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A lot of excellent information about some possible trade candidates. Some things we need to consider about the 2024 season regarding hitting -

* we lost 40 extra base hits from Ke'Bryan Hayes. 2023 - 31/7/15 - 53 EBH; 2024 - 9/0/4 - 13 EBH, and

* when looking, we need to bear in mind that putting the ball in play has to be our most important consideration. That means taking into consideration the rate of BB/K for position players. To help, here's how the Pirates did in 2024 from best to worst. I also added our 3 best HR hitters to show that a high number of HR's does not necessarily mean a high K/BB rate:

Grandal 1.9 K/BB

Joe 2.1 K/BB

Cutch 2.3 K/BB, 20 HR

Reynolds 2.7 K/BB, 22 HR

Triolo 2.8 K/BB

Tellez 2.9 K/BB

Suwinski 2.9 K/BB

Bart 3.3 K/BB

Hayes 3.3 K/BB

Cruz 3.5 K/BB, 21 HR

Bae 4.0 K/BB

Gonzales 4.1 K/BB

Taylor 4.6 K/BB

Williams 7.3 K/BB

BDLC 13 K/BB

IKF 13.7 K/BB

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Saved the best for last - Juan Brito. Not a SS, but as a hit first second baseman he does have enough glove to handle that position as long as he continues to work at it and improve. The offensive numbers are off the chart - 40 doubles, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 88 Walks to only 105 K's at AAA this year as a 23 year old. Definitely somebody the Pirates could use.

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Good article, I'm a little skeptical of Muncy. I can see him being very similar to players already on the roster if he struggles at all at short (right hand hitting utility infielder). I like the idea of Brito from Cleveland and even a high risk high reward guy like Watson if he ever figures it out. I'd target a couple corner outfielders one that hits right handed one left handed.

My priority list in no particular order would be 2 outfielders, 1 or 2 infielders that hit lefty or are switch hitters. 1st base if it is a potential difference maker that probably isn't available ( example Tyler Soderstom).

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TJ for Musgrove

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happy he got paid before it happened

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Sucks. Has he had it before?

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I don’t think so. Had other injuries though

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Damn, thought he had kicked his early health issues. He held a full workload for what, three years before last?

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Bummer, always like him seems like a great guy

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Great piece. I’ve loved the idea of Doyle, but I do wonder if he’s cost-prohibitive to the point of the Bucs being uncomfortable. That’s likely Bubba.

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I’m certainly not in favor of dealing Bubba, but I am 99.99% sure BC would never trade that highly rated a prospect. He’s way to risk adverse to make this kind of bold move.

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Nice write-up. It reminds me of my pre- deadline trade thoughts. IMO the White Sox could also make a good trade partner. I expect the they'll hold a fire sale on their ML talent and look at a complete rebuild. BC could find a quick ML upgrade with them. I also like the Dodgers for their abundance of everything except healthy SP. I didn't consider the other teams detailed here, but I can see why you're high on them.

Any chance they can get a bucket of balls for Shelton this off-season? I'd take that in a minute. If not, maybe just a bucket?

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Awesome content here!

I’d target someone like Pavin Smith.

Doyle would be a nice get. Young from Washington would look good in cf. Tovar would be worth looking into. I’d probably entertain bringing back Grandal on a one year deal, he was one of the best hitters in baseball the 2nd half. Pitchers love throwing to him & im not sold on Endy/Bart. Let Endy marinate and mature in aaa.

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I'd steer clear of Pavin Smith, his mlb numbers were inflated by 3 games over 60 he played this past year. The 3 homerun game against Houston being the biggest. As a secondary piece he'd be ok. He just seems like the left handed hitting Connor Joe. Nothing wrong with him if used correctly but a short hot streak and he'd be an everyday piece with BC and DS.

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Roll the dice on a 1B acquisition instead of moving Reynolds?

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I don’t see a reason to commit to one or the other. Get the best guy you can (well, it’s BC, so . . .). If an OF, move Reynolds, if not don’t.

