Most pitchers want more years than what Keller got because age 32 will be the next time he can be a free agent. He sacrificed some years as I think the Pirates $77m total is fair market price. $5m this year, $12m for his aribitration year, $20m a year totals $77m. That seems fair to me, even though I haven't seen the breakdown yet.
I'm in the wait and see category myself, just thinking of starting points. My base that I think he would go for is something like 6 years at $7mil AAV with 2 option years each year has a $4mil buyout. The 2 options would be around $20mil each.
That’s not a risk I’m willing to take. This is a conservative position that could backfire, but the Pirates still have no idea if Cruz is going to be back to his pre-injury self. Further, his pre-injury self, while electrifying, had some serious flaws both at the plate and in the field. I’m waiting on this one, and hope for the good problem of having him play at an all-star level.
Totally valid way to look at it. I'm sorta in that boat of wait and see. The gamble is if he has a breakout. He's got 2 more pre-arb years to set his arbitration price so there's time. With a breakout that number raises fast though.
Yes... but players like Cruz, if he breaks out, have actual value on the trade market in their final arbitration years, unlike some of the guys that the Pirates have tried to peddle in the past. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat and get value from players. No one knows if Cruz will be able to play SS adequately this year, let alone 5 years in the future. I am just not sure that he a is a guy that you want to build around, especially with the Pirates insisting that he play SS. Now if you were to move him to 3B or even CF, and he could play CF well, then that would be something you would want to consider nailing down to a longer term deal if the bat is as advertised.
With his toolset, he should have been out there since the complex league. A CF who can fly and hit like Cruz has potential to hit is worth gold, but these are the Pirates.
I was able to catch a game in Charleston WV right after he came over in 2017. He looked so out of place at shortstop, more his body and height rather than motions. He could still flat out fly and of course his cannon of an arm stood out. I thought he was sure to be ticketed for center field.
Yes, except that he had agreed to ~$5.5MM for next year, so '79 is noting that the extension is more like ~$18MM over the four following years. I think it's actually a bit of an overpay, but after our lack of success in signing FAs this winter, a necessary overpay. And as a fan, I mostly care about being able to watch a pitcher that I've been rooting for for awhile.
This organization is scared to death to commit for more than one year to players outside the organization, but take the polar opposite approach to players inside the organization.
Glass half full or half empty? You tell me.
BTW, congrats to Mitch Keller. Happy to have you signed sealed and delivered for years to come.
Not here to piss in anyone's cheerios but I still maintain this is just awful organizational management.
All they're doing is locking in the same losing core for a couple extra post-peak years. They've somehow managed to commit almost $200m without actually *adding* any talent. Truly incredible mismanagement.
A smart club that wasn't governed by a rent-seeking owner would've extended the Musgrove's and Marte's they inherited so they could take advantage of the cheap/free years from the guys they're now extending.
As-is, these are the guys plus what's left of a vastly diminished farm system you're gonna see through the end of the decade. That's it. No chance of outside reinforcements in any substantial sense.
The only one of these contracts that should really bog them down is Reynolds. You need some pieces to anchor around. Keller his price and Hayes at his seem fine. I am still not sold on Hayes being consistently what he appeared to be at the end of last season, but if he is, that contract is golden.
It’s great and I think everyone knows there is more to get out of him, as opposed to Keller and Reynolds. Because we’ve seen the bat and he has some good traits. It’s a question of health and consistency.
Of the three extensions that happened recently- Hayes, Reynolds, Keller, I'd rate them as follows on a scale of 1-10:
Hayes- 9. AAV of just north of 8. Bought out 3 to 4 free agency years. Covers all of his prime, and only a couple years, at most, of his decline. Risk he can pound the ball into he ground too much to be a good hitter, but with defense and EV, still worth the AAV. And if his launch angle improvement is legit, he has a chance to be a really good player.
Keller- 6. AAV of around 18 after this year. Not a real bargain, but not an overpay if he just pitches like an average starter. I mean, it's fine. But not something to over celebrate.
Reynolds- 2.5- There was no need to extend him as the Pirates controlled him through his age 30 season. He's a good, but nowhere near great player, and about to hit his decline years. They'll be paying him 15 million at ages 33-35. Not a big sunk cost to most teams, but the Pirates.... I neve got this one and often advocated against it when lots of fans were #extendreynolds
Yeah... not a fan the Reynolds extension and wasn't at the time. I wanted them to trade him, but Cherington kept making these ridiculous statement about what the Pirates wanted in exchange, which was way above market for 3 arbitration years of a 3-3.5 WAR player.
Has it occurred to anybody that this is just a variant on NH’s “plan?” His idea was to assemble a roster of cheap 1- to 2-WAR players with 4-5 YOC, and hope enough guys had career years now and then to push them into pseudo-contention. Is this any different?
It's a conservative* approach--GMs don't stand to get nearly the criticism for extensions that don't work as they do for FA signings that don't work. So in that way, it fits with this FO's MO.
I like the extensions though, but you're right that if we don't bring in new talent, we're unlikely to be a serious contender for championships.
*Though not as conservative as not spending anything.
A core of Hayes, Reynolds and Keller at their salary commitments is somewhere around a third of their max payroll capacity. Maybe even closer to 40%. So yes, no reinforcements. This year the Braves have Murphy, Acuna and Albies on the books for about the same figure. Yes. Good luck.
Those three together are at 40% of their payroll right now. FG has them at 91 mil and they’re at 34.6. They’re not at their max.
Also, they have nearly 31 mil coming off the books in 24 with all the 1 year commits. Ideally some of those can be replaced if any of the young guys take a step up.
