Vlad ain't worth a ton honestly. He's getting $20M a year in arb mostly because he hit almost 50 dingers in 2021 and his power production has halved from there while the arb awards haven't. He's a good hitter and doesn't _just_ hit dingers but he has no baserunning value at all and his defense is a big negative. I think we could get him for Ashcraft straight up if he wasn't injured. Let's say Ashcraft and Peggy because he is. This is all assuming the Blue Jays sell at all.
Nuttin ain't paying anybody $20M. I think the fans are in for a shock when Skenes gets into arbitration. If he keeps on like he is, he could get over $20M in his first arb year. The usual assumption is that the Pirates will have Skenes for six years. I'm not sure it'll even be four. Vlad? No way.
I think Cherington likes to bring in large numbers of cheap, shitty veterans because the risk to him is low. Nuttin doesn't care whether he wastes $4M on MAT because it doesn't attract any attention. It's not all that much more, in MLB salary terms, than the minimum salary, so when MAT completely tanks, as he has, there aren't any headlines about how Cherington has blown half the team's puny payroll on a flop. But if Vlad comes in and flops, that's a different story.
It's all about Cherington keeping himself safe. Nuttin isn't going to analyze whether Cherington could have made the team better by spending money on one good player instead of a half dozen shit players. First, he doesn't understand baseball any more than I understand astrophysics and, second, he just doesn't care.
Then we should all find other hobbies honestly. That's it. It's all a sham. This sort of season is probably a 85th percentile outcome for a team unwilling to pay $20M to at least 2 of it's players in a single year just now. 85 wins and crushed in the wildcard would be the zenith. In fact, if that's what happens with Skenes I'll be around 45 right then and I will personally call it a lifetime of being a Pirates fan. Over and done with. I am not an insane person.
I honestly think we've reached a new phase with this FO, which is why I have nothing but contempt for them. With Littlefield and Huntington, we had two guys of very limited ability fumbling around within the confines of Nuttin's cheapness. They weren't up to it, but they were trying and Huntington had some interludes where he had some answers.
This FO is completely different, imo. I think Cherington knows perfectly well that what he's doing won't work, but I don't think he cares because he's keeping Nuttin happy, and that means he stays in the job. He has plans he's formed for the Pirates and winning isn't in the picture.
The fans are just a nuisance. Nuttin will make his profits from MLB's central revenues and from revenue sharing. Attendance at PNC won't totally crater because they'll get some visiting fans; that's been a large part of most of their crowds for several years. I seriously don't understand how anybody could have followed this team for the past five years, especially this year, and still believe that this FO cares in the least about winning.
Back in the day, I argued that the McClatchyfield strategy had Littlefield bringing in enough talent to keep the Drive for 75 in play every season. One problem for Littlefield was his unwillingness to draft or sign quality amateurs. He lived off the remnants of Bonifay's tenure and from the dumpster dive players who had value. Sometimes Littlefield got lucky. Perez and Bay were acquired for Giles. Freddie Sanchez and Mike Gonzalez were acquired from the Red Sox who committed a blunder here. But, his luck would eventually run out. Eventually, he would find himself with too few players to trade. The Drive for 75, since he failed to acquire quality amateurs, would appear ridiculous. Littlefield's teams would consistently fail to win 70 games. Then 60 games. It took passing over Matt Weiters for Daniel Moskos to expose the sham McClatchyfield were perpetrating on the fans and MLB. Nutting took over and gave some of the fans what they wanted: They drafted Pedr Alvarez, thus signaling a new era. They then drafted Taillon, who was cursed. They would go on to spend in the draft, eventually breaking it. Huntington had his virtues. Early on, his dumpster diving paid off. Burnett, Liriano, Martin, Volquez and others had career resurgence. He saw something in Charkie Morton that others did not, trading for Ground Chuck when Nate McLouth was near to his peak value. If one can find a difference between Huntington and Cherringon's regimes, Huntington's dumpster dives worked out and Cherringon's haven't. Cherringon has had more money to spend on amateurs save for the year Huntington broke the draft. But Cherringon's trades haven't worked out at all. His dumpster dives produced players to flip at the deadlines but not players who gave the Pirates multiple seasons of 2 to 4 WAR baseball. That seems to be Cherringon's strategy: Make trades to seed the minor league teams. Not long ago that plan seemed to be working. But it was never wholly successful. And so, Cherringon's teams are falling short. Too few of his position player prospects have developed into quality MLers. His dumpster dives only bring back lottery tickets. If the 2024 Pirates could hit, we might wonder if Skenes would win the Cy Young award.
