I hope this prediction does not come true, but given the potentially useful guys in the Pirates price range are disappearing: Canha, Corbin, and Kimbrell for $5m sounds like a BC deal.
I guess even $5MM for a player who just put up 2 WAR is too rich for Nutting's taste. Or maybe it's too soon for Ben after the money he wasted on Tellez.
More likely, the Pirates weren't going to outbid the D'backs and Grichuk preferred to go back to where he had success.
Wonder what took so long for Grichuk to re-sign with the club he played for last year. I have a feeling that if there was true interest in him by the Bucs, we may see a trade or backup/alternate signing here shortly.
MLBTR has a post up about which NL Central team is winning the offseason. I voted Reds because I couldn't stand the thought of voting Cubs. The Pirates are currently last, which seems unfair because acquiring Horwitz alone should have them above the Cardinals. In any case, a nice summary of what each team has done.
Alika probably looks a lot like the risk in Wyatt Sanford. Sometimes these dudes just don't physically develop enough to punch their way into big league starter roles.
Hoping Sanford shows up to spring training 10 to 20 pounds of good weight heavier than Alika's 180lbs. That would make me feel better for his potential pop. His on base abilities will determine his offensive ceiling but it sure would be nice to have a defensive wiz that could slug at least .450.
And even if he only ended up a .100-.120 ISO guy, I think seeing exit velos in the 86mph avg range will tell us lot about his hit tool. The Newmans and Robles underwhelm their best offensive tool because they just don't hit the ball hard enough for big league play.
In one of the scouting reports, they mentioned his ability to draw walks and line balls gap to gap. A .350 OBA with a .450 slugging with plus defense at short is an occasional all star. Right there with you on the Newman and Robles, neither took enough walks to offset their pool noodle bats.
It's either they didn't draw enough walks or pitchers weren't afraid to come right at 'em. Hard to take a walk when the pitcher throws nothing but strikes at you.
Not so sure about Robles, but I've watched Newman swing at a ton of pitches out of the zone, resulting in weak contact. He'd of probably been a hell of a cricket player lol.
A thought experiment I was having with myself after listening to some NS9: say we found a way to extend skenes (podcast said 7/130, not sure if I agree that’s realistic or not), how would your thoughts on the offseason change?
Would I think Bob is a less shitty owner/the offseason is better if that’s where a chunk of the payroll goes this year? Some ways yes but also someways no because I’d love to lock him up for longer but it doesn’t make us any more competitive this year. What think you?
Disclaimer: I know there’s a better chance I track down all of bmac’s sources than Paul extending here, but I thought it was fun to think about
I think they should extend him with a contract around $75MM over five years (assuming arb values of something like 16, 24, 32) and then two team options for absurd amounts like $55MM per year (which matches Soto's AAV), or even $60MM per year.
Would Nutting ever pay for those team options? Doubtful, but maybe with that asteroid heading for Earth, he'll figure why not? Or he'll sell the team by then. More likely, they'll trade him to the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees who could hardly care less about paying $60MM per year and we'll get a decent return.
I would love it if they extended him, but I think the Pirates were serious they would have locked him up when the chances were greater..... meaning before they brought him up.
Would the Dodgers let that happen? He's a SoCal kid who is destined to be a Dodger but hopefully after another 6-7 years with the Pirates and not just 5.
Don't think it will happen, they need to add around him first then "maybe" he would consider a short extension.
Without adding around him, the only reason for him to sign an extention is insurance incase of injury and long-term financial security (don't think that's much of a factor, he already banked $10mil plus less than 2 years out of college).
I don't see an extension with Skenes. Probably not good for either side. Personally, I think the best outcome is that he is here for the next 6 years and getting into the playoffs and see what happens. I wouldn't trade him at any point and just collect the pick from the QO. These types of trades rarely work out and you're not getting a Paul Skenes in return.
The issue is going to be his arb years, I think he has 4...they're just not going to pay it.
