Hauser traded to Mets. This is a head-scratcher, why would Brewers not want him as an arb player at about $5.7M? Are the Brewers really trying to reduce payroll? Why would they trade with Stearns who just left the Brewers? I'd take Hauser over either Marco or Perez......but an inter-division trade would be unlikely.
All this talk of Cease on here makes me feel like the trade is imminent. Are we just getting ahead of ourselves or does this appear to be actually happening? Like that GIF of Howard Deane BNP would post incessantly. Who was the dude that always posted the "It's Crow Day" GIF?
I replied to a post here or yesterday's thread. The only place I have found Cease connected to the Pirates was a RumBunter article that mentioned Cease (generically - not with the Pirates) as a trade candidate. The article then went on to say he would be a game changer for the Pirates but there was no mention of any actual connection. Anybody else see anything? I don't doubt there could be a trade, I just don't see the Pirates being in on a pitcher with a high prospect cost with the same control as Keller.
Dylan Cease reminds me of many of the free agent pitchers on the market that had big drop offs going from 2022 to 2023. His ERA went from 2.20 to 4.58. His whip went from 1.11 to 1.42. His fantasy league numbers went from the 28th best player in 2022 to 372nd best in 2023. Before we trade, let's know which Cease we are getting. His ERAs by year have been 5.79, 4.01, 3.91, 2.20, 4.58.
Thanks for sharing. I was surprised he was on this considering he was the league leader in walks in 2022 with 78 and had 79 walks in 2023. His strength might be that he doesn't give up a ton of homers for a strike out pitcher. The drop-off still scares me, but maybe the fielding got a lot worse in 2023. The Sox defense was not good.
Pirates have signed MiL veteran RHP Isaac Mattson.
They also re-signed RHP Wei-Chieh Huang to a MiL deal. They got him in the MiL R5 a year ago and he looked like a fringe depth guy. I saw him pitch in ST, but he missed the whole year with an unknown injury.
Yes i think they probably could too. Perez and Gonzales feel like guys that fit right into the rotation so much better if they are behind cease and keller
They'll never do this and I don't think I'd even like it, but as we wait for any real news, we could construct a mega-trade: Davis, Holderman, Suwinski (ouch), Peguero, and Priester for Cease and Robert.
The Sox get a bunch of talent including two Illinois' kids. They can try Holderman at closer and then deal him for even more value if that works out. Peguero gives them some upside to replace Anderson. Priester and Suwinski replace Cease on Robert, and Davis is the centerpiece to make the deal work.
We get two impact players while clearing three spots from the 40-man for Perez, Cutch, and TBD.
What about Davis as a centerpiece in a trade for Cease or other pitcher? I have mixed feelings about that. On the one hand, I believe in the power. On the other hand, he may not have a defensive home and we could make up for some of the lost power with defense.
It would be an interesting time to trade him, without finding out about his potential as a catcher. But I've wondered if the frequent reports about moving him back to C are partly to enhance his trade value (still trying to reconcile why they didn't play him there last year (before the injury) when it was clear that we weren't going to make the postseason).
This is interesting to me. Sanchez and Delay can hold the fort. Would explain why they didn't let Tank catch in games. Sell high on a blue chip prospect with a bat that could exploit Fenway.
Definitely see this as Endy is clearly the catcher of the future.
Bucs also have a load of guys of decent value in middle infield.
Here is my beef with trading significant prospect capital for Cease. First: Cease > Wacha (or fill in another name).. I get it. But if 'we' can afford Cease in his last 2 years of arbitration then we could afford a 2 or 3 year deal (maybe even slightly over pay) on a free agent WITHOUT giving up the major prospect capital that IMO will be needed for Cease. Without other moves, we can 'compete' with a Cease addition, but we also will be losing assets that will be needed to get to the level above just competing.
Yes, but my assumption is Cease, given his ability to lead a rotation, is part of a bidding war among teams willing to overpay and have a roster they hope can WIN a World Series this year. Pirates can compete with him but he WILL be gone in 2 years. Use that same prospect capital for something that will be around longer. It is not losing the prospects (to your point - tired of waiting), it is what is the cost to doing more than must competing this year. Unless there are other significant moves coming I don't want to just 'compete' at the cost of forfeiting the future as well. I am repetitive but I buy into the TB model.
