66 Comments

Pirates are _just_ a Bobby Witt and Juan Soto away from contention. No big deal.

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If I’m BC, I put my eggs into just a couple high upside veteran FA hitters this winter, rather than buy low on numerous guys with very little upside (Tellez, Perez, etc).

Do I think this will happen? Not for a second.

Biggest hope for next year is they strike gold when replacing the hitting coach and strength/conditioning coach. Keeping Hayes healthy and Keller effective all year will alone be worth enough wins to make the team an 82+ win team.

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If I'm Cherington I retire in shame after realizing I have overseen one winning season in a decade of GM'ing and I'm on pace to become the losingest GM in the history of baseball if I keep taking paychecks.

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I'm clueless as to how Bryan Reynolds gets dirt shoved on top of him for his outfield play. The only thing that makes sense is diminished range and Jason Mackey agreed with me.

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I'm baffled how a guy with 67th percentile speed has first percentile range. The Pirates' staff was 23rd in BABIP, not good but not terrible. They were at .298, avg. was about .287. They did that with Reynolds, with Jack at 7th percentile, BDLC at 4th percentile (full year but his Pirate time couldn't have been meaningfully better than with Mia), Tellez at 10th, and Olivares around 15th.

Connor Joe at 40th (OF + 1B), Cruz at 37th (would have been mainly SS) and Alika a bit below 50th were borderline.

I don't see how Triolo at 83rd, Hayes at 90th, IKF at 85th (full season), and Nick and MAT both at 79th could have offset so many incredibly bad defenders. SOMEBODY had to be catching the ball.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I think SS is a real need & would allow IKF/Triolo to do what they do best as UT players.

Geraldo Perdomo from AZ? They move him to give Lawlar an everyday spot. Solid D and decent enough bat.

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Oct 11·edited Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I totally forgot about SS in my irrational hope post for next year.

Figure out a trade for Holliday (I did say irrational) that doesn't decimate the starting pitching.

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My irrational but should be very doable wants.

Anthony Santander(1B/RF/DH)- switch-hitter that plays everyday and is a “table clearer”(something the Pirates are desperately lacking). You slot him in batting 4th and just forget about that spot in the lineup; it’s taken care of.

Munetaka Murakami - Now this one is probably irrational. He’ll be expensive but would give the Pirates a LHH power bat at 1B/3B/DH. Especially 3B if KeHayes doesn’t get right.

Charlie Morton - One year deal. He can teach the kids how to spin a baseball and slot him in as a reliable #3 SP behind Skenes and Keller. And that would move Jones to the #4 and probably Falter as the 5th SP. I would move Ortiz back to bullpen as a multi-inning/long RP role. He’s just too inconsistent for me and imo that’s the best use of him and he can be used as a spot starter when needed. I would love to give Bubba a spot out of Spring Training, him being PPI eligible and all. If the Pirates don’t go after a vet like Morton Bubba would be my choice.

Clay Holmes - solidifies the back-end of the bullpen in case Bednar can’t regain his AS closer prime.

One of - Tanner Scott/AJ Minter/Kirby Yates - all gonna be expensive as they are the top LHP on the market(besides probably Chapman). The Pirates need a LHRP though and all 3 are backend options with closing experience.

Cutch - he’s fine and the Pirates can’t be turning down above league average bats that want to play here on a discount. He gives the clubhouse some legitimacy too.

That leaves the lineup, rotation and bullpen something like this:

Amd btw, I’m just not sold on Henry Davis at Catcher. He looks stiff back there imo. I think Endy has looked much better defensively back there plus - switch-hitter.

And I’m not a Triolo fan. I never thought he was a good hitter as a prospect and still don’t think he’s more than a AAAA UTL bench player. I would rather take the elite SS defense from Alika(and I know I’m probably in the minority there).

CF-Oneil

DH-Cutch

LF-Reynolds

RF-Santander

1B-Murakami

C-Bart

3B-KeHayes

SS-IK-F

2B-Yorke

BN - Endy, NickG, Alika, Cook

SP - Skenes, Keller, Morton, Jones, Falter

RP -Bendar, Clay Homes, Tanner Scott, Holderman, Mlodzinski, Nicolas, Dennis Santana, Luis Ortiz

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Murakami is going to be posted after the 2025 season. If the pirates don't solve firstbase by then they should go for him.

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Ya you’re right about Munetaka Murakami.

There are a couple other players that are supposedly coming over. Supposedly a 2B, who’s name I forget and a bunch of pitchers; maybe even Roki Sasaki, who will super expensive and out of the Pirates price range anyways.

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author

Perdomo would be more of a last resort for me. I'd see about availability on Muncy, Freeland, or Lawlar. Muncy to me would be the most likely to be available.

