Good thing they are all set…Grichuk and Kim or bust this off-season? I’m thinking they may just go get a hays or grichuk and maybe grab a veteran starter like quintana or gibson?
DK says $100M payroll, we are at $79M. They have $21M to spend. I just want an impact bat and I’ll be happy.
I don’t completely disagree. But if they get a Quintana or gibson. They would eat innings and probably be a 2 WAR pitcher. Then you can throw Ashcraft and burrows in the pen. They both will be on inning limits. Maybe give them spot starts every once and awhile. I think Ashcraft is the next closer and with his health issues why not just move him to the pen now?
Top three rounds of prep arms from 2020 and 2021 below:
2020
Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko, Justin Lange, Dax Fulton, Ben Hernandez, Jared Jones, Jared Kelley, Tink Hence, Connor Phillips, Alex Santos, Kyle Harrison, Tekoah Roby, Hunter Barnhart. Jones and Harrison have the early lead here and compared to many of the arms here, have Greg Maddux level control. Roby and Hence are prospects for the Cards of varying repute. The rest, near as I can tell, are hurt, bad, or can’t throw strikes. Sometimes all three!
2021
Jackson Jobe, Frank Mozzicato, Andrew Painter, Chase Petty, Maddux Bruns, Anthony Solometo, Ben Kudrna, Calvin Ziegler, Bubba Chandler, Jacob Steinmetz, Michael Morales, Brock Selvidge, Drew Grey, Peter Heubeck. Three of the top four pitching prospects in baseball (Jobe, Painter, Chandler) head this group. A couple others (Petty, Kudrna) are solid pitching prospects too. A pretty good group.
2022
Dylan Lesko, Owen Murphy, Brandon Barreira, Noah Schultz, JR Ritchie, Robby Snelling, Jacob Miller, Jackson Ferris, Jackson Cox, Cole Phillips, Walter Ford, Karson Milbrandt. Schultz is another big prospect, but many of these arms have gone under the knife already: in fact, all of the first five, save Schultz. Lesko seems to be exhibit A to refute the idea TJ surgery is routine. Ritchie has rebounded from his surgery pretty well and Ferris has looked good. The rest are injured, bad, or in the Marlins organization (some are all three).
I’m not sure what to glean from all this, other than to satisfy my curiosity about how many prep arms get drafted early. It settles in that 12-15 range. It seems to satisfy the belief that it’s high-risk, high-reward.
AM - Thanks for the info. With the 6th pick, the Pirates could pull a possible power hitting LH batter. If not, both of these first two pitchers could be available.
On the subject of risk, the Pirates lately, so far, have mostly avoided the usual two risks with prep pitchers: injuries and inability to develop command. I've wondered whether that's just been good selections (like drafting highly athletic guys such as Jones and Chandler), or whether maybe generally the outlook is improving across the sport. I don't follow prospects generally, as opposed to Pirate prospects, enough to have an idea of the latter. Maybe better coaching, all these pitching labs/clinics, other developments? Injuries are gonna happen, of course, but I've seen years where the Pirates signed a bunch of prep pitchers and they all got hurt right off the bat.
Prep pitchers may still be risky, but take out Roki and 4 of the 5 best pitching prospects in the game right now are prep arms.
Still don't love the strategy in a capped draft since it seems now you gotta pay just about any warm body round1 money to buy them out of college, but it does seem like we're seeing the big arms come from that route.
I used to be a strong anti-prep guy in the top half of the first round or so. But recent examples like Jobe and Painter are pretty notable examples to bring me more to the middle.
I’d love for someone smarter than I to figure out what are some common threads with these prep arms that seem to stand out even more when they hit pro ball. Athleticism? Diverse arsenal?
I kinda thought it was shaping up like that, but I pretty much tune out once the Pirates get their picks. Remember back when it was college arms, college arms, college arms? Seems like a prior era now.
Probably his command/control, holding his velocity, or do to being a two way player would be my guess. I think he goes top 5 if he performs well this spring unless more bats take big steps forward.
I like this Schoolcraft kid, but I was totally impressed with the Lefty batter who worked him for a walk after being down 1-2 in the count. 2 of the last 3 pitches were pitches that were out of the zone wide, but very close.
Profar to Braves. 3/42.
If only Pirates had a place for a 4 WAR OF.
Good thing they are all set…Grichuk and Kim or bust this off-season? I’m thinking they may just go get a hays or grichuk and maybe grab a veteran starter like quintana or gibson?
DK says $100M payroll, we are at $79M. They have $21M to spend. I just want an impact bat and I’ll be happy.
Forget a SP and allocate those dollars to the pen. Just my opinion.