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too much sensing being made in this strategy...

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Would Reynolds be a good 1B? Hint…nobody knows. We all just assume he can field ground balls and make good decisions on what balls to go after and which ones not to. Not to mention the throws are way different from the infield.

I’m not sold yet.

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You're obviously not wrong, but my barometer here will always be Garrett Jones.

He had the yips so bad the Pirates just told him to stop throwing after 2010...and nobody really cared. He was pretttty terrible on the dirt all around and was no worse on a rate basis than Reynolds graded out in the outfield last year.

I'd be open to an argument that says Reynolds' outfield D may bounce back enough to warrant keeping him there more than one that says to keep him there because he'll be so much worse on the dirt.

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He played some at Vandy and team USA if im remembering right, so its at least not starting at zero

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Nah, move Reynolds to 1b. They’d seemingly be set at 1b for quite a few years

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Right on...but to be truthful I also didn't realize Pavin Smith was playing some outfield!

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Also as much as I love him, I’m not wedded to the idea of Cutch coming back to DH. I’d really only keep that spot open if they had a guy like Rooker.

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you shutchyer mouth right now

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I think im pro moving reynolds assuming he doesnt suck at first, though to be fair he did suck in the OF.... so im for it plus it feels like a much cheaper upgrade. To get a corner OF that is even average at the plate and in the field would be a significant boost on both sides of the ball and should be fairly inexpensive in terms of dollars and/or prospects

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Would he suck in RF?

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

This must've taken a ton of work, awesome job Jeff!

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I’m all the more impressed because I just can’t develop the interest level to dig into this sort of thing because I firmly believe there’s a 0% chance of Cherington making a legitimate effort to improve the team. This FO is just that demoralizing, way way worse than their predecessors. Credit to Nola.

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Off topic, but I heard Shelton on MLB Radio yesterday, he is a "postseason analyst" for them doing once a week Q & A. He also did once a week calls with MLB Radio during the season. Here's the thing about Shelton......he can analyze a game(s) after the fact and make valid observations, whether on Pirates post-game or MLB Radio. He has the baseball IQ to know what the pitcher was executing right and wrong, what the hitter is doing, what the defense is doing, what the other managers involved are doing with their pen, etc. So while he makes valid commentary after-the-fact for the most part, this should no way mean he's a good manager, a good field general in real-time, a good teacher, a good employer of coaches, etc.

Secondly, why does BC allow him to do this weekly spot during the season with MLB Radio? A manager has SOOO many responsibilities, why in the hell would we want Shelton having to do a weekly radio gig about the Pirates especially, I assume a paid gig too? The team notoriously lacks transparency with the local Pittsburgh media. Why is Shelton on national radio?.....he's got alot more

important things to do......like managing and losing more games than winning for 5 seasons now.

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Just about every coach, manager, GM in sports has a weekly show.

Completely normal for Shelton having a gig like that.

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Sure, in his his club's home city.

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Your problem isn’t the fact of him having a once per week show, it’s him being on a national stage. You’re fine if he was doing something once per week locally but he doesn’t deserve being on mlb radio.

The hate runs incredibly deep.

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Mostly true. Does he have a local Pgh show? I don't know cause I'm in VA. And why would he merit being a guest on MLB Radio after his 4 last place seasons? It doesn't add up to me......that's all.

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He’s still 1 of 30. Even if he’s way closer to 30 than 1.

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I honestly don’t know if he has anything local.

Im guessing non pirate fans find him charming, well spoken and knowledgeable. We’re not talking about a John Russell personality. Shelton comes off as real and relatable.

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Oct 4·edited Oct 4

I go back to our Jimmy Leyland analogy on this one.

Did Jim become less of a field manager and coach in 1993?

I think you might be explaining why they haven't moved on from Shelton here.

