Those are examples of one reason, apart from his speed, that he may be a high-BABIP hitter. With a normal hitter those balls aren't hit quite so hard and the fielders might get both of them, or at least the second one (couldn't see the first too well).
What continues to impress me is his hustle. He’s not admiring anything. He crushes the ball and flies out of the box, even on his HRs. Again, I hope he never loses that.
I think we can safely say Kelly is anything but a Shelton disciple. Bringing in Santana to clean up for Ashcraft was not something we saw from Shelton. He’s only 30ish games into being a manager, and he’ll make mistakes, but I really like what I’ve seen and heard from Kelly.
Point was if Cherington was dictating day-to-day lineup decisions, I’d imagine Pham would be out there a lot more.
Maybe Shelton felt the need to play Pham and was being a good company man, but Kelly looks like he’s focused on winning - with an example being using the same lineup in a day game following last night’s game.
I really just think he’s a bit different from a lot of their past managers. I’ve talked with him a few times and have also met Leyland a couple (though most of my what I know of Leyland comes from interviews and stories from others). I won’t go into detail, but my impression is Kelly is awfully similar in a lot of ways.
Long story short, I believe the quick hook of Falter two starts ago and Pham immediately playing less (in addition to the Mlod comment you highlighted) are the kind of things we can expect going forward. I’m admittedly biased, but I’m hoping the team “lucked” into a quality manager that a small market teams needs (every little bit helps!) to try to succeed.
Hayes is batting .320 over the last seven games. With him starting to see the ball better, hopefully he starts driving the ball more. Homer yesterday to show for it. These bloop singles the other way are maddening.
On an unrelated note, I find it extremely odd that BC just reiterated the other day that Mlodzinski was going to focus on starting, only to call him back up as a reliever days later. What changed?
Also unrelated, with Endy injuring his elbow again and potentially going under the knife for the second time in 2 years, I can’t recall a position player receiving Tommy John twice. Especially this close together. Botch job the first time?
I’m having flashbacks to the team doc saying Jared Jones’ elbow was stable… apples and oranges, I know. I just feel like any time the team doc says “we don’t think it’s that bad”, it still almost always ends with another procedure anyway.
Since being sent down, Mlodzinski has pitched 21 innings in his 4 starts and only given up 2 runs since being sent down. It seemed Ashcraft was going to have the Luis Ortiz role from last year as the long reliever/spot starter. Kelly may like Ashcraft more in the short relief role now which opens up the Luiz Ortiz role for Mlodzinski.... then again maybe Kelly want Mlodzinski for short relief.
I could be wrong, but when Shelton was manager it seemed Cherrington was calling the shots. Now it seems like Kelly is calling the shots as Cherrington watches.
I look at Hayes' batting profile on Savant and wow is it screwy. He stands deep in the box but intercepts the ball slightly out front (although like a lot of this year's Pirates, he has toned that down a lot). His swing is compact, but his bat speed keeps dropping year over year.
The upside for Hayes is that he might be the guy who got most messed up by the old batting philosophy. I wish Savant had a way to tighten the advanced stats down to a specific span. It would be interesting to see if Hayes has changed anything.
That said, I'd be stunned if Hayes is ever more than a bloop hitter with occasional pop. Short of making a major adjustment to his hitting style.
There are some here who get very, very angry if you suggest that the Pirates were constantly trying to get guys to pull the ball and make contact in front of the plate throughout their system during the first 5 years of Cherryball.
But at the risk of sending some folk to the moon, I have to agree with you that there are indications that the Haines effect is wearing off the major-league club and that everyone in the system seems less obsessed with getting out in front of pitches.
Risking soft contact in order to try to foul off some pitches and get a few more pitches that might be good pitches to hit seems to be a much better strategy than standing with the bat on your shoulder waiting for that one perfect pitch. Of course, I am sure that the wonderful analytics team that Cherington has assembled has accounted for foul balls in their rigorous analysis of batting metrics.
What's funny about the out-in-front philosophy is that it does benefit specific players. Oneil Cruz, for example. The problem is that not everyone is Oneil Cruz. As we've seen with Hank in recent outings, some guys benefit from getting a longer look at pitches. Cruz can be out in front because he's a freak.
It was based on a superficial analysis of batted ball profiles during the early to mid 2010s that took no account of foul balls, runners advancing on outs, sacrifice flies, the increasing velocity of pitches, and so forth. Haines was at the forefront of the movement and parlayed his zealotry for it into 2 coaching jobs. Cherrington bought in hook, line, and sinker (though, in his defense, so did a number of other GMs).
