There are a few reasons I think Triolo has been shorted, most of which have been covered in the comments. Historically he’s had a relatively low xBH and SLG and that’s a turnoff for a lot of people, even if a player has a good hit tool and gets on base a good amount.
Triolo doesn’t yet have enough PA’s to be qualified per Baseball Savant, but his comparative stat %s are still visible. Triolo’s underlying hitting metrics like EV, Barrel %, and Hard Hit % are relatively low (though, interestingly, his Sweet Spot % is very high).
I think this leads the sabermetrically doctrinaire in particular to dismiss Triolo as a slap hitter benefiting from luck and to bang away on his relatively high BABIP as being unsustainable and due for regression.
In my experience quant types especially will reserve condemnation of a guy with a high BABIP (or a low BABIP, for that matter) if that guy smacks the shit out of a baseball.
FanGraphs has been borderline obsessed with Ke’Bryan Hayes even when he was not getting base hits, because he smacks the shit out of a baseball.
I like Triolo a lot. He’s a talented, very smart, very driven, very hard-working ballplayer. I think his power will improve as will his SO %.
There is no metric for the ability to place hits or find gaps... therefore the ability does not exist to the "sabermetrically doctrinaire" (or data Jacobins as I prefer). It is a classic paradigm in science... theories are built exclusively around what can be measured and ignore everything that falls outside the predictions until the number of anomalies (i.e. guys who put us higher than expected BABIP and so forth) build up to the point that the paradigm collapses. Then new tools are developed to measure the anomalous data and a new paradigm forms. This is Thomas Kuhns... history of science 101. I used to teach that subject.
This is the funniest thread I’ve read in a long time. Thanks so much! Just got back from the hospital tending to my dad and Data Jacobins was the perfect brain cleanser. Going to follow it up with some bourbon. Thanks!
Now prove that the ability to repeat said skill actually exists.
There is a billion dollar industry that spends tens of millions of dollars every year searching for any possible manner to beat their competition, and yet you guys still are convinced you're the smartest ones in the room.
Truly impressive, fellas. What I'd give for a fraction of this self-confidence.
I guarantee you that Maxwell, Faraday, Kelvin, and Joule were much smarter than any of the guys running baseball teams right now. They also believed that there was an invisible ether through which all things moved and that this ether had mechanical properties like a massive set of tiny gears. Science advances. Baseball has entered the world of science. Welcome to it.
Exactly right. One has to wonder at what point the data Jacobins (LMAO at that BTW) are no longer bearish about a guy with perennially high BABIP and perennially low EV, barrel %, etc. My guess is they ignore those guys or view them as exceptions that prove the rule.
I was a philosophy major FWIW. I remember Kuhn probably better than most of the philosophers I’ve long forgotten.
Actually, Triolo's barrel % is very high. He is a classic contact hitter with excellent bat control. He just doesn't have much power (i.e. exit velocity). There used to be a lot more of those types of guys in the majors who won batting titles and so forth. They are fewer and farther between now as the data Jacobins take over and hire hitting coaches who share their "philosophy."
Barrel rate is determined by exit velocity and launch angle. No ball that comes off the bat at less than 98 MPH is considered "barreled." However, balls hit above 98 MPH have the launch angle of "barrel" augmented so that higher exit velocities result in more barrels even if the batter swings under the ball. So... the metric "barrel rate" is heavily biased in favor of more powerful hitters. It is a classic case of fitting data to the model rather than the model to the data. So, even though Triolo hit a very high percentage of line drives (which would tend to indicate getting something like a barrel on the ball rather than swinging under it or over it), because his exit velocities on these were lower than average, many did not count officially as "barrels."
(Admittedly) without any deep digging on my part, stuff like this makes me wonder why there isn’t more attention and anticipation tied to this guy — at least among the wider media and fan base. (I know he gets some love here from some ppl)
Seems like even a “good-ish” hit tool would make a very valuable player when combined with the quality and flexibility of his glove game.
Is there a specific hole or shortcoming he needs to fix or prove, before more people get on board? Or is it just a matter of time?
The attention usually goes to 3 types of players. 1) a top rated prospect, 2) a guy with good offensive numbers in the minors or 3) a guy that has proven he can hit in the majors.
1) He is not a prospect since he is 26 years old. He is 1 year younger than Hayes who has been in the league for 4 years. Termarr is 19 while Nick, Bae and Liover are still 2 or 3 years younger than Triolo.
2) His .284 minor league average with little power does not draw a lot of attention.
3) Last year his .298 average should have grabbed attention, but striking out over 30% of his at bats causes doubts for a singles hitter.
That is why the spotlight has not been on him. Now if you have watched him play defense, you know he is a big leaguer that is above average at all infield spots. If anyone saw him play the end of last year, we know his bat is legit. Some guys it just takes longer to develop.
