why are we still talking about this vaunted Reds core of position players as if they weren't hitting way above their heads last year and have subsequently regressed as expected?
McClain looked legit to me. I think the talk here is they have a few core hitters and the Pirates just don't. Later in the chat he said Oneil is basically just a less good Elly skillset.
Didjoo forget to check his BABIPs all through the minors? Always high. You know why that might be? 90th percentile sprint speed and hits the ball hard all over the field.
Thought you were going away. Why back so soon. Did you decide you were actually going to try and talk baseball instead of whinging?
Sure if you discount his 583 PAs at AAA and MLB which actually seems to run counter to your take haha. I can't think of a single 25 or under position player on the Pirates 40 man I'd rather have over McClain.
Yeah but we should trade him, because... well... just because... we shouldn't have quality veteran players. Such is the Stockholm Syndrom of Pirate fans.
We should trade him because our hitters suck and Nutting won't sign off on a good free agent acquisition. We should trade him because he the Pirates have the players to replace him and because of his market value. Good players are not free or cheap.
This isn't a case of Stockholm Syndrome. It an instance of rational calculation. Keeping Mitch and dumpster diving this winter is a case of Stocjholm Syndrome.
They have $35M coming off the books in expiring contracts this year. They don’t have to dumpster dive for bats. If BN signed off on that much being spent on eleventy mostly shitty FA’s, why wouldn’t he sign off on a mid-tier deal to someone for $20M?
Trading Mitch for hitting just opens another hole that is difficult to fill.
The Pirates will not spend a large amount of money per year on a single player. They never have and there is no reason to believe they will. These players require multi-year commitments and the Pirates absolutely refuse to do that. They are also completely risk averse and do not want to commit a large amount of money to one guy. That is why they will lose Skenes at least one year before they would have (maybe 2 or 3) because of his extra 6 weeks this year.
Once Mitch signed his extension he became a solid piece for their rotation for the hopefully opening window. Like you said, they will have enough money coming off the books to sign a legitimate bat. Trusting Cherington to find that bat is where skepticism comes to play in my opinion, which is what I got from your post.
They should have been more open to trade him (Bednar) at the deadline last year. Keller has exceeded what I thought he could be. I thought he was a solid 3 to good 2. He's been a top tier 2 to a solid 1 in his last 15 starts. They really have the foundation for a top 5 rotation in all of mlb for a few to several years.
Hopefully Mlod and Nicolas along with others can be the complimentary bullpen while the window opens. (I left off Bednar and Holderman because if the right deal comes along for a bat, they should jump on it.)
The percent usually isn't very high, but 2023 1 and 2 were Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll who I think both won rookie of the year, Francisco Alvarez was 3. Elly De La Cruz was 10. James Wood and Jackson Merrill were also top 20. Not sure what happened to Corbin Carroll......... But back to your point, Keller is solid and you never know with prospects.
BTV has Mayo at 50 surplus so that'd be a massive overpay with Keller coming in at 28. Sure would be nice to have a power hitting 1B but I wonder how many dingers PNC would steal from him. There's also the thing where hardly anybody has come up from AAA and hit in MLB this year. Kjersted has hit well in 50 PAs at least. He's a 29 surplus so maybe a more realistic overpay for Keller?
I will agree with that, but the Orioles cannot plan to win it all with Kimbrel closing games don’t care how well he’s currently doing. Then again, I don’t know when Bautista is coming back…
Well... yeah... I mean... I would trade anyone for a ridiculous overpay, but in the real world, there is no reason for Keller to go anywhere. He provides stability. Guys like Jones or Chandler or Ashcraft may look good now, but a guy who has done it consistently for 3 years, eating innings, keeping the team in the game in almost every start for the past 80... that's not something you get every day and there is no guarantee any of these young pitchers are going to give the Pirates that level of consistency.
Yeah, truthfully, I probably wouldn't look to trade Keller. If they were to trade from the MLB rotation, I'd be willing to part with Falter for a team willing to overpay to round out their rotation. Otherwise, the better play for the Pirates is to part with starters in the minors for big league bats with term for beyond 2024.
None of their other minor league arms are close to comparable to the value Keller holds nor what could generate an above average bat with years of control, short of that hitter showing big improvements once he becomes a Pirate (lol).
