25 Comments

Here’s another Player A vs B vs C

Stat A B C

rWAR 79.4 75.1 48.6

AB 9512 7658 7425

HR 267 389 299

BA .283 .267 .276

Who would you take first?

(I think that’s an easy one)

And who is second?

Expand full comment

In your Player A vs Player B situation, I’d take Player A b/c he had the only true outlier stat (swinging strike rate)

Expand full comment

Great article!

If it was my call, I’d have Castillo repeat the league and work on his switch-hitting

He hit over 0.350 in 2022 so you’d expect his true ability is somewhere between 0.210 and 0.350

Expand full comment

Another thing about Jesus Castillo is that he played every position except Pitcher and Catcher at Bradenton in 2023. Hitting is his major shortcoming, but he did make the Mendoza Line hitting .209. However, being able to work 102 Walks, 13 HBP, 39 SB, and play wherever needed mostly as a teenager means this is a kid (all 144 lbs of him) to watch. Positions, innings, fielding %age:

3B 294 innings 935 Fld%

SS 285 innings 959 Fld%

2B 208 innings 983 Fld%

1B 128 innings 993 Fld%

In the OF he only played 44 innings in LF, 26 innings in RF, and only 1 inning in CF

Expand full comment

Is there any concern that he was used as a UT in A ball? Feels like that may say something about the way the Pirates see him. Or maybe it’s a positive as it speaks to his defensive ability & baseball IQ?

Expand full comment

Speaking of Castillos and 100 walks. Old friend Diego Castillo walked 97 times this year.

Expand full comment

Got rewarded by getting DFAd today…….

Expand full comment
Dec 22, 2023·edited Dec 22, 2023

LOVE this topic.

I'm increasingly aligned with the wisdom of our baseball elders on this one.

IMO, the overarching disappointment in the current state of the Pittsburgh Pirate's system stems from the type of prospect analysis that placed substantial future value on Jesus Castillo types. Super young kids who had yet to perform but showed promising traits.

Except baseball remains terribly hard, and we've barely improved on our ability to guess which of the hundreds of Jesus Castillo's out there will actually figure out how to hit.

This, of course, is not how it used to be.

We ended up in this place because orgs looking for competitive advantages started targeted kids earlier and earlier after realizing premium talent could be acquired at bargain bin prices. More attention placed on these types generated more demand for them, which in turn increased their value. A teenager in A-ball who used to be a lotto ticket in a trade that was headlined by a Top 100 prospect with AA success turned into the headliner himself. As their real-world value increased, so did their stature in prospect rankings.

There is no evidence I know of that indicates this has lead to a higher hit rate, though, the opposite if anything.

The question posed above asks whether traits and age or traits and *performance* matter more, and I still don't see much argument against the latter being superior. We have to be smart enough to understand the difference between scouting the stat line and identifying production that translates, but I've been burned far too many times by the Cole Tucker's of the world to place such value on them until they actually produce.

Expand full comment

With the increased popularity of baseball, we have also seen a rise in the number of experts who have opinions and air time. But, it still comes down to what the player does between the lines in competition.

A few days ago there was a lot of conversation about a big trade involving us sending some of our better pitching prospects off. Turned my stomach because I do not have the faith in this GM or our system to know what they are getting in return. Jared Jones for instance. All he does in 2023 is start 25 games, 126 IP in AA/AAA, 5-9, 3.85 ERA, 10.4/3.6 K/BB/9 as a 21/22 year old. Something tells me this kid knows how to pitch!

Why are we not thinking of him as a #4 or #5 guy in the Rotation to start 2024? "He was only throwing 2 pitches at the end of the season". It's not how many pitches a guy throws, it's how well he throws the pitches in his repertoire. Going down the stretch toward 25 starts I would say he was throwing what he could get over and trying to save the stress on his arm. Yes, he was probably tired. Going into 2024 as a 22/23 year old, I feel sure he has the capability to develop a workable 3rd pitch. Sometimes it takes young pitchers longer to develop that 3rd pitch simply because their other two pitches are strong enough to get them to MLB - good example would be Tyler Glasnow.

