Hopefully IKF can be a poor mans Ben Zoberist for the Bucs for a few years. Pleased with the moves to upgrade without losing any pieces of the big league roster.
A friend of mine and former neighbor that is a long time writer at one of the big national outlets texted me today that he and many people in the industry believe a BDLC breakout is coming. I would love it, but I guess I don’t really see it yet. I’m looking forward to seeing him play over the next few weeks.
Hey man me too…there is happy smoke there. Sometimes it is shit but sometimes all it takes is some tweak (insert horrific Haines joke here) to unlock something
One of the best part about trades or call-ups is when a new player ignites their team. Morel 2 homers in 2 days. Jazz gets 2 homers in one game. Jackson Holliday gets a call up today and hits a grand slam and a foul ball that could have easily been called a 3 run homer. The team has played better since Skenes was called up. Tommy Pham big game with the Cardinals today.
I'm both optimistic about the 2024 Pirates and absolutely hate what they did this trade deadline.
-IKF has posted wOBAs of .293, .285, and .286 over the last three years. His expected wOBA so far in 2024 is...you'll never guess....291. Almost literally the exact 3-yr average. His actual production this year has been buoyed by a June heater in which he was more than 100 points over his skis between actual and expected. This is the reverse Adam Frazier-Padres trade with the only positive being they gave up far less in talent to acquire IKF than the Padres did to acquire Frazier.
-In Bryan De La Cruz, they somehow managed to find a guy whose expected wOBA is *lower* than Edward Oliveras and also astonishingly is not a defensive improvement. Calling this an upgrade is damning with the faintest of possible praise. I'll revise my position mildly upward if they actually go out and find a good baseball player for the outfield this winter and don't use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor for the next several seasons.
-Nick Yorke is interesting, I like that one, but probably doesn't factor into actually taking a run at this year.
They're acting like they'll have five more years of healthy and elite production from Skenes, Keller, and Jones.
I was listening to an Athletic podcast on the trade deadline talking about how a competitive windows can be astonishingly short. When a teams window “opens” people assume they have 5-7 years. In reality, it might 2-3. They used the White Sox as a cautionary tale.
I get it. I wanted Arozarena as well. They still need an OF impact bat +. These trades can't be the final product. They have to be part of building a championship caliber team. Imo, this organization got caught flat-footed, because they did not expect Jones and Skenes to have this kind of success as rookies. I guess they also expected Davis and Suwinski to take another step forward. The Pirates have a guy who potentially could become one of the greatest pitchers of all time, and a strong supporting cast of impact pitchers to go with him. The clock has started. It will be disgraceful if they don't make a serious attempt to upgrade this team and go for a championship.
I think you're absolutely right about getting caught flat-footed.
Remember back to that 2015 Cubs team. The young core arrived a year earlier than expected, and they were able to get within a game of the World Series by proactively adding Fowler, Montero, Lester, and Hammel in the offseason.
Cherington stuck to The Plan last winter and now looks to waste a potentially similar opportunity. We'll see.
How much do they truly believe in their pitching depth? They have potentially three or four prospects that could be pitching at the MLB level next season. I know it sounds crazy, but over the winter they should see what Mitch Keller would bring in return. He's proven. He's a horse. He's under control at a reasonable cost. They should be able to get impact offensive talent in return, then use their prospect depth to replace him. It should at least be a consideration.
The two ways you describe Mitch is exactly why I would prefer he not be the traded option. I fully trust 2 starters going in to 2024 and hopefully (Jones) can trust a third. I don't think you mess with that. All the other depth options (Burrows, Ashcraft, Harrington, Chandler, Barco-furher away) may struggle some in AAA, have MLB growing pains (exactly like Keller) and not really help in 2025 but all in varying degrees would be good to very significant parts in getting a bat. Ortiz and Falter are of course in the picture as well but until I see 2 more months (particularly Ortiz) I won't count on them fully. Net: if you want to compete in 2025 - we do - then I think you need to at a minimum for now keep your proven MLB positive contributors. Flash forward to winter 2025 and if things go well Mitch (and maybe others) may feel more available IMO.
"I'll revise my position mildly upward if they actually go out and find a good baseball player for the outfield this winter and don't use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor for the next several seasons." I hate to state assumptions as fact here but...having watched Cherington for 5 years now I find it awfully difficult to expect him not to use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor through at least 2025. Is that crazy?