Excuse me I stand corrected. I had Hayes at $10 MM. $38 MM of $115 MM is 33%. $35 MM of $115 MM is 30%. I also have questions if they’ll spend to $115 MM.
My point still stands though. Your $31 MM coming off the books is always going to be an ever present issue with arbitration raises, needing to plug holes etc. If past is prologue, they’d use that $31 MM spread around 6-7 crummy players anyways. And is there money for further extensions, say Oneil Cruz? Doubt it. They are trying to play a Cardinals strategy on a Rays budget: Hayes and Reynolds are your Goldy and Arenado, Keller is your Wainwright.
Your overall point holds water, for sure. There are substantial questions as to whether they’ll spend to 115-120 for more than three months before Nutting panics and forces a Liriano 2.0 trade on BC.
I think it all depends on what happens internally with pre-arb guys. If guys like Cruz and Davis bust out and we’re looking at a 10 win jump in 24, most of that 30 mil comes off the roster and can be backfilled with those pre-arb players who (ideally) are contributors. They “could” then spend some of the money saved on short term FAs, rather than the hoopdi FAs that are Grandal. A FO has to be dexterous to pull that off though, and these guys move slow.
It’s fair to ask if there is money for Cruz. It probably means Bednar will be traded (not that I advocate an extension for him in any way).
“There are substantial questions as to whether they’ll spend to 115-120 for more than three months before Nutting panics and forces a Liriano 2.0 trade on BC.“
Yes! And there’s a substantial amount of risk in Keller’s game (IMO) that could force a Liriano 2.0.
Of course I agree a lot of the success in this model hinges on some of the prospects and also some guys like Cruz and Davis establishing themselves. But is it sustainable beyond the 2-3 year run we had last time? I’m skeptical on both counts. They seem to like their prospects a lot more than the writers and their colleagues in the industry. And a longer window means establishing a solid minor league pipeline, which they’ve yet to demonstrate.
I definitely agree with the part about not bringing in any new talent. However, it seems contradictory when you say they should’ve locked in Marte and Musgrove to take advantage of Keller, Hayes, Reynolds, et al while they were cheap. Can’t a case be made that’s exactly what they’re doing now?
Read that article yesterday and with all the details about player development and the like the clear message is the same one every Pirate fan knows all too well; Nutting's unwillingness to spend money. His insistence that any improvement in the team has to come from within remains one of his many excuses for not spending on free agents and that's not likely to translate into a contending team these days particularly when opponents are doing it. Does he get credit for signing Hayes, Reynolds and Keller? Certainly, he does but even that money will most likely be wasted unless does more than that.
Maybe, just maybe, if prospects develop more and the team looks to be on the verge of contending he might become willing to spend some to fill holes, but that remains to be seen. The guy's an albatross around the neck of Pittsburgh baseball, but unfortunately there's not much of anything that can be done about it other than to keep pointing it out in the hope he might actually start to care.
Yes.. I still didn't get the Pirates fit for providing a starting SS for them. Peggy was closest among the rumors but he hasn't even proven he can win the 2B job for the Pirates yet, why would the Marlins just plug him in at SS as a starter. Alika types can be found on waivers unless they believe in his short hitting outburst in AAA last year. Cabrera trade could still happen but I think it would be them adding to their prospect pool, not filling an immediate MLB need (outside of possible bullpen).
Awesome news! I was hoping that with Cherington implying that prices were too high to acquire impact FA pitching this offseason, the logical conclusion would be to extend Keller even if it was a much bigger commitment than they had made to a pitcher previously. Good for him, and good for Keller.
Ok just so everyone is clear on this misconception, there’s absolutely no way BN gave BC the go ahead to negotiate an extension for Keller yesterday. This deal has been cooking for a whole lot longer than that. Purely coincidental it gets completed the day after the Nesbitt article.
Before FA began i suggested 4/$65 + $20m option year to make it 5/$85. Lots of folks telling me I was waaayyyy underestimating. Looks like my math wasn't all that bad
He’s getting Pablo Lopez money and Lopez is a true one, perhaps an Ace, Mitch is not there yet, still profiling as a strong 3, perhaps a slight over pay, but in line with how every other mid rotation starter has gotten this off season.
Sept. 27, 2023 - What does an extension look like for Keller?
2 more Arbitration years left. Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber & Brandon Woodruff each got ~10mil for their Arb3 year. Couldn't find a comparable SP for Arb4, so lets just call that ~15mil. So essentially 2 years, 25-30mil left on his "current contract".
I found 2 comparable SP, Arb Extensions - Kyle Freeland (5/$65, bought out 4 FA years) & Logan Webb (5/$90, 3 FA years). Both have been better than Keller over their careers, but we're hoping Keller's last season+ has put him at their level.
Here's what I propose: 4 years, $65 million + 5th year option that can bring it to 5/$85. 16.25mil AAV w a $20 mil option year.
Sources say he is dyslexic. So when he spends 12 million on someone he thinks he actually spent 21 million. It's more common than you think. It mainly affects 1-3rd graders.
His ass is mute for another 2 years now. Took a vow of silence. On a meditation retreat at Seven Springs. New owners gave him a discount. That's what my sources say. They are different than Bmac's.
It seems like we're paying roughly $20MM per year for those three FA years. I'm super glad we're doing it. Now, let's be open to making that kind of commitment to actual FA pitchers--there were a bunch of interesting pitchers in that ~$20MM AAV price range that signed for similar years.