Nutting listens to his baseball people. Cherringon was an in-demand candidate for multiple GM positions. Why would he come to Pittsburgh if he had not gotten assurances from Nutting that the money would be there when it was needed. Cherringon could have remained in Toronto. He didn't need the job. The development failures with respect to position players have damaged the rebuild. That's on Cherrington. They may cost him his job if Nutting refuses to open his wallet.
I believe Cherrington may merit more time to finish his build and that Nutting needs to spend more on ML FAs. Yet, if the past is any guide to the future, Nutting will prove to lacking. And Cherrington needs to fix the development system.
I thought the FO was just dumb and slow and maybe they'd figure out they need to rush real hard to catch up to the pitching. I even think I just laid out a feasible plan in this freaking thread to add Bleday and Vlad and Pham and Pillar and actually compete for a Wildcard this year while retaining Vlad and Bleday for next year (Bleday for longer than that) that wouldn't crush the system. So what, Vlad would cost $32-ish miillon over a year and a half? If he stayed healthy he'd be guaranteed to be the best 1B in how long? Draft Kurtz or Tibbs this draft and you could be ready to replace him. It's not even that hard to build a reasonable plan to have a competitive roster when you have for real pitching.
Thanks. I was thinking he was a free agent at the end of the year. Then I think the Blue Jays won't trade him, unless they get a big prospect in return.
I'd overpay for him if the Blue Jays would get off their asses and trade him soon. Forget it if not. Vlad and Bleday plus one of Pham or Kevin Pillar make this team a legit wildcard contender.
Cutch
Reynolds
Bleday
Vlad
Cruz
Pillar or Pham
Joe/Olivares
Nick Gonzo
Bart/Davis
To be honest, I'd consider trying to get both Pham and Pillar thinking about it a bit more. Depends on how the 40 man shakes out with trades to get Bleday. Have to think a few of Jack/Bae/Peguero/Williams go out the door. Maybe even Holderman which is tough right now with Bednar down.
For a couple months I thought Skenes was gonna be one of those guys where the lineup just went nuts every time out. They scored 51 runs in his first 7 starts.
Regression. He may not see another run from Ben's offense the rest of the year. He's already had about three years' worth of support from this clown show of an offense.
Perhaps you missed the first part of the post. That crappy offense averaged 7+ runs in his first 7 starts. And BRey and Tellez weren't even hitting in May.
WTM might be right with regression. But it seems your toggle is stuck on "bitch".
Well they are. A couple of better everyday guys and this is a decent above .500 team. The fact that our break out 3rd baseman from last year has severely regressed has hurt this team. I thought he might be a dark horse MVP candidate after his 2nd half last year. Wrong!
193 PAs from August 10th on of 131 wRC+ were just a hot streak in an ocean of 1817 mediocre ones (94 wRC+). I'm not sure 2+ starters out of 9 being needed puts this team that close, honestly. Can't say I trust Cherington to find them. It's probably actually 3 starters given Hayes being a dud.
Two outs bases empty. In that situation, you might as well go for the long ball like Reynolds did. He did just that, even with his hitting streak on the line. Some guys would have just tried to slap a single.
somebody out there thinks we can acquire Vlad without giving up Bubba or Termarr?
Vlad ain't worth a ton honestly. He's getting $20M a year in arb mostly because he hit almost 50 dingers in 2021 and his power production has halved from there while the arb awards haven't. He's a good hitter and doesn't _just_ hit dingers but he has no baserunning value at all and his defense is a big negative. I think we could get him for Ashcraft straight up if he wasn't injured. Let's say Ashcraft and Peggy because he is. This is all assuming the Blue Jays sell at all.
There are 3 wild card spots. Here are fangraphs chances of teams making the play-offs
Braves 94%
Padres 63%
Mets 43%
Cardinals 40%
Giants 24%
Dbacks 20%
Cubs 10%
Pirates(39-43) and Reds... both under 10%.
Without trying to be negative, I don't think we are in a position to be getting rentals yet..
Vlad would be here next year too albeit for $22M ish
Nuttin ain't paying anybody $20M. I think the fans are in for a shock when Skenes gets into arbitration. If he keeps on like he is, he could get over $20M in his first arb year. The usual assumption is that the Pirates will have Skenes for six years. I'm not sure it'll even be four. Vlad? No way.
what does nutting care if next year we have a vlad instead of a chapman, martin perez, and marco?
