I realize this- and I like him a lot, just not at a premium 4 prospect package. Last year Rocker was an above average hitter, but this year he has been crazy good. Is this year an outlier? How many guys get better at 31-32-&33 yrs old, that’s what the Pirates would be getting
The Rumbunter trade has the Pirates trading Chapman and Ashcraft for Kjerstad. I don't think that gets it done. I'm not sure Keller, Ashcraft and Chapman gets it done. The O's have not wanted to trade their prospects and are said to be negotiating with the Tigers for Skubal and another team for a top of the rotation starter. Even without access to these discussions, they surely include Jackson Holiday as a PART of the return. If true, then a Keller to the O's trade might be the second best move for the O's. If Holiday is too high a price to pay, especially if the O's need to sweeten the deal, then trading for Keller along with Ashcraft and Chapman might look reasonable.
That said, I believe BTV undervalued Keller. and Eflin: #3 starters that eat innings and keep the score down are valuable, especially to a team that scores as often as the O's. The O's could then trade Holiday for Skubal and become the mid-season favorite to win the WS.
But this is just fantastic speculation on my part.
Because Chapman is a well-known pitcher who has performed is not over the hill. Yes, he's wild sometimes. But he can still throw 103 mph. He pitched for the Rangers last year. I enjoyed watching Schwarber (sp) fight withe umpire when Chapman threw a laser ball at the knees for strike three!
Besides, I had a real-world trade in mind.
1. Ashcraft is again on the IL with the mystery ailment that put him there. The trade package needs to account for his injury.
2. I believe BTV undervalued Keller, but not by a whole lot. So I added a pitcher who, if he doesn't end up in the HOF, he is already in the Hall of the Very Good. Such a pitcher would be very useful in the postseason.
I have yet to accurately predict a trade. But I do try to figure out what the other team's GM might want given his situation. Why engage in wild speculation?
Trades fail for many reasons. Sometimes the GMs dislike each other. Sometimes one or both GMs cut off their noses to spite their faces -- that is, they played chicken and both lost. Sometimes another GM overpays for the player in question. And so on. But I try to be realistic within the limits of what I, an outsider, can know. Look at how often baseball journalists get wrong. And they have sources!
I am biased. It would p**s me off greatly if Cherrington traded any of the following prospects:
TJ
Bubba Chandler
De los Santos
Blanco
Harrington
I'd trade Harrington in the right deal but the others now look as untapped potential. I'd trade any other promising pitcher since the Cherrington Pirates seem to acquire two or three every year.
The idea that any hotshot pitching prospect can come in and easily replicate Mitch’s production is one of the most head scratching things I’ve read in awhile. Since the start of 2023, Mitch is 17th in MLB in fWAR. If they’re desperate for bats, trade Bubba and/or other arms. Or if they’re dealing with Baltimore, trade Bednar. That probably doesn’t work as much as a trade partner, but trading Keller is foolish.
One benefit of trading Keller is thevlosing of his contract. That means there will be more money available for Cruz, Skenes, Jones, Gonzales, Rodriguez, Kjerstad, Davis (hopefully), etc.
It is ironic to assert that no rookie pitcher can come in and replicate Keller's production when Skenes and Jones are doing that and more in the case of Skenes.
Let's assume my proposed trade is made. Here is a hypothetical 2025 rotation in August:
Skenes
Jones
Ortiz
Oviedo
Falter/Chandler/Harrington
That's a strong and deep rotation. Would it be better than this rotation?
Skenes
Jones
Keller
Ortiz
Oviedo/Falter/Chandler/Harrington/Ashcraft
No, it would not. But if the Pirates want to trade for a quality prospect or rookie, they will need to provide baseball value that matches or nearly matches the value of the player they are trading for. Keller does that. Keller is a durable #3 starting pitcher at this point in his career. I believe the BTV metric undervalues a pitcher like Keller. Keller is durable, consistent, does not cause trouble, provides cost certainty, works at his craft, etc.
If the Pirates want to acquire a valuable player, they would need to trade a valuable player, one that meets the needs of their trading partner. That player is Keller, not Chandler. Keller is a Major League pitcher, Chandler is not. The O's are fighting for a World Series and have no need for a pitching prospect that is one or more seasons away from the Majors.
