64 Comments

Lonnie White going to break out this year?

Expand full comment

Lonnie White a triple short of a cycle. Third HR.

Expand full comment

It would be great if he stepped up.

Expand full comment

It would be great if the Pirates choose an approach to the draft this year like they did in 2021. After the first pick (and maybe including the first pick), select high ceiling, over slot (after the first pick) prep players. And maximize investment, including the 5% allowable (without draft penalty) overage. I suspect, however, we will see the more typical selection of low-ceiling, over drafted college pitchers who have demonstrated, after 3 years of college with excellent coaching, that they have little control or command.

Expand full comment

I suspect the FO knows the future is now and tomorrow. They may want to take one of the college position players because these players are easier to scout, have a track record against college pitching and should begin their pro career at a higher level than a HSer.

The Pirates already have a logjam with their pitching prospects. So, I expect them to take a position player at 1.9.

But I've been wrong before!

Expand full comment

A lot depends on other teams and what they do too. If a team or two ahead of them cuts a deal and takes say, Caleb Lomavita, and a very good pitching prospect (Smith or Burns) falls, then…take the talent.

Expand full comment

Absolutely incredible prospect brain to prefer Hank Davis getting his teeth kicked in to Paul Skenes simply due to landing Lonnie White Jr, who hasn't made it out of A-ball.

Particularly ironic since, as you allude, they ended up with those low-ceiling college pitchers after having their draft strategy blown up trying to replicate 2021. They didn't go underslot on so many guys and eat a bunch of money for no reason.

Expand full comment

We all let prospects and our love for them run wild. We end up convincing ourselves that “Hey, maybe if we take Hank under slot, we’ll end up with MLB contributors in Hank, Tony Sol, Bubba and White!” That is highly unlikely, but we believe it anyway somehow. Why do we love the unknown of prospects in baseball? Is it because we think only about the best possible outcomes with unknown prospects?

Expand full comment

Indianapolis looses a no hitter in the 6th inning.

Expand full comment

I hope Montgomery falls.

Expand full comment

I really do to. He's not my favorite but realistic favorite.

Expand full comment

Ercolani looking good

Expand full comment

That 39 strikes out of 62 pitches looks pretty nice.

Expand full comment

When he's finding the zone, that fastball is pretty

Expand full comment

Kurtz Weatherholt Bazzana Condon and Hagen Smith will be gone. My favs of the rest are Brecht and Konner Griffin.

Expand full comment

Hard to know what thread to put MiL stuff in, but . . . .

One good piece of news is that Nick G and Peguero are torching the ball at Indy. I'd far rather have one of them hitting well in 200 ABs in Pgh than in 500 in AAA.

The MiL starters today are interesting, even though none of the top guys are going. One is Lauer, who they're just about certain to need before long. Chen for Altoona and Ercolani for Greensboro. I don't know whether Ercolani will ultimately succeed or not, but he's one of the youngest players in the SAL, which is pretty remarkable for a guy from San Marino.

Expand full comment

Hi WTM! It's Pedro- do you happen to know where Ercolani sits with his fastball? Thanks

Expand full comment

Pedro power?

Expand full comment

Hi Pie :)

Expand full comment

Brings me back to the glory of bucsdugout! Hope you're doing well.

Expand full comment

My guy!

Expand full comment
Apr 11Edited

Hey there! He can be kinda erratic with it. I've seen him hit 97 and I've seen him at 92-93. To the extent he has a norm, probably 94-95. I'm hoping him throwing a lot of strikes today shows he's getting his mechanics more consistent.

It's interesting that there were two guys at Bradenton last year -- Ercolani and Dotel -- who didn't have impressive peripherals and had ups and downs with the velocity, but who seemed to have some real ability. The Pirates seem to think so, as they're both in the Greensboro rotation and both had good first starts with better control than they typically had last year.

Expand full comment

Also wanted to add and I know people will think I'm getting way ahead of things... but things feeling sort of 2013ish to me.

Expand full comment

This is Pedropower? The most reasonably optimistic Bucco fan on the planet who is the patron saint of all Buc boards?

Expand full comment

Haha. Hi Arky!

Expand full comment

Hey Pedro! Hope all is well! I gotta say I’m getting excited about this Bucs group too.

Expand full comment

Thanks! I haven't been this excited about Pirates in probably 8 years.

Expand full comment

Have either Gonzalez or Peguero given us reason to believe the *major league* results would be any different than last year?

Expand full comment

So what you're saying is, until they actually hit in the majors, they shouldn't be brought to the majors.

Expand full comment

I don't know how to guess at whether Peguero is showing he can hit in MLB by hitting in MiLB but for Nick (for me at least) the question is is he hitting non-fastballs?

Expand full comment

I check GameDay. He has been hitting sliders and cutters. His K-rate is low? So...