I wouldn't do it then unless there was an extension with Cease in place. We can overpay in quantity but can't overpay in quality as well. Termarr and Jones maybe but nothing more than a lottery ticket as an add on.
An extension is separate from the prospects dealt. It gives the team exclusive negotiating rights, but that’s all.
Even so, Cease is definitely worth a top 100. Id be hesitant about including TJ, less so on Bubba as a headliner. With some pretty big additional pieces thrown in of course.
For only 2 years of Cease I'd be very hesitant of trading players that are not on the 40 man in general. The Chisox seem to want near major league ready talent. We are already 2 over the 40 man, in my view the secondary prospects need to come from the 40. If not we probably shouldn't be in the bidding war that's going to take place. So a headline would be Jones for me with 3 players on the 40 man or less depending on the players. Then a throw in lottery ticket for the cherry on top. I wouldn't want to leverage 2026 and beyond on a player that is no longer on the team.
"Possible if not likely?" Hardly a definitive statement. 50-50 or less? Whatever, if BC said it do not take it to any bank to try cashing it because his statements usually bounce. It's certainly time he did something worthwhile. Not a lot of confidence in this guy anymore. All he does is sign one year marginal players to try trading them at the July deadline. Here's hoping but there's no point in speculating at this point. We'll see if it's anything other than another waiver pick up when/if it happens.
I’m looking at the Marlins SPs that have reportedly been brought up in trade talks.
LHP Trevor Rogers
RHP Edward Cabrera
LHP Jesus Luzardo
All 3 are 26 years old next season. Rogers & Luzardo both have 3 years remaining, Cabrera has 5. Rogers is probably the cheapest as he is coming off an injury. Luzardo is probably the best of the bunch, at least currently, but Cabrera’s years of control might make him the most expensive.
Not sure what the package might look like, but I hope GMBC is looking long and hard at this group.
It is. I have issues with individual player values on some guys. I also think that his model wayyyy over corrects sometimes on a player if they do well or poorly over a short time.
Yeah it’s not 100% by any means. But, in this instance, it’s easy for us to see that even if the model is wildly overvaluing Luzardo, we still aren’t giving up the prospects to get him.
I agree with everybody's (cop out) opinion on BTV. My basic review is that it is a very good sanity check which can be needed on many trades proposed by fans (and 'expert' writers). I disagree at times, but typically a trade is 'in the ballpark' when it actually occurs.
TJ is a...weird case. Some of the flowery language regarding his hit tool was clearly overboard and prospect fluffing because the newest prospect will always be the best (pick your tool) in years. Years!
Anyway, after the ST injury and the slow start he was a completely different player. Power over hit, with a lot of walks. It’s disorienting when the profile you’ve read about is so different. Maybe they’ve asked him to sell out for power. Maybe he wants to. Maybe this year the hit tool comes along and blends with power. There’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for him, as he’s only got one full year of professional baseball. If he ends up with this profile (walks, power, low average, mediocre D) that’s basically Dan Uggla. I’d take that.
agree, had a lot of fun with it in the spring when Reynolds name kept popping up. every once in a while though, you’ll see a player/value that just seems waaay off
In the case of Luzardo especially, you’re probably either giving up a pretty good prospect or you’re taking on Avisail Garcia’s contract, neither of which we are doing. I could see a package for Cabrera centered around Peguero or Bae.
It’s also important to look at Miami’s depth. They traded Lopez to Minnesota (in one of those good for both team deals). Their starting five is Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Cabrera, and Rogers. Sandy A is done for 24, but they will have Max Meyer back as a depth option.
That’s a helluva top 5, but I don’t think they have a whole lot of depth beyond those guys. Dax Fulton, a big prospect at AA, blew out his elbow in June. Ryan Weathers was a big prospect with San Diego, but has had issues translating to the majors. He’s still only 24. They have some other mildly interesting guys in that AAA/MLB neighborhood (Patrick Monteverde, Bryan Hoeing).
All of this is to say, I wonder if they’ll be choosy about what they trade and when given how precarious their depth is. Also, if they’re serious about improving the MLB roster, they’re likely asking for hitting on the Bucs big club. Like Jack.