Expand full comment

Why rush him? The Pirates aren’t contenders next year with the current constructed roster. I don’t want to see him turn into another Ro or Ortiz throwing two pitches and struggling after the league adjusts to him.

Expand full comment

Good stuff. I like it.

Expand full comment

I started following the Pirates minor league system closely in the 70s (mainly driven by the advent of the 6’5” phenom that was Dave Parker) and then got into the Bill James Baseball Abstract in the 80s. As many of you probably know, James was a fanatical believer in *performance* to the point that he developed one of the first systems of minor league equivalency to predict major league performance. James rejected the tools based approach, and basically said if you can’t do it on the field I’m not interested.

I believe that James was right, which is why I am leery of this site placing so much emphasis on advanced metrics. I realize there is a happy medium here, and advanced data can be useful and predictive, but I can’t take a prospect seriously who has good spin rates, but an ERA over 5.00, or one with great exit velocities, but who struggles to exceed the Mendoza line.

I remember the days in the 70s when the organization that Joe L. Brown built would consistently have 2-3 players in the top 10 league batting averages in their individual leagues, and sometimes even more. They had such fantastic depth that they could toss away players like Willie Randolph or Craig Reynolds, or trade six prospects to the A’s to get Phil Garner. The whole approach was based on finding people who could actually play the game and prove it on the field.

Expand full comment

I love this!! If you have to dig deep in the stats to find the next star, he is probably not going to be a star. If you want to find a specialist type player or pitcher, then dig deep in the stats. I've always felt all stats are fun to look at, but they are often used incorrectly.

My classic example is if your hitter is 3 for 3 that game so far, don't pinch hit for him.

The mental part of the game in a certain situation can sometimes throw all of the stats out the window.

Expand full comment

Great analogy. I, too, identify as being firmly in happy medium territory at this point.

I respect Anthony's attention to the new stuff and find it interesting, just don't really see an argument in favor of applying *current* value to traits that may develop into *future* value.

Expand full comment
author

I think there's a nice happy medium, that we sometimes won't even accept as the Pirates themselves haven't given us reason to believe.

Expand full comment
Dec 23, 2023Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

If you examine their drafting, it has to raise concerns. They go in heavily for the tracking data, especially spin, and I'm not seeing much evidence that it's working for them. One example out of many that keeps bugging me is two LHPs from 2022, Dominic Perachi and Miguel Fulgencio. Based on the reports about their stuff, especially the high-spin breaking stuff, they seemed like potential sleepers to me, but both were unimpressive at Bradenton. Neither had the velocity claimed in the scouting reports and neither showed an especially impressive breaking ball. Fulgencio got himself released after one season, with the same number of walks as Ks. Perachi was average or below in every area.

Expand full comment
author

It's seemed very few players they have reach or maintain their velo's, let alone add.

Expand full comment
Dec 23, 2023Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Which is weird by itself. There’ve always been prospects who didn’t have the velocity you see in BA or wherever. A guy hits 98 once and it becomes a “98-mph fastball.” Or a guy has an unexplainable velocity spike that he can’t sustain, which does happen. But in years of following this system, I’ve never seen such a widespread pattern of pitching prospects never reaching their reported velo and almost none improving their velo.

Expand full comment

Nice to have Castillo on my radar now!

And I've been a fan of Harrington's since reading about him when we drafted him (it's why I liked our '22 draft about as much as our '21 draft), but this summary from the Prospects Live article increases my optimism:

"Harrington is the real deal and has number 2 starter-type upside, as there’s a chance he has two plus secondaries with plus command."

Expand full comment

I was kinda shocked by that statement as I was figuring his ceiling was more like 3ish so i wonder if thats a shared sentiment or if they are higher on him than most?

Expand full comment

Pirates re-signed SS Francisco Acuna to a MiL deal. Org. guy who reached MiL free agency.

Expand full comment

Jesus castillo true breakout this season confirmed! AM said it first

Expand full comment