MLB Draft notebook: Charlie Condon rises, next tier of starting pitchers, Matchup of the week

Charlie Condon stays sching hot, some late first-round pitching options, and Duke and Wake Forest face off this weekend.

There may not be a player on fire in the college ranks more than Charlie Condon. He hit yet another home run on Wednesday, giving him nine on the season, tied for the National lead.

On the season, Condon has batted .531/.631/1.224 and has drawn more walks (14) than he has struck out (8).

While his 274 wRC+ is incredible and second only to Miami’s Daniel Cuvet, it isn’t the most impressive number he’s posted this season, especially when it comes to his draft stock.

There were some swing-and-miss concerns heading into his draft year, which he’s been answering resoundingly - especially against off-speed pitches.

Condon has a .588 average against off-speed pitches, a 2.196 OPS, and a 71.43 hard-hit rate. He has just whiffed 15% of the time.

On the other hand, other prospects that have top-10 potential have struggled a bit against the same pitches Condon has crushed - most notably Travis Bazzana (41% whiff rate), Braden Montgomery (33%), Vance Honeycutt (29%), and Mike Sirota (32%).

The top of the draft is a lot more wide open this year, especially with JJ Wetherholt missing time due to an injury, and while we will get a better idea when SEC play starts, few have put themselves in a position to catapult up the rankings like Condon has.

Drew Beam, Trey Yesavage impress in recent outings

I got a chance to catch both Drew Beam and Trey Yesavage this past weekend and came away overly impressed.

Yesavage was already someone I was planning on keeping a close eye on this season, and he’s living up to the hype. He struck out 11 in eight innings, allowing just two hits and no walks.

You can watch the entire start here.

He topped 97 mph with his fastball and picked up 26 total whiffs that game (with all his pitches). Of pitchers with at least 250 pitches, only Jonathan Santucci and Brody Brecht have a higher whiff rate than Yesavage (44.9%).

I don’t know if he has Gavin Williams (who also attended ECU and went in the first round) upside, but he certainly has the chance to fly up the board this year. His four-pitch mix gives him a solid floor, and with some of the reliever risk at the top of the draft, it only makes Yesavage more interesting to watch going forward.

Beam fits the ‘high-floor, low-ceiling’ college prospect category and had a strong outing last weekend against Bowling Green. He walked one in six innings while allowing five hits and an earned run, picking up nine strikeouts.

Watching his last start, you can certainly see the command that makes him one of the more high-floor starters in this draft. Among pitchers with at least 100 pitches, Beam ranks 16th in strike percentage (72.9%) and was on the money with his fastball most of the night.

There were times when the change-up seemed to creep to the glove side, but he still had a lot of success with it against lefties. He throws it for strikes 79.5% of the time, but when he does extend it, he gets hitters to go after it (56.5% chase rate).

Battle of the lefties

On Friday, we will see two of the best college left-handed pitchers in the 2024 class, Jonathan Santucci and Josh Hartle, as Duke and Wake Forest face off.

The Demon Deacons already have quite a few potential first-round picks, so it’s an excellent test for Santucci, who has been nearly unhittable all season.

Duke’s Friday night starter has a whiff rate of 51.9% this season, tops in college baseball right now, but will face Nick Kurtz and Seaver King - two potential top 10 picks this summer.

Hartle is off to a solid start to the year. He doesn’t get the attention that Chase Burns does, as his stuff doesn’t jump off the page like his teammate, but you can’t argue a 2.04 ERA and 3-0 record with 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings pitched.

Advanced statistics via D1Baseball.com