Good points. I could see them trading for Cabrera or Rogers for a middle infielder as they need one. They expressed an interest in acquiring a shortstop, so Peguero would definitely be a possibility. But I agree Luzardo is a massive hit to the depth chart. They can probably recreate Cabrera or Rogers in FA. Not Luzardo.
Trying to think of plausible rotation targets with multiple years of control: Jose Quintana, Tyler Anderson, Paul Blackburn, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Brady Singer, Alek Manoah, Shane Bieber, Emerson Hancock. A few of those names, Bieber, Singer are less likely IMO. Quintana and Anderson probably require the Mets/Angels to eat some salary. Feel free to add to the list.
Larger markets with higher payroll can risk losing a quality prospect. When you’re a small market you can’t risk trading away guys like Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow.
The World Series Arizona Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho - far more valuable than either Baz or Glasnow at the time of their trade - just one year ago.
Tampa has thrived after trading guys like Jesus Sanchez and Matt Liberatore and Jake Cronenworth.
The utter paralysis that afflicts Pirate management is not shared by their far more successful peers.
I mean the DBacks traded Varsho for a catching prospect. Thats not really a win now move. Nor was the Liberatore move. Not many had even heard of Arozerana. Those are entirely different trades than unloading Termarr and Jones for Cease.
Balls isn’t as importance as competence. Small markets CANNOT risk losing a trade of that magnitude. You’d better damn well know what you’re giving away... and getting back.
On the other note of big news that will "help the Rotation beyond this year." The Pirates have taken a long and slow process to rebuild this ballclub, and now that they are getting within sight of their long term goal, they are now going to take a short cut? The Pirates are loaded with young pitching that will only grow in value as they mature. Quinn Priester pitched most of 2023 as a 22 year old, and Jared Jones is 11 months younger than Priester. Both did well at AAA last year, and Priester struggled in his first taste of 50 innings in MLB. At AA in 2024 we will have 5 of our best pitching prospects - we are very close - why start to try to accelerate that process now?
Grow in value means they will get better. Unfortunately, the Pirates have a poor record of developing pitchers. Based on Priester’s performance last year, no MLB team expecting to fight for a playoff spot would consider him part of the rotation. Same with Jones. He’s In Triple A, and reports seem to indicate he’s a two pitch guy. Seems like he needs to develop the 3rd pitch. I’m simply not sold on their ability to develop players. I would still much prefer a FA signing with the payroll size. There should still be plenty of flexibility. At some point, the process needs to be accelerated, and while I’d prefer to do the FA signing, I’m not opposed to a trade if it makes sense.
The young pitching might be why you bring in a veteran now because there is that potential but we shouldn't count on every or even most of the prospects working out. Skenes seems like a can't miss but he's the only one and even then, it might take a couple of years for him to settle into a TOR starter.
It would also follow precedent with the obvious comparison being A.J. in '12 but going back farther we added Zane Smith in '90 and Blyleven in '78 who became key components to the success of those teams.
It just has to be the right guy because it could all bomb :)
Bring in a Veteran? How about within the system - Mitch Keller. In 2023, 13-9, 4.21 ERA, 32 Starts, 194 IP, 210 K/55 BB. In 2022 a lousy 5-12 record reflecting the worth of the team behind him, but a 3.91 ERA in 31 Games, 29 Starts. He could be with the Pirates for at least 2024 and 2025 if they do not try to extend him.
Keller is a veteran, but he's also still learning and would benefit from having another TOR starter. And what if he goes down for a stretch? We're still (at least) a starter short to have the talent and depth needed to contend in '24.
I understand all of this, but with the "projected" trades I have seen, it will be another Archer debacle where we suffer annually as we watch the prospects we gave become stars. Has it been long enough to forget?
I like Dylan Cease but his 2023 looked like this - 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 33 Starts, 177 IP, 214 K/79 BB. Keller was better. Cease pitched like crap for a team that was unfolding from Day 1 - hell, Keller has known nothing but teams like that as a SP for the Pirates.
Stick with the kids who want to be with this franchise. As the team gets better offensively, defensively, and pitching, these young prospect pitchers will grow exponentially in value. That's when they can be used to further the strength of the team.