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I like Muncy but his skill set is very similar to Gonzales and Yorke, I'm not sure he's a long-term short stop. Freeland might become available if the Dodgers grab Adames. Lawlar would be nice but probably isn't available. I like Carigg but he's a year or 2 away. Watson should be fairly easy to aquire but he's a lottery ticket with a ton of risk. There isn't a lot out there game ready without costing a lot prospect wise or money.

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Yeah, Freeland would be nice, but they need a SS, so it would depend if they grab a MLB SS. Also would probably be the costliest outside of Lawlar, if he was available.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

I'm with you, SS is the lynchpin to the 2025 offense. The most wide-open opportunity they have for improvement.

OF might be the easiest to improve, but SS has the most upside.

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Kind of thought Kim would be a decent target. He had a down year that ended with an injury. Then, he hired the Boras Corp, so that idea is probably shot.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Unfortunately, IKF is the sort of guy a non-serious team like the Pirates would settle for, unless Nutting won't pay the 7.5M. He "looks" like a ML SS -- roughly avg defensively and well below offensively. He's been around for years and he's been a starter when his team didn't have a better choice. So a bad GM like Cherington, who's not trying to win, figures it's OK to go with him as the starter because he clears the "not terrible" bar.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Sure, it didn't work for the Yanks and Jays....but you're sayin' there's a chance? - Ben

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Oct 11·edited Oct 11

My irrational hope for the off-season

Free agency

Sign 1 solid 2WAR corner outfielder, maybe a second bounce back corner outfielder.

Sign 2 solid relievers, one has to be a lefty. I would be totally fine bringing back Chapman.

Sign one pillow starting pitcher. I'd aim big like Walker B. for $15 million. If you don't get a potential difference maker just leave it be.

Trades, I'd target reloading the upper minors

Ortiz to Colorado for Veen and Carigg while trying to pull a third piece.

Davis and a lottery ticket to Tampa for Morgan, Smith and Lesko.

Peguero to the Nats for Hassell

Delay to Cleveland for Watson. (If they trade Delay, bring back Grandal as 2 to 3 max game a week catcher/firstbase while giving the team a switch hitting bench bat.)

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I wouldn’t mind wading in the arb pool for a couple bats. Guys like Ward and Mountcastle shouldn’t cost a fortune in terms of acquisition, and their bats would be a nice boost to this lineup. Both of these guys would have trade value to recoup some assets if the Pirates were out of contention prior to their FA years. And, I’d look to FA to bolster the bullpen. I previously liked the idea of a buy low on Kim at SS due to a down year and injury, but that idea seemed to have sailed after he hired Boras at the end of the year.

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I like those guys but I'd target a left hand hitting player in a position of need. The team is very right hand heavy with only Reynolds and Cruz established. I know they have Endy and Suwinski, with Bae, Palacios and Cheng on the 40 man. In my opinion you can only hope for a couple of them to produce next year, with the possibility that a couple not even remaining on the 40 man come next year.

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Last off season KC had the offseason I wished we had, so far this “offseason “ the Twins are having the offseason I wished for!

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Looking at the postseason lineups and impressed both with the high end talent and depth that a lot of them have. So, my question is would you rather 2 120 wRC+ players so above average and providing more lineup length or 1 140 wRC+ which is a real "masher" but only strengthens one position?

I know this is not a perfect question and not necessarily going to be applicable to the bucs, but its an internal debate I enjoy having. Longer lineup wears down a pitcher more and gives you more opportunities but having a real stud to stick in the middle certainly has its own benefits.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Love this one!

I'm pretty firmly in the first camp, especially for playoff success, and the Royals just showed us why.

No player in baseball accounted for a higher percentage of his team's offense through the regular season than Bobby Witt. Absolutely phenomenal player.

But sometimes even those guys hit .192 in the playoffs. When that happens, you're probably gonna lose, and the Royals did.

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Well stated!

I agree both for playoff success and for the regular season too I think. While its tempting to want to add say mookie or corey seager from this year vs 2 extra of BRey, I think its so much easier to plan around one big hitter via matchups/pitching around. Seems like the scariest lineups have guys up and down that can beat you, work ABs, and even just limit soft spots for pitchers. Also, probably limits lineup slumps to not just rely on 1-2 bats.

Two different ways to get the job done but I find it interesting to consider when thinking about team building.

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Fully agree!

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"Right Field: 71 wRC+ (29th), -2.0 fWAR (29th)

Right Field: -5 DRS (24th), -13 OAA (30th), -17.6 DEF (29th)"

It takes incompetence on a level seldom seen in human history to produce a position this bad on both ends. Like, "Never mind the icebergs" level incompetence.

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Maybe I'm an idiot but this is one reason, maybe the main reason, I'm generally optimistic about 2025.

They almost can't do worse.