That's interesting to consider. Sticking to the same position, the Dbacks signed Eduardo Rodriguez for $20MM AAV over four years and the Cubs' deal with Imanaga has an AAV of only about $13MM over four years; though there was also the posting fee. Rodriguez and Imanaga ranked 11th and10th in MLBTR's FA rankings.
If Keller's deal is an indication that we're willing to spend at that level despite the inherent risk with pitchers, it's a great sign. If it simply is a one-off, possibly even to stem off criticism about their disappointing offseason, then I'm still happy but less optimistic about our future than if we, as NMR points out, also made a similar commitment to bring in new talent.
Important detail on Woodruff is that he had shoulder surgery in October and may not pitch at all in 2024, so it's mostly a 2025-2026 deal. The really odd part (and feel free to compare/contrast with how the pirates might have approached this) is the $10M buyout of the mutual option in 2026 -- basically guaranteeing a pitcher with shoulder issues $10M minimum in 2026. The brewers probably have solid intel on the shoulder, or really good insurance. Would the pirates sign a free-agent to a deal like this -- $2.5M to not pitch this year but be signed for 2025? Unlikely.
Problems cited as "the draft and getting players acclimated to the majors" is hard for me to understand. The Pirates are absolutely loaded with excellent prospects who we have drafted and developed over the past 4 or 5 years. Of our top 4 infielders to start 2024, 2 were drafted by the Pirates (Hayes and Triolo) and 2 are IFA's who we got in Trades (Cruz and Peguero). Hayes and Triolo have been fully developed by the Pirates and Cruz and Peguero were almost fully developed by the Pirates. In our OF Suwinski and Reynolds were received in Trades, but their development was finalized by the Pirates - IIRC they both came as AA players. Henry Davis drafted and fully developed by the Pirates to date, and Endy Rodriguez (injured) an IFA in trade almost fully developed by the Pirates.
In the last 4 or 5 years the Pirates have drafted and developed pitching that is the envy of the other 29 MLB teams. We have others drafted early - Gonzales is a good example of a player who has issues, but is still working at getting better. With the infield set (IMO), and TJ to be at AA in 2024, Gonzales at age 25 needs to be used possibly in a trade to help get this team a CF. Possibly the same with Bae, but he is a VG leadoff hitter with base stealing speed, and can also play CF. Gorski is another example, but I doubt he has any trade value at this point.
So much of this is exaggeration because you refuse to see anything other than through rose-colored glasses. Of those four infielders, only one is really proven in the majors. Cruz, Peggy, and Triolo have talent, sure, but they’re. It established, productive major leaguers.
What’s not open for debate is the fact none of the Pirates prospects have ever hit the ground running under BC like we often see with other organizations. Hayes may have been the outlier if it wasn’t for injuries.
If we just use your examples. Hayes hitting success in the majors has been largely attributed (in various accounts) to a coach now no longer in the organization. Triolo's success in 209 MLB PAs is heavily weighted by an unsustainable 440 BABIP. Cruz is TBD, as he only has 410 career PAs at this point and we still don't know what he is . Peguero only has 217 PAs, so he's TBD. Reynolds had an electric debut of 3.5 fWAR in 2019, ballooned up to 6.0 fWAR in 2021 after a poor covid season, then has decreased each year after: 2.8 fWAR in 2022 and 2.3 fWAR in 2023. Jack, I'd call a success. But we'll see if he replicates, adds on to, or falls this season. Endy is out for the year, so we won't get a feeling on his progress. Then Davis, we'll see how this year goes.
So, through all that, what all have "they" developed? They're hanging their hats on a bench bat, a couple maybe regulars, and list of TBD's?
They "developed/fixed" Keller, I guess, but even that is questionable as to how much of it was the Pirates versus Tread Athletics. I'd say Oviedo is a success, but again, he's relatively TBD since he's out for a year and we won't find out if it continued or progressed. Mlodzinski looks great, there's that, but still gotta see with his sophomore season.
Bednar. There's Bednar. Acquired and developed an elite closer.
I watched the NS9 podcast with Nesbitt last night, and the thing that stuck out the most to me was his recount from a player that wasn't included in the story. A former pitcher saying if it's August, and he just can't find his stuff, who does he go to? All the Pirates have are kids that say "get 2 more inches of ride and you're good to go", but no one to tell/teach him HOW to get those 2 inches. Much like everything that was said about Nunnally, there's no intermediary. There's a kid telling them WHAT they need to do, but no one that can actually teach them what to do. So, I think about Keller's mid-season road bump. Is this an issue that arises because of this? Jack disappearing for a month's time. Alex Stumpf had an article yesterday with Roansy detailing how he "just couldn't find his mechanics all season". ALL SEASON.
When the story broke about Roansy staying in Seattle to go do Driveline last year, that was my biggest question mark. Not that he was getting outside assistance, but that he HAD to go to an outside facility, mid-season, to find himself. That, I feel, is one of the biggest indictments of this team. Sure, they let kids go to Driveline, Tread, etc. in the off-season to improve, but what happens once they step on Pirates dirt? What happens when their mechanics get a little off? What happens when they hit a rough patch? The Nick Gonzales struggles itself doesn't help their case, as a lot of us here have been calling out his swing-and-miss issues since his Greensboro days with no sign of improvement.
I'm really not sure what to think of their development.
They have guys like Reynolds who was a 45 FV and he's a clear W in the dev department
Suwisnski was a 40 FV, another W for their dev
Keller is a W
Hayes is a W
Connor Joe had a career year last season with 2 WAR. dude was a FV 40
Bednar is absolutely a W
I could site other examples as well, but what's the sense
citing Driveline kinda looks like an excuse as players throughout the league use places like that.