And I think you’re wildly overconfident that the success of two rookies immediately assumes any rookie can step right in. One of the rookies is a generational (I detest that term but it applies) pitching prospect. The other is a nice, but early success story that is fairly incomplete so far.
You think Chandler/Harrington/Ashcraft can step right into Keller’s shoes? Do you remember how long it took him to get his footing? How do you know they won’t need a lengthy adjustment period?
It’s also reckless to try and make this move WHILE Jones is still injured and out. What if Jones has a setback? Now they’ve got Skenes and nothing else.
Again, NO they don’t need to only trade Keller to get a valuable MLB hitter back with term. That’s what the prospects are for, if a team is looking to sell.
Trades should be made for players that can help the Pirates win a WS.
Rooker is having a career year. So, his cost is high. But, since he's 29, he may suffer an age driven regression. So, trading for Rooker means paying top shelf price for a player who might be rot gut in a year or two.
TJ has not performed well in the MiLs. His trade value is low. Including him in a trade means selling low on him. But he's shown his actual value over the last two months. That value is very high. It conforms to the evaluation and projection put on him when he was drafted. It's better to wait on TJ to increase his value to trade him or to put him at 2nd or 3rd in the Majors. Besides, the Pirates need hitters. Trading away a hitter is counterproductive.
Pirates fans want a winner now. Their time preference requires trades to make that happen. Thus the demand for Cherrington to make trades to put the Pirates in the postseason. It's taken patience to stick with the Pirates but for some thecwaiting has become unbearable.
If Cherrington were to make another move, it is unlikely it would be a trade of prospects for a player like Rooker. He said as much in an article I can't find.
Booyah!!!!! #54 in the books! My good buddy Marshal Nathan Van Cleef yelled out “How the Hell did that happen? “ 3 times. Grandal’s home run and him throwing out Altuve, plus MAT’s HR. Baseball! Gotta love it!! Raise it!!
Watching the Astros post game show and an interview with their GM. He was asked why he was willing to give up three prospects for a mid to back end starting pitcher like Kukichi and his response was “you don’t want to get caught not doing anything to help the major league team get back to the post season.” Guess Cherington must have missed that GM meeting.
'Mid to back end'.....and the guy has the peripherals of a top 20 starter right now, sandwiched between Corbin Burnes and Aaron Nola....That is a great bet to make for the playoff run
Luke very well might be. It's weird when people need other people to think and speak the way they'd like them to. It's a trade deadline. Fans speculate. If you don't like it, go watch the Olympics. That's the sporting event for the herd animals.
I hadn't actually looked at Grandal's splits before. He's actually somewhat playable as a RHB (think Chris Stewart #s), but not nearly as productive as Bart, Delay or Davis as a RHB vs LHP.. He is pretty useless as a LHB. Bart and Delay both have better OPS vs RHP than Grandal (Davis is actually worse vs RHP).
Thought about him the other day. He's at $7.9M now entering 3rd arb this offseason. Hard to comp given he's 33. But he went from $6.1M to $7.9M last time. So he'd be pushing $10M this time, going into age 34 season. With very little surplus value, he shouldn't cost major prospects, but Giants will ask for that. He's also kind of a product of Oracle Park. His road stats have been putrid last couple years. So really don't know what to think with him.
I kinda miss the bad old days. It was easier to watch this team when you were just hoping for moral victories. Now you see the margin at which the team could contend, and it feels irritating to watch them fight out games like this.
Watching sub-600 OPS hitters eek out a win with a hodgepodge of pitchers is one thing. Watching a team keep trotting out sub-600 OPS hitters when the pitching staff is littered with studs . . . that's grating, to say the least.
I've certainly been critical on all kinds of things, even the way he looks when he walks to the mound. One thing is clear the last couple of games. The dude is trying like hell to win, and I appreciate that.
You're forgetting what BC has stated, he thinks his current roster can win games.
These last 2 games are telling Ben he's right. Tellez, Bart, Triolo, Grandal, Michael A. all having huge hits. He's standing pat, except will deal Chapman for the savings.
