Chandler has been lights out at AAA, but the distance between he and Thomas Harrington is not so great that Harrington will not also be successful as an MLB SP. Take for instance the Exit Velo's Harrington 86.6 mph, Chandler 84.6 mph - both would seem to be in the excellent range. Launch Angle is more in favor of Chandler, but Harrington is 19.7 degrees, Chandler is 11.9 degrees. I'd rather they were closer together, but Chandler would be excellent and Harrington would be very good.
Two very talented, but totally different styles of pitcher. Chandler's money pitch will be his Fastball up around 100, and Harrington probably 93/94 and movement with the FB, and his money pitch will be his Changeup. I liked what we got from Skenes and Jones, but I also liked the work of Ortiz and Falter. Love to have a guy with the gas, then a guy throwing less gas, but more movement, then another guy with gas, then possibly a LH throwing junk, etc. Teams coming for a 4 game series cannot just sit FB on every pitch for 4 days.
Can't let this go without saying again that Falter has been an absolute steal from the Phillies, and a guy with a lot of trade value during the off-season. 25 Starts, 128 IP, 1.7 fWAR. With the thoughts of 2025 with Keller, Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington, Oviedo, Ortiz, Falter - that's 8 - could see a package or two of a SP + a MI for bats during the off-season.
The only one that really deserves a chance at a promotion is Sammy Sianni.
AA is the sink or swim level for prospects, Bowen & Cheng mostly sank. Cheng finished with a 95 wRC+ (2nd time through AA) buoyed by a high bb% & Bowen finished with a 91 wRC+
Neither appear to have the hit tool to have any success in the majors.
Siani will probably be in the AFL this Fall. Yorke is young, but already in AAA, I doubt the Pirates send him to the AFL. Brannigan was in the AFL last year, but could return simply due to the number of AB's he missed due to injury this year.
Do we really know if they have the hit tool or not? This organization desperately needs a revamped hitting development system before final judgment is made on guys like Cheng and Bowen.
This goes back at least to the Beane/Oak era. They supposedly studied it and concluded you can’t teach it.
IMO, the Pirates’ issues are much broader, including obsession with launch angle and failure to recognize pitching patterns. So I don’t think their issues are as simple as signing the wrong guys.
Right on with both points, IMO. Head, Bowen, and White all fall into the draft an athlete and hope he can hit category for me. There's something inherent here that I just don't think any club has figured out how to force with development.
Oneil Cruz has that dawg in him. Massive athlete who has the preternatural gift for hitting.
Of course theres something severely wrong with our process, but I dont inherently hate the idea of just drafting superior athletes and seeing what happens. Even if you can't teach the hit tool, would always bet on the springy athlete to be able to uncover it
Wish that was so, but some of the best athletes have great difficulty adapting to the intricacies of the sport of Baseball.
Instead, look for athletically built hitters who hit the ball gap to gap, have a K/BB rate around 2/1 or better, and are comfortable standing in at the plate. You get that type of resource to start with and insert it into a strong developmental system where every level is into the same basics, and good things "could" happen (nothing is guaranteed). Contact is Primary, EBH power can be developed from there.
So about that Chandler graphic for those who follow the tjStats stuff...
Is that cliff-like dropoff in stuff normal for pitchers?
hello darkness my old friend
I had this really fun part of this article about Nick Yorke and the breakdown of what positions he has played in AAA.
But yea know, promotion and all.
Chandler has been lights out at AAA, but the distance between he and Thomas Harrington is not so great that Harrington will not also be successful as an MLB SP. Take for instance the Exit Velo's Harrington 86.6 mph, Chandler 84.6 mph - both would seem to be in the excellent range. Launch Angle is more in favor of Chandler, but Harrington is 19.7 degrees, Chandler is 11.9 degrees. I'd rather they were closer together, but Chandler would be excellent and Harrington would be very good.
Two very talented, but totally different styles of pitcher. Chandler's money pitch will be his Fastball up around 100, and Harrington probably 93/94 and movement with the FB, and his money pitch will be his Changeup. I liked what we got from Skenes and Jones, but I also liked the work of Ortiz and Falter. Love to have a guy with the gas, then a guy throwing less gas, but more movement, then another guy with gas, then possibly a LH throwing junk, etc. Teams coming for a 4 game series cannot just sit FB on every pitch for 4 days.
Can't let this go without saying again that Falter has been an absolute steal from the Phillies, and a guy with a lot of trade value during the off-season. 25 Starts, 128 IP, 1.7 fWAR. With the thoughts of 2025 with Keller, Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington, Oviedo, Ortiz, Falter - that's 8 - could see a package or two of a SP + a MI for bats during the off-season.
Falter is the only lefty there
The only one that really deserves a chance at a promotion is Sammy Sianni.
AA is the sink or swim level for prospects, Bowen & Cheng mostly sank. Cheng finished with a 95 wRC+ (2nd time through AA) buoyed by a high bb% & Bowen finished with a 91 wRC+
Neither appear to have the hit tool to have any success in the majors.
Siani will probably be in the AFL this Fall. Yorke is young, but already in AAA, I doubt the Pirates send him to the AFL. Brannigan was in the AFL last year, but could return simply due to the number of AB's he missed due to injury this year.
Do we really know if they have the hit tool or not? This organization desperately needs a revamped hitting development system before final judgment is made on guys like Cheng and Bowen.
I strongly believe in the old scouting adage that you can't teach the hit tool, as I see Catch note below.
This goes back at least to the Beane/Oak era. They supposedly studied it and concluded you can’t teach it.
IMO, the Pirates’ issues are much broader, including obsession with launch angle and failure to recognize pitching patterns. So I don’t think their issues are as simple as signing the wrong guys.
Oh interesting, I don't think I ever read that part about the A's before.
But very much agree. I don't know if it's launch angle specifically but dev issues certainly remain.
The A’s thing is like ancient history now.
I thought Cheng did, but I'm guessing his exit velos are holding back the hit tool.
In Bowen, they drafted an athlete.
You can't teach the hit tool. You either have it or you don't.
Right on with both points, IMO. Head, Bowen, and White all fall into the draft an athlete and hope he can hit category for me. There's something inherent here that I just don't think any club has figured out how to force with development.
Oneil Cruz has that dawg in him. Massive athlete who has the preternatural gift for hitting.
The others, not so much.
Of course theres something severely wrong with our process, but I dont inherently hate the idea of just drafting superior athletes and seeing what happens. Even if you can't teach the hit tool, would always bet on the springy athlete to be able to uncover it
Wish that was so, but some of the best athletes have great difficulty adapting to the intricacies of the sport of Baseball.
Instead, look for athletically built hitters who hit the ball gap to gap, have a K/BB rate around 2/1 or better, and are comfortable standing in at the plate. You get that type of resource to start with and insert it into a strong developmental system where every level is into the same basics, and good things "could" happen (nothing is guaranteed). Contact is Primary, EBH power can be developed from there.
Common denominator - they were all 3 drafted as prep kids.
Whether it's a 16-year-old Latin kid, or an 18-year-old from the states, the hit tool really doesn't show itself until they face pro arms.
Hell, even some highly touted college bats look good until they face elite arms. Ask Torkelson or Henry Davis.
Who would say no first on a Torkelson for Davis straight up?
Oof.
For Pirate hitting prospects, AA is the sink-like-a-rock or sink-like-a-stone level.