"People so dismissive that he's in Pittsburgh though. Shouldn't that weigh into Konnor's assessment? PIT has been a disaster scouting/developing hitters."
Clegg reply:
"I agree to an extent, but in 2023 they took just 2 hitters in the top 10 rounds and they were both basically were one tool hitters.
Termarr certainly hasn't panned, but his hit tool was way oversold. He has more power than expected and has strong plate skills.
In 2021 Davis looks like a miss, but I think its a head case thing. He mashes Triple-A pitching. Lonnie White never had a hit tool and they were banking on the power and speed upside to play and it hasn't.
Throw 2020 draft out the window, but, Gonzalez always struggled with fastballs up and they thought he could make the adjustment and he just never did.
So I see the argument, but Griffin is more talented than any of the hitters they have drafted in the last 5 years imo."
I can quibble with some of the detail (tend to think both Davis' and Gonzales's swing just don't work very well in big league ball) but overall pretty succinct.
Just thinking back to the game Davis hit 2 homers off Ohtani, Davis wasn't trying to pull everything. He hit a bit of a hanger to left, and went to right center on a upper nineties fastball. Maybe he is over thinking, too much of a game plan instead of see ball hit ball.
For some reason, the comments won't come up for me this morning. Can you give a brief overview or post a link, I'm intrigued. I know it's just one swing but Triolo should take a look and model his swing after Konnor's, might help him with his timing and power. I'm not sure Triolo has enough speed on his swing though.
37 on the current 40 man roster - 15 Pitchers, 13 Infielders almost 76%? I can understand the number of pitchers, but 13 Infielders? A closer look indicates that Oneil Cruz and Billy Cook are both listed as IF, but with the add of Spencer Horwitz in the IF, Cook will see most of his time in the OF, and Cruz is our CF. That takes it down to 11 which is still too many. Hayes, IKF, and Horwitz at 1B, and Triolo as the Utility IF.
One of the obvious decisions that will need to be made during ST is who plays 2B? Nick Gonzales would probably be the player who saw the most action at second base in 2024, but then we traded to get Nick Yorke, and Spencer Horwitz played 39 games at 2B with Toronto and did well defensively at that position and at 1B. And, we saw that Liover Peguero did well at both SS and 2B at the MLB level in 2023 when Cruz was out with the broken ankle. He had found his stroke at AA in 2023 before a few games at AAA and straight to the Pirates. If he regains it . . . ? Yes, I've skipped Williams and Tristan Gray, but Gray could be another LH bat to watch. It promises to be very interesting!
I know this issue of infielders on the 40 man bothers you but I just don't see the issue. When keeping an infielder prevents them from making another move then it potentially is an issue. For now, they see each of these players having some level of value so no need to force a roster move until that decision has to be made. I agree in will be interesting how it may play out (in particular second base), but some of these decisions will just happen when other moves require it. IMO there are still a few that could be just temporary 40 man players (Gray & Strzelecki) and I thought felt like the typical off season players that were claimed / dropped / claimed etc. until the regular season forces the musical chairs to end.
Oviedo had his TJ surgery the first week of December of 2023. With 14 months as the readily accepted earliest return, that means he will hit that 14 months the first week of February, and the second or third week is usually time for Pitchers and Catchers, so good chance he should be fully rehabbed by early reports. We need that along with Skenes, Jones, Keller, Falter. We also need for Chandler, Harrington, Ashcraft, and Burrows to look good also.
Why the need for all of them to look good? There will probably be 4-6 teams hoping to contend that will start ST with "hopeful" Rotations. And, everyone in baseball knows the Pirates have pitching to spare. Could turn out to be a good situation for the Pirates and good for a young SP to get an opportunity if the price is right.
My add: I am interested in the top 9 starters on the depth chart 4 of which I consider to be locks to be in the rotation. Some combo of these pitchers is the hope for the Skenes era IMO. ALL have questions (which I guess is true for all teams). My two examples:
Falter: The soft tossing pitcher is a dinosaur. Was he a one hit wonder or can he put together another season as a passable end of rotation starter.
Jones; Many (Media, posters, etc.) are always saying Skenes and Jones. Well, his first 1/3 of the season that would be accurate (1 walk Jones), the middle third (3 walk Jones) falls into the future back of bullpen convo, and the final third (2 walk Jones) is a real good pitcher who pitches some gems but also gives you some games he barely can get through 5. 2 walk Jones would be very acceptable to me.
I could do this for all 9 pitchers but I get paid by the post not word so I'll share those later in the off season.