I think good talented players pan out and other don't. Henry Davis was a flawed player when he was drafted and we're seeing those flaws. Combine his flaw and being rushed to the majors clearly disrupted his development.
Guys like Ro, Ortiz and Priester were all guys that flashed velo never seen before during the pandemic. They're just not built to sustain. Nick G was overvalued during the draft, he didn't face big arms in college. Sometimes it's ok to call a spade a spade...Nick was an over draft and he sucks. He can't identify spin. Somethings you can't teach.
No the current Pittsburgh Pirates aren't an elite dev org nor is John Baker the kind of mensch that certain outlets no longer in business made him out to be, but neither are they some kind of abysmal failure. The Pirates are firmly in the meaty part of the bell curve.
If I ignore the fact that we still have a 5th year Manager-in-Training, or that we have done little to date to resolve the gaps at 1B and CF, I do appreciate the fact they are on the upward swing!
Sometimes it's ok to call a spade a spade, such as the Pirates dev team. A lot of the arguments derive from what are the metrics for determining a "W"? A prospect making the majors? Becoming a regular? Reaching potential? Exceeding potential?
Do you also include in relation to rest of league? And how does one personally weigh that?
It's just feels like a cop out saying, "Oh, they were just overvalued". Well, there's still an issue there. Whether it's the scouting or dev team.
I mostly just find it funny how for example you can have the Braves draft a Spencer Strider in the 4th round, develop him into a 5+ fWAR Cy Young candidate, but we're supposed to applaud the Pirates FO and dev team for developing ONE 2 WAR backend starter going into their 5th season? Even giving them credit for Keller, one middle rotation arm and one backend starter (Oviedo). 3rd rounder Michael Harris Jr. into a 4+ fWAR player, but applaud the Pirates for wins on what would be role or bench players on any other competitive club? Orioles churning out 2+ WAR hitters like nobody's business, hitting a homerun in 2019 on Gunnar (a once 40+/45 FV prospect) in the second round without even including Adley.
And yes, everyone uses Driveline, but in the Pirates case, it's appearing that they RELY on facilities like Driveline to develop their players.
"Bunch of guys". You listed 3 in-house and 3 outside acquisitions (with regards to this regime), in 5 years. I'm not a parrot, you just have a really low bar for a "W". Tossing aside anyone who fails/struggles as, "Well, they just weren't good to begin with. It's not their fault."
The Atlanta Braves at one point had *TEN* Top 100 pitching prospects in their org and managed to develop just one of them, Max Fried, into an above average pitcher.
Absolutely abysmal track record.
Pointing to Strider as proof of developmental pitching success is like lauding the Angels for elite hitting development because they have Mike Trout.
Honest question, is there no good way to teach the ability to identify spin? I guess I always assumed that could be learned but maybe not as much as I thought
They could've picked a better actor for Bo Gentry. What GM is selecting a high school body like that @ 1-2? 18-year-olds that look like that do not age well at all. Also, Timberlake doesn't exactly come across as a former phenom pitcher.
Three quick thoughts Nola, one is that it's hard to develop players properly when you throw 'service time' in as a factor in their development, then you're not signing quality free agents to compete and signing aging once successful veterans hoping they regain their youth instead of playing your top prospects to judge the future and then there's resigning Shelton who likes to stick those aging veterans on the field till their oil starts leaking all over the place just like Clint used to do.
Most pitchers want more years than what Keller got because age 32 will be the next time he can be a free agent. He sacrificed some years as I think the Pirates $77m total is fair market price. $5m this year, $12m for his aribitration year, $20m a year totals $77m. That seems fair to me, even though I haven't seen the breakdown yet.
Will they try to extend Cruz next? Something like 6 for $50mil with a 2 year option for $80mil.
I would like to see them give Skenes a Chourio-type contract offer, even though I'm not sure he would take it.
Me too!
I wanted the Pirates to extend Cruz 6 months ago. I'm sure the price has shot up significantly.
At this point, I would like to see him prove he is back to himself again, especially since running is a big part of his game.
I'm in the wait and see category myself, just thinking of starting points. My base that I think he would go for is something like 6 years at $7mil AAV with 2 option years each year has a $4mil buyout. The 2 options would be around $20mil each.
If he breaks out this year, it would go up a lot.
That’s not a risk I’m willing to take. This is a conservative position that could backfire, but the Pirates still have no idea if Cruz is going to be back to his pre-injury self. Further, his pre-injury self, while electrifying, had some serious flaws both at the plate and in the field. I’m waiting on this one, and hope for the good problem of having him play at an all-star level.
Totally valid way to look at it. I'm sorta in that boat of wait and see. The gamble is if he has a breakout. He's got 2 more pre-arb years to set his arbitration price so there's time. With a breakout that number raises fast though.
Yes... but players like Cruz, if he breaks out, have actual value on the trade market in their final arbitration years, unlike some of the guys that the Pirates have tried to peddle in the past. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat and get value from players. No one knows if Cruz will be able to play SS adequately this year, let alone 5 years in the future. I am just not sure that he a is a guy that you want to build around, especially with the Pirates insisting that he play SS. Now if you were to move him to 3B or even CF, and he could play CF well, then that would be something you would want to consider nailing down to a longer term deal if the bat is as advertised.
I wish they would have been giving him time in center field since they acquired him.
With his toolset, he should have been out there since the complex league. A CF who can fly and hit like Cruz has potential to hit is worth gold, but these are the Pirates.
I was able to catch a game in Charleston WV right after he came over in 2017. He looked so out of place at shortstop, more his body and height rather than motions. He could still flat out fly and of course his cannon of an arm stood out. I thought he was sure to be ticketed for center field.
