Don’t draft for need but don’t ignore need when drafting. The Pirates have one true starting quality major league outfielder and virtually no real prospects until you get to White in high A ball. Those waiting for Suwinski to become one are wasting their time in my opinion. He’s a fourth outfielder at best on most teams and continues to play regularly simply because the Pirates have no one else who’s better. The Pirates don’t do the sign quality free agent thing and trading would require giving up more than one young pitching prospect, and I doubt BC would do that.
Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin are the prep players that have a good chance to land in the top 8 that might make one or two of the top college players slide.
I'm good with best player available at pick 9, Culpepper is in my top 13 so I don't see it as a stretch for him to go 9. I also think Smith will be hard to pass if he's available but I'd prefer a top college bat.
I agree with Griffin, while Rainer has been getting a lot of good buzz. I'm not nearly as good at judging high school hitters. If he can stick at short he might rise because the lack of college short stops.
I still think if Ryan Prager keeps pitching the way he has he could be a surprise pick in the top 15. He's had one bad start and one ok start. The rest have been very good. Only 5 walks this far into the season.
Just to show how quick things change lol when I made this pick a week ago, Culpepper was about ~15th on Joe Doyle's updated rankings, now he's 30th. I like Tibbs but thought it was a stretch, now he's #16th lol
Nola and I did talk about it afterwards and we both agreed that someone is going to slip, and that it will probably be Oakland and/or Kansas City to shake things up a bit.
It’s just so hard to figure out who is going to slip and the players everyone wants to slip (Kurtz, Montgomery) aren’t going to be the ones who slip
I’m thinking he’s probably the guy but then again, do you take the guy that’s dropping from a potential first overall pick to nearly out of top 10 because of injuries?
This weekend will tell a lot on Wetherholt, if it just tightened up or if he's out. He did start at short last night, first time he didn't DH since coming back I think. Hopefully it was precaution instead of full blown injury.
Hopefully if Kurtz or Montgomery don't slip, Jac, JJ or Konnor do although I'd _really_ like to see a college bat who could conceivably catch up to some of this pitching.
Yea I don’t see Jac slipping. But then again I feel like I say that about everyone. I know looking at the position makes it less appealing but Culpepper is a really solid bat and he’s athletic enough to move him around some too. Maybe he takes over for Triolo and Triolo slides into that super utility role.
Someone will be there. Hell, maybe even JJ Wetherholt is going to slide, he left a game early again this week (although at some point, maybe you don’t want to take him either with all the injuries)
Edit: and he does fit ur ‘catch up to the pitching’ timeframe
Great work guys. If the draft fell the way it did, I’d go for Smith. But wouldn’t be disappointed in Culpepper either.
There are a million different ways this draft can play out. From BA’s perspective (just one source), there seems to be a top level tier of eight players, and the Bucs pick ninth. It’s certainly plausible that a team or two ahead of Pgh cuts a deal, in which a player or two in that tier falls to Pgh. Hoping that happens.
Boy is that several misrepresentations in one post. He’s not “repeating” a level when he played only 30 games at high A last season. And it’s 10 games into this season. No prospect hound is going to drop a guy on any lists when we’re still in mid April.
I don't want anyone who can move around at all. Too much whiplash from this FO. I _definitely_ don't want a first round super utility player. Want a loud LHB or 3. It'd be nice to skip the up the middle guys this year and target 1B, DH, OF options in volume.
Players who are pigeon holed aren’t a great plan either. Some of these guys, especially the infielders, you’re not sure yet if they’ll be able to handle short. So they may have to move.
If there is no corner bat at 9 (there’s a good chance Condon, Kurtz, Cag are all gone), you don’t draft for need.
‘Move around’ doesn’t mean utility player. You wouldn’t want a Jackson Merrill in this system? (Obviously not saying Culpepper is Merrill) he can literally play every position except first and catcher. I’d take him over any hitting prospect in Pirates system by a long shot.
Move around means he’s not limited to one position which limits his value (Gonzales, Termarr). Those two literally have to hit to be successful while Merrill is playing solid defense in CF, which bring value on its own
I don’t think you generally ever want to take a ‘DH’ with a top 10 pick. Too much pressure on just the bat. Again, we are seeing it with Termarr and Gonzales. All pressure is on bat, without that there’s no value in them.
