The Skenes pick doesn't take into consideration the innings he could pitch. Last year, he threw a combined 130 innings in college/MILB. At most he should pitch this year is 150-155 innings. If he starts the season in the rotation he would get 30-32 starts in the majors. That's about 5 innings a start. I don't think it is realistic that anyone will average 5 innings a start and be in the rotation throughout the year. He's going to need to start the season in the minors and have his innings managed--starting with a couple of innings and then moving up to 5 before being recalled. At that point, he could have 30 innings pitched. He will likely pitch ~120 innings at the major league level. He will need to amaze for 120 innings to beat anything that approaches Corbin Carroll type season.
They already went all-in on hyping Skenes as the next Strasburg, so it's only logical to double down and assume Skenes will follow the same trajectory.
I, personally, would not do it this way but ain't nobody payin me to write about baseball.
Pirates will wait until safely after S2 to bring up Skenes, to ensure the extra year of service (WTM already said this in another thread) as cheap as possible. I can just see Skenes coming up and dominating for the remainder of the season and finishing in the top 3 for ROY and gaining the PPI bonus and getting a full year's service time. So by being cheap and manipulating his service time they could lose a year of control and by his performance could set him up for record amount arbitration raises. All without getting the extra PPI pick.
I was thinking about a 7 or 8 year contract for Skenes the other day. I researched what some other guys have gotten in similar circumstances (no MLB games). I decided I don't like it from the Pirates end. The benefits are he can start this season in the bigs, they get 1-2 extra years of control, and they get cost certainty. But the downside is they really only come out ahead if he is dominant pitcher and pitches every year with no major injuries. If he loses even partial years to injuries, they probably lose in the end. So I've decided I'm more willing to bring him up in June and go year-to-year. Or perhaps consider an extension offer next offseason.
Can't really think of one, but an apples to oranges comparison could be a few of the contracts of the Japanese pitchers. Mainly based on not throwing a pitch in an actual mlb game before signing.
I'm really high on Skenes and think it would be worth the risk, but I'm low enough on the owner, front office and player development that Skenes wouldn't have the other intangibles around him to make the contract work.
Real risky for a pitcher but Skenes just seems like a can't miss guy. He'll figure it out himself if they start pointing him in the wrong direction.
My guess is 8 years $85 million would get it done, as long as he hasn't thrown an mlb pitch yet.
I really wasn't thinking about the team extending him, just what it would take.
Right on, not challenging the concept at all. Just couldn't think of any of these pre-arb and certainly not pre-MLB deals going to pitchers.
Almost all hitter deals have turned out poor to mid, so it makes sense that pitcher deals would be even more rare. Seems like clubs think they'd have to hedge their bet so hard that the numbers just might not work out for pitchers.
Like the future possibilities of a kid like Paul Skenes, but he is still only 21 and will not turn 22 until the end of May. Starting him at AA is a challenging start for any pitcher coming straight out of college, and after only 6.2 innings of professional baseball.
Looking forward to seeing how Skenes adapts, then making some projections from that point. Our group of upper level (AA/AAA/MLB) prospect pitchers is extremely impressive - Jared Jones, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, Carmen Mlodzinski, Thomas Harrington, and don't sleep on Kyle Nicolas or Braxton Ashcraft either. That's not counting Barco, Kennedy, Mueth and others.
2024 will be a year where the Pirates will set themselves for at least the next 5 years - identifying our Top 6 SP's and then trading some excellent pitching to fill defensive gaps at 1B and CF, and also possibly another bat or two!
I agree he most likely needs time in the minors. I just think if he's doing well they'll bring him up after the S2 time frame to appease the fans and it'll backfire on them.
Skenes has only been pitching full-time for one year. He is still experimenting with grips and so forth on fourth-pitch options. He rarely threw his changeup in college, because it comes in at the velocity of most college-level fastballs. He is going to need a little time in the minors. I would like him to find a fourth pitch that he can throw comfortably for strikes and work on sequencing his changeup (is it a pitch only for lefties or can he use it against righties too, even early in the count) before they bring him up.
The won't do anything to appease the fans. They never do, but they might bring him up early just so Cherington can cover his behind if things go poorly early on.