I hope he isn't at some point more out of my hope for others. I think out of the gate he deserves a spot outside of an outside acquisition and Bubba going all Jones Spring training. Falter still seems like a 5 inning / hold your breath pitcher but he basically pulled that off in 2024 so let's roll him back out there. Let the swing man (Burrows or Ashcraft in my world) or somebody in AAA force him out vs. him Faltering (yea.. went there).
I could see them going with a 6 man rotation for the 1st 4 to 6 weeks. My reasoning is Skenes and Jones being gradually building to a regular work load, Oviedo coming back from TJ, Keller and Falter both wore down in the second half of '24, and to ease one of the 4 prospects in, if they earn a spot out of spring training. Strongest 5 after the 4 to 6 weeks would then be the rotation with the other being the long man out of the pen.
Still like the idea of adding a lefty if they are the clear 3 or 4 in the rotation (Q).
Fantastic list, fellas! I could riff on these all day.
Interesting, to me at least, is the fact that both Hague and Horwitz swung *less*, at both balls and strikes, than the 2024 Pirates under Andy Haines. If you read Hague's interviews, he preaches the same general philosophy as Haines and the rest of the league not named Miami (lol). It is inarguably true that whatever served an Andy Haines' overarching "philosophy" was boilerplate material in the modern game. The hard part, of course, is teaching and executing, so we'll see.
Also loved the discussion on 5th starter and '24 prep bats.
The clubs biggest weakness and opportunity for improvement remains the bullpen, IMO, not the offense, which I find convenient due to Oviedo, Burrows, and Ashcraft all having strong arguments for themselves as more impactful relievers than starters.
And I'm itching for early looks at Griffin and Sanford more than any recent bats in memory.
Lastly, I'd also add Termarr to the list of make-or-breakers. Far less so than White and Solo, I agree, but it feels like one of those development years for Termarr where the underlying skills might be set in stone moving forward...for better or worse.
What the Pirates say publicly under this FO and what they actually do have always had no connection with one another. They've always denied that they're coaching players to take excessive numbers of pitches and Shelton often talked about being more "aggressive." Yet they were 25th in swing % in the zone this year and 24th overall in swing %. Despite all that "patience," they were still only 25th in contact % and 18th in walks. Whatever the exact nature of the problem, the fact is their hitters don't have a viable approach at the plate.
I just want to see what actually happens under Hague, because what actually happened under Haines bore no relation to the "official" explanations.
I'll humbly suggest it's possible that fielding a roster of mostly shitty hitters who brought poor contact skills with them had something to do with their poor outcomes.
The only two offenses in the league who were demonstrably worse than the 2024 Pirates *also* were in the top five of most aggressive.
The common assertion that their "approach" failed due to lack of forcing mostly shitty hitters to be more aggressive seems, frankly, pretty dumb.
Problems this broad and deep don't generally have single explanations.
Obviously, personnel choices are a major issue, hence my semi-hopeful point about Horwitz. When you chronically choose guys who swing at every spherical object in the same zip code, like MAT and BDLC, it's gonna have an impact.
But the Pirates, to a large extent system-wide, have had the same skewed hitting profile for five year now. Take lots of pitches, strike out a ton, don't walk all that much, and don't hit for power.
Also, you realize your second paragraph supports me?
I'd almost be tempted to give the 5th starter to Harrington. Especially, if he comes out and shoves in spring training. He has the best command of those competing and a kid like him, there's really not more development to be done.
Oviedo is probably going to be shaky with the command...let him build up in long relief.
I've been thinking they do that with Bubba, but Harrington might be able to stretch for the full season and probably has a tad less dev left in him on account of the command you mentioned.
One more point on Oviedo...are we even sure he's better than Mike Burrows, who's even further along in his TJS recovery? Truly the forgotten one of the bunch.
Looking forward to seeing if Hague can undo what Haines has done to the Pirates hitting. Would also would like to see you do a comparison to the Miracle Mets of Seaver, Koosman, Matlack and a very young Nolan Ryan to the Pirates rotation of Skeens, Keller, Jones, Chandler, Harrington
https://x.com/ChrisCleggMiLB/status/1873756606606819737
Clegg’s reply in the comments regarding Pirate hitter draft pick struggles is also about the most clear-eyed take I’ve read.
I’m not on twitter so I can’t see this. Summary por favor?
comment:
"People so dismissive that he's in Pittsburgh though. Shouldn't that weigh into Konnor's assessment? PIT has been a disaster scouting/developing hitters."
Clegg reply:
"I agree to an extent, but in 2023 they took just 2 hitters in the top 10 rounds and they were both basically were one tool hitters.
Termarr certainly hasn't panned, but his hit tool was way oversold. He has more power than expected and has strong plate skills.