They _did_ just totally waste $30M this year which is probably the best argument to Nutting to shitcan Cherington.
I think Cherington likes to bring in large numbers of cheap, shitty veterans because the risk to him is low. Nuttin doesn't care whether he wastes $4M on MAT because it doesn't attract any attention. It's not all that much more, in MLB salary terms, than the minimum salary, so when MAT completely tanks, as he has, there aren't any headlines about how Cherington has blown half the team's puny payroll on a flop. But if Vlad comes in and flops, that's a different story.
It's all about Cherington keeping himself safe. Nuttin isn't going to analyze whether Cherington could have made the team better by spending money on one good player instead of a half dozen shit players. First, he doesn't understand baseball any more than I understand astrophysics and, second, he just doesn't care.
spent the same in the offseason before and had a extension signed on opening day the past three years
if the same happens next year then $30 mill to vlad and a reliver (maybe so chapman again) and buyout JJ´s arb years sound great to me
Then we should all find other hobbies honestly. That's it. It's all a sham. This sort of season is probably a 85th percentile outcome for a team unwilling to pay $20M to at least 2 of it's players in a single year just now. 85 wins and crushed in the wildcard would be the zenith. In fact, if that's what happens with Skenes I'll be around 45 right then and I will personally call it a lifetime of being a Pirates fan. Over and done with. I am not an insane person.
I honestly think we've reached a new phase with this FO, which is why I have nothing but contempt for them. With Littlefield and Huntington, we had two guys of very limited ability fumbling around within the confines of Nuttin's cheapness. They weren't up to it, but they were trying and Huntington had some interludes where he had some answers.
This FO is completely different, imo. I think Cherington knows perfectly well that what he's doing won't work, but I don't think he cares because he's keeping Nuttin happy, and that means he stays in the job. He has plans he's formed for the Pirates and winning isn't in the picture.
The fans are just a nuisance. Nuttin will make his profits from MLB's central revenues and from revenue sharing. Attendance at PNC won't totally crater because they'll get some visiting fans; that's been a large part of most of their crowds for several years. I seriously don't understand how anybody could have followed this team for the past five years, especially this year, and still believe that this FO cares in the least about winning.
Back in the day, I argued that the McClatchyfield strategy had Littlefield bringing in enough talent to keep the Drive for 75 in play every season. One problem for Littlefield was his unwillingness to draft or sign quality amateurs. He lived off the remnants of Bonifay's tenure and from the dumpster dive players who had value. Sometimes Littlefield got lucky. Perez and Bay were acquired for Giles. Freddie Sanchez and Mike Gonzalez were acquired from the Red Sox who committed a blunder here. But, his luck would eventually run out. Eventually, he would find himself with too few players to trade. The Drive for 75, since he failed to acquire quality amateurs, would appear ridiculous. Littlefield's teams would consistently fail to win 70 games. Then 60 games. It took passing over Matt Weiters for Daniel Moskos to expose the sham McClatchyfield were perpetrating on the fans and MLB. Nutting took over and gave some of the fans what they wanted: They drafted Pedr Alvarez, thus signaling a new era. They then drafted Taillon, who was cursed. They would go on to spend in the draft, eventually breaking it. Huntington had his virtues. Early on, his dumpster diving paid off. Burnett, Liriano, Martin, Volquez and others had career resurgence. He saw something in Charkie Morton that others did not, trading for Ground Chuck when Nate McLouth was near to his peak value. If one can find a difference between Huntington and Cherringon's regimes, Huntington's dumpster dives worked out and Cherringon's haven't. Cherringon has had more money to spend on amateurs save for the year Huntington broke the draft. But Cherringon's trades haven't worked out at all. His dumpster dives produced players to flip at the deadlines but not players who gave the Pirates multiple seasons of 2 to 4 WAR baseball. That seems to be Cherringon's strategy: Make trades to seed the minor league teams. Not long ago that plan seemed to be working. But it was never wholly successful. And so, Cherringon's teams are falling short. Too few of his position player prospects have developed into quality MLers. His dumpster dives only bring back lottery tickets. If the 2024 Pirates could hit, we might wonder if Skenes would win the Cy Young award.
Nutting listens to his baseball people. Cherringon was an in-demand candidate for multiple GM positions. Why would he come to Pittsburgh if he had not gotten assurances from Nutting that the money would be there when it was needed. Cherringon could have remained in Toronto. He didn't need the job. The development failures with respect to position players have damaged the rebuild. That's on Cherrington. They may cost him his job if Nutting refuses to open his wallet.
