32 Comments
User's avatar
Bob Nutting's avatar

Griffin

Chandler

Florentino

Hernandez

Barco

Termarr

Valdez

Cervantes

Harrington

Sanford

Sound about right for a post draft top 10?

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WTM's avatar

Ashcraft and Burrows still qualify, but assuming they drop out, I might go with:

Griffin

Chandler

Florentino

Hernandez

Barco

Termarr

Valdez

Cervantes

Dotel

Kelly

This could change a lot, depending on things like how Valdez and Alfonzo do in AA. In fact, it feels like everything is in flux, mostly in a good way. If Gray gets some time at Bradenton and does reasonably well, you have to consider him.

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agent00's avatar

if termarr wasn't a first round pick, would he even be a top 20 prospect?

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Bob Nutting's avatar

To be very young, left-handed and doing ok in AA goes a long way.

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WTM's avatar

Yeah, you can't overlook his age and the plate discipline. But I can't deny there's a hype element still.

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agent00's avatar

yeah idk. i just don't think he's very good. but i guess part of that is due to the hype and draft position.

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agent00's avatar

i wouldn't have harrington has a top 10 prospect, personally. i'd probably replace him with alfonzo

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Bob Nutting's avatar

I thought about writing Alfonso in that spot.

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Shawn Inlow's avatar

Does our #1 pick place in the top thirty on this site? If so, where?

Asking for a friend.

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Anthony Murphy's avatar

Quick reaction, he's probably 3rd.

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WTM's avatar

I’d see it as a debate between him and Florentino for 3/4.

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Bob Nutting's avatar

with Cervantes hanging back in the Barco range or further back than that, you think?

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WTM's avatar

A bit further.

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jasonr33's avatar

At his age, I'll take it.

It is a wonder that, after so long, we are all able to be optimistic about anything baseball related.

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JRC21's avatar

So the draft experts have all weighed in this morning. McDaniel and Law write overall reviews without giving grades, and tend to see at least some merit in every team’s approach. Callis ranked the top 5 draft classes in terms of amassing talent.

The highlight of the three is Callis ranking the Pirates second behind only the Orioles. He compares Hernandez to Griffin in the sense that the Pirates got arguably the most talented player in the entire draft, this year taking advantage of the unwillingness of teams to go with high school pitchers so high. He also likes Cervantes and Melendez, and says that Carmichael is one of the better catchers in the draft. Finally, he calls Jones a steal, saying that he may have the best power bat in the entire class.

McDaniel and Law don’t have much to add to the info here on the board. McDaniel loves the Pirates willingness to buck the industry and take Hernandez. He has Melendez as a sleeper, and overall praises the Pirates for a balanced approach to their top 10 selections. Law is more cautious on Hernandez. He reiterates that Gray, Iredale, and Jones all have elite exit velocities, but have problems with swing and miss and controlling the strike zone. Law likes the Guzman pick, saying that he really improved his offensive game as the year went on, and implies that he could be a starting catcher in the majors.

The overall point, I think, is that the Pirates have significantly improved their approach to the draft under Justin Horowitz, and this is recognized by the national analysts.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

I’m definitely a fan of the high risk/high reward approach favoured by previous regime. However, I do wish they would apply this line of thinking to trades and FA signings.

For the life of me I don’t get why they swing for the fences in the draft, then follow it up by signing guys like Pham, Heaney, and Frazier in FA, and trading for players like BDLC, IKF, and a litany of high floor/low ceiling depth pieces.

They luck into drafting a statue level player like Skenes and absolutely refuse to take a risk on MLB players who could lift the team to new heights.

It’s a question BC needs to answer if I’m Nutting this October.

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Josh D's avatar

It’s about money. All those conservative decisions in trades and free agency, it’s about money, and that’s why Nutting won’t ask why BC does what he does. If he did, then Nutting would have to also explain why there’s no money to play with?

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NMR's avatar

every friggin rebuild trade Cherington made was high risk/reward. nothing but a bunch of teenagers with tools.

BDLC, Alex Canario, completely boom or bust.

When it comes to payroll you get what you're willing to pay.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

Those aren’t my definition of high reward players.

Thus far BC has not shown he’s willing to deal quality for quality. Who are the best players he’s dealt away? Ortiz and Priester?

He needs to make moves that move the needle more than that.

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Cb's avatar

This deadline is set up for him to make a splash if he's actually capable of doing that. The Keller and Bednar trade chips should bring something good back, not lottery tickets. Heaney, Hayes, IkF, Pham etc...will just get some low level lotto tickets.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Isn't Nutting at least half the reason BC does what he does?

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WTM's avatar

I’m convinced they’re both terrified of taking risks. Outside of the teardown at the start, BC hasn’t made a single significant trade in six years. And Nuttin is afraid to fire an obviously failed GM. It’s not hard to see how BC got the job. They think (if you can call it that) alike.

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Scott Kliesen's avatar

If what you claim is true, and I believe it is, why are they willing to make risky picks in the draft?

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WTM's avatar

Not giving up anything, apart from money that they’ll spend regardless.

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Anthony's avatar

Bingo, loss aversion bias

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Melkel's avatar

Don't forget their ability to take the wait and see approach on almost every decision even when it's clear they are already a day late and a dollar short. They have big bag of cans and a never ending road with a steel toed boot on.

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WTM's avatar

Probably what happened at last year’s deadline. BC was afraid to make a deal, all the decent possibilities got taken, so he went for BDLC. Idiots like that never understand that, often, not making a decision = making a decision.

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Melkel's avatar

Yep

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Shawn Inlow's avatar

Neat. So much nicer to hear than their normal stuff about who we would trade Skenes for etc.

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agent00's avatar

I'm a fan of the Horowitz drafts so far. but it makes you wonder what the hell took them so long to get rid of delicarri

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jasonr33's avatar

They keep every-one/-thing too long, with the exception of bricks.

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StatsCbl's avatar

Great write-up full of fun information. I don't take this for granted at all. Keep up the good work!

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