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This is a point I've tried to address lots of times, maybe not very articulately. Cherington has a habit of totally blowing off large parts of the roster, which is why they get biblically disastrous situations like they had in RF this year. Like doing absolutely nothing about the offense for four months, and then making the embarrassing addition of BDLC. Or sticking with Bednar as closer for so long -- and even when they removed him the dimwitted manager just used him in high-leverage situations in earlier innings. It's not hard to address problems this severe, precisely because they ARE so severe. You don't have to go out and get Aaron Judge. Tons of players out there can manage better than -1 fWAR or whatever. Actual major league teams deal with these problems every single year.

Cherington is so totally unwilling to depart from his "process" that he lets situations fester that no other team would tolerate. Like you say, it was almost impossible to do worse than what they had in right (also center), yet Cherington accomplished exactly that at the deadline.

And this is how you get a ludicrous situation where you add Skenes, Jones and Bart; you get Cruz back and taking a big step forward; and Ortiz makes a 180, yet somehow you don't win one single game more than the previous year. A real GM works to make every single roster spot productive, but Cherington absolutely lacks that sort of commitment to winning, and the owner could care less.

So, incredibly, they absolutely can do worse. BDLC is the living proof.

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Paradoxically, they are in an even worse situation this off-season than last. This roster is fraught with uncertainty, and I doubt even the most competent of GM’s could dig themselves out of this mess when considering the budgetary constraints and reluctance to trade prospects/young players with value.

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Oct 11Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Haha, well, I suppose when you put it that way!

I agree and also have a fear that six weeks of good hitting from Rowdy will steel Ben's unwillingness to move on from two months of shitty play for guys of his type.

Like, okay, of course you're gonna let a Bryan Reynolds or Oneil Cruz hit himself out of it but Rowdy? Come on.

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Don’t challenge Ben like that!

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Eliminate the awful and you’ve got something here.

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Jeff Sullivan classic!

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"In an ideal scenario, (BDLC) and Jack Suwinski take over right field in some sort of platoon"

You left out "at Indianapolis."

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Pretty devastating offensive results.....

Some thoughts:

1) !b and rf were complete black holes.......just making them average would be an upgrade but to be playoff competitive they need more than that....moving Reynolds to 1b and getting a LF (Taylor Ward) may work (and at least prevents the annual trip to the fat farm solution (Rowdy, Ji-Man, Yoshi, Vogelbach) it is actually hilarious in a pathetic way.)

2) RF BDLC and Suwinski returning as a combo would be white flag stuff...

3) IKF is interesting...great guy to have but he can't hit and is not a great ss.....at 7.5M$ he probably needs to be moved in a baseball trade not a salary dump.....if not, we gave three Gold Glove caliber 3b who can't hit well enough to be above average 3b....hilarious again.

4) I would trade Henry Davis in a heartbeat in a baseball trade while he sill has value.

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Going to have to make some good trades unless they find a way to shave some payroll. Even with ditching IKF, BDLC and Joe I struggle to see how they could spend enough to do this through free agency alone. Trading Keller would accomplish this, but that’s probably too risky of a concept for them.

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Extending Keller, Hayes and Reynolds would be too risky for them.

Drafting Paul Skenes 1-1 would be too risky for them.

Jared Jones making the club out of ST would be too risky for them.

Trading Keller would be unwise, unless it's a pure baseball trade for a proven hitter. An established 2-3 win player.

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"Trading Keller would be unwise, unless it's a pure baseball trade for a proven hitter. An established 2-3 win player."

Holy s*** yes. The whole "trade Keller, trade Keller" hysteria gets on my nerves. You don't trade one of your whopping total of four two-win players just to trade him. You do it to make the team better. The total number of players in the entire system you flat don't consider trading is exactly one. Anybody else can go in any deal that makes the team better. (There is, of course, the problem with the guy who'd be making the deal.)

Starting from the proposition that, "We're going to trade this specific guy" is, to be blunt, imbecilic. (This is not a response to anybody in particular.) And that's apart from the fact that, the moment the 29 real GMs get the impression that the Pirates are shopping (i.e., salary-dumping) Keller, the expected return plummets.

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Errybody wanna be the Rays, nobody wanna act like the Rays...

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Exactly. Now, they will waste years trying to get guys like Suwinski and Bednar back to their 2023 peaks. This front office has been remarkably bad at evaluating their own players relative to industry expectations and capitalizing on their respective trade values.

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And FTR, all things being equal, I’d prefer trading Jones to Keller. We know Keller can handle a workload. That’s yet to be seen with Jones. Trading Jones doesn’t address needed payroll maneuvering through.

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I think there is a way that doesn't involve $ or trading Jones or Keller and the team can get to the playoffs.