Skenes only has 5 years left on his contract, 2 more pre arbitration with 3 arbitration years to follow. He got a full year of service so no super 2 or extra year of control.
The point is to add players AROUND the free years of Paul Skenes-type talent. There's no chance in hell they're gonna push budget in his extension years to do it then. So no, I'm not terribly thrilled about watching Paul Skenes on *more* shitty teams.
Agree. Reminds me, and I'm only one dude, of when a QB gets drafted and they have their lower salary. Teams have x amount of years to build around them when they are cheap. Kind of like the Russell Wilson this year. But for multiple and they are better than him.
Then the QB signs the huge deal and a lot of the roster is fillers. Ain't many Mahomes available. Hope that made sense.
That’s where I fell, which is why I surprised myself. I love having him around but I will be much more frustrated which him pitch on teams winning 75 games a year
Alika's profile: 26 year old former first round pick, light hitting middle infielder with good glove with some positives hitting at the AAA level. Sound like anyone we know? Sound like EVERYONE we know? If I was a math guy, I'd invent the Alika scale to rate potential DFA claimants.
Hey Fred, you still working on that buzz? Cause I like you thought process there. And booze kills brain cells. The weakest ones. That's why everything is smarter when you are throwing them back. Survival of the fittest.
Alika's profile is the illustrative example of why teams are correct to value exit velo and launch angle and everything we claim to hate. It's the hitter version of late-career Maddux.
Sure, you don't NEED velo if you have 80-grade command and multiple plus secondaries...but developing those is super super hard!
Sure, you don't NEED power if you have an 80-grade hit tool like Luis Arraez but that again, super suuuuuper hard!
Their BP is trash, projected to be worse than replacement. Lineup isn't great either other than a couple of spots. Combine that with regression to the mean for EDLC and this is what you get.
Added Singer and full season of Lowder to replace Ashcraft and Montas who both had 5+ ERA's in 34 combined starts, and they're going to give up 100+ more runs? Even considering Abbott regressing from sub 4 ERA that doesn't track.
WRT the Dodgers, ESPN had a fun little story last week about whether their roster consists of two playoff teams. With their split, both teams fell a bit short with 78 wins each with each making the playoffs about 19% of the time in their simulations.
I agree with you on every prediction except that I think the Brewers find a way to have a winning record. Chourio was amazing in the second half and postseason, and so many of their players are around their prime years. Plus with (arguably) the best farm system in the NL Central, they can trade to fill holes (of course PECOTA can't account for that).
For the Pirates, if they stay healthy I think we'll be over 75 and should be around .500. But health is a big if and shouldn't we be in a better position than hoping for a .500 season in year 6? I still expect a big enough move(s) that projection systems like PECOTA will have us around 79 wins and we can hope for something in the mid-80s.
Every season seems like Season 1 and we will never get to the point where we will be around the mid-point of team spending. Nutting is very content with owning a Team with a Salary Level that will always be around #25 of 30 teams. No regard for the level of talent or the ability to do much better with just some spending on the types of players that get you over the hump. Horwitz was a good get, but more help in the lineup was/is needed.
Not much to write about this AM except the placement projections which have the Pirates ahead of the Reds, but nobody else. It's not hard to understand this because the Pirates are just about always in this predicament, and have not made the number of add's in the off-season that could have had them higher in the projections. Of course, two perennial also-rans who almost always get big off-season headlines - the Padres and Mariners, have done even less than the Pirates.
SD will be a SP short for 2025 (Joe Musgrove TJ) and the Mariners could be a team looking for IF's. We have a few who I would term as excess for the Pirates who could fit well in Seattle - they may just go cheap and claim Alika Williams?
Padres are feeling the effects of trying to buy a championship. No financial wiggle room to add who they need to compete with Dodgers.
As for Seattle, they have a number of highly rated young bats coming soon. They could be exercising patience for maybe the first time since Trader Jerry became GM.