I'm not reacting to Culpepper in particular as much as I am to Cherington's (and Huntington's for that matter) penchant for up the middle players with positional versatility who could move down the spectrum should they need who weren't always necessarily the best bats in the draft. Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Sammy Siani, Nick Gonzales, Mitch Jebb, etc etc etc. Draft a freaking Nick Kurtz for once. Will Craig was the closest they came and what a nightmare.
Put another way, a lot of teams draft just like this^ so maybe look for some hidden value in down the defensive spectrum guys whose bats you truly buy into.
Contact and plate discipline are hard to quantify when looking at College hitters against college arms or worse high-school hitters against high-school arms. It is a best-guess approach. Speed, arm strength, ball-to-glove skills are not nearly so hard to quantify. When in doubt, you favor the known over the unknown, and most teams, not just the Pirates, will take a "toolsy" guy ahead of a bat-only guy, all other things being equal, in the first, and maybe, second round.
This is just what I as one fan hope to see. I know it's very unlikely to happen. Your mock draft seems totally feasible and I appreciate the work that went into it, btw.
Tbf, this draft I feel like has a million different ways things can fall. It’s insane. I get the want for a power hitting first baseman, it’s definitely a need, just if things fall a certain way no reason to reach.
Well... one reason (not a good one) to reach is because Cherington seems highly reluctant to trade prospects to fill positions of need and does not have a budget to fill every position with free-agents. So... they will have to "draft for need" to some extent if they refuse to trade for need.
Don’t draft for need but don’t ignore need when drafting. The Pirates have one true starting quality major league outfielder and virtually no real prospects until you get to White in high A ball. Those waiting for Suwinski to become one are wasting their time in my opinion. He’s a fourth outfielder at best on most teams and continues to play regularly simply because the Pirates have no one else who’s better. The Pirates don’t do the sign quality free agent thing and trading would require giving up more than one young pitching prospect, and I doubt BC would do that.
The Cards picking ahead of us really irks me. They should have to prove their mythical genius by picking last every year.
passing up on smith smh
Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin are the prep players that have a good chance to land in the top 8 that might make one or two of the top college players slide.
I'm good with best player available at pick 9, Culpepper is in my top 13 so I don't see it as a stretch for him to go 9. I also think Smith will be hard to pass if he's available but I'd prefer a top college bat.
I think your mock is totally plausible.
Wouldn’t mind Konnor Griffin tbh. I know a lot of fans want the fast track guy, but if he’s available he’s probably the best available
Any idea if he can, you know, hit?
I agree with Griffin, while Rainer has been getting a lot of good buzz. I'm not nearly as good at judging high school hitters. If he can stick at short he might rise because the lack of college short stops.
Funny thing is, I LOVE Rainer on the mound. But I’m a pitching guy so I guess that’s not a surprise lol
I still think if Ryan Prager keeps pitching the way he has he could be a surprise pick in the top 15. He's had one bad start and one ok start. The rest have been very good. Only 5 walks this far into the season.
Nola from the top rope to drop this one on us
Just to show how quick things change lol when I made this pick a week ago, Culpepper was about ~15th on Joe Doyle's updated rankings, now he's 30th. I like Tibbs but thought it was a stretch, now he's #16th lol
Cam Smith > Tibbs
Nola and I did talk about it afterwards and we both agreed that someone is going to slip, and that it will probably be Oakland and/or Kansas City to shake things up a bit.
It’s just so hard to figure out who is going to slip and the players everyone wants to slip (Kurtz, Montgomery) aren’t going to be the ones who slip
Wetherholt might slip if he hurt his hammy again last night, he came out of the game before his second at bat (got a hit his first at bat).
Kurtz, Montgomery and Caglianone all hit homers last night, Jac's of the 516 feet variety.
I’m thinking he’s probably the guy but then again, do you take the guy that’s dropping from a potential first overall pick to nearly out of top 10 because of injuries?
This weekend will tell a lot on Wetherholt, if it just tightened up or if he's out. He did start at short last night, first time he didn't DH since coming back I think. Hopefully it was precaution instead of full blown injury.
Holy power
Hopefully if Kurtz or Montgomery don't slip, Jac, JJ or Konnor do although I'd _really_ like to see a college bat who could conceivably catch up to some of this pitching.
Yea I don’t see Jac slipping. But then again I feel like I say that about everyone. I know looking at the position makes it less appealing but Culpepper is a really solid bat and he’s athletic enough to move him around some too. Maybe he takes over for Triolo and Triolo slides into that super utility role.