This is what happens when dilettantes discover statistics for the first time and think that they have found a solution to every problem. Statistics requires a careful and critical analysis, always with an eye toward the real world and what variables correlate with the subject under analysis. If you throw out important variables (such as the importance of fouling some pitches off to try to get a better one to hit), your statistical analysis is not just faulty, it will lead to major problems if you try to use in practice, which we have seen for the past 5 years with the Pirates.
One of the big problems in MLB is that someone who can talk a few numbers is a stats guy. There still aren't many people talking about actual stats concepts in baseball.
I'd die to hear one MLB analytics person one time mention kurtosis and tailedness, for example. Just as an acknowledgement that every model has vulnerabilities that make it prone to falloff under certain conditions.
I would like to see them hire real mathematicians, or people with an applied science background, instead of liberal arts majors from Amherst to do their analytics.
I would expect Hayes to get somewhere closer to .680 OPS.
That said, his numbers on Savant are frightening. Especially if you chart them over years. From 2023 to 2025, Hayes has fallen off a cliff -- and not just in the traditional numbers. His EV has cratered. His contested pitch rate has cratered. He looks like a guy in his early 30s who's just cratering on his way to eventually playing a couple year in Japan, Korea, or Mexico.
With all deference to Savant, we can all see this with the eye test. He is not improving, and he's going to be a singles hitter like IKF for the rest of his Pirate years. We're just going to have to try and learn to live with that.
Yeah but, most guys at least have a couple of metrics that commend the idea they might deserve a few PAs. For example, Spencer Horwitz is at least looking good on launch angle or Henry Davis looks good on bat speed. Hayes looks bad across all the metric now. Even a couple of years ago, Hayes had some good metrics going his way.
I'm almost always the low guy on Manager impact but man, this is the kind of game that moves me.
Doesn't take a ton of imagination to see how a slow hook on Ashcraft could've spiraled for the player and team. Now it's a win and move on instead of a demoralized locker room saying without saying it's the rook who blew it.
It's quite possible that managing is more about limiting the downside than getting as much upside as possible.
I do stand by my belief that bullpen management, especially based on leverage index, is the key thing a manager can do to help or hurt his team. Nothing in the Sheltie-to-Kelly shift has changed my mind.
Ticket prices look triple what they were last year. Not going this year. Last year I made the drive to see Skenes dominate. He started the game with 7 straight strike outs.
Griffin hit by pitch, steals 2nd, scores on a Valdez single.
https://www.mlb.com/video/konnor-griffin-s-two-doubles?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share
Griffin's doubles today
Those are examples of one reason, apart from his speed, that he may be a high-BABIP hitter. With a normal hitter those balls aren't hit quite so hard and the fielders might get both of them, or at least the second one (couldn't see the first too well).
What continues to impress me is his hustle. He’s not admiring anything. He crushes the ball and flies out of the box, even on his HRs. Again, I hope he never loses that.
Later another double.
And a second double in the 10th.
And another.
Jackson Jobe to have TJS. Another young arm probably out until '27. Detroit might be looking for some starter depth.
Heaney for McGonigle
I wonder what pieces it would take to get him but yes please.
Maybe Keller
Hat tip to Davis. Playing a full day game after a night game and contributing offensively with a hit and a run.
The BP minus Ashcraft looked stellar and Cutch passes Clemente on the Pirates’ homer list. It was a good day!
It was clear that Ashcraft didn’t have it today so appreciate them getting him out quickly
Kelly was asked about Mlod’s role. Answer was, whatever we need, he’s a big league pitcher we need him here.
Holy shit, where’s this been for six years?
Gotta love it.
I think we can safely say Kelly is anything but a Shelton disciple. Bringing in Santana to clean up for Ashcraft was not something we saw from Shelton. He’s only 30ish games into being a manager, and he’ll make mistakes, but I really like what I’ve seen and heard from Kelly.
He had all that time to watch Leyland and five+ years to watch Shelton. I think he chose wisely.
I assumed Ben was always tying Shelton up with some of these decisions but maybe he really just sucked a lot more than I thought he did
If Cherington refuses to cut Pham to cover his ass, Kelly’s doing him no favors by keeping him stuck to the bench…
Are you thinking Kelly should be playing him some?