The Pirates have developed Keller, Brubaker, Jones, Priester, Chandler, Solometo, Harrington, Burrows, and Ashcraft and all have done well and have advanced through the system. Skenes is being added this year. Let this brew percolate a little longer before getting over-anxious!
And yet also never would've sniffed a world series title had they hoarded every single prospect instead of strategically using them to acquire better players.
If you paralyze yourself from fear of trading the next Acuna you'll never have the courage to build a winning ballclub.
It always sticks out to me that the Braves at one point had 10 Top100 pitching prospects in their org, and just 2 of them made it to their World Series championship roster.
I went and looked at the FG updated list from 2018. Not only that, but the position player group has some misses: Pache and Waters. Hits: Riley and the since traded Contreras the Younger.
Cease has had an all-world-bad defense behind him. Give him an average one and he looks a good bit better. My problem is the years of control aren't useful for us. Need 3+.
To me it depends on how long 'beyond this year' means. I believe even if Pirates(Bob et al) spent more, that the Pittsburgh market needs to emulate more the Tampa Bay model which means you can't lose assets to free agency. So if the rotation add only has 2 years of control and is a free agent after the 2025 season then I am very concerned the acquisition cost (prospects) would be better used next year (if I squint and dream a little) or allow to mature and potentially be a part of the Pirates future. Net: 'Beyond this year' IMO needs to mean 4 years. If they only have 2 years of control and Pirates fall flat this year, then this acquisition (along with Keller) just become trade deadline decisions as soon as THIS year.
I've advocated for Cease but I'd much prefer someone with more than two years of control, and I think the cost for Cease will be too high. I just want to know that we're in the conversation.
A better acquisition would be someone with 3-4 years of control, maybe one of the young pitchers from the Mariners or Marlins.
Hauser traded to Mets. This is a head-scratcher, why would Brewers not want him as an arb player at about $5.7M? Are the Brewers really trying to reduce payroll? Why would they trade with Stearns who just left the Brewers? I'd take Hauser over either Marco or Perez......but an inter-division trade would be unlikely.
All this talk of Cease on here makes me feel like the trade is imminent. Are we just getting ahead of ourselves or does this appear to be actually happening? Like that GIF of Howard Deane BNP would post incessantly. Who was the dude that always posted the "It's Crow Day" GIF?
I replied to a post here or yesterday's thread. The only place I have found Cease connected to the Pirates was a RumBunter article that mentioned Cease (generically - not with the Pirates) as a trade candidate. The article then went on to say he would be a game changer for the Pirates but there was no mention of any actual connection. Anybody else see anything? I don't doubt there could be a trade, I just don't see the Pirates being in on a pitcher with a high prospect cost with the same control as Keller.
I saw you post that. I guess it is exciting to let our imaginations run wild.
Dylan Cease reminds me of many of the free agent pitchers on the market that had big drop offs going from 2022 to 2023. His ERA went from 2.20 to 4.58. His whip went from 1.11 to 1.42. His fantasy league numbers went from the 28th best player in 2022 to 372nd best in 2023. Before we trade, let's know which Cease we are getting. His ERAs by year have been 5.79, 4.01, 3.91, 2.20, 4.58.
His fips the last 3 years have all been under 4 and lower than his era two of the last 3
Thanks for sharing. I was surprised he was on this considering he was the league leader in walks in 2022 with 78 and had 79 walks in 2023. His strength might be that he doesn't give up a ton of homers for a strike out pitcher. The drop-off still scares me, but maybe the fielding got a lot worse in 2023. The Sox defense was not good.
pass on Cease - not a guy I can get behind willingly
I think hank should spend 3 weeks doing two a days with the fort to get into catching shape
He should move in with the Fort. Like Crosby living with Mario.
Fort said on NS9 that he would love to work with hank for free...
Song lyrics playing....."Anticipation".
All that water carrying paying off for Mackey, who is clearly being used by the Front Office at this point.
Season tickets just went on sale... did they not?
PIRATEFEST IS BACK
Pirates have signed MiL veteran RHP Isaac Mattson.
