Very well written and presented. I see him as a SP, but it would probably serve him well to get opportunities to pitch less innings per game and therefore, less pitches. When he feels able, then maybe he can be stretched out to 3 or 4 innings, and possibly as a Starter in bullpen games.
Constantly im hearing writers talking about using our top prospect talent as multi inning relievers and the lack of baseball knowledge that suggests blows my mind. 1. Relief pitchers are cheap and replaceable, so taking your top talent and devaluing it would be idiotic. 2. We need starting pitching, badly. 3. Starting pitching cannot be bought via free agency anymore, and noone wants to trade it 4. If a player isn't able to get back until mid-season, an innings limit is moot because he's only tossing for a few months 12.starts at 6 innings would be less than 75 innings. There's no way he'd be able to.do more than that. You cant have someone toss 15 games at 2-3 innings and then expect them to be a useful starter the following year, its ridiculous its just impossible to increase the load enough safely. He needs as many healthy innings as possible in 2024 if he's able to be a starter in 2025. You cant look past that.
Usually ignore the 'you don't agree with me so you don't know ball' but oh well, if you are counting on a rookie pitcher, coming off of tommy John, with zero major league experience, to be a key piece in the rotation this season, it's already a failure. If he's not on an innings limit, he'll be on a pitch restriction, like Ashcraft was last year.
We are already talking about someone who has never topped 100 innings during a minor league season, which now it may be another two years before he reaches that, which by then he will be 26. If he can't stay healthy enough to be a starter, which has been the case already, then the best way to get value out of him is as a multi-inning guy, or even a regular reliever. It happens all the time.
You can keep him in the minors all year to build back up, that's fine, and try him as a starter in 2025. That'd work, and honestly I hope that's how they work it.
But if they want to get him in the majors this year, and have him make an impact somehow, it isn't as a starter.
"Someone who has never topped 100 innings during a minor league season."
In 4 minor league seasons before last year's injury, the last healthy season saw a stat line of 24 games (22 starts) and 94 innings. How can this in any way prepare a pitcher to be a starter in MLB? Even 5 IP for 22 starts is 110 IP. Not too terribly long ago, top pitching prospects in the minors would pitch 150-175 and sometimes even close to 200 IP!
It simply is unrealistic to expect success over 25-30 starts at 5-6 IP per start (125-180 IP) in the majors when full season minor league starters pitch less than 100 IP/year. We cry about development and injuries but I have yet to see real evidence to suggest that babying healthy minor league pitchers staves off injury and prepares them for success.
While I agree with your commentary at the end, who gives a crap about 2024? What the pirates always must focus on, is getting the greatest amount of value out of each player, and the most value from a recent top 100 prospect is not turning him into a reliever, it is getting him back up to speed as a starter and then using him in 2025 or trading him. This isnt debatable. We don't need multi innings relievers anymore than we need cruz playing first base, we must ALWAYS optimize value. Optimizing value isn't melting down a gold bar to fill a pothole, it is selling it for enough material to fill 100.potholes
It’s also important to remember that Bob and Ben have chosen not to fund an actual rotation. They’re going to have to improvise, possibly all year, like they did late in 2023. That’ll involve a ton of ever-shifting variables. When you refuse to behave like a major league team, following ideal major league practices with guys like Burrows isn’t possible.
Your last paragraph here is a strong stance, concise and well written. If this is how you feel about burrows in 2024 tell us in your first sentence…provide your justification… then slap your readers again at the end. Don’t save your dope for comments!
Is there an estimated return date for Burrows? I've heard the All-Star break is the target for Brubaker. If Burrows had surgery a month after Bru, is he really not back until mid August? I know each player and surgery can be different but that could also significantly play into the expectations. Before the off-season I thought Brubaker would be back sooner than the All-Star break so hopefully I have these dates wrong.
I fully expect him to be a spot starter/opener/long man for Pirates after AS break. And if all goes well, he’ll be counted on to be in rotation to open 2025 season.
I'll disagree. I think he picks up where he left off in 2023 before injury. He needs AAA time to prove he is MLB ready. A reasonable scenario is he comes back and builds his innings up starting as a 3 inning opener or regularly scheduled 3 inning relief appearances. By the time he builds up to 5 innings or more and has the level of success needed IMO to merit a promotion it will likely be the end of the year nicely setting himself up to battle for a rotation spot in 2025. That is somewhat ignoring that some pitchers struggle in year one post TJ which would make him even less of a MLB candidate in 2024. Net: if he was not ready for a MLB roster spot to start 2023, not sure how a TJ injury suddenly makes him MLB ready.
If he finishes 2024 with like 40 innings there's no way he could be expected to toss 150 innings in 2025. Regardless of aaa or pittsburgh, he needs to be pitching full outings to get his stamina up for his value as a trade piece or to the pirates as a starter which is what we need from him
I think he was ready at the start of 2023 but he was going to get held for super 2. He will start in AAA as a piggy back guy to build innings/ strength. I think that he will earn a promotion if all goes well and pitch in the bigs in the 2nd half this year if he proves healthy and back to where he was and will be in the rotation no later than the start of 2025.
I get that perspective but really don't think IMO that he was a major Super 2 manipulation candidate. His 2022 AAA results seemed to look like he made good progress but more time was needed. I'd love to see him hit the ground with solid performance.
