Why has Bryan Reynolds’ defense detoriated so much? I am only able to follow on-line or listen so I don’t get to see them very often. He used to be a solid perhaps slightly above average defender. Is it just the switch to LF at PNC? He is 10-12 in steals this year and doesn’t seem to have lost too much speed. Can anyone who is able to watch them give me some understanding about what has changed?
Defensive ratings always seem a bit odd to me. 1 year player x is great the next he sucks. When the gold glove finalists are anouncedeach year, there are always a few that I think really? If he is losing his range, maybe he could be the answer at 1b. That would solve that blackhole for a few years.
The Outs Above Average (StatCast) metric has no human judgement involved. Just the time the ball is in the air and the distance the player has to travel, with adjustment factors when going back on the ball (more difficult than other directions) and influence of the wall on catches. The size of the outfield wouldn't make a difference. OAA is the purest, most objective, defensive metric.
I agree he doesn't *look* bad out there but I'm also not accounting for how peer defenders would look relative to him, which is what these metrics measure.
Park factors absolutely play a role in OAA. For example, "catch probability" includes as a factor "proximity to the wall," with catches closer to the wall being given a higher difficulty. So, if a guy is playing in a small OF, he will have more catches given a boost in difficulty by being close to the wall, making him appear to have more range than he actually does. Whereas a guy playing in a cavernous OF, like Reynolds, will have fewer catches given a boost in difficulty by the wall.
That said, I agree with you that OAA is the best defensive metric.
outs above AVERAGE. In fact OAA uses every single putout in baseball as part of its data, so the LFer in Boston playing in front of the Green Monster is part of the data that determine Reynolds' ability in LF.
That actually reinforces my point. When he does get close to the wall, he suddenly becomes average. Heading towards the north-side notch, he suddenly becomes below average. Keep in mind too that OAA does not account for plays where, for example, the SS goes too far back for the ball, cuts Reynolds off, and causes the ball to fall. That goes against Reynolds, even though the SS was responsible for a high-percentage catch falling for a hit. Also if a ball hit in the gap between CF and LF falls, that goes against both Reynolds and the CFer, so a bad CFer can drag down the other OFers.
Both Fangraphs and baseball reference have him as a negative defensive player in LF for 2-3 years now in terms of outs above average. Based on uzr (per fangraphs) he is slightly worse this year than previous years in LF. Baseball reference shows him about consistently below average for the past 3 years in LF, so no decline noted.
What is interesting is that both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have him as a more-or-less average CFer, sometimes during the same period (2021 and 2022, for example) that they have him rated as a below average LFer. There is something fishy here, and I think the people who make the determinations about "catch probability" and so forth for uzr and oaa are not properly accounting for the size of LF in PNC and balls hit to the northside notch.
Finally, something that neither Fangraphs nor Baseball Reference take into account in their defensive metrics is positioning. It may be that the Pirates do not have their OFers in the best position for every batter.
He doesn't make many errors, seems to take good routes, and almost always throws to the right base, so I'm left thinking he's simply lost some range with age. That agrees with my eye test, but of course my eyes may be biased by knowing that his defensive metrics have declined.
His sprint speed dropped to 61st percentile last year. He's back up at 70 this year. Somehow his range is worse though (15th to 1st percentile). I think something is janky for sure. He looks fine out there to me. Like solidly average.
Couldn’t really comprehend why IKF’s WAR was so high this year when the Pirates acquired him. “It’s his defensive” they said. The eye test tells me he is average at best on the left side of the diamond and the arm is mid.
Hooray, they're beating up on even crappier teams to tank the tankathon!
Oneil has the Andy Van Slyke hat thing going on at this point and I love it.
The forgotten man and former minor league player of the year, Endy with a line drive double to RF on his first at bat.
Endy endures in our hearts and minds. I hope he beats the tar out of the ball.
Why has Bryan Reynolds’ defense detoriated so much? I am only able to follow on-line or listen so I don’t get to see them very often. He used to be a solid perhaps slightly above average defender. Is it just the switch to LF at PNC? He is 10-12 in steals this year and doesn’t seem to have lost too much speed. Can anyone who is able to watch them give me some understanding about what has changed?
He was never that great of a defender is why. And he's enter the not-great part of the aging curve, especially for defense.
He gets to the ball, and his arm seems to be respected. I have no issues with his defense.
Defensive ratings always seem a bit odd to me. 1 year player x is great the next he sucks. When the gold glove finalists are anouncedeach year, there are always a few that I think really? If he is losing his range, maybe he could be the answer at 1b. That would solve that blackhole for a few years.
Could be a Jeter thing.
The Outs Above Average (StatCast) metric has no human judgement involved. Just the time the ball is in the air and the distance the player has to travel, with adjustment factors when going back on the ball (more difficult than other directions) and influence of the wall on catches. The size of the outfield wouldn't make a difference. OAA is the purest, most objective, defensive metric.