They also re-signed RHP Wei-Chieh Huang to a MiL deal. They got him in the MiL R5 a year ago and he looked like a fringe depth guy. I saw him pitch in ST, but he missed the whole year with an unknown injury.
Ooooh these mustve been the big moves that Mackey alluded to!
Could they compete for the Central with this...
Cease
Keller
Skenes (after S2)
Perez
Gonzales
Yes, they could
I just bought playoff tickets with that rotation.
Yes i think they probably could too. Perez and Gonzales feel like guys that fit right into the rotation so much better if they are behind cease and keller
I have a funny feeling Ben has a deal on the table for Cease and they're working out the final details.
Give 'em Johnson, Jones, Solomento, White, Jebb. Anyone but Skenes and Bubba.
I'd still want them to hold onto Solo and Termarr with Skenes and Bubba but a combination of 3 or 4 other players hopefully would work.
Solo because I feel he is a safe bet to be a good number 3 in the rotation rather soon.
Termarr because he is the most likely impact bat that hasn't reached the majors.
Skenes and Bubba have the it factor.
They'll never do this and I don't think I'd even like it, but as we wait for any real news, we could construct a mega-trade: Davis, Holderman, Suwinski (ouch), Peguero, and Priester for Cease and Robert.
The Sox get a bunch of talent including two Illinois' kids. They can try Holderman at closer and then deal him for even more value if that works out. Peguero gives them some upside to replace Anderson. Priester and Suwinski replace Cease on Robert, and Davis is the centerpiece to make the deal work.
We get two impact players while clearing three spots from the 40-man for Perez, Cutch, and TBD.
What about Davis as a centerpiece in a trade for Cease or other pitcher? I have mixed feelings about that. On the one hand, I believe in the power. On the other hand, he may not have a defensive home and we could make up for some of the lost power with defense.
It would be an interesting time to trade him, without finding out about his potential as a catcher. But I've wondered if the frequent reports about moving him back to C are partly to enhance his trade value (still trying to reconcile why they didn't play him there last year (before the injury) when it was clear that we weren't going to make the postseason).
I'll look at what they have at catcher on their 40 and prospect wise.
This is interesting to me. Sanchez and Delay can hold the fort. Would explain why they didn't let Tank catch in games. Sell high on a blue chip prospect with a bat that could exploit Fenway.
Definitely see this as Endy is clearly the catcher of the future.
Bucs also have a load of guys of decent value in middle infield.
Fun. But I'll believe it when I see it.
Plus, I think part of the motivation for a trade is to clear space on the 40-man.
That would not work. You'll need a top 100 prospect going to the Sox
Jones is a top 100, Priester was a top 100 when he graduated. Peguero and TonyG were top 100 in 2022.
Holderman and Triolo have preformed at the mlb level.
I personally wouldn't include them but Ben might.
If we’re lucky, JJ will be half the pitcher Cease is.
I doubt Sox would deal Cease without Termarr coming back
Here is my beef with trading significant prospect capital for Cease. First: Cease > Wacha (or fill in another name).. I get it. But if 'we' can afford Cease in his last 2 years of arbitration then we could afford a 2 or 3 year deal (maybe even slightly over pay) on a free agent WITHOUT giving up the major prospect capital that IMO will be needed for Cease. Without other moves, we can 'compete' with a Cease addition, but we also will be losing assets that will be needed to get to the level above just competing.
Aren't you sick and tired of watching top prospect after top prospect come to PGH and bust?
Enough of the play da kids horseshit. Time to win
Yes, but my assumption is Cease, given his ability to lead a rotation, is part of a bidding war among teams willing to overpay and have a roster they hope can WIN a World Series this year. Pirates can compete with him but he WILL be gone in 2 years. Use that same prospect capital for something that will be around longer. It is not losing the prospects (to your point - tired of waiting), it is what is the cost to doing more than must competing this year. Unless there are other significant moves coming I don't want to just 'compete' at the cost of forfeiting the future as well. I am repetitive but I buy into the TB model.
This organization doesn’t develop or roster churn like Tampa. So I’m not sure why you’re expecting that here.
I wouldn't do it then unless there was an extension with Cease in place. We can overpay in quantity but can't overpay in quality as well. Termarr and Jones maybe but nothing more than a lottery ticket as an add on.