I look at it this way. They gave up nothing to get these guys. I would rather see De La Cruz and IFK in the lineup than Tiolo, Suckwinski and Taylor. Don't mind getting rid of Priester but not excited about Yorke. He's a minor leaguer.
I really hope (hate to use that word) that these moves weren't made so they can ignore adding to the team with some one(s) moderately above average this winter. There has to be some FA's that want to play with those three pitchers and whoever is in the next wave. Not Pat Meares or Ronny Cedeno types. Will be an interesting end to the season as well as offseason. I'm invested.
I don't recommend this (not a good story), but when you scan the free agent 1B and outfielders next year they fall IMO into some simple categories: Dream on (Soto, Alonso), likely a pipe dream (Bellinger, Ozuna - team option), financially a reach but highly unlikely: (Profar - one hit wonder?, Walker, Santander), middling but aren't exciting or just flotsam. If sure feels like they will be needing to work and ace the trade market. So, unfortunately I think it will take much more than selling some big supply of free agents to want to play in Pittsburgh.
Big reason I leave this trade deadline with such disappointment. Both Arozarena and Chisolm were better options than anything realistically to come in FA.
I looked. I shouldn't have but did. Looks like trade it is then. Every once in a while I think of picking up Santander in fantasy baseball. Can't say I know much about his fielding though.
He's the one I also looked at because he seems solid but not sexy. So.. what will the cost be? Unfortunately without doing much research, with the limited list of options it sure feels like somebody will overwhelm (out price the Pirates) him with dollars or years. I alway hear 'well Pirates should be able to afford them' and at some level I agree it sure would seem like big risk to overpay for a player like him. What is harder to do is figure out who could be available on the trade market, it may not be any prettier.
Probably in a couple of ways. They went for low-upside college guys last year in Jebb and Forrester, and that really wasn't going anywhere. The bust risk with all prep draftees is high, but I'm happier with this approach.
At least in my reading of the tea leaves, the Jebb and Forrester picks were likely influenced by their interest in saving half a million bucks in pool space to then turn around and use on an overslot HS kid.
Get sniped on that overslot pick and you now are stuck with mid college dudes and no upside to spend the savings on.
This year they seemed to take the HS kids in roughly the slots they'd eventually end up getting if drafted later and then given overslot deal. Gets right to the point.
I also don't mind them not signing later round backup plans and I actually think that is a good strategy (I assume others do it). If any of the over slot players didn't sign I am assuming the amount was somewhere in the ballpark of what it would have taken to sign the 20th pick or another possible late round overslot. What do they lose by not signing the 20th pick or other possible reaches? Well, with roster limits etc. and the alternative of signing another 150K or less college player who is highly likely to never sniff Pittsburgh (let alone Indy) I propose they are really not losing anything.
Agree.. no matter how we slice and dice what Bob should spend, the reality will always be the Pittsburgh market can't just fix (maybe one) a problem by spending and making the wrong huge investment is a dagger. They have to sign and develop. I'll propose we don't grade how that has gone over time.
Great recap Anthony. I have a question about exit velocity. You mentioned the prospect from Baltimore put some loft on the ball. You also mentioned his VR maybe it's a little bit lower. If a player has more of an upward type swing that gives him more loft, could that affect EV?
Great breakdown AM! This deadline has really grown on me and you laid it all out very well. Just hoping they see something in beeks, pitch mix or location or whatever that they feel can get just a little bit more out of him
Hopefully IKF can be a poor mans Ben Zoberist for the Bucs for a few years. Pleased with the moves to upgrade without losing any pieces of the big league roster.
A friend of mine and former neighbor that is a long time writer at one of the big national outlets texted me today that he and many people in the industry believe a BDLC breakout is coming. I would love it, but I guess I don’t really see it yet. I’m looking forward to seeing him play over the next few weeks.
I wish xstats saw something that confirmed that take: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-de-la-cruz-650559?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Whole lotta blue on there. xslug about the only ray of sunshine.
Hey man me too…there is happy smoke there. Sometimes it is shit but sometimes all it takes is some tweak (insert horrific Haines joke here) to unlock something
One of the best part about trades or call-ups is when a new player ignites their team. Morel 2 homers in 2 days. Jazz gets 2 homers in one game. Jackson Holliday gets a call up today and hits a grand slam and a foul ball that could have easily been called a 3 run homer. The team has played better since Skenes was called up. Tommy Pham big game with the Cardinals today.
I'm both optimistic about the 2024 Pirates and absolutely hate what they did this trade deadline.