Heck no!
Point was if Cherington was dictating day-to-day lineup decisions, I’d imagine Pham would be out there a lot more.
Maybe Shelton felt the need to play Pham and was being a good company man, but Kelly looks like he’s focused on winning - with an example being using the same lineup in a day game following last night’s game.
Maybe Kelly’s in a better position to push back more, who knows.
Or maybe Shelton is a dodo.
I really just think he’s a bit different from a lot of their past managers. I’ve talked with him a few times and have also met Leyland a couple (though most of my what I know of Leyland comes from interviews and stories from others). I won’t go into detail, but my impression is Kelly is awfully similar in a lot of ways.
Long story short, I believe the quick hook of Falter two starts ago and Pham immediately playing less (in addition to the Mlod comment you highlighted) are the kind of things we can expect going forward. I’m admittedly biased, but I’m hoping the team “lucked” into a quality manager that a small market teams needs (every little bit helps!) to try to succeed.
I wondered the same thing. Like maybe Shelton was Cherrington's boy, but Kelly is Nutting's boy....
Got it, I was misunderstanding! And good point!
Full division sweep except the battling bucs today, one game closer to first
Ill be in house to watch us take on the Cubbies tomorrow!
Hayes is batting .320 over the last seven games. With him starting to see the ball better, hopefully he starts driving the ball more. Homer yesterday to show for it. These bloop singles the other way are maddening.
On an unrelated note, I find it extremely odd that BC just reiterated the other day that Mlodzinski was going to focus on starting, only to call him back up as a reliever days later. What changed?
Also unrelated, with Endy injuring his elbow again and potentially going under the knife for the second time in 2 years, I can’t recall a position player receiving Tommy John twice. Especially this close together. Botch job the first time?
They said the ligament is "stable." Scar tissue maybe?
I’m having flashbacks to the team doc saying Jared Jones’ elbow was stable… apples and oranges, I know. I just feel like any time the team doc says “we don’t think it’s that bad”, it still almost always ends with another procedure anyway.
Since being sent down, Mlodzinski has pitched 21 innings in his 4 starts and only given up 2 runs since being sent down. It seemed Ashcraft was going to have the Luis Ortiz role from last year as the long reliever/spot starter. Kelly may like Ashcraft more in the short relief role now which opens up the Luiz Ortiz role for Mlodzinski.... then again maybe Kelly want Mlodzinski for short relief.
I could be wrong, but when Shelton was manager it seemed Cherrington was calling the shots. Now it seems like Kelly is calling the shots as Cherrington watches.
I look at Hayes' batting profile on Savant and wow is it screwy. He stands deep in the box but intercepts the ball slightly out front (although like a lot of this year's Pirates, he has toned that down a lot). His swing is compact, but his bat speed keeps dropping year over year.
The upside for Hayes is that he might be the guy who got most messed up by the old batting philosophy. I wish Savant had a way to tighten the advanced stats down to a specific span. It would be interesting to see if Hayes has changed anything.
That said, I'd be stunned if Hayes is ever more than a bloop hitter with occasional pop. Short of making a major adjustment to his hitting style.
There are some here who get very, very angry if you suggest that the Pirates were constantly trying to get guys to pull the ball and make contact in front of the plate throughout their system during the first 5 years of Cherryball.
But at the risk of sending some folk to the moon, I have to agree with you that there are indications that the Haines effect is wearing off the major-league club and that everyone in the system seems less obsessed with getting out in front of pitches.
Risking soft contact in order to try to foul off some pitches and get a few more pitches that might be good pitches to hit seems to be a much better strategy than standing with the bat on your shoulder waiting for that one perfect pitch. Of course, I am sure that the wonderful analytics team that Cherington has assembled has accounted for foul balls in their rigorous analysis of batting metrics.
I thought his approach was the complete opposite, hit the ball deeper in the zone.
What's funny about the out-in-front philosophy is that it does benefit specific players. Oneil Cruz, for example. The problem is that not everyone is Oneil Cruz. As we've seen with Hank in recent outings, some guys benefit from getting a longer look at pitches. Cruz can be out in front because he's a freak.
It was based on a superficial analysis of batted ball profiles during the early to mid 2010s that took no account of foul balls, runners advancing on outs, sacrifice flies, the increasing velocity of pitches, and so forth. Haines was at the forefront of the movement and parlayed his zealotry for it into 2 coaching jobs. Cherrington bought in hook, line, and sinker (though, in his defense, so did a number of other GMs).