An extension is separate from the prospects dealt. It gives the team exclusive negotiating rights, but that’s all.
Even so, Cease is definitely worth a top 100. Id be hesitant about including TJ, less so on Bubba as a headliner. With some pretty big additional pieces thrown in of course.
For only 2 years of Cease I'd be very hesitant of trading players that are not on the 40 man in general. The Chisox seem to want near major league ready talent. We are already 2 over the 40 man, in my view the secondary prospects need to come from the 40. If not we probably shouldn't be in the bidding war that's going to take place. So a headline would be Jones for me with 3 players on the 40 man or less depending on the players. Then a throw in lottery ticket for the cherry on top. I wouldn't want to leverage 2026 and beyond on a player that is no longer on the team.
Johnson would hurt.
Idk man, he has some major red flags in his profile. Upper level arms will be a big test for him.
He's still only 19 and won't turn 20 until around mid season.
They used to say that about Cole Tucker.
Except he’s hit about half as many dingerz as Tucker ever did.
Reminds me of the Casey Stengel line, "We have a guy, Greg Goosens, he's 20 and in ten years he has a chance to be 30."
Sounds like Yogi
Jared Jones to the Padres for Joe Musgrove & $20 million
Depends on if Jumbo Joe’s shoulder is ground beef at this point. I’m skeptical.
That would be a pretty bad look for the Padres, with Joe being from there and maybe only signing the extension because it was with his hometown team.
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"Possible if not likely?" Hardly a definitive statement. 50-50 or less? Whatever, if BC said it do not take it to any bank to try cashing it because his statements usually bounce. It's certainly time he did something worthwhile. Not a lot of confidence in this guy anymore. All he does is sign one year marginal players to try trading them at the July deadline. Here's hoping but there's no point in speculating at this point. We'll see if it's anything other than another waiver pick up when/if it happens.
Bah humbug. Dream for once in your life, it will do wonders for your personality at parties.
I took “ It's also possible — if not likely — that…” to mean, it is more likely than just “ possible”. Optimistic reading of a vague sentence.
I’m looking at the Marlins SPs that have reportedly been brought up in trade talks.
LHP Trevor Rogers
RHP Edward Cabrera
LHP Jesus Luzardo
All 3 are 26 years old next season. Rogers & Luzardo both have 3 years remaining, Cabrera has 5. Rogers is probably the cheapest as he is coming off an injury. Luzardo is probably the best of the bunch, at least currently, but Cabrera’s years of control might make him the most expensive.
Not sure what the package might look like, but I hope GMBC is looking long and hard at this group.
Looking at the BTV simulator, Luzardo’s trade value is $63 MM. Skenes trade value is $61 MM, just to give you an idea.
Don’t love BTV, but this is a good reminder of just how valuable a mid-3 ERA guy with years of control is.
It’s one guys and his models opinion obviously, but it’s a good starting point to give you an idea.
It is. I have issues with individual player values on some guys. I also think that his model wayyyy over corrects sometimes on a player if they do well or poorly over a short time.
Yeah it’s not 100% by any means. But, in this instance, it’s easy for us to see that even if the model is wildly overvaluing Luzardo, we still aren’t giving up the prospects to get him.
I agree with everybody's (cop out) opinion on BTV. My basic review is that it is a very good sanity check which can be needed on many trades proposed by fans (and 'expert' writers). I disagree at times, but typically a trade is 'in the ballpark' when it actually occurs.
BTV is absolutely imperfect while being the best tool fans have to guess at player trade values.
It's way down on Termarr which I sort of get and sort of don't
TJ is a...weird case. Some of the flowery language regarding his hit tool was clearly overboard and prospect fluffing because the newest prospect will always be the best (pick your tool) in years. Years!
Anyway, after the ST injury and the slow start he was a completely different player. Power over hit, with a lot of walks. It’s disorienting when the profile you’ve read about is so different. Maybe they’ve asked him to sell out for power. Maybe he wants to. Maybe this year the hit tool comes along and blends with power. There’s a pretty wide range of outcomes for him, as he’s only got one full year of professional baseball. If he ends up with this profile (walks, power, low average, mediocre D) that’s basically Dan Uggla. I’d take that.
agree, had a lot of fun with it in the spring when Reynolds name kept popping up. every once in a while though, you’ll see a player/value that just seems waaay off
In the case of Luzardo especially, you’re probably either giving up a pretty good prospect or you’re taking on Avisail Garcia’s contract, neither of which we are doing. I could see a package for Cabrera centered around Peguero or Bae.
