I definitely belong to the school that thinks a mgr has minimal impact on W/L, like maybe a couple wins a year. And there’s a long list of causes for the Pirates’ improvement under Kelly that I’d say are circumstantial, not really due to Kelly.
But I’m starting to think Kelly’s impact has been an outlier, really large. Maybe the Nutting/Cherington/Shelton Axis of Who-Gives-a-Shit eroded the team’s play way more than anyone could have guessed and Kelly broke the chain. Definitely, when your hitting reeks and you only can win 2-1 or 3-2, you have to scrape for every meager advantage and forget about tomorrow, which Shelton wouldn’t do and Kelly does. Today is yet another game I don’t see them winning under Shelton.
I've wondered if Shelton added unnecessary pressure on the players by frequently citing execution after losses. Kelly is more positive in his postgame comments and hasn't yet called out an individual for not executing.
Managers also seem to become less effective after a few years when messaging may seem stale and/or their energy level drops. We had gotten to that point with Shelton, which was apparent to most of us by the end of last season.
On a team like the Yankees, who put up 6 or 7 runs routinely, a manager doesn't make much difference one way or another, but on a team that is trying to grind out 3-2 wins most days, a manager makes a huge difference. This is in general.
In the case of the Pirates, the demoralization of playing on a bad team is compounded when no one seems to care, and the manager is constantly throwing players under the bus in public. Bringing in anyone who cares and who doesn't throw his players under the bus at the press conference after every game is bound to make an outsized difference.
I also think there had to be a feeling of inevitability of something had to happen and that just left a stench and the firing of Shelton relieved that pressure. I am in the same boat as you are regarding mgr impact (3 games or so a year) but in this case I think it was not just the manager change but also other factors (ie. who gave the green light to make Pham the 5th outfielder, if Kelly he deserves the credit). While BRey is not tearing it up he has been better post Shelton (was that just inevitable??). And while Horowitz has not been very good, he has been better than previous versions at 1B and jettisoning Jack early on (he was really bad) also helped although that came under Shelton, Kelly did not have to survive the Pham and Suwinski combined portion of the season.
This is gonna sound like a dumb statement, but I was thinking last night during Kelly's post-game, when he said, "We got guys on at the end and had a chance to score," he's implying, "we should've scored". Whereas when Shelton used to say the same thing, it came off more like, "it's baseball, hey, whaddya gonna do?"
heads up to my nerd bros, Longenhagen linked his minor league statcast sheet in his chat today. I filtered for the two Pirate clubs with data, Indy and Bradenton:
Just my reading of it, but there's not a lot that pops out versus what a regular reader here would already know. Guys like Griffin and Plaz are the ones to watch.
The only really "hmmm, interesting" thing I see on the whole list is Derek Berg. 91.2 EV, 10-degree LA from an over .700 OPS catcher is interesting to me. Given what we've already seen with catchers learning the art of catching while also having to hit (Hank), it's nice to see Berg out there with some numbers that suggest who could hit like a big boy some day.
GMBC certainly has his faults, but he does keep the cupboard stocked with catchers.
Just watched the replay of the Cruz to IKF to Davis play at the plate which was huge in this game. I was shocked to see Cruz double clutch on his throw to IKF, which took more time, but my read of that is Cruz changed his mind as he readied to throw. He was going to attempt an air mail to home, BUT (I think) he decided to hit the cutoff man instead. If that is the case then well done Oneil. That was the smart play and the right play that helped that work out. IKF then threw a beautiful throw to home that is a catcher’s dream-one hop torso high.
All kinds of Piratey events in this game, but an impressive win. The macabre dance of Skenes’ excellence and the Pirates inept offense continues to play out, but they did win!
Glad Alex Presley is highlighting the relay, especially IKF’s role—fields a short hop, turns and throws in one motion, making a perfect throw to Davis.
But they knew Stone was doubtful. They knew that Glasnow was made of glass and had never pitched more than half a season in 8 years in the MLB, yet they gave him a 5-year contract at close to $30 million per. They knew that Gonsolin had a long track record of injuries and had never pitched more than 100 innings or so in a season. Same applies to Sheehan. They knew Kershaw had pretty much pitched out his arm and would miss most of the first half, but brought him back anyway. They spent a ton of money on a bunch of pretty dubious guys all with long injury histories. It is not shocking that all these guys who have spent half or more of their careers injured, are all injured. The only real surprise is Snell.
For all that money, they could have signed a couple less spectacular guys with a long track record of eating innings, and they would have been fine with their lineup. They chose to gamble when there was no need for it.
