Mailbag: Jared Triolo comparison, Prospects starting assignments, fastball shape
Another weekly mailbag article.
LeeFoo - Is Jared Triolo the next Ben Zobrist?
There was an article on MLB.com that kind of broached this subject, but it’s fun to look at it again.
I’ve noticed on some social media sites that people are hesitant to assign Triolo a ‘utility’ role solely because they believe it will reduce their playing time.
Depending on how the roster shapes up, there is no reason that Triolo can’t play every day while bouncing around the infield. He’s even added shortstop this spring, giving him the ultimate position flexibility.
If he plays all four infield positions, plus one extra, that means he’s in the lineup five times a week, plenty enough to be considered an ‘everyday’ player.
Zobrist was a different animal when it came to the ‘super-utility’ moniker and isn’t easily replicated. He had back-to-back years with 20+ home runs and put up a WAR of 5.7 or better.
I’m not sure Triolo has a 20-home run season in his bat, but he can be a really effective hitter with it and is showing the versatility to stick in the lineup at multiple positions.
So, Ben Zobrist-lite?
Warren P (@SMYasirShay): Do you know if Skenes will start out in AAA Indy? And where will Termarr Johnson start out? AA Altoona?
I’ll want more than one game to say one way or another, but after his outing against the Rays, I’d be less surprised if he started in Indianapolis. Skenes threw 6.2 innings last year, and even Stephen Strasburg and Mark Prior - probably the two players he’s most compared to when it comes to hype - spent more time in Double-A before moving up.
Termarr is actually a little interesting. He spent almost as much time in High-A as Tsung-Che Cheng did (I think Nola pointed that out to me), and the latter was deemed ready to move up to Altoona.
I’d definitely say that Termarr has a better overall game, upside and all, but Cheng’s approach may be a little more refined when evaluating the two after 50ish games in High-A.
If I’m betting money, I’d say he starts in Greensboro but could move quickly. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if they bumped him straight to Altoona.
PNC Yark (@eYARKulation): So much talk about fastball shape nowadays. Why is it so important and who has the best in the system?
This is one of the reasons I love the following baseball; it really lets me nerd about some things. Fastball shape is something that I really just started diving into this offseason, and the more I learn, the more some things take shape.
If you really want a deep dive, NolaJeffy did an article that kind of provides an ‘Introduction’ to pitch shape when it comes to Vertical Approach Angle (VAA). It does a fantastic job of providing a beginning dive into how things work.
It was fantastic work, and I still kind of lean on him sometimes for some of this stuff, or at least run something by him to make sure I’m reading what I’m reading properly.
Digging into fastball shape and such helped me understand one of the base questions I had about the game - why are there instances where someone who is throwing in the low to mid-90s gets more swing and miss than someone who throws in the mid to upper 90s?
One player that came to mind was Mike Burrows, who always seemed to get a lot more swing and misses with his fastball despite throwing around 93-95 with his fastball.
When it comes to Induced Vertical Break (IVB), few in the system are better than Burrows (who had an average of just over 20” of IVB before his injury last year).
Baseball America had a write up on IVB and it ‘removes gravity from the equation and looks at how much a pitch moves up or down from a point of zero.’ Tim Williams at BA mentioned that Bubba Chandler had an IVB on his fastball around 20”.
More of a lesser-known prospect, Brandan Bidois, averaged just under 20” of IVB on his fastball. I did a write up of him during the season that also gave some additional information on IVB and VAA.
One interesting thing that is making its way through the internet is the comparison between Jared Jones’ fastball metrics in spring training and Jacob deGrom from the 2023 season.
As far as overall shape, Jones would have one of the better ones, at least from his spring showings.
The article by Nola highlights David Bednar, and I even go over someone like Carmen Mlodzinski, who has put up solid metrics when it comes to vertical and horizontal approaches.
As we saw with Paul Skenes having one of his 102 mph fastballs turned around for a home run - major league hitters are really good.
Having the additional movement and approach angle helps keep hitters from being able to effectively square up on the fastball. The data itself isn’t anything new, as Steven Brault mentioned on a Pirates spring broadcast, it’s the terminology that’s different.
These metrics really just help us quantify certain parts of the game more easily.
Coolest part to me about the IVB findings are actually how they show that *command* is the critical factor to success.
Jared Jones has tended to get hit hard through his minor league career in spite of plus-plus velo and plus-plus movement, while masters with similar traits like DeGrom and Strider have not, because IVB is only really useful when commanded above the belt. The qualities that make the pitch nearly unhittable when commanded at the top of the zone make it a liability middle-down.
Ashcraft has been optioned.