In 2021 Davis looks like a miss, but I think its a head case thing. He mashes Triple-A pitching. Lonnie White never had a hit tool and they were banking on the power and speed upside to play and it hasn't.
Throw 2020 draft out the window, but, Gonzalez always struggled with fastballs up and they thought he could make the adjustment and he just never did.
So I see the argument, but Griffin is more talented than any of the hitters they have drafted in the last 5 years imo."
I can quibble with some of the detail (tend to think both Davis' and Gonzales's swing just don't work very well in big league ball) but overall pretty succinct.
Just thinking back to the game Davis hit 2 homers off Ohtani, Davis wasn't trying to pull everything. He hit a bit of a hanger to left, and went to right center on a upper nineties fastball. Maybe he is over thinking, too much of a game plan instead of see ball hit ball.
I don't know just popped into my head.
Much obliged.
I should add -- great stuff.
For some reason, the comments won't come up for me this morning. Can you give a brief overview or post a link, I'm intrigued. I know it's just one swing but Triolo should take a look and model his swing after Konnor's, might help him with his timing and power. I'm not sure Triolo has enough speed on his swing though.
posted the full exchange in reply to Wilbur.
Thanks
Spitting image of me circa 1999
tonight we're gonna party like it's.
My man. Didn't even try to set you up for that. About to put the women and children to bed and go looking for dinner.
Not really. Just going slam more beers and pass out at 1053 in the pm and call it a night. Happy New year
37 on the current 40 man roster - 15 Pitchers, 13 Infielders almost 76%? I can understand the number of pitchers, but 13 Infielders? A closer look indicates that Oneil Cruz and Billy Cook are both listed as IF, but with the add of Spencer Horwitz in the IF, Cook will see most of his time in the OF, and Cruz is our CF. That takes it down to 11 which is still too many. Hayes, IKF, and Horwitz at 1B, and Triolo as the Utility IF.
One of the obvious decisions that will need to be made during ST is who plays 2B? Nick Gonzales would probably be the player who saw the most action at second base in 2024, but then we traded to get Nick Yorke, and Spencer Horwitz played 39 games at 2B with Toronto and did well defensively at that position and at 1B. And, we saw that Liover Peguero did well at both SS and 2B at the MLB level in 2023 when Cruz was out with the broken ankle. He had found his stroke at AA in 2023 before a few games at AAA and straight to the Pirates. If he regains it . . . ? Yes, I've skipped Williams and Tristan Gray, but Gray could be another LH bat to watch. It promises to be very interesting!
Williams and Gray and Peg will not be on the 26 man going north. Not interested in that group. Just my opinion
I know this issue of infielders on the 40 man bothers you but I just don't see the issue. When keeping an infielder prevents them from making another move then it potentially is an issue. For now, they see each of these players having some level of value so no need to force a roster move until that decision has to be made. I agree in will be interesting how it may play out (in particular second base), but some of these decisions will just happen when other moves require it. IMO there are still a few that could be just temporary 40 man players (Gray & Strzelecki) and I thought felt like the typical off season players that were claimed / dropped / claimed etc. until the regular season forces the musical chairs to end.
Oviedo had his TJ surgery the first week of December of 2023. With 14 months as the readily accepted earliest return, that means he will hit that 14 months the first week of February, and the second or third week is usually time for Pitchers and Catchers, so good chance he should be fully rehabbed by early reports. We need that along with Skenes, Jones, Keller, Falter. We also need for Chandler, Harrington, Ashcraft, and Burrows to look good also.
Why the need for all of them to look good? There will probably be 4-6 teams hoping to contend that will start ST with "hopeful" Rotations. And, everyone in baseball knows the Pirates have pitching to spare. Could turn out to be a good situation for the Pirates and good for a young SP to get an opportunity if the price is right.
My add: I am interested in the top 9 starters on the depth chart 4 of which I consider to be locks to be in the rotation. Some combo of these pitchers is the hope for the Skenes era IMO. ALL have questions (which I guess is true for all teams). My two examples:
Falter: The soft tossing pitcher is a dinosaur. Was he a one hit wonder or can he put together another season as a passable end of rotation starter.
Jones; Many (Media, posters, etc.) are always saying Skenes and Jones. Well, his first 1/3 of the season that would be accurate (1 walk Jones), the middle third (3 walk Jones) falls into the future back of bullpen convo, and the final third (2 walk Jones) is a real good pitcher who pitches some gems but also gives you some games he barely can get through 5. 2 walk Jones would be very acceptable to me.
I could do this for all 9 pitchers but I get paid by the post not word so I'll share those later in the off season.