I like him as a multiple inning guy which he was today. Burrows is not averaging 5 innings a start, while Kelly is not afraid to pull a starter in the 4th like he did with Falter. I like Ashcraft as a multiple inning guy as well. Obviously Mlodzinski was not ready to go deep in games at the beginning of the year. His 3 starts in Indy he was pretty dominant going 16 innings and going 2 runs.
Like you say, they would have won at least 3 more games with him in the bullpen (probably more). WAR is completely irrelevant to relievers. The difference between a bad reliever and a back-end, lights out guy can be 8 or 9 games on a team like the Pirates which play so many close games. 8 more wins for 75-87 team makes that team 83-80. 8 more wins for a team that is 81-81 puts them in the playoffs probably.
Bednar is a completely different pitcher when that curve is working for him. He’s been completely dialed in lately. Nice to see he’s still got it in him.
snakes win!
we´re one game closer to the wild card
10.5 out
Griffin with his 1st highA walk, singled earlier. Also a strike out, stolen base and run.
Valdez 3 for 3 with 2 RBI's
Btw, why were the Cubs in Expos’ unis?
I definitely belong to the school that thinks a mgr has minimal impact on W/L, like maybe a couple wins a year. And there’s a long list of causes for the Pirates’ improvement under Kelly that I’d say are circumstantial, not really due to Kelly.
But I’m starting to think Kelly’s impact has been an outlier, really large. Maybe the Nutting/Cherington/Shelton Axis of Who-Gives-a-Shit eroded the team’s play way more than anyone could have guessed and Kelly broke the chain. Definitely, when your hitting reeks and you only can win 2-1 or 3-2, you have to scrape for every meager advantage and forget about tomorrow, which Shelton wouldn’t do and Kelly does. Today is yet another game I don’t see them winning under Shelton.
I've wondered if Shelton added unnecessary pressure on the players by frequently citing execution after losses. Kelly is more positive in his postgame comments and hasn't yet called out an individual for not executing.
Managers also seem to become less effective after a few years when messaging may seem stale and/or their energy level drops. We had gotten to that point with Shelton, which was apparent to most of us by the end of last season.
On a team like the Yankees, who put up 6 or 7 runs routinely, a manager doesn't make much difference one way or another, but on a team that is trying to grind out 3-2 wins most days, a manager makes a huge difference. This is in general.
In the case of the Pirates, the demoralization of playing on a bad team is compounded when no one seems to care, and the manager is constantly throwing players under the bus in public. Bringing in anyone who cares and who doesn't throw his players under the bus at the press conference after every game is bound to make an outsized difference.
I also think there had to be a feeling of inevitability of something had to happen and that just left a stench and the firing of Shelton relieved that pressure. I am in the same boat as you are regarding mgr impact (3 games or so a year) but in this case I think it was not just the manager change but also other factors (ie. who gave the green light to make Pham the 5th outfielder, if Kelly he deserves the credit). While BRey is not tearing it up he has been better post Shelton (was that just inevitable??). And while Horowitz has not been very good, he has been better than previous versions at 1B and jettisoning Jack early on (he was really bad) also helped although that came under Shelton, Kelly did not have to survive the Pham and Suwinski combined portion of the season.
This is gonna sound like a dumb statement, but I was thinking last night during Kelly's post-game, when he said, "We got guys on at the end and had a chance to score," he's implying, "we should've scored". Whereas when Shelton used to say the same thing, it came off more like, "it's baseball, hey, whaddya gonna do?"
Yesterday not PH'ing Hank last night was his biggest error this season IMO. In no world should Pham have been at the plate to end the game.
In no world should Pham be at the plate... ever. Fixed it for you.
heads up to my nerd bros, Longenhagen linked his minor league statcast sheet in his chat today. I filtered for the two Pirate clubs with data, Indy and Bradenton:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=484%7C3390%7C&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.tracked%7Cis%5C.%5C.bunt%5C.%5C.not%7C&hfLevel=&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xobp=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on&chk_stats_swing_miss_percent=on&chk_stats_launch_speed=on&chk_stats_launch_angle=on&chk_stats_hardhit_percent=on&chk_is..tracked=on#results
NERDS!!!!
Now please translate for us dimwit meat heads
Just my reading of it, but there's not a lot that pops out versus what a regular reader here would already know. Guys like Griffin and Plaz are the ones to watch.