It's a lot less than Hayes deal. The only way it gets close to Hayes if the options are picked up, only buying out 1 free agent year on a guarantee.
Sorry I deleted the post once I reread your original post that stated the same point I was trying to make!
No problem
$17M in new money AAV for Keller. Way more than Key and BRey AAV. Kinda surprised, but good to see Bob is dealing with the SP market.
I think it's $15.4 million in AAV.
Yes, except that he had agreed to ~$5.5MM for next year, so '79 is noting that the extension is more like ~$18MM over the four following years. I think it's actually a bit of an overpay, but after our lack of success in signing FAs this winter, a necessary overpay. And as a fan, I mostly care about being able to watch a pitcher that I've been rooting for for awhile.
Yes, I thought it was a bit of an overpay too. We just need "good Keller" to show up every 5th day.
I see what you both are saying. I'm just glad they got it done.
If his consistency increases it could be a bargain.
Is Ke'Bryan's walk up music "Purple Haze"? If not it should be.
This organization is scared to death to commit for more than one year to players outside the organization, but take the polar opposite approach to players inside the organization.
Glass half full or half empty? You tell me.
BTW, congrats to Mitch Keller. Happy to have you signed sealed and delivered for years to come.
Not here to piss in anyone's cheerios but I still maintain this is just awful organizational management.
All they're doing is locking in the same losing core for a couple extra post-peak years. They've somehow managed to commit almost $200m without actually *adding* any talent. Truly incredible mismanagement.
A smart club that wasn't governed by a rent-seeking owner would've extended the Musgrove's and Marte's they inherited so they could take advantage of the cheap/free years from the guys they're now extending.
As-is, these are the guys plus what's left of a vastly diminished farm system you're gonna see through the end of the decade. That's it. No chance of outside reinforcements in any substantial sense.
Good luck.
The only one of these contracts that should really bog them down is Reynolds. You need some pieces to anchor around. Keller his price and Hayes at his seem fine. I am still not sold on Hayes being consistently what he appeared to be at the end of last season, but if he is, that contract is golden.
The Hayes contract is great, no doubt
It’s great and I think everyone knows there is more to get out of him, as opposed to Keller and Reynolds. Because we’ve seen the bat and he has some good traits. It’s a question of health and consistency.
According to the news there's worse things in Cheerios than that apparently...
Of the three extensions that happened recently- Hayes, Reynolds, Keller, I'd rate them as follows on a scale of 1-10:
Hayes- 9. AAV of just north of 8. Bought out 3 to 4 free agency years. Covers all of his prime, and only a couple years, at most, of his decline. Risk he can pound the ball into he ground too much to be a good hitter, but with defense and EV, still worth the AAV. And if his launch angle improvement is legit, he has a chance to be a really good player.
Keller- 6. AAV of around 18 after this year. Not a real bargain, but not an overpay if he just pitches like an average starter. I mean, it's fine. But not something to over celebrate.
Reynolds- 2.5- There was no need to extend him as the Pirates controlled him through his age 30 season. He's a good, but nowhere near great player, and about to hit his decline years. They'll be paying him 15 million at ages 33-35. Not a big sunk cost to most teams, but the Pirates.... I neve got this one and often advocated against it when lots of fans were #extendreynolds
Yeah... not a fan the Reynolds extension and wasn't at the time. I wanted them to trade him, but Cherington kept making these ridiculous statement about what the Pirates wanted in exchange, which was way above market for 3 arbitration years of a 3-3.5 WAR player.
I was more upset that Reynolds signs a contract, then asks for a trade because he wants a longerm contract in something like year 3.
Locking in mediocrity. Imagine that.
Has it occurred to anybody that this is just a variant on NH’s “plan?” His idea was to assemble a roster of cheap 1- to 2-WAR players with 4-5 YOC, and hope enough guys had career years now and then to push them into pseudo-contention. Is this any different?
It's a conservative* approach--GMs don't stand to get nearly the criticism for extensions that don't work as they do for FA signings that don't work. So in that way, it fits with this FO's MO.
I like the extensions though, but you're right that if we don't bring in new talent, we're unlikely to be a serious contender for championships.
*Though not as conservative as not spending anything.
A core of Hayes, Reynolds and Keller at their salary commitments is somewhere around a third of their max payroll capacity. Maybe even closer to 40%. So yes, no reinforcements. This year the Braves have Murphy, Acuna and Albies on the books for about the same figure. Yes. Good luck.
Those three together are at 40% of their payroll right now. FG has them at 91 mil and they’re at 34.6. They’re not at their max.
Also, they have nearly 31 mil coming off the books in 24 with all the 1 year commits. Ideally some of those can be replaced if any of the young guys take a step up.
Excuse me I stand corrected. I had Hayes at $10 MM. $38 MM of $115 MM is 33%. $35 MM of $115 MM is 30%. I also have questions if they’ll spend to $115 MM.
My point still stands though. Your $31 MM coming off the books is always going to be an ever present issue with arbitration raises, needing to plug holes etc. If past is prologue, they’d use that $31 MM spread around 6-7 crummy players anyways. And is there money for further extensions, say Oneil Cruz? Doubt it. They are trying to play a Cardinals strategy on a Rays budget: Hayes and Reynolds are your Goldy and Arenado, Keller is your Wainwright.
Your overall point holds water, for sure. There are substantial questions as to whether they’ll spend to 115-120 for more than three months before Nutting panics and forces a Liriano 2.0 trade on BC.