If Hank Davis wasn't promoted at least in some significant part to appease fans then there's nothing they could do to appease fans. Of course that was a huge part of rushing him.
I guess it depends upon how one looks at it. Determining motive is always speculative, risky, and subject to personal opinion. One could say Davis was called up to appease fans, and I won't put up much objection. However, in my opinion, he was called up to show ownership (and the media that influences, at some point, ownership) that Cherington has drafted at least one player who can play baseball at the major-league level... i.e. CYA.
This is why I think that if Skenes dominates in ST, there is a chance that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. But even as a favorite for ROY, it's still enough of a longshot that it's much more likely they won't promote him until May. There's also precedent--when was the last time a SP with as few professional innings as Skenes started the following season in the majors?
I found an article from the old place that said they need 172 days in the majors to qualify for PPI. If I’m reading that right, that should be easy enough for them to manipulate?
Upon further research, it appears that the 172 applies to team incentives. But he would have to finish 1 or 2 in the ROY voting to gain the extra year of service time. So if anything, I could maybe see them pushing him back even a little further. Even if they do bring him up in mid-June, they could also put him on strict pitch counts, skip starts, etc in the name of arm health. Kinda hard for him to win rookie of the year if he isn’t pitching enough innings.
IRT to Priester: If you haven’t listened to the Priester fangraphs podcast from spring training listen to it. I think they have a very deliberate plan with him. The plan for 2023 WAS NOT to dominate for 5 innings… it was pitch as many 6 or 7 inning starts as possible.
What I found interesting in that interview was that he doesn't use Trakman data much. This was one of the things that Cherington brought in and criticized the prior administration for ignoring in player development. Seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same.
I did and I hope he does get that velocity back. He’s a fun guy to root for, but the fastball shape has been an issue for awhile, and the book on him is the curve is easy to spot out of his hand. And it’s a nice goal to eat innings, but that’s only going to happen if you’re missing bats and/or inducing weak contact. Which he did neither of in 2023.
Yeah, the loss of velocity concerns me. That concern actually goes back to seeing him live in '22 when he was great at getting grounders but struggled at putting players away with K's. It was a solid game, but seeing him get only 4 K's in 6.1 IP and then Selby getting 4 K's in 1.2 IP was quite the contrast. And it wasn't that he was trying to limit his pitch count because there were plenty of 2-strike counts where a K wouldn't have cost him (as it was, it took him 88 pitches to get those 19 outs, so he wasn't being that efficient).
But by all accounts, he's a smart, hard-working player and I still have hope he'll figure out how to get more swing-and-miss.
Priester has been pushed quickly through the system. His MLB efforts last year were as a 22 year old, and he will pitch almost all of the 2024 season as a 23 year old. I'd be happy to see Keller, Gonzales, Perez, Jones, and Priester as our Rotation to start 2024.
Priester is 2 years younger that Hunter Brown, and almost 2 years younger than Grayson Rodriguez who started 2023 with 45 innings of 7.35 ERA.
Q was basically one level per year starting in 2021. High A in 21, AA with a dash of Indy in 22, and then half and half in 23. That isn’t really a fast track through the system.
His age relative to Rodriguez doesn’t matter because Rodriguez was drafted a year before Q. So he should be older. And Brown was drafted out of college, so he’d be older as well. How is that even relevant? Rodriguez and Brown have always been more well regarded in terms of stuff than Q has been. And had better track records in the minors.
The Skenes pick doesn't take into consideration the innings he could pitch. Last year, he threw a combined 130 innings in college/MILB. At most he should pitch this year is 150-155 innings. If he starts the season in the rotation he would get 30-32 starts in the majors. That's about 5 innings a start. I don't think it is realistic that anyone will average 5 innings a start and be in the rotation throughout the year. He's going to need to start the season in the minors and have his innings managed--starting with a couple of innings and then moving up to 5 before being recalled. At that point, he could have 30 innings pitched. He will likely pitch ~120 innings at the major league level. He will need to amaze for 120 innings to beat anything that approaches Corbin Carroll type season.
Callis' explanation says a lot about his logic.