The re-signing of Jorge Polanco for $7+ mil is hard to understand. Just a .213 BA in 2024 with a 9.89/29.21 BB/K%, and not a very strong defender at 2B. And, they are now talking about him at 3B this year? Obviously, Dipoto did not have authorization to pursue a better quality of player.
Preller has his faults, but I think he’s pretty versatile and even if he has to offload some guys in an attempt to reload, he’ll keep them competitive.
return of Conner Joe sounds like the most probable turn of events, no?
I hope this prediction does not come true, but given the potentially useful guys in the Pirates price range are disappearing: Canha, Corbin, and Kimbrell for $5m sounds like a BC deal.
Vince Velasquez to Cleveland on a minor league deal.
D'backs re-sign Grichuk for 1/5.
Cherington still sleeping.
I guess even $5MM for a player who just put up 2 WAR is too rich for Nutting's taste. Or maybe it's too soon for Ben after the money he wasted on Tellez.
More likely, the Pirates weren't going to outbid the D'backs and Grichuk preferred to go back to where he had success.
Wonder what took so long for Grichuk to re-sign with the club he played for last year. I have a feeling that if there was true interest in him by the Bucs, we may see a trade or backup/alternate signing here shortly.
seems like years ago that we were mildly optimistic at non-tendering connor joe.
Now we realize, Joe was just over the budget, BC probably getting excited that his price might be a fit, got his fingers crossed lol.
MLBTR has a post up about which NL Central team is winning the offseason. I voted Reds because I couldn't stand the thought of voting Cubs. The Pirates are currently last, which seems unfair because acquiring Horwitz alone should have them above the Cardinals. In any case, a nice summary of what each team has done.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/poll-whos-winning-the-offseason-in-the-nl-central.html
Alika probably looks a lot like the risk in Wyatt Sanford. Sometimes these dudes just don't physically develop enough to punch their way into big league starter roles.
Hoping Sanford shows up to spring training 10 to 20 pounds of good weight heavier than Alika's 180lbs. That would make me feel better for his potential pop. His on base abilities will determine his offensive ceiling but it sure would be nice to have a defensive wiz that could slug at least .450.
If they don’t do it damn near immediately, the odds are they’re a hardgainer and likely never will.
Sanford was able to put on 10 to 15 pounds in the off-season between his junior and senior season in high school.
I think I saw or read where he has put on more weight this off-season and is around 190lbs +/- but I'm not sure. Very true about hardgainer's.
Amen, that would be huge.
And even if he only ended up a .100-.120 ISO guy, I think seeing exit velos in the 86mph avg range will tell us lot about his hit tool. The Newmans and Robles underwhelm their best offensive tool because they just don't hit the ball hard enough for big league play.
In one of the scouting reports, they mentioned his ability to draw walks and line balls gap to gap. A .350 OBA with a .450 slugging with plus defense at short is an occasional all star. Right there with you on the Newman and Robles, neither took enough walks to offset their pool noodle bats.
Only 5 full-time shortstops in the game put up an .800 OPS, we would be absolutely tickled with that.
It's either they didn't draw enough walks or pitchers weren't afraid to come right at 'em. Hard to take a walk when the pitcher throws nothing but strikes at you.
Not so sure about Robles, but I've watched Newman swing at a ton of pitches out of the zone, resulting in weak contact. He'd of probably been a hell of a cricket player lol.
Probably a bit of both.
A thought experiment I was having with myself after listening to some NS9: say we found a way to extend skenes (podcast said 7/130, not sure if I agree that’s realistic or not), how would your thoughts on the offseason change?
Would I think Bob is a less shitty owner/the offseason is better if that’s where a chunk of the payroll goes this year? Some ways yes but also someways no because I’d love to lock him up for longer but it doesn’t make us any more competitive this year. What think you?