Do you really think the GM is gonna say we desperately need hitters when talking to the media or he is going to play poker and say he thinks he can win...saying we desperately need hitters and are willing to trade anyone or anything is only making his bargaining position even worse. His pickups this off season have been terrible, I'm pretty sure he can see that. LOL
I haven't forgotten. It's probably not going to happen for us but would be fun if it did. They almost have to acquire 1 OF. Suwinski shouldn't come back yet. I guess they could try Gorski for 75 PAs.
It appears the O's have got their second to last pitcher without touching their top prospects.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40682777/sources-orioles-bolster-rotation-marlins-trevor-rogers
Would you guys offer Termarr + Ashcraft + Meuth + Brannigan if that landed Rooker? I think I would.
Don’t think I do it- I think Termarr has to be off the table.
Rooker has the 4th highest wRC+ among qualified hitters in MLB! Termarr is a good prospect but we're talking about a budget Shohei at DH here.
I realize this- and I like him a lot, just not at a premium 4 prospect package. Last year Rocker was an above average hitter, but this year he has been crazy good. Is this year an outlier? How many guys get better at 31-32-&33 yrs old, that’s what the Pirates would be getting
Adrian Beltre and Justin Turner come to mind… but that’s about it. Taking a big risk there.
A Pirates Orioles trade:
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/173062
Rumbunter proposes a similar trade:
https://rumbunter.com/posts/bold-mock-aroldis-chapman-trade-proposal-that-would-fix-pirates-outfield-01j3znbybb5z
The Rumbunter trade has the Pirates trading Chapman and Ashcraft for Kjerstad. I don't think that gets it done. I'm not sure Keller, Ashcraft and Chapman gets it done. The O's have not wanted to trade their prospects and are said to be negotiating with the Tigers for Skubal and another team for a top of the rotation starter. Even without access to these discussions, they surely include Jackson Holiday as a PART of the return. If true, then a Keller to the O's trade might be the second best move for the O's. If Holiday is too high a price to pay, especially if the O's need to sweeten the deal, then trading for Keller along with Ashcraft and Chapman might look reasonable.
That said, I believe BTV undervalued Keller. and Eflin: #3 starters that eat innings and keep the score down are valuable, especially to a team that scores as often as the O's. The O's could then trade Holiday for Skubal and become the mid-season favorite to win the WS.
But this is just fantastic speculation on my part.
Why add Chapman if he brings the value down?
Because Chapman is a well-known pitcher who has performed is not over the hill. Yes, he's wild sometimes. But he can still throw 103 mph. He pitched for the Rangers last year. I enjoyed watching Schwarber (sp) fight withe umpire when Chapman threw a laser ball at the knees for strike three!
Besides, I had a real-world trade in mind.
1. Ashcraft is again on the IL with the mystery ailment that put him there. The trade package needs to account for his injury.
2. I believe BTV undervalued Keller, but not by a whole lot. So I added a pitcher who, if he doesn't end up in the HOF, he is already in the Hall of the Very Good. Such a pitcher would be very useful in the postseason.
I have yet to accurately predict a trade. But I do try to figure out what the other team's GM might want given his situation. Why engage in wild speculation?
Trades fail for many reasons. Sometimes the GMs dislike each other. Sometimes one or both GMs cut off their noses to spite their faces -- that is, they played chicken and both lost. Sometimes another GM overpays for the player in question. And so on. But I try to be realistic within the limits of what I, an outsider, can know. Look at how often baseball journalists get wrong. And they have sources!
I am biased. It would p**s me off greatly if Cherrington traded any of the following prospects:
TJ
Bubba Chandler
De los Santos
Blanco
Harrington
I'd trade Harrington in the right deal but the others now look as untapped potential. I'd trade any other promising pitcher since the Cherrington Pirates seem to acquire two or three every year.
The idea that any hotshot pitching prospect can come in and easily replicate Mitch’s production is one of the most head scratching things I’ve read in awhile. Since the start of 2023, Mitch is 17th in MLB in fWAR. If they’re desperate for bats, trade Bubba and/or other arms. Or if they’re dealing with Baltimore, trade Bednar. That probably doesn’t work as much as a trade partner, but trading Keller is foolish.
