 1.0

Who will be the top 20 picks in the upcoming draft?

The 2024 MLB draft will be in July, and with how things have gone so far, it may come down to the last minute before we know how some of the pieces are going to fall into place.

This has been one of the hardest drafts to figure out, but with the help of NolaJeffy, we took a stab at the first 20 picks.

Nola ended up with the first pick, and we alternated back and forth, giving him the Pirates pick.

If you are picking inside the top 10, generally, you don’t want to be picking for need (usually, if you are in the top 10, you have more than one need anyway).

A lot of players move around once they get to pro ball, but even then, teams do tend to favor the premium positions in the draft.

Even if you are drafted as a shortstop, it doesn’t mean that’s where you are going to play in the majors.

The best example is Jackson Merrill in San Diego. He has been a shortstop his entire life, but they told him to get some reps in the outfield during the off-season, and now he’s their starting center fielder and playing well.

In fact, the entire Padres’ lineup is filled with players who played shortstop at one point (outside of Luis Campusano, although Buster Posey was a shortstop before moving to catcher).

So, here is our initial top 20 player mock draft for the 2024 MLB Draft.

Cleveland Guardians (NolaJeffy) - Charlie Condon, OF, University of Georgia

• Feelings have been mixed on the overall quality of the draft and just how good the top of the draft is. All that said, the Redshirt Sophomore out of the University of Georgia is having quite the season. In 33 games (as of the time of this pick), Condon is slashing .468/.573/1.081, which is good for a 1.654 OPS. He has only 22 strikeouts to 28 walks. He hit 25 home runs in 2023 and should easily clear that number, sitting at 21 home runs currently to go with 44 RBI. Defensively, standing at 6’6” and 216 lbs, he’s seen similarly to how Wyatt Langford was in the 2023 draft in that he can move once he gets going, but he’s likely a better fit in the corner.

• Obviously, there is the caveat “you don’t draft for need,” but it does fit well with the Cleveland Guardians. They have Chase DeLauter in the upper minors, but they’ve struggled to find competent outfielders for quite some time and could use another.

Cincinnati Reds (Murphy) - Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, University of Florida

I could see the Reds going with Chase Burns here to add to their pitching pool, but Caglianone is so intriguing with the bat and has that rare 80-grade raw power that I don’t think they will pass him up here.

The team that takes Caglianone could also give him a chance to pitch, but ultimately, he’s a hitter at the pro level.

There is concern about his chase rate and how that will translate to the professional level, but a complete focus on hitting could help him take the right direction.

Colorado Rockies (NolaJeffy) - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

• I already mentioned MLB isn’t generally a draft-for-need league. Still, I got to thinking that with quite a few of the 2023 draft picks currently positioned in the upper minors — not to mention Langford and Schanuel already in MLB — maybe there will be a slight shift, and that leads me to mock Chase Burns to the Rockies. Their pitching is brutal, with a collection of starters who see some of the most contact in all of MLB. Burns misses a lot of bats. A lot of them. He has struck out 97 batters in 50.2 IP (17.2 K/9) and walked 15 (2.7 BB/9). Maybe the rash of pitching injuries begins scaring teams away from picking arms at the top of the draft, but Burns is a big kid with a big arm, and I think he could still see himself going early.

Oakland Athletics (Murphy) - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

I was debating doing something completely off the wall here because of, well, the Athletics. That could be the case come July, but I’m sticking to the top of the boards for now.

A tweet showed that Bazzana has struggled against off-speed pitches and will be limited to second base at the pro level, but the bat seems completely legit. At the time of this write-up, Bazzana has 39 walks to just 13 strikeouts, giving him five more home runs than punchouts.

He’s among the nation leaders in home runs and has 29 extra-base hits in 31 games played.

The Athletics don’t have much in their system, and Bazzana instantly becomes their top prospect from day one.

Chicago White Sox (NolaJeffy) - JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia

• Heading into the college season, Wetherholt was seen as the #1 prospect in the MLB draft by some outlets, but a hamstring injury in the fourth game of the season got in the way. He has shown a very advanced eye at the plate and contact ability. This was on display in his sophomore season as he only struck out 22 times while drawing 26 walks. In addition, the 5’10” and 190 lbs middle infielder has shown some pop in the bat connecting on 16 home runs in his sophomore season. Wetherholt carried these skills over to the wood-bat league in 2023, slashing .321/.406/.571 with only one strike-out and two walks in 32 plate appearances.

• JJ recently returned the first week of April, and his ability to draw walks and make contact hasn’t shown any rust. I think he should be able to regain his status through the end of the college season and find himself among the top 5 picks. I was between Nick Kurtz and Wetherholt here, as there really aren’t many hitters that play premium positions at the top of the draft, but both come with very advanced bats. I believe the White Sox go with the 2B who has been given a slim chance of being able to make it as a shortstop possibly.

Kansas City Royals (Murphy) - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M

This one was tough, the Royals have gone high school player with their first pick in two of the last three drafts, and Konnor Griffin is still sitting here available.

But I can’t pass on Montgomery any longer, and I actually debated having the Athletics select him as the ‘off the wall’ pick.

Although, with how he has played this season, it may not be that off the wall. Montgomery has done nothing but continue to answer questions about his game, as he has seen a huge jump in the power department and perhaps has an ‘80’ grade arm in the right field.

He’s a switch-hitter with above-average power from both sides and one of the better defenders in the top tier of the draft, even if it isn’t coming at a premium position.

