Has Ben Cherington and His Regime Found Their Niche?
The long story short answer: I don't think so
The Onset
When I think back to Neil Huntington’s tenure, the one glaring issue that stood out was translating minor league success to MLB. You remember all the names: Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco, and yes, even Nick Kingham. If you go back to 2014, Kingham even showed up on Baseball America’s Top 100.
I think back to watching Clay Holmes blow Triple-A hitters away, when he’d be around the zone. Chad Kuhl spent his time in the minors showing an ability to consistently pound the strike zone, reached the majors with a major bump in velocity, and then his control completely disappeared.
So, when the Pittsburgh Pirates decided to finally move on from Neil Huntington in 2020 to hire Ben Cherington, I welcomed it with open arms. I didn’t expect a major shift in philosophy, that being they would all of a sudden decided to attack the Free Agent market, but a hope he would bring in an era of translating prospect success to the majors. Halfway through Ben’s fourth MLB season, I’m not quite sure that is the case.
What got me thinking deeper into the subject was the Pirates recent 2023 draft haul. I’m not upset they decided to choose a glut of college relievers (specifically from the SEC), what interests me is the “why?”. Cherington draft picks finally reaching the majors is a small sample size, but I feel we can also look at the minor league side to question this focus.
Recent Draft History
If we start with the 2020 draft, Nick Gonzales has reached the majors, Carmen Mlodzinski was a SEC starter turned reliever and has reached the majors, and then Jared Jones was a prep starter who is on the cusp of reaching the majors. College pitcher Nick Garcia was traded for Connor Joe, and is now struggling in Double-A for the Colorado Rockies. College pitcher Jack Hartman was traded to Tampa Bay Rays for Ji-Man Choi, and is struggling in Low A. Then college pitcher Logan Hofmann is still struggling in High A for the Pirates.
The 2021 draft has Henry Davis in the majors. Prep pitcher Anthony Solometo is already in Double-A holding his own. Prep hitter Lonnie White Jr. is finally healthy and beginning his time in full season ball. Prep pitcher Bubba Chandler is showcasing big stuff, but with surface numbers that aren’t appealing to the eye in High A. In terms of the college pitchers selected by the Pirates, Sean Sullivan is in Double-A showing he may have a chance at a backend role. Justin Meis has been moved into a relief role in Double-A where he has struggled. Jack Carey hasn’t pitched well in now his third tour through High A. Owen Sharts hasn’t been able to find his way out of Low A, between injuries and struggles. Tyler Samaniego is having a difficult second year in Double-A. Carlos Lomeli is still in Low A struggling. Then Drew Irvine was released.
2022 draft is still fresh, but for what it’s worth there is already four college arms already pitching in some capacity at Greensboro: Thomas Harrington, Jaycob Deese, Cy Nielson, and JP Massey. That in and of itself could probably be seen as a step in the right direction, but I’m not sure if it’s enough to believe in their 2023 draft direction.
Across the League Trends
When you think about the Cleveland Guardians, you think of a pitching factory. It could be a first rounder (Gavin Williams), second rounder (Logan Allen), fifth rounder (Tanner Bibee), or a random lottery ticket trade acquisition (Emmanuel Clase). Fact is, when they select a giant home-schooled prep pitcher like Mac Heuer, it is easy for one’s mind to decide, “He’s going to be a stud just cause Cleveland picked him”.
The Baltimore Orioles seem like they can’t miss in the draft since Mike Elias took over. Not only were the Orioles able to select Adley Rutschman in 2019, they blew the draft out of the water by also drafting and developing Gunnar Henderson. Their 2020 draft is beginning to confirm their ability to draft and develop with Heston Kjerstad, Jordan Westburg, Hudson Haskin, and Coby Mayo all either in the majors or mashing in Triple-A on the cusp of a call-up. 2021 draft has Colton Cowser in the majors, and Connor Norby on the cusp mashing in Triple-A. In 2022 they apparently drafted a unicorn in Jackson Holliday. So, if the Orioles take a hitter that might not seem appealing at the onset, the Orioles front office has at least shown promise of developing hitters. Whether out of a big or small college conference, or out of the high school ranks.
Looking over Tampa Bay Rays drafts is one that makes me chuckle. They can’t get enough of shortstops, and athletic middle infielders. Pirates’ fans get irate at even the thought of drafting another infielder if the Pirates either drafted or recently acquired one middle infielder, or have a presumed MLB starter like Oneil Cruz. The Rays had a clear star in Wander Franco, but that hasn’t stopped them. Not to mention at the time they had other SS/MIF types in Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Taylor Walls. First round pick in 2019 was a shortstop, Greg Jones. Second pick of 2020, shortstop Alika Williams, who is ironically with the Pirates now. In 2021, first round and two of their first four picks were shortstops, with three of the four being middle infielders. In 2022, their third pick was a shortstop. 2023 draft, their first two picks? Shortstop, shortstop. If that wasn’t enough, their fourth-round pick was another shortstop. Then when they traded pitcher Tobias Myers to the Guardians, they acquired now highly regarded shortstop, Junior Caminero. Have I said shortstop enough?
In Summary
All of this is a long way of asking, what exactly is the Pirates M.O.? Have they found their niche? We still aren’t seeing hitters of any background truly succeeding in the majors. The Pirates regarded Miguel Yajure highly as a piece in the Jameson Taillon trade. They thought highly enough of Tucupita Marcano that they threw $1.4M into the Adam Frazier trade in order to acquire him. Between these two trades alone, Jack Suwinski has seen the most success, and that’s a mixture of torrid hot streaks followed by below freezing slumps. What improvements have they shown with pitching prospects who have control/command or fastball shape issues: Johan Oviedo, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, etc? Which, is at the crux of the heavily focused 2023 Reliever/SEC draft. Big stuff with command/control and fastball shape issues. Oviedo would be the one closest to showing improvements, but it’s still very hit or miss.
There’s a new crop of pitching prospects I feel confident in, and that is mostly because they seem to have characteristics of quality pitchers not carrying one or both of command/control and fastball shape issues: Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, Braxton Ashcraft (inherited), Thomas Harrington, and Bubba Chandler. On the hitting side, it’s taken on more of a shooting from the hip narrative. The more promising bats are largely in the majors now, and the depth is limited until you get to Bradenton. Time will tell, but I want the Pirates front office to lean into what they do best. Unfortunately, I’m not sure we know, or even if they do yet.
Ben hasn’t impressed me much. Not one impact player has come up thru the system. Cruz MAY be, but that remains to be seen. Keller has pitched better, but they need MORE guys who can do it at the MLB level.
I dont know what it takes to improve fastball shape, but since this seems to be such an org-wide deficit, you would think they bring someone in who knows how to work the problem and all of a sudden 5-10 guys have their biggest problem improved