I agree he doesn't *look* bad out there but I'm also not accounting for how peer defenders would look relative to him, which is what these metrics measure.
Jeter has the lowest DRS for a career in baseball.
Park factors absolutely play a role in OAA. For example, "catch probability" includes as a factor "proximity to the wall," with catches closer to the wall being given a higher difficulty. So, if a guy is playing in a small OF, he will have more catches given a boost in difficulty by being close to the wall, making him appear to have more range than he actually does. Whereas a guy playing in a cavernous OF, like Reynolds, will have fewer catches given a boost in difficulty by the wall.
That said, I agree with you that OAA is the best defensive metric.
Nowhere even close to enough opportunities in that exceptionally specific case to have anywhere near as much impact as you claim.
The other thing, of course, is that only half of his games are at PNC.
outs above AVERAGE. In fact OAA uses every single putout in baseball as part of its data, so the LFer in Boston playing in front of the Green Monster is part of the data that determine Reynolds' ability in LF.
The other other thing, is that he's league-average going back on balls. All his missed outs are side-to-side or in front of him.
That actually reinforces my point. When he does get close to the wall, he suddenly becomes average. Heading towards the north-side notch, he suddenly becomes below average. Keep in mind too that OAA does not account for plays where, for example, the SS goes too far back for the ball, cuts Reynolds off, and causes the ball to fall. That goes against Reynolds, even though the SS was responsible for a high-percentage catch falling for a hit. Also if a ball hit in the gap between CF and LF falls, that goes against both Reynolds and the CFer, so a bad CFer can drag down the other OFers.
That is absolutely, 100% not how any of this works. You made this up.
Both Fangraphs and baseball reference have him as a negative defensive player in LF for 2-3 years now in terms of outs above average. Based on uzr (per fangraphs) he is slightly worse this year than previous years in LF. Baseball reference shows him about consistently below average for the past 3 years in LF, so no decline noted.
What is interesting is that both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have him as a more-or-less average CFer, sometimes during the same period (2021 and 2022, for example) that they have him rated as a below average LFer. There is something fishy here, and I think the people who make the determinations about "catch probability" and so forth for uzr and oaa are not properly accounting for the size of LF in PNC and balls hit to the northside notch.
Finally, something that neither Fangraphs nor Baseball Reference take into account in their defensive metrics is positioning. It may be that the Pirates do not have their OFers in the best position for every batter.
He doesn't make many errors, seems to take good routes, and almost always throws to the right base, so I'm left thinking he's simply lost some range with age. That agrees with my eye test, but of course my eyes may be biased by knowing that his defensive metrics have declined.
His sprint speed dropped to 61st percentile last year. He's back up at 70 this year. Somehow his range is worse though (15th to 1st percentile). I think something is janky for sure. He looks fine out there to me. Like solidly average.
This Marlins club, as bad as they are, have a ton of former stud prospects.
Baseball's so damn hard.
Booyah!!! #70 in the books. Series sweep and season series sweep! Raise it!!
Bednar and Broomsticks! Or more accurately Bednar and Beeksticks
raise it!
Pirates save situations should be sponsored by Pepto Bismol.
BN is missing some prime sponsorship dollars here!
🏴☠️X70
whew
Has to be a low moment for Bednar. Removed in the 9th with the game on the line. Not that he didn't deserve it.
Error didn't help.
Couldn’t really comprehend why IKF’s WAR was so high this year when the Pirates acquired him. “It’s his defensive” they said. The eye test tells me he is average at best on the left side of the diamond and the arm is mid.
Was watching from my phone but didn’t seem like that was a bad pitch from Bednar, hitter just happened to get ahold of it
Pache did the same thing the other night too. Everyone still wondering why the 3B coach held the would be tying run at 3rd…..
I had the Holderman fear for a minute there.
Get yourself braced for some Bednar fear.
Oh mama
…. I’m in fear for my life from the long arm of the law. Lawman has put an end to my running and I’m so far from my home……
I can't stress enough how little I want to hear this at any Pittsburgh sporting event.
Lol! Just came to mind cause the song came out in high school for me an everyone had it on their party tapes in college. Ingrained in my head
Nick Yorke just picked up his third hit today, a home run. Guy is playing so good
Make that four. Triple short of a cycle.
He better tone it down. The Mendoza Line is the ticket to PNC!
Needs more seasoning…
He's also hitting the ball too hard, all 4 hits over 100mph off the bat.
He's too good for this team.
Plus a stolen base too
Can't wait for Alika Williams next opportunity with the big club!
I forgot they played early today.
Going to feel weird with just Altoona playing tonight now
Tip of the cap to Bailey Falter. Outstanding start.
Cruz with a sliding catch that actually made sense.