Montgomery has All-Star potential, and I could see him getting taken a few picks higher than this.

St. Louis Cardinals (NolaJeffy) - Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep HS (MS)

• The Cardinals have taken a college player with their first-round pick the last three years: Chase Davis (2023, OF), Cooper Hjerpe (2022, LHP), and Michael McGreevy (2021, RHP). I believe they return to the prep ranks and select the highest-rated prep player in Konnor Griffin, who reclassified from the 2025 draft.

• I'd thought momentarily that maybe they'd want a (theoretically) quicker college player to majors, but they have some quality upper-level prospects, and Griffin might have the highest overall upside in the draft. He's a 6’4” 200 lbs (projected) OF with plus speed and was up to 97 on the mound, which shows his arm strength. I'm not generally big on comps, but in terms of the 2024 draft, Griffin feels like Vance Honeycutt without his known whiff issues in college.

Los Angeles Angels (Murphy) - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

It’s a good chance that whoever the Angels take here will be the first player from the class to make his major league debut, because, it’s the Angels.

Looking at those remaining, it’s easy to zero in on Nick Kurtz, who could make a really strong case to be the first overall pick. This also shows the volatility of this year’s draft, as it’s been hard to really narrow in who could go where, and this top 10 may be the hardest to predict in recent years.

The Angels do have a first baseman they recently drafted in the first round, who moved super quickly through the minors, but it will be hard to pass up on the floor/upside combination that comes with Kurtz, who, outside of Wetherholt may have the best hit tool among those in the top 10.

He started slowly, as teams refused to pitch to him, before missing about a week and a half due to an injury. Since he’s returned, he’s been on a tear, doubling up his home run total in about a week’s worth of action.

Pittsburgh Pirates (NolaJeffy) - Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State

• As mentioned, it's not a draft with a lot of premium position talent, but I think the Pirates could take a shot at the athletic and toolsy Kansas State SS. The Pirates front office, as it stands, likes versatility and toolsy kids, as well as new hire Justin Horowitz has been mentioned as being a key part in Boston Red Sox's recent drafts of selecting bats such as Micky Romero and Jarren Duran. I thought of going Vance Honeycutt with the upside of a true 5-tool CF, but there are still whiff and contact concerns.

• Kaelen has nearly as many walks (18) as strikeouts (22) and is considered an instinctual baserunner (12 steals in 14 attempts). He has the skill set to stick at short and the arm necessary to handle 3B. Questions surround whether he'll grow into more power as he progresses or settle into around 12-15.

Washington Nationals (Murphy) - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

This is the first pick that I made that was on the ‘need-based’ side so far. The next tier of hitters are mostly outfielders, and while nothing is guaranteed, the Nationals seem pretty set there with James Wodd, Dylan Crews, and even Robert Hassell III.

So, instead, I have them adding another pitcher to the system, Hagen Smith. You could make an argument he’s every bit the prospect that Chase Burns is, so there’s a chance even he jumps up in the top 5 depending on how the teams see the two.

Smith's dynamic fastball/slider combination has been among the leaders in whiff rate and strikeouts this season.

He recorded 17 strikeouts among the 18 total outs he got in a start earlier this season, which was against Oregon State, not just some random school.

Detroit Tigers (NolaJeffy) - Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake (CA)

• Two-way potential with chance to stick at SS, and up to 97 mph on the mound.

Boston Red Sox (Murphy) - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

He has a well-noted swing-and-miss issue, but the all-around tools will be enough for him to go in the top half of the first round.

San Francisco Giants (Nola) - Seaver King, SS/CF, Wake Forest

• This would be the third pick out of Wake Forest in the top 13 picks. Seaver King is highly athletic and has shown some promising contact metrics. Doesn't strike out much, but also doesn't walk.

Chicago Cubs (Murphy) - Caleb Lomavita, C, California

Catchers with above-average hit and power tools that can also stick behind the plate don’t generally last long. He’s improved each year at Cal and is batting around .350 while throwing out 35% of would-be base stealers.

Seattle Mariners (Nola) - Caleb Bonemer, SS, Okemos HS (MI)

• Seattle took prep players with their first three picks in 2023, and they continue that trend with the athletic Michigan prep SS. Strong toolsy kid.

Miami Marlins (Murphy) - Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

Had some swing-and-miss concerns going into the season that he has fully answered. Has sneaky power and the ability to use

Milwaukee Brewers (Nola) - Mike Sirota, CF, Northeastern University

• Elite chase rates. Elite defender in CF. Above average raw power. Brewers have selected out of the college ranks with their first pick since 2018, and only a pitcher once (Ethan Small - 2019).

Tampa Bay Rays (Murphy) - Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (FL)

This seems like such a Rays pick to get the super-athletic premium position playing prep player.

The Rays like to follow the ‘draft the best player first, worry about position late’ strategy when it comes to drafting and development, and it’s hard to argue with a lot of what they do sometimes.

Lindsey is one of the big risers early in the draft. There’s already talk of him playing in the outfield, and scouts note that he should be able to play shortstop as well.

New York Mets (Nola) - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina University

• The RHP has seen his stock rise as the season has gone on. Has 86 strikeouts to 17 walks in 54.1 IP.

Toronto Blue Jays (Murphy) - William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA)

The Blue Jays have gone with a prep player in their last two drafts and go so here again with perhaps the best high school pitcher available. With a mid-90s fastball and high spin 12-6 curveball, Schmidt has one of the best two-pitch combos in the draft, with a change-up he’s still working on.

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