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What I didn't say above was that Shelton's analysis and takes in a 5-minute segment are not anything eye-opening, that any one of us commenters here couldn't verbalize. He's like a reporter reporting what happened, who was good, who wasn't. It's a surfacy chat, nothing more, but that's to be expected in a 5-minute segment.

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Bottom line, he should have been fired. Where's the outrage? Maybe it's been in P/G

which I haven't read this week. I think it's just a fan base that was resigned to this outcome, that Nutting wasn't going to do a thing, and that Cherington had 2 scapegoats, and let's call it a year. Yeah I'm pissed.

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It’s hard being a fan of this organization these days.

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I always think about Wayne Gretzky, who obviously was very very very good at hockey, and could talk a hockey game, but wasn't a very good coach.

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Didnt somebody hire Bonds for like a season?

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Marlins, of all teams. Lasted one season lol

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ThAT'S IT!

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Yelich credit him if remember correctly from being a ground ball machine to what he is now. Apparently he was good with the star players, ignore the rest!

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Maybe get Bonds to give Termarr some coaching after the AFL.

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Bubba is heading to be the best prospect in baseball

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if Cutch can be traded, then Bednar can be traded

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They would be trading very low this off season. He would bring little back.

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trade him for Devin Williams?

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Great stuff here!

Lots of great names and orgs highlighted that would pay a premium for cost controlled starting pitching. Now here's the zillion dollar question: anyone trust BC and co to pick the right one(s)? I think I lean towards trading both one of the big league arms (ortiz- but skenes is the only untouchable) and one of the AAA guys (ashcraft?- bubba is the only untouchable) because we are that depleted in hitters and somehow our track record of FA LHSP off the scrap heap has been pretty fantastic, so would love to tap into that again.

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Good news with teams like Colorado and Athletics is, they could want either big league established or big league ready pitching, while having the same available in what the Pirates need.

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Gotta find the sweetspot of what maybe they overvalue compared to what we dont value as much

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Man, that was great! And very thorough as well. Do you think BC will go this route or the lower priced established major league player route? He's got to know this is going to be his last year if performance is not there. Will he panic or stick to his guns.

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I keep hearing things like, “BC has to know this is his last year here.” But is it really?

BN treats the Pirates like a ski resort or newspaper business. No won/loss record is going to dictate to him who he retains or fires. Once we as fans realize he’s not a fan of anything but his latest quarterly financial statement, we’ll understand his mindset.

Personally, I think BC understands he’ll have a job for as long as he wants, by playing it safe. Only a big ballsy move that blows up in his face will cause BN to pay attention to what’s going on in the FO.

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Also I don’t want a GM knowing or feeling it’s his last season because then he may be more likely to do something rash. With the notable exception being “this is a very good playoff group with a lot of changes on the horizon, and this may be our last great shot at a title.” These Bucs, uhhhh, do not fit in that category.

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Exactly!

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I think one of the two should be a targeted route this off-season, and tomorrow will touch on MLB bats. Obviously getting prospects would be risky, but gotta take some risks for a cheap cost controlled bat. Then could add maybe a better mid tier FA bat since they don't have to spread the cash as much.

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Have a closer look at the Buelvas kid. The As might have something there. The surplus of young OFers in the As system leads me to believe that they were being coy about not wanting to trade Rooker at the deadline. I think they are most likely to move him of all their players and are just waiting for the right offer.

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Idk. The season Rooker just had, they'd probably ask a lot. But then again, it's the Athletics

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Oct 4Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Good write-up.

Baseball trades of prospects for prospects are within the Nutting budget. (You mentioned Michael Busch. the Pirates should have outbid the Cubs for him last year.)

I would trade Henry Davis in a heartbeat in a prospect for prospect deal. while he sill holds value. Bart and Endy can handle catching.

Otherwise middle infielders and pitchers are a surplus. (Chandler and Termarr not available but everyone else could be.)

As you mention, "Oakland" is a target rich environment and Colorado has some options and needs a catcher and pitching.

Baltimore needs pitching but has been reluctant to deal their elite prospects.

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