They already went all-in on hyping Skenes as the next Strasburg, so it's only logical to double down and assume Skenes will follow the same trajectory.
I, personally, would not do it this way but ain't nobody payin me to write about baseball.
Pirates will wait until safely after S2 to bring up Skenes, to ensure the extra year of service (WTM already said this in another thread) as cheap as possible. I can just see Skenes coming up and dominating for the remainder of the season and finishing in the top 3 for ROY and gaining the PPI bonus and getting a full year's service time. So by being cheap and manipulating his service time they could lose a year of control and by his performance could set him up for record amount arbitration raises. All without getting the extra PPI pick.
I was thinking about a 7 or 8 year contract for Skenes the other day. I researched what some other guys have gotten in similar circumstances (no MLB games). I decided I don't like it from the Pirates end. The benefits are he can start this season in the bigs, they get 1-2 extra years of control, and they get cost certainty. But the downside is they really only come out ahead if he is dominant pitcher and pitches every year with no major injuries. If he loses even partial years to injuries, they probably lose in the end. So I've decided I'm more willing to bring him up in June and go year-to-year. Or perhaps consider an extension offer next offseason.
He probably needs some time in the minors. If he looks ready in spring training though, I'd be very tempted to start him in the rotation.
The baseline for a contract would be what the Brewers just gave their young outfielder. Probably a tad more.
Has a pitcher ever come close to such a contract?
Has *any* pitcher been given such a contract?
Can't really think of one, but an apples to oranges comparison could be a few of the contracts of the Japanese pitchers. Mainly based on not throwing a pitch in an actual mlb game before signing.
I'm really high on Skenes and think it would be worth the risk, but I'm low enough on the owner, front office and player development that Skenes wouldn't have the other intangibles around him to make the contract work.
Real risky for a pitcher but Skenes just seems like a can't miss guy. He'll figure it out himself if they start pointing him in the wrong direction.
My guess is 8 years $85 million would get it done, as long as he hasn't thrown an mlb pitch yet.
I really wasn't thinking about the team extending him, just what it would take.
Right on, not challenging the concept at all. Just couldn't think of any of these pre-arb and certainly not pre-MLB deals going to pitchers.
Almost all hitter deals have turned out poor to mid, so it makes sense that pitcher deals would be even more rare. Seems like clubs think they'd have to hedge their bet so hard that the numbers just might not work out for pitchers.
Totally agree but if ever a pitcher to take the risk on, Skenes is probably as good a bet as any.
Right. That was $82M for 8 years. So think values like $1M, $1M, $1M. Then arb years like $5M, $10M, $15M. And FA years of like $25M and $25M.
The problem with the pirates is they think like,
Minimum for a half year, year, year, year, arb1, arb2, arb3. So 7 years 30 to 35 million max or trade him if the arbitration number gets high to soon.
I'm still surprised they signed Hayes like they did. He got himself a nice payday for his minimum half season and the pirates got a bargain.
A lot more.
Like the future possibilities of a kid like Paul Skenes, but he is still only 21 and will not turn 22 until the end of May. Starting him at AA is a challenging start for any pitcher coming straight out of college, and after only 6.2 innings of professional baseball.
Looking forward to seeing how Skenes adapts, then making some projections from that point. Our group of upper level (AA/AAA/MLB) prospect pitchers is extremely impressive - Jared Jones, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, Carmen Mlodzinski, Thomas Harrington, and don't sleep on Kyle Nicolas or Braxton Ashcraft either. That's not counting Barco, Kennedy, Mueth and others.
2024 will be a year where the Pirates will set themselves for at least the next 5 years - identifying our Top 6 SP's and then trading some excellent pitching to fill defensive gaps at 1B and CF, and also possibly another bat or two!
I agree he most likely needs time in the minors. I just think if he's doing well they'll bring him up after the S2 time frame to appease the fans and it'll backfire on them.
Skenes has only been pitching full-time for one year. He is still experimenting with grips and so forth on fourth-pitch options. He rarely threw his changeup in college, because it comes in at the velocity of most college-level fastballs. He is going to need a little time in the minors. I would like him to find a fourth pitch that he can throw comfortably for strikes and work on sequencing his changeup (is it a pitch only for lefties or can he use it against righties too, even early in the count) before they bring him up.