He's a weird one. FG gave him a 45 but figured he'd be no more than a parttime infielder and didn't see a good roster fit given we have Hayes and a million MIF 40-45 sorts. The whole way up he was basically a 120 wRC+ guy with excellent defense. Never got a revised grade or much attention. Probably just the perceived lack of power made him sort of a boring prospect for prospect hounds. He's got a lot of great tools though given the d, his speed and he looks like a decent baserunner, even. Curious how this more upright stance at the plate translates for him over a full season, too.
I think it’s the lack of a loud tool apart from the glove. Especially the power, which is just decent. Like, he’s a big guy who plays 3B so if he’s not a 30-HR type he’s just a guy.
Over the years, he’s usually gotten typecast as a C+ level guy. But every now and then I’ve seen comments about how some scout raves about him. There are believers out there.
Ok, thanks, just wondered…. Just seemed odd, without going deep into the layers of stats, that from something simple like OPS his minor league numbers looked as good as Ke if not slightly higher, and his glove not the same but neither a large step down…. Yet Ke was widely viewed as a franchise cornerstone that ppl were clamoring to get called up, yet JT seems like lot of folks feel he’s no more than a marginal fit anywhere on the field.
That dichotomy just seems odd, and I was curious about from whence it comes.
Triolo's carrying tool has been his batting average and OBP, which many who subscribe to the modern school of hitting metric analysis believe are unsustainable. His BABIP last year in the majors being the thing that everyone points to as absurdly high (which is was an outlier even for him). Bottom line... he has consistently outperformed metric analysis and the data Jacobins hate that.
He's not going to put up a .430 BABIP or whatever consistently, but if his minor league performance is any indication, he will hit for average and get on base at a pretty good clip.
I think the only real knock on him has been a lack of power. In an interview he recently stated that Haines was working with him to help him unlock his power. Hopefully they don't make him a .220 power guy.
There are a few reasons I think Triolo has been shorted, most of which have been covered in the comments. Historically he’s had a relatively low xBH and SLG and that’s a turnoff for a lot of people, even if a player has a good hit tool and gets on base a good amount.
Triolo doesn’t yet have enough PA’s to be qualified per Baseball Savant, but his comparative stat %s are still visible. Triolo’s underlying hitting metrics like EV, Barrel %, and Hard Hit % are relatively low (though, interestingly, his Sweet Spot % is very high).
I think this leads the sabermetrically doctrinaire in particular to dismiss Triolo as a slap hitter benefiting from luck and to bang away on his relatively high BABIP as being unsustainable and due for regression.
In my experience quant types especially will reserve condemnation of a guy with a high BABIP (or a low BABIP, for that matter) if that guy smacks the shit out of a baseball.
FanGraphs has been borderline obsessed with Ke’Bryan Hayes even when he was not getting base hits, because he smacks the shit out of a baseball.
I like Triolo a lot. He’s a talented, very smart, very driven, very hard-working ballplayer. I think his power will improve as will his SO %.
There is no metric for the ability to place hits or find gaps... therefore the ability does not exist to the "sabermetrically doctrinaire" (or data Jacobins as I prefer). It is a classic paradigm in science... theories are built exclusively around what can be measured and ignore everything that falls outside the predictions until the number of anomalies (i.e. guys who put us higher than expected BABIP and so forth) build up to the point that the paradigm collapses. Then new tools are developed to measure the anomalous data and a new paradigm forms. This is Thomas Kuhns... history of science 101. I used to teach that subject.
This is the funniest thread I’ve read in a long time. Thanks so much! Just got back from the hospital tending to my dad and Data Jacobins was the perfect brain cleanser. Going to follow it up with some bourbon. Thanks!
Now prove that the ability to repeat said skill actually exists.
There is a billion dollar industry that spends tens of millions of dollars every year searching for any possible manner to beat their competition, and yet you guys still are convinced you're the smartest ones in the room.
Truly impressive, fellas. What I'd give for a fraction of this self-confidence.
I guarantee you that Maxwell, Faraday, Kelvin, and Joule were much smarter than any of the guys running baseball teams right now. They also believed that there was an invisible ether through which all things moved and that this ether had mechanical properties like a massive set of tiny gears. Science advances. Baseball has entered the world of science. Welcome to it.
Science is precisely what makes your suggestion so preposterous!
The act of hitting a round ball with a round bat is the most challenging single skill in all of sport.
The idea that a hitter can develop "command" of the contact he makes belies the reality of the physics involved.
Exactly right. One has to wonder at what point the data Jacobins (LMAO at that BTW) are no longer bearish about a guy with perennially high BABIP and perennially low EV, barrel %, etc. My guess is they ignore those guys or view them as exceptions that prove the rule.
I was a philosophy major FWIW. I remember Kuhn probably better than most of the philosophers I’ve long forgotten.
Actually, Triolo's barrel % is very high. He is a classic contact hitter with excellent bat control. He just doesn't have much power (i.e. exit velocity). There used to be a lot more of those types of guys in the majors who won batting titles and so forth. They are fewer and farther between now as the data Jacobins take over and hire hitting coaches who share their "philosophy."
