64 Comments

In terms of building the team, I would prefer the approach of scouring strong systems for guys who are blocked and trying to pick up promising players in trades. I am so tired of the mediocre vet approach. Even Ryan O’Hearn —- he was so bad with the Royals. I don’t know what magic potion the Orioles gave him, but I fear that if the Pirates pick him up he’ll fall off a cliff.

The early returns from Cook and Yorke are encouraging, though admittedly there’s only one game at the major league level. I’d like to see them do more of this.

No more mediocre vets!

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Mediocre vets would be an upgrade.

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Bucs need to go 14-5 to break .500 this year.

Looking at next year:

C: Bart and Endy? Davis and Delay bubbling under.

1B: Cook, Tellez and Joe

2B: Gonzalez

SS: IKF

3B: Hayes

Utility: Triolo and York

OF: BRey, O'Cruz, BDLC with MAT and York and Gorski bubbling under

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Rotation: Keller, Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Harrington

with Ashcraft, Burrows, Falter, M.Gonzales, Ortiz and Oviedo bubbling under

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Bullpen: Depending on the condition and status of Bednar and Chapman first and foremost. However, you've got Holderman, Mlod, Nicolas, Santana with Heller and Moreta bubbling under... and Borucki?

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And, I know they are in AA, but (kiss of death here, says the big fan of Cannan Smith-Njigba) Emmanual Chapman and Nick Dombkowski have been good when I've seen them.

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My #1 target this off-season would be working the phones with Mike Hazen on a deal for Pavin Smith. Although, they might want to keep him with Walker being a FA.

Rowdy really isn't the worst fall-back plan. Obvious he made an adjustment prior to the Jays series at the end of May.

June - 155 wRC+

July - 141 wRC+

Aug - 122 WRC+

I understand you can't cherry pick and ignore what he did in April-May, but again, there was an adjustment and it's clearly working. Not advocating, but you could do much worse than Rowdy.

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Either Ryan O’Hearn or Lamont Wade would be my targets. O’Hearn feels like an easy choice because Baltimore has Mayo waiting in the wings.

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Man, Ryan O'Hearn. I'm curious.

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Same. I’d like them to target a guy with more than one year of control, but either of those guys on one year deals look like a boost to this offense.

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You have to ignore more than two months. There’s also the rest of his career.

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He's hit a fair bit over his head since June (+32 actual wOBA vs expected) buuuuut April-May is very obviously the outlier in the context of his career. xwOBA of .340 or more in three of his last four years.

Now I think it's perfectly reasonable not to be whelmed by a 110 wRC+ first baseman, but nonetheless.

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Except that his overall numbers for this year fall almost perfectly inline with his career numbers (except for a blip up on both .avg and BABIP), and he is a 96 wRC+ this season, and 99 for his career. His season numbers also fall almost perfectly inline with projections, and his season numbers (again except for a blip up on .avg and BABIP) are almost identical to his numbers last season in the same number of ABs. He is who he is, and he is remarkably consistent over time. He is below replacemnt level according to Fangraphs this year and barely above for his career.

Trying to isolate 2 months of his career and say that is who is going to be going forward is not a good idea. Is Hayes going to be the same guy that he was for 2 months last year? Is Suwinski? If the Pirates could get every guy on the roster to emulate the best 2 months of their careers they would have a very good team. They will not, however, and Tellez will be what he has always been: a replacement level or below 1Bman who drags the whole team down with his bonehead plays and lack of hustle.

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Is it lack of hustle or maybe it’s that he’s actually trying and just shouldn’t be playing the field?

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"drags the whole team down with his bonehead plays and lack of hustle."

My God is that a childish and immature statement.

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Says the incarnation of childish and immature. The adults are trying to have a conversation about baseball... . Take your Tourette's syndrome show someone else for a while... .

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Awe, look at you. How sweet.

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i think we know when to and when not to engage...