It’s also important to look at Miami’s depth. They traded Lopez to Minnesota (in one of those good for both team deals). Their starting five is Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Cabrera, and Rogers. Sandy A is done for 24, but they will have Max Meyer back as a depth option.
That’s a helluva top 5, but I don’t think they have a whole lot of depth beyond those guys. Dax Fulton, a big prospect at AA, blew out his elbow in June. Ryan Weathers was a big prospect with San Diego, but has had issues translating to the majors. He’s still only 24. They have some other mildly interesting guys in that AAA/MLB neighborhood (Patrick Monteverde, Bryan Hoeing).
All of this is to say, I wonder if they’ll be choosy about what they trade and when given how precarious their depth is. Also, if they’re serious about improving the MLB roster, they’re likely asking for hitting on the Bucs big club. Like Jack.
I like Weathers a lot, and I liked what I saw from him on the last day of the season when he pitched against us.
Good points. I could see them trading for Cabrera or Rogers for a middle infielder as they need one. They expressed an interest in acquiring a shortstop, so Peguero would definitely be a possibility. But I agree Luzardo is a massive hit to the depth chart. They can probably recreate Cabrera or Rogers in FA. Not Luzardo.
Trying to think of plausible rotation targets with multiple years of control: Jose Quintana, Tyler Anderson, Paul Blackburn, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Brady Singer, Alek Manoah, Shane Bieber, Emerson Hancock. A few of those names, Bieber, Singer are less likely IMO. Quintana and Anderson probably require the Mets/Angels to eat some salary. Feel free to add to the list.
Cease is another
I’m just not sure I see us giving up the prospect package required to get him, particularly that which is needed to outbid, larger markets.
what do large markets have to do with trades?
Larger markets with higher payroll can risk losing a quality prospect. When you’re a small market you can’t risk trading away guys like Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow.
Of course you can.
The World Series Arizona Diamondbacks traded Daulton Varsho - far more valuable than either Baz or Glasnow at the time of their trade - just one year ago.
Tampa has thrived after trading guys like Jesus Sanchez and Matt Liberatore and Jake Cronenworth.
The utter paralysis that afflicts Pirate management is not shared by their far more successful peers.
I mean the DBacks traded Varsho for a catching prospect. Thats not really a win now move. Nor was the Liberatore move. Not many had even heard of Arozerana. Those are entirely different trades than unloading Termarr and Jones for Cease.
more willing to dump prospects knowing they have $$ to sign/acquire proven commodities
Moot if you have a GM that has balls.
Balls isn’t as importance as competence. Small markets CANNOT risk losing a trade of that magnitude. You’d better damn well know what you’re giving away... and getting back.
You can have that?
Seeing Cutch in a Pirates uniform always puts a smile on my face. I will never disagree with any decision to sign him, good baseball decision or not.
Glad to see the Pirates sign 'Cutch.
On the other note of big news that will "help the Rotation beyond this year." The Pirates have taken a long and slow process to rebuild this ballclub, and now that they are getting within sight of their long term goal, they are now going to take a short cut? The Pirates are loaded with young pitching that will only grow in value as they mature. Quinn Priester pitched most of 2023 as a 22 year old, and Jared Jones is 11 months younger than Priester. Both did well at AAA last year, and Priester struggled in his first taste of 50 innings in MLB. At AA in 2024 we will have 5 of our best pitching prospects - we are very close - why start to try to accelerate that process now?
Grow in value means they will get better. Unfortunately, the Pirates have a poor record of developing pitchers. Based on Priester’s performance last year, no MLB team expecting to fight for a playoff spot would consider him part of the rotation. Same with Jones. He’s In Triple A, and reports seem to indicate he’s a two pitch guy. Seems like he needs to develop the 3rd pitch. I’m simply not sold on their ability to develop players. I would still much prefer a FA signing with the payroll size. There should still be plenty of flexibility. At some point, the process needs to be accelerated, and while I’d prefer to do the FA signing, I’m not opposed to a trade if it makes sense.