I think that the off-season is a time to look at a lot of these things (hopefully with a new GM). You can see where you are at on the budget: what holes can be filled with free agents or try to find good trade bargains for a number of positions and fill in the rest with free agents. There is no pressure to trade a guy like Falter, and the Pirates might still make a late-season surge this year, so give them a chance to do so.
That's kind of why I want them to make trades now, to give them a better chance to make a run now, with the long term goal being 2025 and beyond. No pressure to trade Falter, but that's why I say if a team was willing to overpay. Say a team had a blocked prospect (cough Mayo cough) lol
But, chances are that Free Agency still won't be their most likely path to acquiring better talent. It'd be through trades, for most cost effective and years controllable players. Whether it's the trade deadline, or off-season, I think it can get a little overblown that one provides a better opportunity than the other on seeking a "bargain".
I think trading from the one strength we have as a roster could make sense if someone is willing to pay a kings ransom, personally. Definitely don't just give the guy away or anything but I'd listen on any arm not named Skenes.
Trading Keller for one of the O's top OF prospects might not be a King's Ransom. But it's a wise trade. Perhaps the O's would include a tradeable pick if they are feeling desperate.
Weird thing. If they can hold on here they will break a 2 game losing streak. They went the entire month of June and so far in July without a 3 game win streak or a 3 game losing streak. This extends back to the first week of May
That is interesting. Obviously good that they're avoiding losing streaks but maybe not surprising with Keller, Skenes, and Jones as potential stoppers. Of concern, as Young pointed out, is that we're not seeing any winning streaks--putting together a 6-7 game winning streak would get us back in the WC conversation but with Jones and Falter out, that's very unlikely.
@Kevin H. The Pirates really haven't had success helping guys with their swings, and the previous regime was so contact-oriented I think they ended up hurting more hitters than they helped (Craig, Newman, Polanco, even Hayes who still hasn't come into power). Siani came in with a terrible, launch-angle-oriented swing, but when I saw him last year he was still doing it, even though he's the guy who should be going for contact. I think the current regime has had a hard time undoing the philosophies of the last one when it comes to player development but that's just my outside speculation.
Chill out dude. Here I am discussing it with one of the guys who founded the site so clearly it's not a problem for anyone but you and your strangely thin skin. It's also hilarious that your only comment in the entire game thread was to call another poster out for posting something in a gamethread. I bet your mother is very proud of how you turned out.
You're in here all hours of the day. You clearly don't work. You're a loud-mouthed, opinionated born loser. Your mom did a fantastic job raising a complete and total leech to society.
You've had numerous confrontations and have started to chase folks away. I'm about to jump ship, too.
I'm not the one attacking another poster's every post like an unhinged wingnut, bro. I run my own company. Have a lot of free time :) What do you do for work? I'm thinking professional actor because you sure do turn the waterworks on and off. Let me know if you do leave. I'll be sure to say goodbye.
Yes, it's laptop work. I constantly have 30 tabs open and this is one of them. You need an explainer on tabs or? You clearly don't work in tech. I'm thinking fat old auto mechanic at JiffyLube? Close?
You keep "calling me on it" and I'll keep laughing at you.
All the guys who'd have spent time with both sets of dudes would be in AAA or MLB by now, right? Also this was his article on Termarr who'd not have encountered Huntingtons guys unless Law's claiming there's a bunch of them still around.
And that's what I'm saying, is it's been (almost) five years, so they've made a slew of acquisitions by now through the draft, trade, free agency, and IFA. They've brought in contact guys. They've gotten power guys.
What philosophies are they struggling to undo, when it's their guys?
Honestly no idea. I just thought it was an interesting take and figured I'd share it here. It did feel like there was at least some incoherence in the org last year with #Nunnallygate and all that.
Caanan Smith-Nutella was released over the weekend.
"2:31
Guest: Which team’s young core would you rather have: Reds (Elly, Greene, McLain, Lodolo, etc.) or Pirates (Oneil, Jones, Skenes, Hayes, etc.)?