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It's the lack of hustle. Dude is the biggest unit I've ever seen wear a Pirates uni. Yes, bigger than Vogelbach.

Tellez could bust it out of the box at max effort and it's going to look like he's running in quicksand.

Drags the whole team down - I don't know, but he seems like an affable guy that the players all like.

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I'm saying that could be moot with the adjustment made at the end of May.

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I feel like the bullpen and not just handing BDLC the RF spot are priorities. If Rowdy is the left side 1B platoon again, maybe it's not ideal, but we're clearly never going to be ideal at all positions. I am at a total loss as to what happens at 3B...if Key can't get right, that extension is an albatross at a position where we can't afford to get zero offensive production these next couple years.

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Agreed but if Hayes’ contract is an albatross, then God help them because they’ll never have a chance.

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My hope for 1B is that Endy is our LH bat there. I still want him to catch, but Bart has been so good that there just aren't going to be enough ABs at C and I'd rather Endy get time at 1B than DH (2B could be an option but with Yorke and Gonzales there, I think we have it covered). Or maybe Endy becomes an option in RF?

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Endy doesn’t hit nearly enough at 1B. He didn’t hit enough as a catcher.

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Yeah I think we need to pump the brakes on expecting big things with Endy’s bat. It’s damn hard to catch at the MLB level. You add together catching and playing multiple positions? Even harder. His EV/barrel/hard hit numbers do not look great (not that it’s the end all). I’m inclined to think the bat doesn’t play at a corner position.

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I'm wanting to see if the added weight Endy put on translates in the power department. He had several Willie Mays Hayes shots in 2023, 15 extra feet and he would've had a few to several more homeruns. In one game he hit 3 warning track flyouts. Kinda joking, kinda serious lol

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Fully serious! Kid came up barely past his 23rd birthday and by no means appeared to be physically mature.

I'd be bullish on Endy entering his mid-20s.

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I tend to agree. I know he's only had ~200 plate appearances so far, and I still believe in the guy for sure...but with the Hayes issue on the other side, you can't have almost zero power at both corner infield spots.

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I think that's to be determined. As he progressed up the minors, his OPS values were .892 (A), .936 (A+), 1.120 (AA), and .803 (AAA). The AAA value may be a bit of a concern, but to hit that well while also developing as a catcher seems impressive.

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Yet to be determined, but highly unlikely. Hope isn’t a strategy. As we’ve seen with just about everyone making the jump from AAA to the majors, the gap is huge. Endy didn’t hit well and should go back to Indy next year to re-establish himself.

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I don't know if he has much to prove in Indy and I think he's got to get major league ABs, though giving him a month or two in Indy may be necessary depending on how much winter ball he plays.

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Why would you take the best defensive catcher in the system and move him to another position?

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What are you going to do with Bart? He may not continue to be our best hitter, but when you can get anything close to the kind of production he's been giving us out of the catcher position, it creates so much potential to have a plus offense.

Endy at 1B isn't ideal, it's just about fitting him in to accommodate Bart.

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Endy's calling card is the glove behind the dish. He loses virtually all value playing 1b

Bart's calling card is power over hit, but not enough to 1B.

Neither are a viable option at 1b, but they could make an excellent 1-2 at C.

I think a lot of folks are forgetting, Endy was a top 15 prospect in all of baseball.

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I should have been more clear that he'd still catch, but with Bart having earned most of the starts, Endy would get most of his at 1B. Maybe Bart will come back to earth, but he's been our best hitter (133 wRC+, for example) and for now he has to be considered our primary C.

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Fair enough. Sounds like they have a good problem on their hands.

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Oneil Cruz since June 1st...

-2.6 fWAR

-.289 BA

-.346 OBP

-.491 SLG

-126 wRC+

Highjacked from an FG article on Lindor. Nonetheless, those are very good to excellent #'s.

Personally, when I look at this, I'm looking at 2025 as a breakout season.