Disclaimer: I know there’s a better chance I track down all of bmac’s sources than Paul extending here, but I thought it was fun to think about
I think they should extend him with a contract around $75MM over five years (assuming arb values of something like 16, 24, 32) and then two team options for absurd amounts like $55MM per year (which matches Soto's AAV), or even $60MM per year.
Would Nutting ever pay for those team options? Doubtful, but maybe with that asteroid heading for Earth, he'll figure why not? Or he'll sell the team by then. More likely, they'll trade him to the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees who could hardly care less about paying $60MM per year and we'll get a decent return.
They might get a slight discount on that $75MM to cover arb to balance the risk.
I would love it if they extended him, but I think the Pirates were serious they would have locked him up when the chances were greater..... meaning before they brought him up.
sources say skenes will wear pinstripes before we know it
Would the Dodgers let that happen? He's a SoCal kid who is destined to be a Dodger but hopefully after another 6-7 years with the Pirates and not just 5.
The Angels will empty the bank for him, still might not be enough to beat out the Dodgers.
God I hope not
Don't think it will happen, they need to add around him first then "maybe" he would consider a short extension.
Without adding around him, the only reason for him to sign an extention is insurance incase of injury and long-term financial security (don't think that's much of a factor, he already banked $10mil plus less than 2 years out of college).
I don't see an extension with Skenes. Probably not good for either side. Personally, I think the best outcome is that he is here for the next 6 years and getting into the playoffs and see what happens. I wouldn't trade him at any point and just collect the pick from the QO. These types of trades rarely work out and you're not getting a Paul Skenes in return.
The issue is going to be his arb years, I think he has 4...they're just not going to pay it.
Skenes only has 5 years left on his contract, 2 more pre arbitration with 3 arbitration years to follow. He got a full year of service so no super 2 or extra year of control.
Ride out the next 5 years.
I absolutely hate this idea, to be honest.
The point is to add players AROUND the free years of Paul Skenes-type talent. There's no chance in hell they're gonna push budget in his extension years to do it then. So no, I'm not terribly thrilled about watching Paul Skenes on *more* shitty teams.
Let’s see…invest around a once in a generation talent, or continue to invest in his stock portfolio?
You’re joking right?
Agree. Reminds me, and I'm only one dude, of when a QB gets drafted and they have their lower salary. Teams have x amount of years to build around them when they are cheap. Kind of like the Russell Wilson this year. But for multiple and they are better than him.
Then the QB signs the huge deal and a lot of the roster is fillers. Ain't many Mahomes available. Hope that made sense.
At best, you'd be doing a Tampa by extending the guy through years you never actually plan to pay but use as trade value for a better return.
That’s where I fell, which is why I surprised myself. I love having him around but I will be much more frustrated which him pitch on teams winning 75 games a year
Pirates' playoff odds increase by 10% if they sign Bregman.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bregging-the-question/
Baby steps.....keep strengthening the 40-man. Next up to trim the jetsam is Valdez and the $100K down the proverbial toilet DeGues.
Alika's profile: 26 year old former first round pick, light hitting middle infielder with good glove with some positives hitting at the AAA level. Sound like anyone we know? Sound like EVERYONE we know? If I was a math guy, I'd invent the Alika scale to rate potential DFA claimants.
Hey Fred, you still working on that buzz? Cause I like you thought process there. And booze kills brain cells. The weakest ones. That's why everything is smarter when you are throwing them back. Survival of the fittest.
Cheers.
Alika's profile is the illustrative example of why teams are correct to value exit velo and launch angle and everything we claim to hate. It's the hitter version of late-career Maddux.
Sure, you don't NEED velo if you have 80-grade command and multiple plus secondaries...but developing those is super super hard!
Sure, you don't NEED power if you have an 80-grade hit tool like Luis Arraez but that again, super suuuuuper hard!
Cubs under 90
Brewers over 80
Cards under 79
Pirates over 75
Reds way over 73
Dodgers way, way over 103
Excited to make my annual $10 Buccos winning the WS bet!
