1. I like WPA for evaluating relievers and Bednar is clearly in a tier of his own. Holderman, Mlod, Borucki, and Moreta all did fine in this regard. Three other guys in our top 8 from '23 are no longer options (Jackson, Perdomo, and DUJ). Maybe that's why I'd like to see us acquire a decent reliever, though that isn't as high a priority as the rotation.
2. Holderman led the team in meltdowns with 9 but was also second in shutdowns with 25 (to Bednar's 39). Similarly, Holderman was quite high in WPA- (loss advancement) and WPA+ (win advancement). I think I haven't been quite as high on Holderman because those meltdowns and "loss advancements" stick in my head, but clearly overall he's a very good reliever.
3. Despite what my fellow Tennessean says ;), Hernandez needs to prove himself as he was fourth in meltdowns and second worst in WPA with a -0.73 (Selby was worst). I'd start Hernandez in AAA, and probably Selby too (again, I think we need an addition to the pen).
Jose Hernandez should be in the near lock grouping, especially considering he was in 50 G, 50 IP in 2023. His previous work before the Rule 5 was for the Dodgers at AA (39 IP, 3.97 ERA) and A+ (15 IP, 2.14 ERA) in 2022. Pitching at the MLB level takes a lot more out of a young pitcher, and I think he'll come out in '24 with a lot more confidence as a result of the MLB experience. Hunter Stratton showed well at the end of the season in 8 G. 12 IP, 9 Hits, 10 K, 3 BB, 2.25 ERA. Selby struggled with his ERA, but 34 IP, 31 K is promising in his first opportunity.
The Pirates are well stocked with relievers which can be a strength in a possible trade for a kid like Everson Pereira, RH hitting CF, and No. 3 Prospect in the Yankees org. The Yankees are supposedly looking for relief help, and with Soto, Grisham, Judge, and Verdugo in the OF, and Jasson Dominguez as their No. 1 Prospect, and also a CF, they can well afford to trade Pereira to help the pen.
No bold predictions on Ashcraft but I’m cautiously optimistic he’s going to be the surprise arm on Pirates roster this season. Won’t be surprised in the least if he’s either in the rotation or pitching in high leverage late inning situations in last couple months of this season.
He's very interesting, coming back from TJS with improved control and velocity. I still think they'll limit his innings somewhat this year to around 100 innings +/- 15. Hope he can hold his effectiveness through 5 or 6 innings a start, if not he's got the stuff for high leverage situations and could move faster up the ladder.
MLB Trade Rumors just dropped a PirateFest update. Pirates hope to add more before spring training and Cruz is fully recovered were the two things I gleaned from it. MLBTR stated again (not quotes from any Pirate affiliated person) rumors on players they may have interest in.
Sounds like they probably have cast a wider net this year wrt FA. There have been multiple rumors that they’ve offered multi year contracts to several FA pitchers. The catch-22 tho, these FA’s likely have considerable interest from other teams as well, which is delaying their respective decisions as agents try to bid up their services. Further, their individual interests tend to wax as teams lose out on other alternatives. Let’s just hope they have made very competitive offers and a compelling case for this team’s immediate future.
This is the area of least concern. Even with bullpen fluctuations, there are enough issues elsewhere that need attention. A few minor comments, I think your near locks are locks and outside of velocity drops or total spring training wildness that those 4 will be on the opening day roster. I also would leave Burrows off the list. IMO it will be simple for Burrows: return from injury and go to AAA and build his arm up working towards a starters role in 2025. I don't see a scenario outside of total good news (playoff run and him returning lights out) that would push him to the majors. ie. no need to bring him up for sporadic relief appearances in the majors when his return can be fully managed in the minors. A September start - sure if it feels right.
ZiPS projects the Pirates’ BP at 4 wins. About 2/3 of the teams are out and that’s competitive with anybody. Atl leads at 5. The rest of the Pirates’ projections, of course, are bad.
Appreciate your and Anthony's veiwpoint. I had not realized he was never over 100 innings and that is a concern. I'll cling to Mayo's comment that he has the stuff to be a starter and ride that possibility as long as possible.
Yeah, ZiPS to some extent is projecting the 2023 BP into 2024, including Jackson, who’s gone. A BP is so volatile that a large % of the innings could come from guys currently in the 8-12 range on the depth chart, or even lower. I think guys like Nicolas, Selby, Heller (interesting NRI) and Stratton have the Pirates in a good position.
I find this table useful for evaluating our relievers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=27&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel
Some things that match my eye test:
1. I like WPA for evaluating relievers and Bednar is clearly in a tier of his own. Holderman, Mlod, Borucki, and Moreta all did fine in this regard. Three other guys in our top 8 from '23 are no longer options (Jackson, Perdomo, and DUJ). Maybe that's why I'd like to see us acquire a decent reliever, though that isn't as high a priority as the rotation.
2. Holderman led the team in meltdowns with 9 but was also second in shutdowns with 25 (to Bednar's 39). Similarly, Holderman was quite high in WPA- (loss advancement) and WPA+ (win advancement). I think I haven't been quite as high on Holderman because those meltdowns and "loss advancements" stick in my head, but clearly overall he's a very good reliever.
3. Despite what my fellow Tennessean says ;), Hernandez needs to prove himself as he was fourth in meltdowns and second worst in WPA with a -0.73 (Selby was worst). I'd start Hernandez in AAA, and probably Selby too (again, I think we need an addition to the pen).