The young pitching might be why you bring in a veteran now because there is that potential but we shouldn't count on every or even most of the prospects working out. Skenes seems like a can't miss but he's the only one and even then, it might take a couple of years for him to settle into a TOR starter.
It would also follow precedent with the obvious comparison being A.J. in '12 but going back farther we added Zane Smith in '90 and Blyleven in '78 who became key components to the success of those teams.
It just has to be the right guy because it could all bomb :)
Bring in a Veteran? How about within the system - Mitch Keller. In 2023, 13-9, 4.21 ERA, 32 Starts, 194 IP, 210 K/55 BB. In 2022 a lousy 5-12 record reflecting the worth of the team behind him, but a 3.91 ERA in 31 Games, 29 Starts. He could be with the Pirates for at least 2024 and 2025 if they do not try to extend him.
Keller is a veteran, but he's also still learning and would benefit from having another TOR starter. And what if he goes down for a stretch? We're still (at least) a starter short to have the talent and depth needed to contend in '24.
I understand all of this, but with the "projected" trades I have seen, it will be another Archer debacle where we suffer annually as we watch the prospects we gave become stars. Has it been long enough to forget?
I like Dylan Cease but his 2023 looked like this - 7-9, 4.58 ERA, 33 Starts, 177 IP, 214 K/79 BB. Keller was better. Cease pitched like crap for a team that was unfolding from Day 1 - hell, Keller has known nothing but teams like that as a SP for the Pirates.
Stick with the kids who want to be with this franchise. As the team gets better offensively, defensively, and pitching, these young prospect pitchers will grow exponentially in value. That's when they can be used to further the strength of the team.
The Pirates have developed Keller, Brubaker, Jones, Priester, Chandler, Solometo, Harrington, Burrows, and Ashcraft and all have done well and have advanced through the system. Skenes is being added this year. Let this brew percolate a little longer before getting over-anxious!
The Braves were probably smart to hang onto some 19 year old suspect back then named Ronald Acuna, even though struck out 144 times that season.
And yet also never would've sniffed a world series title had they hoarded every single prospect instead of strategically using them to acquire better players.
If you paralyze yourself from fear of trading the next Acuna you'll never have the courage to build a winning ballclub.
Holy shit is this some weirdo prospect fetish. Half of those guys aren’t “developed” yet. They’re still prospects!
It always sticks out to me that the Braves at one point had 10 Top100 pitching prospects in their org, and just 2 of them made it to their World Series championship roster.
I went and looked at the FG updated list from 2018. Not only that, but the position player group has some misses: Pache and Waters. Hits: Riley and the since traded Contreras the Younger.
Cease has had an all-world-bad defense behind him. Give him an average one and he looks a good bit better. My problem is the years of control aren't useful for us. Need 3+.
Keller was only better in ERA.
Cease was better in WAR and FIP.
Pirates can't win with only their farm. Nobody can win like that.
You can't live in past fears.
All those arms you mentioned as developed is false. All prospects are suspects until they prove it in the show.
To me it depends on how long 'beyond this year' means. I believe even if Pirates(Bob et al) spent more, that the Pittsburgh market needs to emulate more the Tampa Bay model which means you can't lose assets to free agency. So if the rotation add only has 2 years of control and is a free agent after the 2025 season then I am very concerned the acquisition cost (prospects) would be better used next year (if I squint and dream a little) or allow to mature and potentially be a part of the Pirates future. Net: 'Beyond this year' IMO needs to mean 4 years. If they only have 2 years of control and Pirates fall flat this year, then this acquisition (along with Keller) just become trade deadline decisions as soon as THIS year.
This is why I don’t think it’s Cease. I’m skeptical the Pirates will even extend Keller, certainly they won’t sign both.
I've advocated for Cease but I'd much prefer someone with more than two years of control, and I think the cost for Cease will be too high. I just want to know that we're in the conversation.
A better acquisition would be someone with 3-4 years of control, maybe one of the young pitchers from the Mariners or Marlins.
Edward Cabrera plz