The Reds projection is a head scratcher. Projecting their pitching staff to give up 100+ more runs than they did in 2024?
Their BP is trash, projected to be worse than replacement. Lineup isn't great either other than a couple of spots. Combine that with regression to the mean for EDLC and this is what you get.
Added Singer and full season of Lowder to replace Ashcraft and Montas who both had 5+ ERA's in 34 combined starts, and they're going to give up 100+ more runs? Even considering Abbott regressing from sub 4 ERA that doesn't track.
Not the full reason, but I know eno projected singer to give up 7-10 more homers than last year based off the ballpark. Thats a pretty big swing
Lets just hope all those extra homers, and then some, come from Bucco bats lol
Billy Cook is going to hit 6 of them
Singer and Lowder are only projected for 1.3 WAR each. BPs that are projected to be worse than replacement tend to give up a ton of runs.
I mean, if you think their bullpen is going to be 2024 White Sox level, sure
I'm just going with the projections.
WRT the Dodgers, ESPN had a fun little story last week about whether their roster consists of two playoff teams. With their split, both teams fell a bit short with 78 wins each with each making the playoffs about 19% of the time in their simulations.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43548838/2025-los-angeles-dodgers-superteam-two-playoff-teams-one
I agree with you on every prediction except that I think the Brewers find a way to have a winning record. Chourio was amazing in the second half and postseason, and so many of their players are around their prime years. Plus with (arguably) the best farm system in the NL Central, they can trade to fill holes (of course PECOTA can't account for that).
For the Pirates, if they stay healthy I think we'll be over 75 and should be around .500. But health is a big if and shouldn't we be in a better position than hoping for a .500 season in year 6? I still expect a big enough move(s) that projection systems like PECOTA will have us around 79 wins and we can hope for something in the mid-80s.
It looks like Zips-based projections will have them sniffing .500 already, but I have no arguments over PECOTA.
Every season seems like Season 1 and we will never get to the point where we will be around the mid-point of team spending. Nutting is very content with owning a Team with a Salary Level that will always be around #25 of 30 teams. No regard for the level of talent or the ability to do much better with just some spending on the types of players that get you over the hump. Horwitz was a good get, but more help in the lineup was/is needed.
Not much to write about this AM except the placement projections which have the Pirates ahead of the Reds, but nobody else. It's not hard to understand this because the Pirates are just about always in this predicament, and have not made the number of add's in the off-season that could have had them higher in the projections. Of course, two perennial also-rans who almost always get big off-season headlines - the Padres and Mariners, have done even less than the Pirates.
SD will be a SP short for 2025 (Joe Musgrove TJ) and the Mariners could be a team looking for IF's. We have a few who I would term as excess for the Pirates who could fit well in Seattle - they may just go cheap and claim Alika Williams?
Padres are feeling the effects of trying to buy a championship. No financial wiggle room to add who they need to compete with Dodgers.
As for Seattle, they have a number of highly rated young bats coming soon. They could be exercising patience for maybe the first time since Trader Jerry became GM.
The re-signing of Jorge Polanco for $7+ mil is hard to understand. Just a .213 BA in 2024 with a 9.89/29.21 BB/K%, and not a very strong defender at 2B. And, they are now talking about him at 3B this year? Obviously, Dipoto did not have authorization to pursue a better quality of player.
I don’t fault the Padres for taking the route they did though. They tried to win. More than I can say for this organization.
And it doesn't sound like Preller is willing to stop trying:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/a-j-preller-padres-plan-to-add-a-bat-or-two-an-arm-or-two.html
They're not going to beat out the Dodgers over 162 games, but anything can happen in a 5 or 7 game series.
Preller has his faults, but I think he’s pretty versatile and even if he has to offload some guys in an attempt to reload, he’ll keep them competitive.
Good point. Was thinking who could beat the dodgers. But wild things happen in wild card series.
Like the 1960 World Series, and Orioles fans might even cite the 1971 WS with their 4 20-game winners :)