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Very high on Cruz. Moving off shortstop and getting his feet underneath him in CF might help his numbers as well.

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One month to the day since he hit his last home run.

wRC+ before: 113

wRC+ now: 113

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And you were saying......drought over

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BOOM!

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He's turned into a doubles machine. A little increase in launch will go all long ass ways.

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As bad as the O has been this year, if they finish strong, they have a real shot at being middle of the pack on a RPG basis.

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I'm guessing they'll give Cook a nice run here and see if he makes Joe redundant. Sept stats and all, Joe will be arb eligible, and Cook will be playing for league min.

From what I saw yesterday, he gets his hacks in and likes to swing.

Super impressed with Jones, really utilized the CB effectively. With 98+ heat with high spin, combined with a curve and slider, he really has a nice foundation. The key is maintaining that command.

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I'd put Cook out there most days with the exception of starters that command the top of the zone. Only area I've noticed more swing and miss on fastballs and offspeed. I haven't looked at the data so I may be wrong.

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One of my pet peeves in years of coaching and watching this sport was Strikeouts. Nothing good happens when a batter strikes out. Slash and OPS are the things we tend to look at first, but when evaluating hitters, always include a look at the K/BB numbers. Putting the ball in play more often leads to more runs. And always take into consideration the number of HR, because HR hitters get a slight pass because of the runs created by those HR's. Here's the worst to first list of Strikeouts to Walks, with the number of (HR). SSS for some, but If these numbers do not improve, the Pirates cannot win!

Some surprises, and it is interesting that the people with the most HR are almost all in the group of hitters who have the Best K/BB Rates! This is where GM's need to pay attention.

BDLC 18/1 K/BB (1 HR)

IKF 9/1 K/BB (1 HR)

Williams 7/1 K/BB (0 HR)

McKinney 6.5/1 K/BB (0 HR)

Gonzales 5.3/1 K/BB (5 HR)

Taylor 4.8/1 K/BB (5 HR)

Cruz 4.1/1 K/BB (18 HR)

Bae 4/1 K/BB (0 HR)

Hayes 3.3/1 K/BB (4 HR)

Tellez 3.1/1 K/BB (13 HR)

Bart 3.0/1 K/BB (13 HR)

Suwinski 2.9/1 K/BB (9 HR)

Reynolds 2.7/1 K/BB (22 HR)

Triolo 2.4/1 K/BB (7 HR)

Cutch 2.3/1 K/BB (19 HR)

Joe 2.1/1 K/BB (9 HR)

Grandal 2.0 K/BB (7 HR)

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I get your thought process but I think two of your assumptions IMO need reworded to reflect not only the state of baseball but also what a lot of the new metrics suggest are true. My attempt working backwards from your post: Homerun hitters get a HUGE pass because of the immediate runs created and putting the ball in play can create more runs but not at the expense of hitting the ball hard. I do fully agree with your valuation of walks. if you aren't hitting a homerun, getting on base is the next best thing.

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I'm interested in Mel and SouthernBuc's exchange here.

The thing that jumps right out at me is the particular cases of Jack Suwinsky and Jared Triolo sitting in the same neighborhood with BRey but with much different HR numbers, perhaps based on number of at bats or just quality at bats, I don't know.

I always assumed Cutch had the best eye on the team but was surprised to see Pappy Grandal and Connor Joe in the same class.

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Ski is a HR swinger, Triolo is more of a contact hitter who at 6'3" can possibly develop into a 15+ HR player if he is a regular, but I do not see him as a regular. His value is his glove and stepping in and playing as well or better than the player he is replacing. Did it at 3B last year and again at 3B in 2024. His play at 2B is also very high caliber. Like the adjustments he has made in his swing - he still has some room to grow with that swing, but he is going in the right direction. Find that instructor that told him to raise his hands above his head in the ready position and fire that dumbass!

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You aren't wrong if you get into the details!