I think it all depends on what happens internally with pre-arb guys. If guys like Cruz and Davis bust out and we’re looking at a 10 win jump in 24, most of that 30 mil comes off the roster and can be backfilled with those pre-arb players who (ideally) are contributors. They “could” then spend some of the money saved on short term FAs, rather than the hoopdi FAs that are Grandal. A FO has to be dexterous to pull that off though, and these guys move slow.
It’s fair to ask if there is money for Cruz. It probably means Bednar will be traded (not that I advocate an extension for him in any way).
“There are substantial questions as to whether they’ll spend to 115-120 for more than three months before Nutting panics and forces a Liriano 2.0 trade on BC.“
Yes! And there’s a substantial amount of risk in Keller’s game (IMO) that could force a Liriano 2.0.
Of course I agree a lot of the success in this model hinges on some of the prospects and also some guys like Cruz and Davis establishing themselves. But is it sustainable beyond the 2-3 year run we had last time? I’m skeptical on both counts. They seem to like their prospects a lot more than the writers and their colleagues in the industry. And a longer window means establishing a solid minor league pipeline, which they’ve yet to demonstrate.
I definitely agree with the part about not bringing in any new talent. However, it seems contradictory when you say they should’ve locked in Marte and Musgrove to take advantage of Keller, Hayes, Reynolds, et al while they were cheap. Can’t a case be made that’s exactly what they’re doing now?
Yep, just with lesser pieces IMO. Huge missed opportunity.
Read that article yesterday and with all the details about player development and the like the clear message is the same one every Pirate fan knows all too well; Nutting's unwillingness to spend money. His insistence that any improvement in the team has to come from within remains one of his many excuses for not spending on free agents and that's not likely to translate into a contending team these days particularly when opponents are doing it. Does he get credit for signing Hayes, Reynolds and Keller? Certainly, he does but even that money will most likely be wasted unless does more than that.
Maybe, just maybe, if prospects develop more and the team looks to be on the verge of contending he might become willing to spend some to fill holes, but that remains to be seen. The guy's an albatross around the neck of Pittsburgh baseball, but unfortunately there's not much of anything that can be done about it other than to keep pointing it out in the hope he might actually start to care.
Plenty of teams don’t spend tons of money. The Pirates aren’t alone there: Guardians, A’s, Rays, Reds. Choosing to do so ineptly is another matter.
TA to the marlins, but hes no alika williams so
Yes.. I still didn't get the Pirates fit for providing a starting SS for them. Peggy was closest among the rumors but he hasn't even proven he can win the 2B job for the Pirates yet, why would the Marlins just plug him in at SS as a starter. Alika types can be found on waivers unless they believe in his short hitting outburst in AAA last year. Cabrera trade could still happen but I think it would be them adding to their prospect pool, not filling an immediate MLB need (outside of possible bullpen).
5 Year Extension for Keller! (Jeff Passan)
Awesome news! I was hoping that with Cherington implying that prices were too high to acquire impact FA pitching this offseason, the logical conclusion would be to extend Keller even if it was a much bigger commitment than they had made to a pitcher previously. Good for him, and good for Keller.
Someone call Nesbitt and tell him to keep cranking out the articles
Ok just so everyone is clear on this misconception, there’s absolutely no way BN gave BC the go ahead to negotiate an extension for Keller yesterday. This deal has been cooking for a whole lot longer than that. Purely coincidental it gets completed the day after the Nesbitt article.
Yes. However, it's also entirely possible the Nesbitt article has been brewing for weeks, and the BN/Pirates FO knew about it.
Sure, probably. But they might have been slightly apart on terms then Ebenezer Nutting phones BC and cries uncle. That’s more interesting, anyway.
Conspiracy theories always are more interesting.
That was one of the comments on the Athletic. The other I liked was a poster saying “this is the most ‘hey, look over there’s move ever.”
Before FA began i suggested 4/$65 + $20m option year to make it 5/$85. Lots of folks telling me I was waaayyyy underestimating. Looks like my math wasn't all that bad
He’s getting Pablo Lopez money and Lopez is a true one, perhaps an Ace, Mitch is not there yet, still profiling as a strong 3, perhaps a slight over pay, but in line with how every other mid rotation starter has gotten this off season.
That’s good receipt keeping!
Sept. 27, 2023 - What does an extension look like for Keller?
2 more Arbitration years left. Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber & Brandon Woodruff each got ~10mil for their Arb3 year. Couldn't find a comparable SP for Arb4, so lets just call that ~15mil. So essentially 2 years, 25-30mil left on his "current contract".
I found 2 comparable SP, Arb Extensions - Kyle Freeland (5/$65, bought out 4 FA years) & Logan Webb (5/$90, 3 FA years). Both have been better than Keller over their careers, but we're hoping Keller's last season+ has put him at their level.
Here's what I propose: 4 years, $65 million + 5th year option that can bring it to 5/$85. 16.25mil AAV w a $20 mil option year.
That gets a nod of approval.
Their "big" moves this off-season have been quite interestingly timed lol
Surprised they didnt sit on this until opening weekend
Nut's transition lenses cleared up as he read that article yesterday and decided now was the time. Just my opinion.
Nutting can read? I thought he only knew his numbers.
Sources say he is dyslexic. So when he spends 12 million on someone he thinks he actually spent 21 million. It's more common than you think. It mainly affects 1-3rd graders.
Yeah, just like the Chapman signing immediately followed the Bob interview lol
MOAR ARTICLES, MOAR INTERVIEWS, MOAR MONEY
His ass is mute for another 2 years now. Took a vow of silence. On a meditation retreat at Seven Springs. New owners gave him a discount. That's what my sources say. They are different than Bmac's.