Very well written and presented. I see him as a SP, but it would probably serve him well to get opportunities to pitch less innings per game and therefore, less pitches. When he feels able, then maybe he can be stretched out to 3 or 4 innings, and possibly as a Starter in bullpen games.
Constantly im hearing writers talking about using our top prospect talent as multi inning relievers and the lack of baseball knowledge that suggests blows my mind. 1. Relief pitchers are cheap and replaceable, so taking your top talent and devaluing it would be idiotic. 2. We need starting pitching, badly. 3. Starting pitching cannot be bought via free agency anymore, and noone wants to trade it 4. If a player isn't able to get back until mid-season, an innings limit is moot because he's only tossing for a few months 12.starts at 6 innings would be less than 75 innings. There's no way he'd be able to.do more than that. You cant have someone toss 15 games at 2-3 innings and then expect them to be a useful starter the following year, its ridiculous its just impossible to increase the load enough safely. He needs as many healthy innings as possible in 2024 if he's able to be a starter in 2025. You cant look past that.
Usually ignore the 'you don't agree with me so you don't know ball' but oh well, if you are counting on a rookie pitcher, coming off of tommy John, with zero major league experience, to be a key piece in the rotation this season, it's already a failure. If he's not on an innings limit, he'll be on a pitch restriction, like Ashcraft was last year.
We are already talking about someone who has never topped 100 innings during a minor league season, which now it may be another two years before he reaches that, which by then he will be 26. If he can't stay healthy enough to be a starter, which has been the case already, then the best way to get value out of him is as a multi-inning guy, or even a regular reliever. It happens all the time.
You can keep him in the minors all year to build back up, that's fine, and try him as a starter in 2025. That'd work, and honestly I hope that's how they work it.
But if they want to get him in the majors this year, and have him make an impact somehow, it isn't as a starter.
"Someone who has never topped 100 innings during a minor league season."
In 4 minor league seasons before last year's injury, the last healthy season saw a stat line of 24 games (22 starts) and 94 innings. How can this in any way prepare a pitcher to be a starter in MLB? Even 5 IP for 22 starts is 110 IP. Not too terribly long ago, top pitching prospects in the minors would pitch 150-175 and sometimes even close to 200 IP!
It simply is unrealistic to expect success over 25-30 starts at 5-6 IP per start (125-180 IP) in the majors when full season minor league starters pitch less than 100 IP/year. We cry about development and injuries but I have yet to see real evidence to suggest that babying healthy minor league pitchers staves off injury and prepares them for success.
While I agree with your commentary at the end, who gives a crap about 2024? What the pirates always must focus on, is getting the greatest amount of value out of each player, and the most value from a recent top 100 prospect is not turning him into a reliever, it is getting him back up to speed as a starter and then using him in 2025 or trading him. This isnt debatable. We don't need multi innings relievers anymore than we need cruz playing first base, we must ALWAYS optimize value. Optimizing value isn't melting down a gold bar to fill a pothole, it is selling it for enough material to fill 100.potholes
It’s also important to remember that Bob and Ben have chosen not to fund an actual rotation. They’re going to have to improvise, possibly all year, like they did late in 2023. That’ll involve a ton of ever-shifting variables. When you refuse to behave like a major league team, following ideal major league practices with guys like Burrows isn’t possible.
Your last paragraph here is a strong stance, concise and well written. If this is how you feel about burrows in 2024 tell us in your first sentence…provide your justification… then slap your readers again at the end. Don’t save your dope for comments!
Is there an estimated return date for Burrows? I've heard the All-Star break is the target for Brubaker. If Burrows had surgery a month after Bru, is he really not back until mid August? I know each player and surgery can be different but that could also significantly play into the expectations. Before the off-season I thought Brubaker would be back sooner than the All-Star break so hopefully I have these dates wrong.
Every pitcher is 12-14 months so a month difference isn't really relevant. Their Time line overlaps.
I fully expect him to be a spot starter/opener/long man for Pirates after AS break. And if all goes well, he’ll be counted on to be in rotation to open 2025 season.
I'll disagree. I think he picks up where he left off in 2023 before injury. He needs AAA time to prove he is MLB ready. A reasonable scenario is he comes back and builds his innings up starting as a 3 inning opener or regularly scheduled 3 inning relief appearances. By the time he builds up to 5 innings or more and has the level of success needed IMO to merit a promotion it will likely be the end of the year nicely setting himself up to battle for a rotation spot in 2025. That is somewhat ignoring that some pitchers struggle in year one post TJ which would make him even less of a MLB candidate in 2024. Net: if he was not ready for a MLB roster spot to start 2023, not sure how a TJ injury suddenly makes him MLB ready.
If he finishes 2024 with like 40 innings there's no way he could be expected to toss 150 innings in 2025. Regardless of aaa or pittsburgh, he needs to be pitching full outings to get his stamina up for his value as a trade piece or to the pirates as a starter which is what we need from him
I think he was ready at the start of 2023 but he was going to get held for super 2. He will start in AAA as a piggy back guy to build innings/ strength. I think that he will earn a promotion if all goes well and pitch in the bigs in the 2nd half this year if he proves healthy and back to where he was and will be in the rotation no later than the start of 2025.
I get that perspective but really don't think IMO that he was a major Super 2 manipulation candidate. His 2022 AAA results seemed to look like he made good progress but more time was needed. I'd love to see him hit the ground with solid performance.
I’m with Robert. Burrows was in AAA for team control reasons, not because he wasn’t ready for a spot in rotation.