I don’t completely disagree. But if they get a Quintana or gibson. They would eat innings and probably be a 2 WAR pitcher. Then you can throw Ashcraft and burrows in the pen. They both will be on inning limits. Maybe give them spot starts every once and awhile. I think Ashcraft is the next closer and with his health issues why not just move him to the pen now?
Top three rounds of prep arms from 2020 and 2021 below:
2020
Mick Abel, Nick Bitsko, Justin Lange, Dax Fulton, Ben Hernandez, Jared Jones, Jared Kelley, Tink Hence, Connor Phillips, Alex Santos, Kyle Harrison, Tekoah Roby, Hunter Barnhart. Jones and Harrison have the early lead here and compared to many of the arms here, have Greg Maddux level control. Roby and Hence are prospects for the Cards of varying repute. The rest, near as I can tell, are hurt, bad, or can’t throw strikes. Sometimes all three!
2021
Jackson Jobe, Frank Mozzicato, Andrew Painter, Chase Petty, Maddux Bruns, Anthony Solometo, Ben Kudrna, Calvin Ziegler, Bubba Chandler, Jacob Steinmetz, Michael Morales, Brock Selvidge, Drew Grey, Peter Heubeck. Three of the top four pitching prospects in baseball (Jobe, Painter, Chandler) head this group. A couple others (Petty, Kudrna) are solid pitching prospects too. A pretty good group.
2022
Dylan Lesko, Owen Murphy, Brandon Barreira, Noah Schultz, JR Ritchie, Robby Snelling, Jacob Miller, Jackson Ferris, Jackson Cox, Cole Phillips, Walter Ford, Karson Milbrandt. Schultz is another big prospect, but many of these arms have gone under the knife already: in fact, all of the first five, save Schultz. Lesko seems to be exhibit A to refute the idea TJ surgery is routine. Ritchie has rebounded from his surgery pretty well and Ferris has looked good. The rest are injured, bad, or in the Marlins organization (some are all three).
I’m not sure what to glean from all this, other than to satisfy my curiosity about how many prep arms get drafted early. It settles in that 12-15 range. It seems to satisfy the belief that it’s high-risk, high-reward.
I wanted Lesko so bad. Good thing I’m not the GM.
God I’d be terrible at it.
AM - Thanks for the info. With the 6th pick, the Pirates could pull a possible power hitting LH batter. If not, both of these first two pitchers could be available.
On the subject of risk, the Pirates lately, so far, have mostly avoided the usual two risks with prep pitchers: injuries and inability to develop command. I've wondered whether that's just been good selections (like drafting highly athletic guys such as Jones and Chandler), or whether maybe generally the outlook is improving across the sport. I don't follow prospects generally, as opposed to Pirate prospects, enough to have an idea of the latter. Maybe better coaching, all these pitching labs/clinics, other developments? Injuries are gonna happen, of course, but I've seen years where the Pirates signed a bunch of prep pitchers and they all got hurt right off the bat.
Had a related take on the issue...
Prep pitchers may still be risky, but take out Roki and 4 of the 5 best pitching prospects in the game right now are prep arms.
Still don't love the strategy in a capped draft since it seems now you gotta pay just about any warm body round1 money to buy them out of college, but it does seem like we're seeing the big arms come from that route.
I used to be a strong anti-prep guy in the top half of the first round or so. But recent examples like Jobe and Painter are pretty notable examples to bring me more to the middle.
I’d love for someone smarter than I to figure out what are some common threads with these prep arms that seem to stand out even more when they hit pro ball. Athleticism? Diverse arsenal?
I kinda thought it was shaping up like that, but I pretty much tune out once the Pirates get their picks. Remember back when it was college arms, college arms, college arms? Seems like a prior era now.
Wouldn’t be mad if they drafted Hernandez.
Looks like another DUDE in the Skenes, Jones, Chandler line of DUDES, to me.
Definitely. With the obligatory “it’s insanely early,” there are three really good arms I’d be cool with at 6 (the other two being the college arms).
https://youtu.be/OEo2mRF9su8?si=ODZqyd-I4hc386Za
Schoolcraft could figure in as well.
D’oh forgot him. Why do you think he’s a shade behind the other three? Two-way guy so less info on him as an arm? Riskier because the size?
Probably his command/control, holding his velocity, or do to being a two way player would be my guess. I think he goes top 5 if he performs well this spring unless more bats take big steps forward.
Stop taunting us with Kruz Schoolcraft!!
I like this Schoolcraft kid, but I was totally impressed with the Lefty batter who worked him for a walk after being down 1-2 in the count. 2 of the last 3 pitches were pitches that were out of the zone wide, but very close.
With a name like that, he has to be good