-IKF has posted wOBAs of .293, .285, and .286 over the last three years. His expected wOBA so far in 2024 is...you'll never guess....291. Almost literally the exact 3-yr average. His actual production this year has been buoyed by a June heater in which he was more than 100 points over his skis between actual and expected. This is the reverse Adam Frazier-Padres trade with the only positive being they gave up far less in talent to acquire IKF than the Padres did to acquire Frazier.
-In Bryan De La Cruz, they somehow managed to find a guy whose expected wOBA is *lower* than Edward Oliveras and also astonishingly is not a defensive improvement. Calling this an upgrade is damning with the faintest of possible praise. I'll revise my position mildly upward if they actually go out and find a good baseball player for the outfield this winter and don't use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor for the next several seasons.
-Nick Yorke is interesting, I like that one, but probably doesn't factor into actually taking a run at this year.
They're acting like they'll have five more years of healthy and elite production from Skenes, Keller, and Jones.
I was listening to an Athletic podcast on the trade deadline talking about how a competitive windows can be astonishingly short. When a teams window “opens” people assume they have 5-7 years. In reality, it might 2-3. They used the White Sox as a cautionary tale.
I get it. I wanted Arozarena as well. They still need an OF impact bat +. These trades can't be the final product. They have to be part of building a championship caliber team. Imo, this organization got caught flat-footed, because they did not expect Jones and Skenes to have this kind of success as rookies. I guess they also expected Davis and Suwinski to take another step forward. The Pirates have a guy who potentially could become one of the greatest pitchers of all time, and a strong supporting cast of impact pitchers to go with him. The clock has started. It will be disgraceful if they don't make a serious attempt to upgrade this team and go for a championship.
I think you're absolutely right about getting caught flat-footed.
Remember back to that 2015 Cubs team. The young core arrived a year earlier than expected, and they were able to get within a game of the World Series by proactively adding Fowler, Montero, Lester, and Hammel in the offseason.
Cherington stuck to The Plan last winter and now looks to waste a potentially similar opportunity. We'll see.
Stuck to The Plan, or Nickels wouldn’t cough up and/or green light agreeing to opt-outs in player contracts?
When a front office has to convene a “come to Jesus meeting” with their owner in order to sign fucking Michael A. Taylor, well.
Probably didn't think their starting 3b and 3rd highest paid longterm player would be the worst hitter in all of baseball against RHP either.
How much do they truly believe in their pitching depth? They have potentially three or four prospects that could be pitching at the MLB level next season. I know it sounds crazy, but over the winter they should see what Mitch Keller would bring in return. He's proven. He's a horse. He's under control at a reasonable cost. They should be able to get impact offensive talent in return, then use their prospect depth to replace him. It should at least be a consideration.
The two ways you describe Mitch is exactly why I would prefer he not be the traded option. I fully trust 2 starters going in to 2024 and hopefully (Jones) can trust a third. I don't think you mess with that. All the other depth options (Burrows, Ashcraft, Harrington, Chandler, Barco-furher away) may struggle some in AAA, have MLB growing pains (exactly like Keller) and not really help in 2025 but all in varying degrees would be good to very significant parts in getting a bat. Ortiz and Falter are of course in the picture as well but until I see 2 more months (particularly Ortiz) I won't count on them fully. Net: if you want to compete in 2025 - we do - then I think you need to at a minimum for now keep your proven MLB positive contributors. Flash forward to winter 2025 and if things go well Mitch (and maybe others) may feel more available IMO.
Not crazy at all when you start thinking about upcoming arbitration for Cruz, Skenes, and Jones.
They're not gonna have money for those three *and* Keller+Reynolds+Hayes.
"I'll revise my position mildly upward if they actually go out and find a good baseball player for the outfield this winter and don't use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor for the next several seasons." I hate to state assumptions as fact here but...having watched Cherington for 5 years now I find it awfully difficult to expect him not to use BDLC's years of control as a golden anchor through at least 2025. Is that crazy?
If that's crazy then it's a learned insanity based on just about everything we've seen Cherington do and Huntington before him.
I thought we might all be inmates in the same asylum to some degree
I'll visit ... well, maybe send a card.
One of us...one of us...
Cake with a file in it!
I look at it this way. They gave up nothing to get these guys. I would rather see De La Cruz and IFK in the lineup than Tiolo, Suckwinski and Taylor. Don't mind getting rid of Priester but not excited about Yorke. He's a minor leaguer.
Completely agreed, damning with the faintest of praise.
I look at it as Priester and McAdoo for IKF and Yorke.