The only really "hmmm, interesting" thing I see on the whole list is Derek Berg. 91.2 EV, 10-degree LA from an over .700 OPS catcher is interesting to me. Given what we've already seen with catchers learning the art of catching while also having to hit (Hank), it's nice to see Berg out there with some numbers that suggest who could hit like a big boy some day.
GMBC certainly has his faults, but he does keep the cupboard stocked with catchers.
Axiel Plaz rocket ship to the prospect moon
Just watched the replay of the Cruz to IKF to Davis play at the plate which was huge in this game. I was shocked to see Cruz double clutch on his throw to IKF, which took more time, but my read of that is Cruz changed his mind as he readied to throw. He was going to attempt an air mail to home, BUT (I think) he decided to hit the cutoff man instead. If that is the case then well done Oneil. That was the smart play and the right play that helped that work out. IKF then threw a beautiful throw to home that is a catcher’s dream-one hop torso high.
He played that off the wall beautifully.
Shows the guy is learning how to play the position.
very observant!
All kinds of Piratey events in this game, but an impressive win. The macabre dance of Skenes’ excellence and the Pirates inept offense continues to play out, but they did win!
Glad Alex Presley is highlighting the relay, especially IKF’s role—fields a short hop, turns and throws in one motion, making a perfect throw to Davis.
Get a a bat or two and we could legitimately be a good club. Over .500 in the last month against pretty good competition.
Again, how we getting that bat or 2. I do understand what you are saying..
So does Mlod make a difference to this team in the bullpen or does he make a difference to this team in the bullpen?
The current rate of non-idiotic decision making for this team is approaching the level of frightening.
Now it’s up to Bob to make the next one, say bye to Cherrington….
The former.
False, it’s clearly the latter. Anyone can see it.
The Dodgers are going to stretch out Casparius for starting. I guess they haven't been following the Mlod saga.
i can't truly comprehend how impossibly terrible their starter health has been.
But they knew Stone was doubtful. They knew that Glasnow was made of glass and had never pitched more than half a season in 8 years in the MLB, yet they gave him a 5-year contract at close to $30 million per. They knew that Gonsolin had a long track record of injuries and had never pitched more than 100 innings or so in a season. Same applies to Sheehan. They knew Kershaw had pretty much pitched out his arm and would miss most of the first half, but brought him back anyway. They spent a ton of money on a bunch of pretty dubious guys all with long injury histories. It is not shocking that all these guys who have spent half or more of their careers injured, are all injured. The only real surprise is Snell.
For all that money, they could have signed a couple less spectacular guys with a long track record of eating innings, and they would have been fine with their lineup. They chose to gamble when there was no need for it.
In the Dodgers' defense, they have to keep up their reputation as every agent's first call.
Yet they keep winning.
I'd say the bullpen.
Not that his WAR would be 3 or anything, but I bet there's a chance we've won at least 3 more games if he would've just stayed in the pen
I like him as a multiple inning guy which he was today. Burrows is not averaging 5 innings a start, while Kelly is not afraid to pull a starter in the 4th like he did with Falter. I like Ashcraft as a multiple inning guy as well. Obviously Mlodzinski was not ready to go deep in games at the beginning of the year. His 3 starts in Indy he was pretty dominant going 16 innings and going 2 runs.
Like you say, they would have won at least 3 more games with him in the bullpen (probably more). WAR is completely irrelevant to relievers. The difference between a bad reliever and a back-end, lights out guy can be 8 or 9 games on a team like the Pirates which play so many close games. 8 more wins for 75-87 team makes that team 83-80. 8 more wins for a team that is 81-81 puts them in the playoffs probably.
yeah but maybe we wouldnt have been allowed to fire shelton if we had won those three games
Bednar is a completely different pitcher when that curve is working for him. He’s been completely dialed in lately. Nice to see he’s still got it in him.
and the splitter.
Looking very sharp!
IKF was the difference today between his amazing relay and the sac fly.
He knows how to play baseball and probably gets the most out of his ability.
I'd add his bunt to move Davis to 3rd to set up the first run in the 8th.
Haha, if Shelton was still mgr IKF probably would have popped up the bunt.
And credit to Kelly for leaving Santana in for the 9th.
Loved that. And his whole bullpen management today. Ferguson just let him down with the walk.
Only complaint was having Davis try to bunt after his previous ABs and facing a lefty.
And for Mlod, which I bet was his idea.
Another instance of him having very solid game management. Color me impressed once again
Damn, shades of the old Watson/Melancon days.
Man were they good. .Nothing sexy just throw strikes and get people out.
raise it
back to our winning ways
The cubs are a very solid club, im super happy we are playing competitive ball with them