One benefit of trading Keller is thevlosing of his contract. That means there will be more money available for Cruz, Skenes, Jones, Gonzales, Rodriguez, Kjerstad, Davis (hopefully), etc.
It is ironic to assert that no rookie pitcher can come in and replicate Keller's production when Skenes and Jones are doing that and more in the case of Skenes.
Let's assume my proposed trade is made. Here is a hypothetical 2025 rotation in August:
Skenes
Jones
Ortiz
Oviedo
Falter/Chandler/Harrington
That's a strong and deep rotation. Would it be better than this rotation?
Skenes
Jones
Keller
Ortiz
Oviedo/Falter/Chandler/Harrington/Ashcraft
No, it would not. But if the Pirates want to trade for a quality prospect or rookie, they will need to provide baseball value that matches or nearly matches the value of the player they are trading for. Keller does that. Keller is a durable #3 starting pitcher at this point in his career. I believe the BTV metric undervalues a pitcher like Keller. Keller is durable, consistent, does not cause trouble, provides cost certainty, works at his craft, etc.
If the Pirates want to acquire a valuable player, they would need to trade a valuable player, one that meets the needs of their trading partner. That player is Keller, not Chandler. Keller is a Major League pitcher, Chandler is not. The O's are fighting for a World Series and have no need for a pitching prospect that is one or more seasons away from the Majors.
And I think you’re wildly overconfident that the success of two rookies immediately assumes any rookie can step right in. One of the rookies is a generational (I detest that term but it applies) pitching prospect. The other is a nice, but early success story that is fairly incomplete so far.
You think Chandler/Harrington/Ashcraft can step right into Keller’s shoes? Do you remember how long it took him to get his footing? How do you know they won’t need a lengthy adjustment period?
It’s also reckless to try and make this move WHILE Jones is still injured and out. What if Jones has a setback? Now they’ve got Skenes and nothing else.
Again, NO they don’t need to only trade Keller to get a valuable MLB hitter back with term. That’s what the prospects are for, if a team is looking to sell.
I'd move Termarr for Rooker. 168 wRC+ in a pitchers park.
I'd not trade for Rooker. He's too old.
I assume:
The Pirates won't win the WS this year
So, trading for a short-term fix wastes an asset.
Trades should be made for players that can help the Pirates win a WS.
Rooker is having a career year. So, his cost is high. But, since he's 29, he may suffer an age driven regression. So, trading for Rooker means paying top shelf price for a player who might be rot gut in a year or two.
TJ has not performed well in the MiLs. His trade value is low. Including him in a trade means selling low on him. But he's shown his actual value over the last two months. That value is very high. It conforms to the evaluation and projection put on him when he was drafted. It's better to wait on TJ to increase his value to trade him or to put him at 2nd or 3rd in the Majors. Besides, the Pirates need hitters. Trading away a hitter is counterproductive.
Pirates fans want a winner now. Their time preference requires trades to make that happen. Thus the demand for Cherrington to make trades to put the Pirates in the postseason. It's taken patience to stick with the Pirates but for some thecwaiting has become unbearable.
If Cherrington were to make another move, it is unlikely it would be a trade of prospects for a player like Rooker. He said as much in an article I can't find.
Color me surprised. I had no idea Falter was even back with the club, let alone starting tomorrow.
Now the Beeks trade makes zero sense to me.
Geeks is also a LH replacement for Fleming, who was DFAed.
It makes sense if the Pirates are preparing to move Chapman tomorrow. That does not mean they will trade him. But if the opportunity were there...
Booyah!!!!! #54 in the books! My good buddy Marshal Nathan Van Cleef yelled out “How the Hell did that happen? “ 3 times. Grandal’s home run and him throwing out Altuve, plus MAT’s HR. Baseball! Gotta love it!! Raise it!!
Watching the Astros post game show and an interview with their GM. He was asked why he was willing to give up three prospects for a mid to back end starting pitcher like Kukichi and his response was “you don’t want to get caught not doing anything to help the major league team get back to the post season.” Guess Cherington must have missed that GM meeting.