Agree. Especially the BDLC part.
I really hope (hate to use that word) that these moves weren't made so they can ignore adding to the team with some one(s) moderately above average this winter. There has to be some FA's that want to play with those three pitchers and whoever is in the next wave. Not Pat Meares or Ronny Cedeno types. Will be an interesting end to the season as well as offseason. I'm invested.
I don't recommend this (not a good story), but when you scan the free agent 1B and outfielders next year they fall IMO into some simple categories: Dream on (Soto, Alonso), likely a pipe dream (Bellinger, Ozuna - team option), financially a reach but highly unlikely: (Profar - one hit wonder?, Walker, Santander), middling but aren't exciting or just flotsam. If sure feels like they will be needing to work and ace the trade market. So, unfortunately I think it will take much more than selling some big supply of free agents to want to play in Pittsburgh.
Big reason I leave this trade deadline with such disappointment. Both Arozarena and Chisolm were better options than anything realistically to come in FA.
Arozarena was my big disappointment. My fear with Jazz is that while thriving in New York, the opposite may have happened in Pittsburgh.
Yankmee Stadium is a bandbox. Alika Williams could hit ten dingers there.
I looked. I shouldn't have but did. Looks like trade it is then. Every once in a while I think of picking up Santander in fantasy baseball. Can't say I know much about his fielding though.
He's the one I also looked at because he seems solid but not sexy. So.. what will the cost be? Unfortunately without doing much research, with the limited list of options it sure feels like somebody will overwhelm (out price the Pirates) him with dollars or years. I alway hear 'well Pirates should be able to afford them' and at some level I agree it sure would seem like big risk to overpay for a player like him. What is harder to do is figure out who could be available on the trade market, it may not be any prettier.
Drafting and signing multiple prep guys can be tricky. They took four early and got all of them done.
Lesson learned from 2023.
Probably in a couple of ways. They went for low-upside college guys last year in Jebb and Forrester, and that really wasn't going anywhere. The bust risk with all prep draftees is high, but I'm happier with this approach.
Bingo.
At least in my reading of the tea leaves, the Jebb and Forrester picks were likely influenced by their interest in saving half a million bucks in pool space to then turn around and use on an overslot HS kid.
Get sniped on that overslot pick and you now are stuck with mid college dudes and no upside to spend the savings on.
This year they seemed to take the HS kids in roughly the slots they'd eventually end up getting if drafted later and then given overslot deal. Gets right to the point.
Yep yep yep.
I also don't mind them not signing later round backup plans and I actually think that is a good strategy (I assume others do it). If any of the over slot players didn't sign I am assuming the amount was somewhere in the ballpark of what it would have taken to sign the 20th pick or another possible late round overslot. What do they lose by not signing the 20th pick or other possible reaches? Well, with roster limits etc. and the alternative of signing another 150K or less college player who is highly likely to never sniff Pittsburgh (let alone Indy) I propose they are really not losing anything.
This really points to the desperate need to get more out of LatAm. The draft alone just can't do it.
Agree.. no matter how we slice and dice what Bob should spend, the reality will always be the Pittsburgh market can't just fix (maybe one) a problem by spending and making the wrong huge investment is a dagger. They have to sign and develop. I'll propose we don't grade how that has gone over time.
Good stuff, Murph!
Great recap Anthony. I have a question about exit velocity. You mentioned the prospect from Baltimore put some loft on the ball. You also mentioned his VR maybe it's a little bit lower. If a player has more of an upward type swing that gives him more loft, could that affect EV?
Enjoyed the breakdown. I am liking the Yorke trade more and more. Probably due to not having much faith in Priester moving along.
Thanks for the informed recap. I think they did well and believe Yorke will be a starter as early as next year.
1st rounder signed.
Yay! Stumpf reporting the bonus is $6,532,025, a little over $300k more than the slot.
still have around 200k to use, yes?
I think Ethan said they have about $30K
So they can offer one of the late round guys $180K
Or two of them $165K
even with the 5% overage?
thought I saw somewhere the pirates had around 500k before griffin signed
Seen several different #s now, but Ethan's always the final word to me.
Good, his numbers are better than mine. I thought they had a little over 10,000 up to 20,000.
I think they are at the limit, even with the 5% overage without losing a pick. I'm not totally sure though.
Great recap, Murph.
Great breakdown AM! This deadline has really grown on me and you laid it all out very well. Just hoping they see something in beeks, pitch mix or location or whatever that they feel can get just a little bit more out of him