The won't do anything to appease the fans. They never do, but they might bring him up early just so Cherington can cover his behind if things go poorly early on.
If Hank Davis wasn't promoted at least in some significant part to appease fans then there's nothing they could do to appease fans. Of course that was a huge part of rushing him.
I guess it depends upon how one looks at it. Determining motive is always speculative, risky, and subject to personal opinion. One could say Davis was called up to appease fans, and I won't put up much objection. However, in my opinion, he was called up to show ownership (and the media that influences, at some point, ownership) that Cherington has drafted at least one player who can play baseball at the major-league level... i.e. CYA.
Your right it will be Cherington to try and save his job if things aren't looking good.
This is why I think that if Skenes dominates in ST, there is a chance that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. But even as a favorite for ROY, it's still enough of a longshot that it's much more likely they won't promote him until May. There's also precedent--when was the last time a SP with as few professional innings as Skenes started the following season in the majors?
I found an article from the old place that said they need 172 days in the majors to qualify for PPI. If I’m reading that right, that should be easy enough for them to manipulate?
Pretty sure that's for the team to get a draft pick or international space.
Upon further research, it appears that the 172 applies to team incentives. But he would have to finish 1 or 2 in the ROY voting to gain the extra year of service time. So if anything, I could maybe see them pushing him back even a little further. Even if they do bring him up in mid-June, they could also put him on strict pitch counts, skip starts, etc in the name of arm health. Kinda hard for him to win rookie of the year if he isn’t pitching enough innings.
IRT to Priester: If you haven’t listened to the Priester fangraphs podcast from spring training listen to it. I think they have a very deliberate plan with him. The plan for 2023 WAS NOT to dominate for 5 innings… it was pitch as many 6 or 7 inning starts as possible.
Link??
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-ryan-thibodaux-chats-ballots-quinn-priester-talks-pitching/
Was the deliberate plan to lose velocity and get shelled in the majors? Makes it tough to go 6/7 innings.
He says he needs to bulk up. Feels he can sit 95 as he bulks up. Listen to that podcast
What I found interesting in that interview was that he doesn't use Trakman data much. This was one of the things that Cherington brought in and criticized the prior administration for ignoring in player development. Seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same.
I did and I hope he does get that velocity back. He’s a fun guy to root for, but the fastball shape has been an issue for awhile, and the book on him is the curve is easy to spot out of his hand. And it’s a nice goal to eat innings, but that’s only going to happen if you’re missing bats and/or inducing weak contact. Which he did neither of in 2023.
However things go, he strikes me a lot like Keller always has — there’s always going to be a premium mental effort to find answers.
Yeah, the loss of velocity concerns me. That concern actually goes back to seeing him live in '22 when he was great at getting grounders but struggled at putting players away with K's. It was a solid game, but seeing him get only 4 K's in 6.1 IP and then Selby getting 4 K's in 1.2 IP was quite the contrast. And it wasn't that he was trying to limit his pitch count because there were plenty of 2-strike counts where a K wouldn't have cost him (as it was, it took him 88 pitches to get those 19 outs, so he wasn't being that efficient).
But by all accounts, he's a smart, hard-working player and I still have hope he'll figure out how to get more swing-and-miss.
Priester has been pushed quickly through the system. His MLB efforts last year were as a 22 year old, and he will pitch almost all of the 2024 season as a 23 year old. I'd be happy to see Keller, Gonzales, Perez, Jones, and Priester as our Rotation to start 2024.
Priester is 2 years younger that Hunter Brown, and almost 2 years younger than Grayson Rodriguez who started 2023 with 45 innings of 7.35 ERA.
Q was basically one level per year starting in 2021. High A in 21, AA with a dash of Indy in 22, and then half and half in 23. That isn’t really a fast track through the system.
His age relative to Rodriguez doesn’t matter because Rodriguez was drafted a year before Q. So he should be older. And Brown was drafted out of college, so he’d be older as well. How is that even relevant? Rodriguez and Brown have always been more well regarded in terms of stuff than Q has been. And had better track records in the minors.