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That’s dipping into the prospect pool, no? And I mentioned that as a possibility too. Trading Bubba/Harrington/Burrows etc. That still presents financial challenges though, if you bring back a guy making a decent arbitration salary. If they bring back everyone from last year you’ve already spent almost to what the payroll is likely to be. And that doesn’t include other needed additions too. If they hold true to form they’ll probably sign a starter, maybe a reliever or two, etc.

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You don't trade Bubba

You don't trade Jones

You don't trade Keller

The idea is to build around Skenes, Jones, Keller & Bubba. It doesn't necessarily mean trading a bunch of prospects. They can get this team to the playoffs by making shrewd baseball moves.

I'm watching playoff baseball and I'm seeing Jon Berti starting games for the Yankees, I know about 4 guys on Detroit's roster, Austin Hedges is starting games, Royals have dudes that have no business starting playoff games. There is so much parity, that an above average off-season could get the Buccos in the dance next season.

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Yeah would definitely have to trade probably at least two of those guys. Trading jones at probably peak value gets much more value than any of the prospects if they can do it well. Gotta have the front office with the stones and smarts to not fuck it up, which is a big ask for our current group

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To be clear I was not advocating for/against him. It’s merely a lay of the land post. But, assuming the payroll doesn’t go up, it’s something you have to consider. Unless they are ready to empty the farm of prospects, how do you realistically field a better team with 40% of your payroll tied up in 3 guys? I struggle grasping how the payroll math works, and it’s not getting any easier with the arbitration classes forthcoming.

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Disagree on point 1. They like extending guys. Much to my annoyance lol.

Disagree on point 2. This FO has shown a propensity for pitching.

Agree on point 3. I never thought they would do that.

It IS risky to trade him though. For one, do we actually trust their ability to properly evaluate hitters? (I’d feel better if it was the reverse, if we were trading Reynolds and needed pitching!) Number 2, if you want to extend guys, as they do, it’s probably better not to trade them right after extending them.

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Regarding Skenes, he was an exception, no? Every other draft this FO has done has been bat first, stock up on arms after. It shows how much they regarded him.

I don’t think extensions are bad, per se. Of course the extension I was most pleased with (Hayes), has uhhhhh…not gone well.

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Skenes is an exception in so many ways and was the consensus 1-1 when we drafted him. The risk would have been not drafting him and risk having to explain how we passed on the next Cole/Strasburg (or better).

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I still wouldn’t describe it as risky? Going with Clark or Jenkins would’ve been risky AF and probably caused a riot on PNC Park. They might have taken more flack even if they drafted Langford/Crews. Skenes had a pretty vocal backing from a lot of folks and we can see why.

Extensions aren’t inherently bad, no. But you also have to extend the right players for the right price for the right payroll point. Otherwise you crowd your payroll out and it forces you to make moves for non-baseball financial reasons.

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Anytime you draft an arm @ 1-1, there is substantial risk.

The kid they drafted this year also comes with substantial risk.

I don't believe this FO is good, but I'm not going out of my way to say they don't take on risk.

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Didn’t they just end up drafting the best player available in the last three drafts? Seems pretty risk averse to me.

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Agree, but Skenes, like Cole, was less risky than say, Brady Aiken.

Risk aversion doesn’t mean avoidance of all risk though. Extending Keller and Reynolds carries risk, sure. They might not live up to the contracts. Trading them is riskier IMO. Ideally you end up with better players in the aggregate, than those you traded. That’s how the Rays have won basically for the past 15 years. But there’s the very real and probable risk that you end up with nothing. So the safe route is taking the bird in hand rather than the two in the bush, which is what they did. And there’s really nothing wrong with that, except it ignores the reality that you have Ebenezer Nutting as your owner.

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Trading Bubba would also do it, but again…too risky for them

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Not conceptually opposed to the idea of trading Bubba, but I also wonder if they really need to in order to get a quality bat?

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And I don’t mean that to denigrate them for wanting to hold onto Bubba. He looks really freaking good. Top end arms are hard to come by. Just to illustrate they can trade those they extended or trade prospects.

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Fully agree. My comment wasn’t meant to denigrate either. It’s just illustrating the hard choices they have to make. They have a core that isn’t good enough to make the playoffs and not enough money to spend to improve it. That’s where you get to trading Keller/Bubba/Jones etc.

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My ideal candidates are Kepler and Tyler O’Neil they are both great defenders and above average offensively, there’s a health concern with those two but with our current depth of Suwinski, Cook, Yorke and DLC I think is a risk worth taking. Walker to 1b and Reynolds to RF with either one of the outfielders mention above would be a bigger wish.

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There is some young talent on this roster. However, this team needs a bona fide MLB position player or two to add to Reynolds and a bunch of less experienced players. The team at Aug 1 made four trades that could help in the long term, but failed this year because the team lost all confidence on its losing streak in AZ, SD and LA. They MUST add a couple of solid bats to Reynolds and the mix

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How 'bout we not.

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