I believe Cherrington may merit more time to finish his build and that Nutting needs to spend more on ML FAs. Yet, if the past is any guide to the future, Nutting will prove to lacking. And Cherrington needs to fix the development system.
I thought the FO was just dumb and slow and maybe they'd figure out they need to rush real hard to catch up to the pitching. I even think I just laid out a feasible plan in this freaking thread to add Bleday and Vlad and Pham and Pillar and actually compete for a Wildcard this year while retaining Vlad and Bleday for next year (Bleday for longer than that) that wouldn't crush the system. So what, Vlad would cost $32-ish miillon over a year and a half? If he stayed healthy he'd be guaranteed to be the best 1B in how long? Draft Kurtz or Tibbs this draft and you could be ready to replace him. It's not even that hard to build a reasonable plan to have a competitive roster when you have for real pitching.
Thanks. I was thinking he was a free agent at the end of the year. Then I think the Blue Jays won't trade him, unless they get a big prospect in return.
I'd overpay for him if the Blue Jays would get off their asses and trade him soon. Forget it if not. Vlad and Bleday plus one of Pham or Kevin Pillar make this team a legit wildcard contender.
Cutch
Reynolds
Bleday
Vlad
Cruz
Pillar or Pham
Joe/Olivares
Nick Gonzo
Bart/Davis
To be honest, I'd consider trying to get both Pham and Pillar thinking about it a bit more. Depends on how the 40 man shakes out with trades to get Bleday. Have to think a few of Jack/Bae/Peguero/Williams go out the door. Maybe even Holderman which is tough right now with Bednar down.
I would love to have a guy like Pham around all our young guys. Dude is a psycho but in a good way on the field.
Is Shawn Ross the new Aaron Shackelford?
Gah! Termarr Johnson with a 2 hit game.
call him up to the big league squad
did you see him tee off against MLB pitching last march?
Then we'd be wasting Termarr, Skenes and Jones service time in the same year!
How many ks?
1
So an inverse Termarr, got it.
For a couple months I thought Skenes was gonna be one of those guys where the lineup just went nuts every time out. They scored 51 runs in his first 7 starts.
And two in his last two.
I hear what you are saying, but Max Fried is a pretty good pitcher though.
Regression. He may not see another run from Ben's offense the rest of the year. He's already had about three years' worth of support from this clown show of an offense.
If we didn't have the 28th best offense in the league he'd probably get some run support.
Perhaps you missed the first part of the post. That crappy offense averaged 7+ runs in his first 7 starts. And BRey and Tellez weren't even hitting in May.
WTM might be right with regression. But it seems your toggle is stuck on "bitch".
Right but the 3rd worst offense in the league isn't going to sustain that for any pitcher.
Such, such, such, a frustrating team. Another should have won turns into a loss.
I read on BucsDugout `this team is close` though
Well they are. A couple of better everyday guys and this is a decent above .500 team. The fact that our break out 3rd baseman from last year has severely regressed has hurt this team. I thought he might be a dark horse MVP candidate after his 2nd half last year. Wrong!
193 PAs from August 10th on of 131 wRC+ were just a hot streak in an ocean of 1817 mediocre ones (94 wRC+). I'm not sure 2+ starters out of 9 being needed puts this team that close, honestly. Can't say I trust Cherington to find them. It's probably actually 3 starters given Hayes being a dud.
In retrospect that seems to be the case, but at the time it seemed like he had figured something out.
Hahahahahahahaha you f'ing losers. You play like you're coached and general managed.
I think we gotta take a shot at Bleday and get Pham and Gavin Sheets, too. Ofc I also think we gotta fire Shelton and Cherington first.
Also, why don't any of these fools know how to slide?
crap. As great as MATs slide was the other night, this one sucked.
Gift run happily accepted.
And happily returned
Nice sword there for Chapman
Am I right in guessing that Shelton's dumbass doesn't have anyone warming after Chapman came up limping?
0-9 wRISP. Cheringtonball.
Two outs bases empty. In that situation, you might as well go for the long ball like Reynolds did. He did just that, even with his hitting streak on the line. Some guys would have just tried to slap a single.
How did that not go out???
That’s probably the game. I don’t see them winning in extras if it gets that far. Please get rid of the automatic runner some day. Man I hate that.
Must be heavy air now. Thought Kelenic's was out as well.
he should have ran home on that misthrow to third
No way he would have been out by 10 feet
you are assuming no more errand throws
and he would've been out by a lot.
Just shorten up and get something in play