2:31
Ben Clemens: Reds
2:32
Ben Clemens: It’s not cut and dry, but I think that the Pirates might have no core young hitters"
Oof
why are we still talking about this vaunted Reds core of position players as if they weren't hitting way above their heads last year and have subsequently regressed as expected?
Elly is the only dude worth a damn there.
McClain looked legit to me. I think the talk here is they have a few core hitters and the Pirates just don't. Later in the chat he said Oneil is basically just a less good Elly skillset.
I think if you filter the question
It’s Skenes, Jones & O’Neil
Or
Greene, Lodolo & Elly.
McLain had a .385 babip with a 29% k rate, which screams regression.
Either way, it’ll be fun to see how it shakes out
Didjoo forget to check his BABIPs all through the minors? Always high. You know why that might be? 90th percentile sprint speed and hits the ball hard all over the field.
Thought you were going away. Why back so soon. Did you decide you were actually going to try and talk baseball instead of whinging?
His largest sample in the minors is 2022 with over 450 PAs
.300 babip
Factor in milb defense is far less superior and it looks even less sustainable.
Sure if you discount his 583 PAs at AAA and MLB which actually seems to run counter to your take haha. I can't think of a single 25 or under position player on the Pirates 40 man I'd rather have over McClain.
Booyah!! #43 in the books behind a solid outing by Mitchie the Kid! Raise it!!!
Shelton said minor hammy tightness for Cruz
Winning 10 starts with this roster backing you up by the ASG _is_ impressive. Tip of the cap, Mitch.
raise it!
Mitch the notAll-Star now one of 4 NL pitchers with double digit wins.
I'm guessing when one of the other AS pitchers bow out, Mitch will be the replacement.
10 wins and a 3.40 era are AS worthy
That tells you how good he's been by winning with this putrid offense.
Yeah but we should trade him, because... well... just because... we shouldn't have quality veteran players. Such is the Stockholm Syndrom of Pirate fans.
We should trade him because our hitters suck and Nutting won't sign off on a good free agent acquisition. We should trade him because he the Pirates have the players to replace him and because of his market value. Good players are not free or cheap.
This isn't a case of Stockholm Syndrome. It an instance of rational calculation. Keeping Mitch and dumpster diving this winter is a case of Stocjholm Syndrome.
They have $35M coming off the books in expiring contracts this year. They don’t have to dumpster dive for bats. If BN signed off on that much being spent on eleventy mostly shitty FA’s, why wouldn’t he sign off on a mid-tier deal to someone for $20M?
Trading Mitch for hitting just opens another hole that is difficult to fill.
The Pirates will not spend a large amount of money per year on a single player. They never have and there is no reason to believe they will. These players require multi-year commitments and the Pirates absolutely refuse to do that. They are also completely risk averse and do not want to commit a large amount of money to one guy. That is why they will lose Skenes at least one year before they would have (maybe 2 or 3) because of his extra 6 weeks this year.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have already committed to pay Mitch Keller between $17-$20m for each of his extension years.
The question clearly is no longer whether or not they *would* pay a relatively large sum to a single player.
It's whether or not any cheese is remaining to pay more than that.
Thus the exceptionally logical question of whether or not Mitch Keller should be that guy.
Once Mitch signed his extension he became a solid piece for their rotation for the hopefully opening window. Like you said, they will have enough money coming off the books to sign a legitimate bat. Trusting Cherington to find that bat is where skepticism comes to play in my opinion, which is what I got from your post.
Yep. Honestly, the guy to trade (although not right now for obvious reasons) in an effort to fortify the offense is Bednar.
They have no replace7ment for Bednar. The bullpen is an implosion waiting to happen. Plus, the Pirates can trade Keller AND sign a quality free agent.
They should have been more open to trade him (Bednar) at the deadline last year. Keller has exceeded what I thought he could be. I thought he was a solid 3 to good 2. He's been a top tier 2 to a solid 1 in his last 15 starts. They really have the foundation for a top 5 rotation in all of mlb for a few to several years.
Hopefully Mlod and Nicolas along with others can be the complimentary bullpen while the window opens. (I left off Bednar and Holderman because if the right deal comes along for a bat, they should jump on it.)