Good shit 5/77
3 FA years and through age 32
He’s already under contract this year, wouldn’t it be one more arb year and four FA years?
I think I saw that the contract is set to start immediately (so including this upcoming year) but i could definitely be wrong
It seems like we're paying roughly $20MM per year for those three FA years. I'm super glad we're doing it. Now, let's be open to making that kind of commitment to actual FA pitchers--there were a bunch of interesting pitchers in that ~$20MM AAV price range that signed for similar years.
But again, I'm just happy that we'll keep Keller.
I wonder if Bellinger would sign for something very close to this. I’m glad it went to Mitch, but can’t help to wonder.
That's interesting to consider. Sticking to the same position, the Dbacks signed Eduardo Rodriguez for $20MM AAV over four years and the Cubs' deal with Imanaga has an AAV of only about $13MM over four years; though there was also the posting fee. Rodriguez and Imanaga ranked 11th and10th in MLBTR's FA rankings.
If Keller's deal is an indication that we're willing to spend at that level despite the inherent risk with pitchers, it's a great sign. If it simply is a one-off, possibly even to stem off criticism about their disappointing offseason, then I'm still happy but less optimistic about our future than if we, as NMR points out, also made a similar commitment to bring in new talent.
If so, that’s a good length for the team, not so much for him, unless is 5 FA years.
Important detail on Woodruff is that he had shoulder surgery in October and may not pitch at all in 2024, so it's mostly a 2025-2026 deal. The really odd part (and feel free to compare/contrast with how the pirates might have approached this) is the $10M buyout of the mutual option in 2026 -- basically guaranteeing a pitcher with shoulder issues $10M minimum in 2026. The brewers probably have solid intel on the shoulder, or really good insurance. Would the pirates sign a free-agent to a deal like this -- $2.5M to not pitch this year but be signed for 2025? Unlikely.
Nor should they. Shoulder injuries are often career killers.
I think the Brewers are absorbing a ton of risk with Woodruff and Sanchez. I know I’d be first in line to criticize BC if he did this for Pirates.
Well... he may have insurance on the deal, but I tend to agree with you. It seems risky for a team with their budget.
Problems cited as "the draft and getting players acclimated to the majors" is hard for me to understand. The Pirates are absolutely loaded with excellent prospects who we have drafted and developed over the past 4 or 5 years. Of our top 4 infielders to start 2024, 2 were drafted by the Pirates (Hayes and Triolo) and 2 are IFA's who we got in Trades (Cruz and Peguero). Hayes and Triolo have been fully developed by the Pirates and Cruz and Peguero were almost fully developed by the Pirates. In our OF Suwinski and Reynolds were received in Trades, but their development was finalized by the Pirates - IIRC they both came as AA players. Henry Davis drafted and fully developed by the Pirates to date, and Endy Rodriguez (injured) an IFA in trade almost fully developed by the Pirates.
In the last 4 or 5 years the Pirates have drafted and developed pitching that is the envy of the other 29 MLB teams. We have others drafted early - Gonzales is a good example of a player who has issues, but is still working at getting better. With the infield set (IMO), and TJ to be at AA in 2024, Gonzales at age 25 needs to be used possibly in a trade to help get this team a CF. Possibly the same with Bae, but he is a VG leadoff hitter with base stealing speed, and can also play CF. Gorski is another example, but I doubt he has any trade value at this point.
I just love reading your posts Emjay!! I really enjoy your optimistic outlook. You are a very nice breath of fresh air!!!!!
So much of this is exaggeration because you refuse to see anything other than through rose-colored glasses. Of those four infielders, only one is really proven in the majors. Cruz, Peggy, and Triolo have talent, sure, but they’re. It established, productive major leaguers.
Truth is probably somewhere between you two.
What’s not open for debate is the fact none of the Pirates prospects have ever hit the ground running under BC like we often see with other organizations. Hayes may have been the outlier if it wasn’t for injuries.
If we just use your examples. Hayes hitting success in the majors has been largely attributed (in various accounts) to a coach now no longer in the organization. Triolo's success in 209 MLB PAs is heavily weighted by an unsustainable 440 BABIP. Cruz is TBD, as he only has 410 career PAs at this point and we still don't know what he is . Peguero only has 217 PAs, so he's TBD. Reynolds had an electric debut of 3.5 fWAR in 2019, ballooned up to 6.0 fWAR in 2021 after a poor covid season, then has decreased each year after: 2.8 fWAR in 2022 and 2.3 fWAR in 2023. Jack, I'd call a success. But we'll see if he replicates, adds on to, or falls this season. Endy is out for the year, so we won't get a feeling on his progress. Then Davis, we'll see how this year goes.
So, through all that, what all have "they" developed? They're hanging their hats on a bench bat, a couple maybe regulars, and list of TBD's?
They "developed/fixed" Keller, I guess, but even that is questionable as to how much of it was the Pirates versus Tread Athletics. I'd say Oviedo is a success, but again, he's relatively TBD since he's out for a year and we won't find out if it continued or progressed. Mlodzinski looks great, there's that, but still gotta see with his sophomore season.
Bednar. There's Bednar. Acquired and developed an elite closer.
I watched the NS9 podcast with Nesbitt last night, and the thing that stuck out the most to me was his recount from a player that wasn't included in the story. A former pitcher saying if it's August, and he just can't find his stuff, who does he go to? All the Pirates have are kids that say "get 2 more inches of ride and you're good to go", but no one to tell/teach him HOW to get those 2 inches. Much like everything that was said about Nunnally, there's no intermediary. There's a kid telling them WHAT they need to do, but no one that can actually teach them what to do. So, I think about Keller's mid-season road bump. Is this an issue that arises because of this? Jack disappearing for a month's time. Alex Stumpf had an article yesterday with Roansy detailing how he "just couldn't find his mechanics all season". ALL SEASON.