Jose Hernandez should be in the near lock grouping, especially considering he was in 50 G, 50 IP in 2023. His previous work before the Rule 5 was for the Dodgers at AA (39 IP, 3.97 ERA) and A+ (15 IP, 2.14 ERA) in 2022. Pitching at the MLB level takes a lot more out of a young pitcher, and I think he'll come out in '24 with a lot more confidence as a result of the MLB experience. Hunter Stratton showed well at the end of the season in 8 G. 12 IP, 9 Hits, 10 K, 3 BB, 2.25 ERA. Selby struggled with his ERA, but 34 IP, 31 K is promising in his first opportunity.
The Pirates are well stocked with relievers which can be a strength in a possible trade for a kid like Everson Pereira, RH hitting CF, and No. 3 Prospect in the Yankees org. The Yankees are supposedly looking for relief help, and with Soto, Grisham, Judge, and Verdugo in the OF, and Jasson Dominguez as their No. 1 Prospect, and also a CF, they can well afford to trade Pereira to help the pen.
No bold predictions on Ashcraft but I’m cautiously optimistic he’s going to be the surprise arm on Pirates roster this season. Won’t be surprised in the least if he’s either in the rotation or pitching in high leverage late inning situations in last couple months of this season.
He's very interesting, coming back from TJS with improved control and velocity. I still think they'll limit his innings somewhat this year to around 100 innings +/- 15. Hope he can hold his effectiveness through 5 or 6 innings a start, if not he's got the stuff for high leverage situations and could move faster up the ladder.
So how was piratesfest?
About how many fans were there? The over/under was 20.
I have narrowed your source down to either travis williams or the pirate parrot, both seems to know equal amounts about the happens in the org
The Pirate Parrot was angered by this comment. Watch your back.
Didnt mean to slander the parrot!
Gotta get some fake accounts so I can like this more times.
MLB Trade Rumors just dropped a PirateFest update. Pirates hope to add more before spring training and Cruz is fully recovered were the two things I gleaned from it. MLBTR stated again (not quotes from any Pirate affiliated person) rumors on players they may have interest in.
Sounds like they probably have cast a wider net this year wrt FA. There have been multiple rumors that they’ve offered multi year contracts to several FA pitchers. The catch-22 tho, these FA’s likely have considerable interest from other teams as well, which is delaying their respective decisions as agents try to bid up their services. Further, their individual interests tend to wax as teams lose out on other alternatives. Let’s just hope they have made very competitive offers and a compelling case for this team’s immediate future.
Pathetic to see they haven’t signed a FA to a multi year deal since 2016.
Zach Plesac just signed with Angels for $1M.
Now that's in BC territory. I'll bet Uncle Dan has fixed Zach and Angels have got a bargain there.
Love it.....a new metric: 2.58 shutdowns. Us fans would still like to see a 3.50 or more! Meltdowns are sooo demoralizing.
This is the area of least concern. Even with bullpen fluctuations, there are enough issues elsewhere that need attention. A few minor comments, I think your near locks are locks and outside of velocity drops or total spring training wildness that those 4 will be on the opening day roster. I also would leave Burrows off the list. IMO it will be simple for Burrows: return from injury and go to AAA and build his arm up working towards a starters role in 2025. I don't see a scenario outside of total good news (playoff run and him returning lights out) that would push him to the majors. ie. no need to bring him up for sporadic relief appearances in the majors when his return can be fully managed in the minors. A September start - sure if it feels right.
He’s burning options, so I’m sure he will be up as soon as he’s needed.
They'll be able to petition for an extra option year based on his injury history and the 2020 minor league shutdown.
I think the best staff has Ortiz and Roansy in the pen as well. 2 innings every couple days. Have a Yankee type bullpen.
I like the idea of Ro in bullpen from the start. I’m ok with Ortiz as depth for now but kinda see him in the bullpen long term
The pen is probably the part of this team that I am least worried about
ZiPS projects the Pirates’ BP at 4 wins. About 2/3 of the teams are out and that’s competitive with anybody. Atl leads at 5. The rest of the Pirates’ projections, of course, are bad.
...that's without counting guys like Roansy and Burrows that I think will get innings there. I don't hate having a good bullpen.
I don't see any reason to use Burrows in the MLB bullpen this year. Work him back as a starter in AAA and try to pick up where he left off pre-injury.
My issue with that is his ever growing injury history. Hasn’t pitched a full season without missing time.
Almost wonder if he’d just be better going 2/3 innings every couple of days
Jonathan Mayo think he could see the ML bullpen this year:
https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-thanksgiving-edition-2023
Appreciate your and Anthony's veiwpoint. I had not realized he was never over 100 innings and that is a concern. I'll cling to Mayo's comment that he has the stuff to be a starter and ride that possibility as long as possible.
I agree, but I think this year he could be awesome for two or three innings out of the bullpen. Or as an opener.
Yeah, ZiPS to some extent is projecting the 2023 BP into 2024, including Jackson, who’s gone. A BP is so volatile that a large % of the innings could come from guys currently in the 8-12 range on the depth chart, or even lower. I think guys like Nicolas, Selby, Heller (interesting NRI) and Stratton have the Pirates in a good position.