How the Pirates bullpen is shaping up in early January
How the Pirates bullpen is shaping up in early January
As we turn into the New Year, a look at how the bullpen is shaping up based off the current state of the 40-man roster
Yesterday, we looked at how the rotation was shaping up while focusing solely on the 40-man roster since we have rolled into the New Year.
Today, we will shift focus to the bullpen. Pirates relievers finished 11th in WAR on FanGraphs, 20th in xFIP, and 19th in ERA. Taking a deeper dive at things, they had the ninth-best ‘Clutch’ rating and the 10th-best WPA (Win Probability Added).
Currently, as they stand, it’s a very young bullpen anchored by one of the best in the game.
Locks
David Bednar
This one was easy and perhaps a little surprising, but I go more in-depth later.
Bednar is one of the best closers in the game, making the All-Star game in back-to-back years. Over the last two seasons, Bednar has the seventh most saves and the fewest blown saves among that same group.
The rotation has Mitch Keller as their one ‘safe bet,’ and the bullpen has theirs in Bednar.
Near locks
Ryan Borucki
Colin Holderman
Carmen Mlodzinski
Dauri Moreta
You could make the case that a couple of names here belong with Bednar as ‘locks,’ I didn’t because of how unpredictable the reliever position can be, and the fact is, none of them are as established as Bednar.
They all had a solid 2023, and based on the lack of options currently, they would make the team by default.
Borucki is the only one of this group without options, so if they struggle at all in camp, they do leave themselves open to being sent to the minors. He’s also one of two lefties on the 40-man, so it'd be him if a player is closest to the ‘locks’ group.
Mlodzinski was good after coming up in his first year as a reliever, and he could get the first crack as the eighth-inning guy. Having him and Holderman take another step forward would give the Pirates different options to work in front of Bednar.
Moreta had a whiff rate in the 92nd percentile despite having one of the worst chase rates among pitchers. So, he could make batters miss all while staying in the strike zone.
The group had 67 ‘shutdowns’ compared to just 26 ‘meltdowns’ (both FanGraphs metrics).
Competing for spot
Jose Hernandez
Kyle Nicolas
Colin Selby
Hernandez was a Rule 5 guy a year ago, and while he started strong, he struggled down the stretch. He did some things well (whiff, strikeout, and hard hit rates were all in the 70th percentile or better), but he also struggled with walks, and his fastball didn’t have much success - leaving a lot of pressure on the slider.
Nicolas switched to the bullpen later in the season, and the difference was noticeable on the mound in the Triple-A. The sample size wasn’t large in the majors, so a strong spring can go a long way for him.
Selby has two high-spin pitches but struggled to throw strikes, and the sinker got smoked in the majors (.395 average against). In an ideal scenario, all three probably head to Indianapolis to work on things, but how the 40-man is currently, that may not be the case.
Multi-inning guys
Bailey Falter
Braxton Ashcraft
Jackson Wolf
Mike Burrows
JT Brubaker
The Pirates had to get creative with filling innings towards the season's end. Having a couple of guys that could pitch multiple innings is always helpful.
Falter could get a shot to start, although a multi-inning role fits him better.
Burrows and Brubaker will both be returning from Tommy John, so they will be on an innings restriction. Depending on when they will be available, the best way to get them back into the thick of things may be as multi-inning guys.
Ashcraft was in the same position as Burrows and Brubaker last year, and the Pirates were very cautious with his workload. They probably want to see how he looks as a starter, but going off of how he looked last year, he could fill this well just as easily.
He hasn’t pitched above Double-A in the Pirates system, but Wolf has one major league start to his credit. The Pirates will need to keep as many guys stretched out as possible, but there are only so many rotation spots.
Depending on who forces their way to Triple-A throughout the season, Wolf could have some value out of the bullpen with his delivery.
I find this table useful for evaluating our relievers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=27&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel
Some things that match my eye test:
1. I like WPA for evaluating relievers and Bednar is clearly in a tier of his own. Holderman, Mlod, Borucki, and Moreta all did fine in this regard. Three other guys in our top 8 from '23 are no longer options (Jackson, Perdomo, and DUJ). Maybe that's why I'd like to see us acquire a decent reliever, though that isn't as high a priority as the rotation.
2. Holderman led the team in meltdowns with 9 but was also second in shutdowns with 25 (to Bednar's 39). Similarly, Holderman was quite high in WPA- (loss advancement) and WPA+ (win advancement). I think I haven't been quite as high on Holderman because those meltdowns and "loss advancements" stick in my head, but clearly overall he's a very good reliever.
3. Despite what my fellow Tennessean says ;), Hernandez needs to prove himself as he was fourth in meltdowns and second worst in WPA with a -0.73 (Selby was worst). I'd start Hernandez in AAA, and probably Selby too (again, I think we need an addition to the pen).
Jose Hernandez should be in the near lock grouping, especially considering he was in 50 G, 50 IP in 2023. His previous work before the Rule 5 was for the Dodgers at AA (39 IP, 3.97 ERA) and A+ (15 IP, 2.14 ERA) in 2022. Pitching at the MLB level takes a lot more out of a young pitcher, and I think he'll come out in '24 with a lot more confidence as a result of the MLB experience. Hunter Stratton showed well at the end of the season in 8 G. 12 IP, 9 Hits, 10 K, 3 BB, 2.25 ERA. Selby struggled with his ERA, but 34 IP, 31 K is promising in his first opportunity.
The Pirates are well stocked with relievers which can be a strength in a possible trade for a kid like Everson Pereira, RH hitting CF, and No. 3 Prospect in the Yankees org. The Yankees are supposedly looking for relief help, and with Soto, Grisham, Judge, and Verdugo in the OF, and Jasson Dominguez as their No. 1 Prospect, and also a CF, they can well afford to trade Pereira to help the pen.