I mean, are the Orioles willing to give us Coby Mayo and then some? Lol
They would if the organization is rational. The O's have hitters by the ton. The Pirates have pitchers by the ton. This isn't complicated. LOL
Cause the recent track record of high profile position player prospects raking in the majors is so good. Oh wait…
The percent usually isn't very high, but 2023 1 and 2 were Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll who I think both won rookie of the year, Francisco Alvarez was 3. Elly De La Cruz was 10. James Wood and Jackson Merrill were also top 20. Not sure what happened to Corbin Carroll......... But back to your point, Keller is solid and you never know with prospects.
And Keller's could explode. You never know about pitchers. They are always high risk.
BTV has Mayo at 50 surplus so that'd be a massive overpay with Keller coming in at 28. Sure would be nice to have a power hitting 1B but I wonder how many dingers PNC would steal from him. There's also the thing where hardly anybody has come up from AAA and hit in MLB this year. Kjersted has hit well in 50 PAs at least. He's a 29 surplus so maybe a more realistic overpay for Keller?
According to BTV a sensible trade would be Holderman for Herston Kjsgdujfirncjstad. I might have misspelled his last name.
I'd love that trade but doubt the Orioles do it even if Holderman does have a lot of value.
I will agree with that, but the Orioles cannot plan to win it all with Kimbrel closing games don’t care how well he’s currently doing. Then again, I don’t know when Bautista is coming back…
The best Orioles rookie hitter this year has been the one they traded to acquire Burnes lol
Fuck*ng Brewers struck gold with Contreras and now have Adames’ replacement. Not to mention that they have like 50 guys capable of playing CF…..
Well... yeah... I mean... I would trade anyone for a ridiculous overpay, but in the real world, there is no reason for Keller to go anywhere. He provides stability. Guys like Jones or Chandler or Ashcraft may look good now, but a guy who has done it consistently for 3 years, eating innings, keeping the team in the game in almost every start for the past 80... that's not something you get every day and there is no guarantee any of these young pitchers are going to give the Pirates that level of consistency.
Why would a Pirates fan want stability. Stability here means finishing below the McClatchy Line again, again, again....
Yeah, truthfully, I probably wouldn't look to trade Keller. If they were to trade from the MLB rotation, I'd be willing to part with Falter for a team willing to overpay to round out their rotation. Otherwise, the better play for the Pirates is to part with starters in the minors for big league bats with term for beyond 2024.
Bubba. Just say Bubba!
None of their other minor league arms are close to comparable to the value Keller holds nor what could generate an above average bat with years of control, short of that hitter showing big improvements once he becomes a Pirate (lol).
Obviously Bubba is the top piece to offer. Just don't think they're going to go after the type of player that may require him.
Did not Falter just go on the IL?
I think that the off-season is a time to look at a lot of these things (hopefully with a new GM). You can see where you are at on the budget: what holes can be filled with free agents or try to find good trade bargains for a number of positions and fill in the rest with free agents. There is no pressure to trade a guy like Falter, and the Pirates might still make a late-season surge this year, so give them a chance to do so.
That's kind of why I want them to make trades now, to give them a better chance to make a run now, with the long term goal being 2025 and beyond. No pressure to trade Falter, but that's why I say if a team was willing to overpay. Say a team had a blocked prospect (cough Mayo cough) lol
But, chances are that Free Agency still won't be their most likely path to acquiring better talent. It'd be through trades, for most cost effective and years controllable players. Whether it's the trade deadline, or off-season, I think it can get a little overblown that one provides a better opportunity than the other on seeking a "bargain".
A better GM and no Bart the Ballet Dancer instructing the hitters, yeah.
I think trading from the one strength we have as a roster could make sense if someone is willing to pay a kings ransom, personally. Definitely don't just give the guy away or anything but I'd listen on any arm not named Skenes.
Trading Keller for one of the O's top OF prospects might not be a King's Ransom. But it's a wise trade. Perhaps the O's would include a tradeable pick if they are feeling desperate.
Kjerstad and their #35 or whatever, yeah. Could work out well.
Nice win today, but pretty disappointing last home series before the break.
Yesterday's loss was a tough one.
Well instead of a 5-2 home stand we limp in with a 3-4 home stand. On to Milwaukee…
Poor Jack must have done something with these umps wives or daughters, and they're determined to get him back.