Haha, love these.
I'd add to your Falter point that he very well just might not be one of the best 5 even if he does repeat his 2024.
I hope he isn't at some point more out of my hope for others. I think out of the gate he deserves a spot outside of an outside acquisition and Bubba going all Jones Spring training. Falter still seems like a 5 inning / hold your breath pitcher but he basically pulled that off in 2024 so let's roll him back out there. Let the swing man (Burrows or Ashcraft in my world) or somebody in AAA force him out vs. him Faltering (yea.. went there).
I could see them going with a 6 man rotation for the 1st 4 to 6 weeks. My reasoning is Skenes and Jones being gradually building to a regular work load, Oviedo coming back from TJ, Keller and Falter both wore down in the second half of '24, and to ease one of the 4 prospects in, if they earn a spot out of spring training. Strongest 5 after the 4 to 6 weeks would then be the rotation with the other being the long man out of the pen.
Still like the idea of adding a lefty if they are the clear 3 or 4 in the rotation (Q).
Fantastic list, fellas! I could riff on these all day.
Interesting, to me at least, is the fact that both Hague and Horwitz swung *less*, at both balls and strikes, than the 2024 Pirates under Andy Haines. If you read Hague's interviews, he preaches the same general philosophy as Haines and the rest of the league not named Miami (lol). It is inarguably true that whatever served an Andy Haines' overarching "philosophy" was boilerplate material in the modern game. The hard part, of course, is teaching and executing, so we'll see.
Also loved the discussion on 5th starter and '24 prep bats.
The clubs biggest weakness and opportunity for improvement remains the bullpen, IMO, not the offense, which I find convenient due to Oviedo, Burrows, and Ashcraft all having strong arguments for themselves as more impactful relievers than starters.
And I'm itching for early looks at Griffin and Sanford more than any recent bats in memory.
Lastly, I'd also add Termarr to the list of make-or-breakers. Far less so than White and Solo, I agree, but it feels like one of those development years for Termarr where the underlying skills might be set in stone moving forward...for better or worse.
What the Pirates say publicly under this FO and what they actually do have always had no connection with one another. They've always denied that they're coaching players to take excessive numbers of pitches and Shelton often talked about being more "aggressive." Yet they were 25th in swing % in the zone this year and 24th overall in swing %. Despite all that "patience," they were still only 25th in contact % and 18th in walks. Whatever the exact nature of the problem, the fact is their hitters don't have a viable approach at the plate.
I just want to see what actually happens under Hague, because what actually happened under Haines bore no relation to the "official" explanations.
I'll humbly suggest it's possible that fielding a roster of mostly shitty hitters who brought poor contact skills with them had something to do with their poor outcomes.
The only two offenses in the league who were demonstrably worse than the 2024 Pirates *also* were in the top five of most aggressive.
The common assertion that their "approach" failed due to lack of forcing mostly shitty hitters to be more aggressive seems, frankly, pretty dumb.
Problems this broad and deep don't generally have single explanations.
Obviously, personnel choices are a major issue, hence my semi-hopeful point about Horwitz. When you chronically choose guys who swing at every spherical object in the same zip code, like MAT and BDLC, it's gonna have an impact.
But the Pirates, to a large extent system-wide, have had the same skewed hitting profile for five year now. Take lots of pitches, strike out a ton, don't walk all that much, and don't hit for power.
Also, you realize your second paragraph supports me?
I'd almost be tempted to give the 5th starter to Harrington. Especially, if he comes out and shoves in spring training. He has the best command of those competing and a kid like him, there's really not more development to be done.
Oviedo is probably going to be shaky with the command...let him build up in long relief.
Doesn’t Ashcraft have the best command of the three? Hopefully, he was able to put in a full offseason.
He just got hurt again while I was typing this though, so he’s out.
Honestly might've sold me on that.
I've been thinking they do that with Bubba, but Harrington might be able to stretch for the full season and probably has a tad less dev left in him on account of the command you mentioned.
One more point on Oviedo...are we even sure he's better than Mike Burrows, who's even further along in his TJS recovery? Truly the forgotten one of the bunch.
I think maybe we've forgotten how good Oviedo was. He had 14 quality starts and some disasters. Overall he was nearly as effective as Keller.
I think burrows might be the 5th starter from the jump. He’s gonna be on pitch limit this year too.
Looking forward to seeing if Hague can undo what Haines has done to the Pirates hitting. Would also would like to see you do a comparison to the Miracle Mets of Seaver, Koosman, Matlack and a very young Nolan Ryan to the Pirates rotation of Skeens, Keller, Jones, Chandler, Harrington