Early offseason look at the starting rotation depth

An early look at how the rotations may shape up throughout the organization for the Pirates.

Photo Credit: Ryan Palencer

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a very deep group of starting pitching prospects throughout the organization.

Add that to a major league rotation that could potentially return all five starters, there’s a legitimate roster crunch that could trickle throughout the organization.

With just five rotation spots open, players may be forced to start the season at the level they ended 2024 at, with some potentially getting shifted to the bullpen.

Since it is still early in the offseason, with no major moves having been made, I decided to take a look at how the rotations could shake out with the existing players they have.

This exercise is going to assume that everyone is going to enter 2025 healthy:

Major League Rotation

RHP Paul Skenes
RHP Mitch Keller
RHP Jared Jones
LHP Bailey Falter
RHP Luis Ortiz

I still feel like there is a good chance the Pirates try to flip a pitcher in the upper levels, either from the Triple-A depth or from this rotation. Luis Ortiz makes the most sense, trying to capitalize on where his stock is probably the highest.

For now, the Pirates are set to return their entire rotation from a year ago. Ortiz kicked it up a gear after moving back into the rotation, and Bailey Falter was a pleasant surprise that fits perfectly in the back of the rotation.

He could be the piece that gets bumped out when one of their top prospects is deemed major league-ready.

Triple-A

RHP Bubba Chandler
RHP Mike Burrows
RHP Thomas Harrington
RHP Braxton Ashcraft
RHP Johan Oviedo

Other options: RHP Sean Sullivan, LHP Dominic Perachi, LHP Nick Dombkowski

This would make for one of baseball's best minor-league rotations. Johan Oviedo returns to Triple-A to get back into the groove of things but should be an option in the majors at some point.

To help him ease back in, you could bring up any of the three listed under ‘other options.’ Sean Sullivan has nearly 200 innings logged at Double-A and could have been pushed to Indianapolis without an injury.

He seems like a perfect candidate to piggyback with Oviedo as he stretches his arm back out. Again, this exercise is assuming Sullivan is healthy, as he missed the last part of the season with an injury, with no official word yet on what it was.

Double-A

LHP Hunter Barco
RHP Po-Yu Chen
LHP Anthony Solometo
RHP Wilber Dotel
RHP Sean Sullivan

Other options: LHP Dominic Perachi, LHP Nick Dombkowski, RHP Alessandro Ercolani, RHP Derek Diamond, RHP Carlson Reed

Most of this rotation returns to Altoona after spending time there in 2024. It was just four innings for Hunter Barco, as an injury cut his season short. Ideally, you find a way to get Sullivan to Triple-A after spending 2023 and 2024 in Altoona, but if they still like him as a starter, he’ll head back to Double-A.

I can see a Carmen Mlodzinski-type shift to the bullpen this year, though, and start in the Indianapolis bullpen.

It was a rough year for Anthony Solometo, but he’s still young. Wilber Dotel is an interesting prospect that the Pirates have been aggressive with. Baseball America likened him to Luis Ortiz due to his lively fastball and being an older international signing.

Ortiz had his breakout year in Double-A, so we will see if Dotel can follow suit. After really shinning in the bullpen last year, the Pirates could keep Alessandro Ercolani there, but I wouldn’t count him out as a starter.

He could piggyback in to start in the Altoona bullpen until a spot is opened, or he could begin the year in Greensboro again. Either way, he’ll still be 20 years old on Opening Day 2025.

Carlson Reed didn’t spend much time in Greensboro, but he could make the leap straight to Altoona.

High-A

RHP Derek Diamond
LHP Michael Kennedy
RHP Carlson Reed
RHP Alessandro Ercolani
RHP Khristian Curtis

Other options: RHP Scott Randall, RHP Garrett McMillan, RHP Adrian Florencio, LHP Josh Hartle, RHP Massey

JP Massey had a solid end to the 2024 season, but his stuff likely plays better out of the bullpen. Not wanting to move on completely from him as a starter, Ercolani is still younger than the league average as a 20-year-old. He could be one of the first to get a promotion, and with how high they appear to be on him, it wouldn’t surprise me if he begins in Altoona and they find a way to make it work.

Josh Hartle is an advanced college pitcher, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets the Bradenton treatment for the first couple of weeks as he looks to rebound from last year’s rough season at Wake Forest.

Michael Kennedy pitched well in a limited showing as a 19-year-old in Greensboro and should begin there to start.

After pitching in Bradenton during the season and then in the Arizona Fall League, Khristian Curtis gets the bump to Greensboro. There’s some stuff there, and he pitched pretty well in the fall league.

Single-A

RHP Hung-Leng Chang
LHP Josh Hartle
RHP Matt Ager
RHP Zander Mueth
RHP Antwone Kelly
LHP Connor Wietgrefe

This rotation could end up on the older end, with three former college draft picks in it. Zander Mueth will also be 19 on Opening Day. Either Hartle or Matt Ager could make a case to jump straight to Greensboro, but get eased into pro ball by working out of Bradenton’s six-man rotation.

Connor Wietgrefe pitched well after being drafted, I’m not sure he’s a starter long-term but he could get a shot to start. Antwone Kelly was on the path to make it to Greensboro, but an injury limited his playing time.

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