When the story broke about Roansy staying in Seattle to go do Driveline last year, that was my biggest question mark. Not that he was getting outside assistance, but that he HAD to go to an outside facility, mid-season, to find himself. That, I feel, is one of the biggest indictments of this team. Sure, they let kids go to Driveline, Tread, etc. in the off-season to improve, but what happens once they step on Pirates dirt? What happens when their mechanics get a little off? What happens when they hit a rough patch? The Nick Gonzales struggles itself doesn't help their case, as a lot of us here have been calling out his swing-and-miss issues since his Greensboro days with no sign of improvement.
I didn't read the article.
I'm really not sure what to think of their development.
They have guys like Reynolds who was a 45 FV and he's a clear W in the dev department
Suwisnski was a 40 FV, another W for their dev
Keller is a W
Hayes is a W
Connor Joe had a career year last season with 2 WAR. dude was a FV 40
Bednar is absolutely a W
I could site other examples as well, but what's the sense
citing Driveline kinda looks like an excuse as players throughout the league use places like that.
I think good talented players pan out and other don't. Henry Davis was a flawed player when he was drafted and we're seeing those flaws. Combine his flaw and being rushed to the majors clearly disrupted his development.
Guys like Ro, Ortiz and Priester were all guys that flashed velo never seen before during the pandemic. They're just not built to sustain. Nick G was overvalued during the draft, he didn't face big arms in college. Sometimes it's ok to call a spade a spade...Nick was an over draft and he sucks. He can't identify spin. Somethings you can't teach.
You're dead-on here, Catch.
No the current Pittsburgh Pirates aren't an elite dev org nor is John Baker the kind of mensch that certain outlets no longer in business made him out to be, but neither are they some kind of abysmal failure. The Pirates are firmly in the meaty part of the bell curve.
Exactly and that's all I'm saying. I'm not applauding them, nor do I think they're as bad as the current narrative out there.
If I ignore the fact that we still have a 5th year Manager-in-Training, or that we have done little to date to resolve the gaps at 1B and CF, I do appreciate the fact they are on the upward swing!
Sometimes it's ok to call a spade a spade, such as the Pirates dev team. A lot of the arguments derive from what are the metrics for determining a "W"? A prospect making the majors? Becoming a regular? Reaching potential? Exceeding potential?
Do you also include in relation to rest of league? And how does one personally weigh that?
It's just feels like a cop out saying, "Oh, they were just overvalued". Well, there's still an issue there. Whether it's the scouting or dev team.
Good f*cking God, you're a parrot.
I just listed a bunch of guys that exceeded potential.
I mostly just find it funny how for example you can have the Braves draft a Spencer Strider in the 4th round, develop him into a 5+ fWAR Cy Young candidate, but we're supposed to applaud the Pirates FO and dev team for developing ONE 2 WAR backend starter going into their 5th season? Even giving them credit for Keller, one middle rotation arm and one backend starter (Oviedo). 3rd rounder Michael Harris Jr. into a 4+ fWAR player, but applaud the Pirates for wins on what would be role or bench players on any other competitive club? Orioles churning out 2+ WAR hitters like nobody's business, hitting a homerun in 2019 on Gunnar (a once 40+/45 FV prospect) in the second round without even including Adley.
And yes, everyone uses Driveline, but in the Pirates case, it's appearing that they RELY on facilities like Driveline to develop their players.
"Bunch of guys". You listed 3 in-house and 3 outside acquisitions (with regards to this regime), in 5 years. I'm not a parrot, you just have a really low bar for a "W". Tossing aside anyone who fails/struggles as, "Well, they just weren't good to begin with. It's not their fault."
The Atlanta Braves at one point had *TEN* Top 100 pitching prospects in their org and managed to develop just one of them, Max Fried, into an above average pitcher.
Absolutely abysmal track record.
Pointing to Strider as proof of developmental pitching success is like lauding the Angels for elite hitting development because they have Mike Trout.
Who is applauding them?
Driveline, driveline, driveline, driveline, driveline, dri...
Honest question, is there no good way to teach the ability to identify spin? I guess I always assumed that could be learned but maybe not as much as I thought
Trouble with the curve, my man.
True. That movie sucked though.
They could've picked a better actor for Bo Gentry. What GM is selecting a high school body like that @ 1-2? 18-year-olds that look like that do not age well at all. Also, Timberlake doesn't exactly come across as a former phenom pitcher.
Three quick thoughts Nola, one is that it's hard to develop players properly when you throw 'service time' in as a factor in their development, then you're not signing quality free agents to compete and signing aging once successful veterans hoping they regain their youth instead of playing your top prospects to judge the future and then there's resigning Shelton who likes to stick those aging veterans on the field till their oil starts leaking all over the place just like Clint used to do.
Well, but arguing service time just means you're spending MORE time developing.
Not necessarily.
This is true. I was thinking we are well into another two decades of losing but then I remembered they squeaked out a winning record in 2018, lol.
MOAR DEVELOP
Man, I wish I shared your optimism/ point of view of the Pirates.
It's my daily dose of alternate reality and I love it.
I just look at the Braves and pretend the Pirates can develop talent and have their team look like that in two years. Lol.
Then I wake up.
On the hitting side at least. They suck at developing pitchers.