'Mid to back end'.....and the guy has the peripherals of a top 20 starter right now, sandwiched between Corbin Burnes and Aaron Nola....That is a great bet to make for the playoff run
Or maybe tell Luke to F off and post whatever you want!
Maybe. Maybe wait and see?
You're all over this thread telling people what they should and shouldn't write. Log off. Go to bed.
DRUNK POSTING...
Luke very well might be. It's weird when people need other people to think and speak the way they'd like them to. It's a trade deadline. Fans speculate. If you don't like it, go watch the Olympics. That's the sporting event for the herd animals.
Mayo has Yorke as our 5th best prospect right now lol.
Might just be a nice trade 😁
I like the trade quite a bit, but probably doesn’t help us this year.
To me, if it makes us better but not til next year so be it. To me, every deal needs to be centered just on this year.
I hadn't actually looked at Grandal's splits before. He's actually somewhat playable as a RHB (think Chris Stewart #s), but not nearly as productive as Bart, Delay or Davis as a RHB vs LHP.. He is pretty useless as a LHB. Bart and Delay both have better OPS vs RHP than Grandal (Davis is actually worse vs RHP).
Well, except for the HR he smacked off Ort tonight. That was pretty useful 😁
He does have more power from left side, I'll give you that.
Lol! Just couldn’t help myself. He does hit 100 points higher from the right side. So you are right.
Mike Yastrzemski wouldn't be the worst either if he came relatively cheaply.
Thought about him the other day. He's at $7.9M now entering 3rd arb this offseason. Hard to comp given he's 33. But he went from $6.1M to $7.9M last time. So he'd be pushing $10M this time, going into age 34 season. With very little surplus value, he shouldn't cost major prospects, but Giants will ask for that. He's also kind of a product of Oracle Park. His road stats have been putrid last couple years. So really don't know what to think with him.
I kinda miss the bad old days. It was easier to watch this team when you were just hoping for moral victories. Now you see the margin at which the team could contend, and it feels irritating to watch them fight out games like this.
They are still moral victories. Just think of them as a higher set of morals.
Watching sub-600 OPS hitters eek out a win with a hodgepodge of pitchers is one thing. Watching a team keep trotting out sub-600 OPS hitters when the pitching staff is littered with studs . . . that's grating, to say the least.
True dat!
Maybe Shelton can only really manage well when everything goes sideways. Gotta say, he's been unconventional last couple days.
I've certainly been critical on all kinds of things, even the way he looks when he walks to the mound. One thing is clear the last couple of games. The dude is trying like hell to win, and I appreciate that.
So if they snag Yandy Diaz and Taylor Ward I might start to...
You're forgetting what BC has stated, he thinks his current roster can win games.
These last 2 games are telling Ben he's right. Tellez, Bart, Triolo, Grandal, Michael A. all having huge hits. He's standing pat, except will deal Chapman for the savings.
Doubt he stands pat if Palacios and Bae both go on the DL.
Ben should be talking to Dana Brown right now to acquire Pedro Leon.
They just called him up to play at MLB for them!
Do you really think the GM is gonna say we desperately need hitters when talking to the media or he is going to play poker and say he thinks he can win...saying we desperately need hitters and are willing to trade anyone or anything is only making his bargaining position even worse. His pickups this off season have been terrible, I'm pretty sure he can see that. LOL
They did lose two OFs tonight and Nick Gonzales is on the IL too.
Palacios may be a 10-day. We aren't going to miss Bae.
I haven't forgotten. It's probably not going to happen for us but would be fun if it did. They almost have to acquire 1 OF. Suwinski shouldn't come back yet. I guess they could try Gorski for 75 PAs.
A couple of huge victories snatched from the jaws of defeat.
Grandal, MAT.....GMBC's master plan is coming together. 😐
The Murderers' Row 2024 Pirates.
And Triolo ripped a double and didn’t strike out in a big situation. Odd night, but I’ll take it.
I still have hopes for Triolo to figure it out at this level, but it may not be this year, or with Andy Haines…
Big win! Good work buccos
Taylor seems like a nice, respectable guy. Never heard him speak before.
Saw interview right when they signed him and thought the same.
Raise it!