MLB Draft 2024: Bryce Rainer/Duncan Marsten 1/2 punch with first round upside

Two of the better prep pitchers in this year's class also play for the same high school in California.

Having a player who is projected to go in the first round at the high school level can usually make a big difference, Harvard-Westlake has two pitchers who could potentially get taken early in the 2024 draft.

Bryce Rainer has been a player that has been said to have the potential to be a 20-home run hitter in the majors should everything pan out as either a shortstop or even third baseman - yet some scouts like his upside even more as a pitcher, despite not throwing much in high school.

Duncan Marsten wasn’t ranked initially in Baseball America’s Top 100 draft rankings, and not only did he show up in the updated Top 200, but he checked in at 35. He’s not listed on Pipeline’s initial Top 100 list.

Both have shown the stuff on the mound to be potential first-round picks, with Rainer having an added option of hitting.

Rainer on the mound

This article will look exclusively at Rainer pitching despite the ability to hit probably a little safer for him regarding his draft prospectus.

This video was posted a month ago by Prospect Pipeline, an excellent resource on YouTube that I look to a lot to watch some of these players in action. This game appears to be a scrimmage, and with them recently starting their regular season this past weekend, it would check out.

Rainer threw 11 fastballs in this video and averaged 94.7 mph. The pitch showed some arm-side run to it, and although he initially struggled to locate the outer half, he became more pinpoint with it as the game went along.

He topped 96 (twice) and never went below 94 with any of the pitches. Even going back to another video of him pitching, he was consistently hitting 94 and has been 91-96 in what I’ve seen from him so far.

There’s a showing of two different breaking pitches - a low 80s slider and a mid-70s curveball, the latter of which he was able to break in for a couple of called strikes against right-handed hitters.

The change-up was in the 78-80 range, showed some fade to it, but didn’t land it too often.

Duncan Marsten

While he already has a Tommy John on his resume, Marsten could catapult himself into the conversation as the best prep pitcher in this class in a field that doesn’t quite have a clear candidate yet.

He averaged 95.12 mph with his fastball in this video above, including getting a whiff on a pitch that registered at 99 mph. There’s some good late life on the pitch, and he located it well.

The slider got a few chases with it, and showed the ability to throw on both sides of the strike zone. He had a swing and miss for a strike three with a change-up that ran away from the left-handed hitter.

Marsten has a smooth, clean delivery and has a great frame standing at 6’4” and 215 pounds. He’s a bit on the ‘older’ end for a prep player, so that and the TJ surgery could drop him down on a few boards. He will also be a draft eligible sophomore if he goes the college route, all of which will need to be taken into account for any team thinking about selecting him.

Final Analysis

This year’s prep class is a lot more of a toss up heading into the season than in 2023. The fact that so many from the 2025 class reclassified for this upcoming draft speaks to that.

Rainer is a special case because there is talk of him going high both as a hitter and pitcher. He’ll have the arm to play either position on the left side of the dirt, obviously, and the power potential seems to be there, but there is a lot to like on the mound as well.

How his senior year goes will be one of the more interesting things to watch when it comes to the draft.

Marsten has a couple of red flags, the age and already having TJ, but the talent is obviously there and has flashed three above average (at least) pitches. According to Baseball America some scouts are already calling him a ‘slam dunk’ first-round pick this summer.

He will have some leverage heading into it, committed to Wake Forest and being 2026 eligible but he may have some of the best stuff in the prep ranks on the mound.

It can get unfair having one of these players on a high school roster, opposing hitters have to face two potential first round picks in Rainer and Marsten.