I envision Jack sitting in the clubhouse “ Guys , i didn’t know who she was…..I swear! “ ala Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughan. 🤣🤣🤣
🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️
This ump sucks
Weird thing. If they can hold on here they will break a 2 game losing streak. They went the entire month of June and so far in July without a 3 game win streak or a 3 game losing streak. This extends back to the first week of May
That is interesting. Obviously good that they're avoiding losing streaks but maybe not surprising with Keller, Skenes, and Jones as potential stoppers. Of concern, as Young pointed out, is that we're not seeing any winning streaks--putting together a 6-7 game winning streak would get us back in the WC conversation but with Jones and Falter out, that's very unlikely.
Can't have winning streaks with this inconsistent offense.
Hayes for Cruz? Hopefully Cruz just had to take a crap.
#hugwatch
>Keith Law
Keith Law
· Wed
STAFF
@Kevin H. The Pirates really haven't had success helping guys with their swings, and the previous regime was so contact-oriented I think they ended up hurting more hitters than they helped (Craig, Newman, Polanco, even Hayes who still hasn't come into power). Siani came in with a terrible, launch-angle-oriented swing, but when I saw him last year he was still doing it, even though he's the guy who should be going for contact. I think the current regime has had a hard time undoing the philosophies of the last one when it comes to player development but that's just my outside speculation.
What does this have to do with the game being played?
This a game thread
Chill out dude. Here I am discussing it with one of the guys who founded the site so clearly it's not a problem for anyone but you and your strangely thin skin. It's also hilarious that your only comment in the entire game thread was to call another poster out for posting something in a gamethread. I bet your mother is very proud of how you turned out.
You're in here all hours of the day. You clearly don't work. You're a loud-mouthed, opinionated born loser. Your mom did a fantastic job raising a complete and total leech to society.
You've had numerous confrontations and have started to chase folks away. I'm about to jump ship, too.
I'm not the one attacking another poster's every post like an unhinged wingnut, bro. I run my own company. Have a lot of free time :) What do you do for work? I'm thinking professional actor because you sure do turn the waterworks on and off. Let me know if you do leave. I'll be sure to say goodbye.
You run your own company. You have a wife & kids but you’re constantly on here way more than anyone else.
You don’t actually think ppl are dumb enough to believe any of this?
I don’t chase you on the boards but when I come into the room in a game thread and you’re pasting irrelevant nonsense, I’m going to call you on it.
Yes, it's laptop work. I constantly have 30 tabs open and this is one of them. You need an explainer on tabs or? You clearly don't work in tech. I'm thinking fat old auto mechanic at JiffyLube? Close?
You keep "calling me on it" and I'll keep laughing at you.
I’m beginning to look forward to you guys going at it.
lol. I suppose it is entertaining. You just know this MFer is wearing MAGA hats, and I'd love to know where he was Jan 6th.
I was sequestered away in the basement so prying public eyes couldn't see how braindead I... wait, no, that was Joe Robinette Biden.
lol there is no more sour puss of an analyst than Keith Law, because of Kevin Newman not becoming a consistent All Star.
But also, I'm kind of confused about what he's saying?
I took it as one bad group of guys replaced another mostly
That is true, but also sounds like he's trying to credit part of Ben's regimes failures still on the previous one's failures.
All the guys who'd have spent time with both sets of dudes would be in AAA or MLB by now, right? Also this was his article on Termarr who'd not have encountered Huntingtons guys unless Law's claiming there's a bunch of them still around.
And that's what I'm saying, is it's been (almost) five years, so they've made a slew of acquisitions by now through the draft, trade, free agency, and IFA. They've brought in contact guys. They've gotten power guys.
What philosophies are they struggling to undo, when it's their guys?
Honestly no idea. I just thought it was an interesting take and figured I'd share it here. It did feel like there was at least some incoherence in the org last year with #Nunnallygate and all that.
Mitch Fucking Keller. Not an All-Star.
Keller, Aaron Nola and Jake Irvin all very close.
Keller 10-5 3.40 ERA 1.22 whip
Nola 10-4 3.48 ERA 1.03 whip
Irvin 7-6 2.80 ERA 1.00 whip