Jared Triolo struck out in almost a third of his plate appearances last year.
What games are you watching?
By those types of guys, you mean like Ty Cobb? LOL
Dude probably wouldn’t make it out of AA nowadays. Oh well. Old man yells at clouds.
I would have thought Triolo’s Barrel % was high as well, but Savant has it as relatively low: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jared-triolo-669707?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Barrel rate is determined by exit velocity and launch angle. No ball that comes off the bat at less than 98 MPH is considered "barreled." However, balls hit above 98 MPH have the launch angle of "barrel" augmented so that higher exit velocities result in more barrels even if the batter swings under the ball. So... the metric "barrel rate" is heavily biased in favor of more powerful hitters. It is a classic case of fitting data to the model rather than the model to the data. So, even though Triolo hit a very high percentage of line drives (which would tend to indicate getting something like a barrel on the ball rather than swinging under it or over it), because his exit velocities on these were lower than average, many did not count officially as "barrels."
This is fundamentally false. Full stop. This is not how barrels are calculated. You made this up.
Just like they don't give you more runs the further you hit it over the fence, they don't award you more barrels for hitting it harder than 98.
Triolo tribe checking in!
(Admittedly) without any deep digging on my part, stuff like this makes me wonder why there isn’t more attention and anticipation tied to this guy — at least among the wider media and fan base. (I know he gets some love here from some ppl)
Seems like even a “good-ish” hit tool would make a very valuable player when combined with the quality and flexibility of his glove game.
Is there a specific hole or shortcoming he needs to fix or prove, before more people get on board? Or is it just a matter of time?
I always like using cases like his to refine my trust in which outlets do the best.
BA had him below Peguero, Gonzo, and Bae (lol). FG had him neck and neck with Peggy and clear above the rest. Their writeup read almost spot on.
If you REALLY want to laugh then look at Pipeline.
The attention usually goes to 3 types of players. 1) a top rated prospect, 2) a guy with good offensive numbers in the minors or 3) a guy that has proven he can hit in the majors.
1) He is not a prospect since he is 26 years old. He is 1 year younger than Hayes who has been in the league for 4 years. Termarr is 19 while Nick, Bae and Liover are still 2 or 3 years younger than Triolo.
2) His .284 minor league average with little power does not draw a lot of attention.
3) Last year his .298 average should have grabbed attention, but striking out over 30% of his at bats causes doubts for a singles hitter.
That is why the spotlight has not been on him. Now if you have watched him play defense, you know he is a big leaguer that is above average at all infield spots. If anyone saw him play the end of last year, we know his bat is legit. Some guys it just takes longer to develop.
The pandemic year probably cost him a lot in prospect ranking as well as a couple injuries that limited overall stats.
He's a weird one. FG gave him a 45 but figured he'd be no more than a parttime infielder and didn't see a good roster fit given we have Hayes and a million MIF 40-45 sorts. The whole way up he was basically a 120 wRC+ guy with excellent defense. Never got a revised grade or much attention. Probably just the perceived lack of power made him sort of a boring prospect for prospect hounds. He's got a lot of great tools though given the d, his speed and he looks like a decent baserunner, even. Curious how this more upright stance at the plate translates for him over a full season, too.
I think it’s the lack of a loud tool apart from the glove. Especially the power, which is just decent. Like, he’s a big guy who plays 3B so if he’s not a 30-HR type he’s just a guy.
Over the years, he’s usually gotten typecast as a C+ level guy. But every now and then I’ve seen comments about how some scout raves about him. There are believers out there.
Ok, thanks, just wondered…. Just seemed odd, without going deep into the layers of stats, that from something simple like OPS his minor league numbers looked as good as Ke if not slightly higher, and his glove not the same but neither a large step down…. Yet Ke was widely viewed as a franchise cornerstone that ppl were clamoring to get called up, yet JT seems like lot of folks feel he’s no more than a marginal fit anywhere on the field.
That dichotomy just seems odd, and I was curious about from whence it comes.
Age per level
Triolo's carrying tool has been his batting average and OBP, which many who subscribe to the modern school of hitting metric analysis believe are unsustainable. His BABIP last year in the majors being the thing that everyone points to as absurdly high (which is was an outlier even for him). Bottom line... he has consistently outperformed metric analysis and the data Jacobins hate that.
Can't wait to see how you walk yourself out of this schtick when he inevitably doesn't repeat his performance.
He's not going to put up a .430 BABIP or whatever consistently, but if his minor league performance is any indication, he will hit for average and get on base at a pretty good clip.
Which is precisely what the people/analysis you're railing against are saying!
Give it up, dude!
I think the only real knock on him has been a lack of power. In an interview he recently stated that Haines was working with him to help him unlock his power. Hopefully they don't make him a .220 power guy.