Cutch far and away leads the team in chase rate at just 21%. Not just passive, either, with a zone swing rate right at league average.

Cutch, Professional Hitter (TM)

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Even Ben knows that his rebuild hasn't gone as well as it needs to (from yesterday's interview, as reported in the PG):

“I think we’re improving,” Cherington said. “Also we’re not improving by enough yet — and not fast enough. I think all of that is true. "

This is all many of us have been saying--we should be farther along in year five. Of course the question is what does he (or Nutting/Williams) plan to do about it?

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Admitting it is half the battle. As you point out, doing actually something is the other half. My question is this: is admitting they should be further along enough of an impetus to spur some major change in how they operate? Or does he merely thinks he needs to move the deck furniture around?

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It will be interesting to see. When they hired Sarah Gelles last winter, I took that as an acknowledgement that they needed additional expertise and fresh perspectives in the FO. Now that she's been on board for most of a year, I expect that some of her ideas will begin to be implemented and there will be some significant changes to minor league and analytics staff, mostly changing out people that we know very little about for people that we know even less about :).

Maybe behind-the-scenes changes will be enough, but I think we need bigger changes. What I'd do is promote Cherington to president (not that he's earned a promotion), hire Gelles or someone from the outside as GM, and let that GM evaluate Shelton and his staff. Cherington might be okay as a big-picture guy as long as someone else is overseeing the details.

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Hmm. This is very insightful and you might be on to something here. Cherington seems like a big ideas guy, but poor on management skills. Personally I’d rather see him fired, but letting him be a big picture guy and bringing someone in to run day to day might yield some results. I was fan of the Gelles hire, and I’d certainly be ok with elevating her in some fashion. The history with the Astros and Orioles that she has is critical IMO: she’s as well positioned as anyone to tell us what’s missing, giving the high level positions she’s held amongst the 3 organizations.

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I’ve been under the assumption for years that most of the successful teams have a president and GM with a baseball background. Not some bean counter like Williams.

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The management system they set up does seem kind of clunky. First you had FC, who basically thought he was a baseball operations guy. Now you have Williams, who basically has the title but not the authority, and BC technically reports to him. I agree it’s odd.

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I think I'd prefer Ben being fired too, but if Nutting still believes it was a good hire, then moving him into the president's role while creating a new role for Williams might be more likely. And we need a baseball person in the president's role.

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Williams could effectively keep his role because it sounds like he’s basically cut out of baseball operations already. His title belies what he actually does, which is basically something equivalent to a sales/finance/legal manager.

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That's the part of an interview that will never be uttered aloud. Many GM's will not want to give away their plans for the offseason for fear it might drive up the asking prices. But anybody around MLB knows where the Pirates are at and where they need to get to in order to be competitive for an entire season. It's only BC who thinks it's a secret!

Glad to see Cook brought up - still with a lineup including MAT and Alika Williams? Get serious about trying to set a direction for 2025. Get Jack Suwinski back up, Peguero, and Yorke also, and then maybe we can look like we are trying to set a course for being better in 2025. Lots of upgrade in Pitching and we are not even including SP Johan Oviedo or RP Dauri Moreta in most of the conversations. The potential is there if the ownership wants it. And yes, of course, a future not including Derek Shelton. We need a little edge to a Manager - something like all of the other teams in the NL Central have right now!

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Yes, he couldn't answer that but given that he recognizes the problem, it adds some intrigue about the offseason.

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I would keep Suwinski in Indy because he's just starting to come out of his year long slump. He's hitting the ball better recently and I think it'll be better for his long-term outlook to finish the season on a positive. If he comes up and struggles or just doesn't get enough at bats does him no good.

He needs everyday at bats and to regain some confidence and be looking to 2025.

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Jack’s had hot stretches before but the underlying problems didn’t go away. I’d want way more than one good month in AAA before trying him again.

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I'm not sure, can they send him to the AFL?

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Send him to the mexican league to hitting all of the breaking balls

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