Someone will be there. Hell, maybe even JJ Wetherholt is going to slide, he left a game early again this week (although at some point, maybe you don’t want to take him either with all the injuries)
Edit: and he does fit ur ‘catch up to the pitching’ timeframe
Great work guys. If the draft fell the way it did, I’d go for Smith. But wouldn’t be disappointed in Culpepper either.
There are a million different ways this draft can play out. From BA’s perspective (just one source), there seems to be a top level tier of eight players, and the Bucs pick ninth. It’s certainly plausible that a team or two ahead of Pgh cuts a deal, in which a player or two in that tier falls to Pgh. Hoping that happens.
Also we need power in this lineup especially now that Termarr is looking like a bust.
Little early for that label on Termarr.
Repeating the level, 64 wRC+, .000 ISO. He's definitely not in the top 100 anymore.
Boy is that several misrepresentations in one post. He’s not “repeating” a level when he played only 30 games at high A last season. And it’s 10 games into this season. No prospect hound is going to drop a guy on any lists when we’re still in mid April.
I don't want anyone who can move around at all. Too much whiplash from this FO. I _definitely_ don't want a first round super utility player. Want a loud LHB or 3. It'd be nice to skip the up the middle guys this year and target 1B, DH, OF options in volume.
Players who are pigeon holed aren’t a great plan either. Some of these guys, especially the infielders, you’re not sure yet if they’ll be able to handle short. So they may have to move.
If there is no corner bat at 9 (there’s a good chance Condon, Kurtz, Cag are all gone), you don’t draft for need.
‘Move around’ doesn’t mean utility player. You wouldn’t want a Jackson Merrill in this system? (Obviously not saying Culpepper is Merrill) he can literally play every position except first and catcher. I’d take him over any hitting prospect in Pirates system by a long shot.
Move around means he’s not limited to one position which limits his value (Gonzales, Termarr). Those two literally have to hit to be successful while Merrill is playing solid defense in CF, which bring value on its own
I don’t think you generally ever want to take a ‘DH’ with a top 10 pick. Too much pressure on just the bat. Again, we are seeing it with Termarr and Gonzales. All pressure is on bat, without that there’s no value in them.
You can take the 1B/DH guys later in the draft
Langford’s the DH in Texas. Never say never.
That’s because their outfield is stacked, not because he can’t play defense though
I'm not reacting to Culpepper in particular as much as I am to Cherington's (and Huntington's for that matter) penchant for up the middle players with positional versatility who could move down the spectrum should they need who weren't always necessarily the best bats in the draft. Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Sammy Siani, Nick Gonzales, Mitch Jebb, etc etc etc. Draft a freaking Nick Kurtz for once. Will Craig was the closest they came and what a nightmare.
Put another way, a lot of teams draft just like this^ so maybe look for some hidden value in down the defensive spectrum guys whose bats you truly buy into.
Contact and plate discipline are hard to quantify when looking at College hitters against college arms or worse high-school hitters against high-school arms. It is a best-guess approach. Speed, arm strength, ball-to-glove skills are not nearly so hard to quantify. When in doubt, you favor the known over the unknown, and most teams, not just the Pirates, will take a "toolsy" guy ahead of a bat-only guy, all other things being equal, in the first, and maybe, second round.
Only two of those players you listed were actually drafted by Cherington
And you can’t draft a Nick Kurtz if there is no Nick Kurtz available.
Comp A pick or round 2 Blake Burke if available.
I'm for it. Even if he's a DH.
This is just what I as one fan hope to see. I know it's very unlikely to happen. Your mock draft seems totally feasible and I appreciate the work that went into it, btw.
Tbf, this draft I feel like has a million different ways things can fall. It’s insane. I get the want for a power hitting first baseman, it’s definitely a need, just if things fall a certain way no reason to reach.
Well... one reason (not a good one) to reach is because Cherington seems highly reluctant to trade prospects to fill positions of need and does not have a budget to fill every position with free-agents. So... they will have to "draft for need" to some extent if they refuse to trade for need.
My hope was Montgomery dropping to 1-9, but he's been too good
Me too. Pitchers need to start pitching around Kurtz again, this nibbling the edges isn't working for them now lol.
I would hate this draft if it played out like that
(deep breaths, Jeffy. They're probably coming for your head)
Ya jagoff! Just had to pick a middle infielder didn’t you! Have pitchfork and torch in hand waiting for the mob to head your way!
Been nice knowing ya buddy 😂