This is what happens when dilettantes discover statistics for the first time and think that they have found a solution to every problem. Statistics requires a careful and critical analysis, always with an eye toward the real world and what variables correlate with the subject under analysis. If you throw out important variables (such as the importance of fouling some pitches off to try to get a better one to hit), your statistical analysis is not just faulty, it will lead to major problems if you try to use in practice, which we have seen for the past 5 years with the Pirates.
One of the big problems in MLB is that someone who can talk a few numbers is a stats guy. There still aren't many people talking about actual stats concepts in baseball.
I'd die to hear one MLB analytics person one time mention kurtosis and tailedness, for example. Just as an acknowledgement that every model has vulnerabilities that make it prone to falloff under certain conditions.
I would like to see them hire real mathematicians, or people with an applied science background, instead of liberal arts majors from Amherst to do their analytics.
Agree with that. But there is no adjustment coming. He is what he is.
I would expect Hayes to get somewhere closer to .680 OPS.
That said, his numbers on Savant are frightening. Especially if you chart them over years. From 2023 to 2025, Hayes has fallen off a cliff -- and not just in the traditional numbers. His EV has cratered. His contested pitch rate has cratered. He looks like a guy in his early 30s who's just cratering on his way to eventually playing a couple year in Japan, Korea, or Mexico.
With all deference to Savant, we can all see this with the eye test. He is not improving, and he's going to be a singles hitter like IKF for the rest of his Pirate years. We're just going to have to try and learn to live with that.
Yeah but, most guys at least have a couple of metrics that commend the idea they might deserve a few PAs. For example, Spencer Horwitz is at least looking good on launch angle or Henry Davis looks good on bat speed. Hayes looks bad across all the metric now. Even a couple of years ago, Hayes had some good metrics going his way.
Could simply be his back issues, he supposedly made swing changes to mitigate his back problems. But he needs to be better regardless.
I’d be happy with a split of the Cubs series. Tough stretch coming up.
GameDay 69 a success.
If you are going to win one game a year, let it be this one lol
Harumph!
Nicccceeee
So you like fishing and Phish?
13 days
Twins claimed Wentz. Whatever.
There's a new Sherriff in town and his name is Donnie Kelly.
16-12 with DK?
I'm almost always the low guy on Manager impact but man, this is the kind of game that moves me.
Doesn't take a ton of imagination to see how a slow hook on Ashcraft could've spiraled for the player and team. Now it's a win and move on instead of a demoralized locker room saying without saying it's the rook who blew it.
It's quite possible that managing is more about limiting the downside than getting as much upside as possible.
I do stand by my belief that bullpen management, especially based on leverage index, is the key thing a manager can do to help or hurt his team. Nothing in the Sheltie-to-Kelly shift has changed my mind.
16-15. But my 77 win prediction is back in play!
So is my World Series bet!
What world would that be?
A just world.
What Buccoboy said: What world would that be?
Five of six for the Pirates didn't seem possible at certain points this season
Five of six games where they scored one run seemed possible.
Possible enough I might go back and check to see if that actually happened because it would surprise me
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I don't blame you for thinkin it.
Who would thunk it that Bailey Freakin Falter would be the first SP to 5 wins? Well, other than his fan club here on this board 🤣🤣
More wild stat: Falter has as many wins as Keller and Paul Skenes, COMBINED
Again, who would have thunk it!!
raise it!
BOOYAH!!!!!! Another series win!!!!! On to Chi town and see if the Pirates can’t give the Cubs some humiliations galore!!!!! Raise it!!!!
Yes, I love baseball in Wrigley. Always a packed house, special place.
Can we split, or better?
With our pitching, I'd like to think a split is the floor. We'll see if we're up to it.
Ticket prices look triple what they were last year. Not going this year. Last year I made the drive to see Skenes dominate. He started the game with 7 straight strike outs.
I'm going on fathers day with my grandson, brother and other grand pa. Other grand pa is a big shooter with an insurance agency and has box seats.
Same. I was there too. Looked at seat geek yesterday and there's no way I'm paying those prices. I'll go see him against Milwaukee in a week or two.
I remember that. I think you said you rode your bike while I just kept geing re-routed home because of traffic.
You saw a classic! Hard to ever top that game.
The Bednar resurgence is just a wonderful thing.
🏴☠️