Expand full comment

Before tonight's game, Gonzales has walked in 8.7% and struck out 15.2% of his ABs. Unless the IL has forgotten Gonzales can't his breaking pitches ans thrown only fastballs to him, I'd say the early results are promising. If he continues to hit like this, then he's likely to get another chance in Pittsburgh.

Expand full comment

Putting the ball on the ground a ton, too. Hope we can get some video soon.

Expand full comment

I heard someone on a podcast, it might have been Murphy, say Gonzales is still struggling with the breaking ball still. His numbers look good but the same struggles. I haven’t heard anything on peguero’s approach though.

Expand full comment

I'll never understand why you get off on acting so dumb.

Expand full comment

Oh, you're in troll mode. Bye.

Expand full comment

Sorry, I'll expand.

Since this is apparently the first season you're following baseball, you should be aware that a week and a half of counting stats from two kids running BABIPs over .500 are not in fact indicative of improvements to flaws that have previously led to their failure at the major league level.

Has Liover Peguero adopted any shred of plate discipline?

Has Nick Gonzales figured out how to handle any form of breaking ball?

Expand full comment

I would love for Kurtz to fall to us but don't think he will. I still think we are in a good position at pick 9 though. In my opinion there are 8 college players that have separated themselves with a couple prep players.

Any of the hitters Condon, Bazzana, Kurtz, Wetherholt, Montgomery and Jac and the pitchers Smith and Burns would be good value at pick 9. The prep player Griffen might have the highest ceiling in the draft and there's still time for someone else to join the top group (ex. Cam Smith, Yesavage, or a prep player). As far as the order they're picked still to much time left to tell.

Expand full comment

Some mock drafts had Kurtz falling to the Pirates, mostly due to his struggles this season. I got my hopes up about that opportunity. Alas, he's morphed into Ted Williams. So...

I'll scream and curse if they take another pitcher. The minor league teams look to be hitting poor this year.

Expand full comment

I have watched a lot of his at bats this year. He was getting pitched around and then the injury.All the while having some bad luck on hard hit balls in play early in the season. He's been lights out lately and the only way he drops is if other teams start pitching around him again in my opinion.

Don't get discouraged if we get Smith or Burns as long as they draft some bats with next couple of picks.

Expand full comment

Who are the least athletic hitters in the group you mentioned? I have a hunch those might be most likely to fall, but I really am only guessing.

Expand full comment

Jac, Kurtz, and to a lesser degree Condon. Jac can pitch as well though lol.

Expand full comment

I’ve listened to a lot of BA podcasts on the draft. Jac, among others, has a wide range of opinions on him.

Expand full comment

I'd agree with that, the biggest concern hitting wise was his swinging at everything. He's calmed that down in the few games I've watched him play. Good sign he's walking more and striking out less.

I see him more as a hitter, he has a good hit tool, just needs to keep advancing his plate discipline.

Expand full comment

I have not followed Kurtz, because I doubt the Pirates will draft him at the 9th slot. The Pirates under Ben Cherrington tend to watch the Cape Cod League very closely, and I would not be surprised if they do that again in 2024 by selecting Cole Mathis, College of Charleston, 1B/RHP, 6th Best Prospect in the CC League last year, with Bazzana, Smith, Bender, Wetherholt,, and King as 1-5.

Right now though, with the troubles Boston is having in their infield, I would see if we can help them and try to pry AA 1B Blaze Jordan away from them.

Expand full comment

Mathis isn't having a great year with the bat and I don't think he's pitching this year.

I wouldn't mind trying to get Jordan though, as long as it isn't an overpay.

Expand full comment

Oi! Tomm-eh! Tommeh Tanks!

Expand full comment

Isn’t the Wake Forest home stadium a band box? Is any of this driven by his home park? (You don’t get into home/road splits).

Expand full comment

It's short down the lines and part way to the power allies but goes out to average from there. Kurtz has a few that just cleared but most are no doubters. His power is real and he isn't a dead pull hitter, he spreads them around.

Expand full comment

Better than Will Craig?

Expand full comment

I want to see Kurtz run the bases before I make any judgement.

Expand full comment

He hasn't had much of chance lately, he's been jogging around them lol.

Expand full comment

Yes lol more like Wilken, without the strikeout issues.

Expand full comment

There’s a lot that can change still, even though we’re more than halfway into the college season. But I think you’re right; it sounds like a tier of 8.

Maybe take Kurtz and Tommy Tanks in the comp round. Get all the 1B.

Expand full comment

Connor Griffin at pick 9 would kind of be a steal if he hits.

Expand full comment

If he hits…kind of a big deal.

Expand full comment

It's the strength of the draft, then take Blake Burke in round 2. I think Burke is the lefty Pete Alonzo lol, probably not as good a glove though.

Expand full comment

Dude sounds like a DH…not that early no thanks.

Expand full comment