47 Comments

Oof, Lonnie with another 0-fer.

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Any updates on Roansy?

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MLB.com has a piece on bat speed. Cruz is second among all hitters in avg bat speed. (Nobody is close to Stanton.). He still has the highest recorded EV ever from 2022. His 119.7 mph double the other day is second this year to Stanton’s 119.9.

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May 15·edited May 15

Here's an outlier Cruz characteristic; what's up with that slug of weak swings in the 65-70mph bracket?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/bat-speed-distribution?playerIds=665833&years=2024&type=batter&sides=L&playerTypes=batter&lockScale=1&scaleType=percent&yAxis=swings_percent

Intentionally taking some off to protect w/ 2 strikes? Or uncompetitive swings?

Most dudes seem to have a pretty consistent distribution like the league avg line implies.

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Definitely the 2 strike thing but also i think I've seen him guess at early pitches and recognize slightly too late that it's breaking down off the plate. His mind wants to lay off them but his body already committed and he just finishes the swing casually.

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It makes total sense but I'd never made the golf club-velocity connection to bat speed.

Long drive specialists swing these enormous shafts to maximize clubhead speed and ball distance. Longer the lever, faster the speed at the extent.

Same concept seems to apply to bat speed.

I'm surprised they haven't developed some type of combined metric for bat speed and swing length; above average on the former and below on the latter would seem to be the sweet spot.

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It's a bit amusing that Cruz uses a rather short bat compared to most players, only 33.5 inches. Same size I used in high school and college lol.

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May 15·edited May 15

34" drop-3 all the way, brother!

With Cruz I wonder if that bat length choice is instinctive or purposeful? Would seem to make sense that a guy with like a friggin' 12 foot wing span could gain bat control without sacrificing bat speed by shortening up a bit of bat length?

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May 15·edited May 15

Yeah that makes sense, the other aspect I think may play a role is that hitters are on top of the plate these days. Don't see to many batters on the outer part of the batters box anymore, except an open stance coming back in on the swing. The opposite of Will Clark.

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I expect it's a matter of time. If you check the list of bat speed leaders, though, all those guys are good to outstanding hitters.

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Pretty clear signal there.

Me, an idiot, did not notice you can at least graph swing length against bat speed:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/bat-tracking?sortColumn=swing_length_qualified&sortDirection=desc&vizX=avg_sweetspot_speed_mph_qualified&vizY=swing_length_qualified

That lower right quad, above avg speed and below avg length, would seem to be the sweet spot?

Also LOL at Luis Arreaz.

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Never would've guessed Justin Turner all the way down there.

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That one stuck out to me, too.

Guy is still getting it done at 39 yo but his exit velo *is* down 2mph from peak. They don't seem to have pre-2024 data so maybe this batspeed measure is just showing age-related decline?

Cutch still humming along, love that dude.

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May 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Keith Law has Montgomery mocked to us in his latest draft. He had the Angels taking Yesavage and said he'd be pitching with the big club. Not sure why the hell the Angels would do that but hey, you do you bud

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The Angels are always in win now mode whether they have the talent/depth or not.

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I think it was an FG commenter who said that LAA and ChiSox were amongst the worst teams in regards to knowing where they are in terms of contention. Pittsburgh is no great shakes either, but I remind myself it always could be worse.

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It would have to be more maddening to be an Angels or White Sox fan though. Even with a mediocre level of competence, those teams could be competitive given their resources. Especially the Angels. Even if the Pirates operated as a non-profit, they’d still have to be pretty skillful at an above average level to be competitive on a regular basis.

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Bingo.

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author

Cause they love drafting guys to almost immediately use them in the majors

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Yesavage is probably the closest starting pitcher to mlb. I'd say Smith coming out of the pen like Sales otherwise.

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Cause they can’t develop for shit in the minors I guess? You look at recent guys: Detmers, Neto, Schanuel…that kinda checks out.

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author

Anybody else of even modest intrigue they push straight to Double-A. Which, who knows, maybe they'll slow it down with Ohtani out of town?

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Joyce the reliever from Tennessee.

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May 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

LAA strikes me as having a level of dysfunction similar to the Pirates, only with different parameters. They’ll spend money, for instance, as stupidly as the Pirates but in vastly greater amounts. Nuttin is like the kindergarten version of Moreno.

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If they were solidly in the mix I guess I could find a reason for it but they're not gonna contend, so why throw the kid straight into the fire? Better them than us

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May 15·edited May 15

Not like they're exactly cheap in terms of overall spending, but pushing a league-min guy in place of a veteran is absolutely a cost-saving move.

Nolan Schanuel (sorry Mel!) sucks, but he's $15m cheaper than Rhyse Hoskins.

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They're ruining him, I said that when they called him up and again this year. He needs time in triple A to get his elite eye and plus bat to ball skill adjusted to better pitching to develop power.

I can understand last year calling him up when Ohtani was healthy because his on base ability but as soon as Ohtani was hurt they needed to send him down to develop power.

In that organization he very well could be ruined and suck for the long haul. He could also be a Turner type and thrive later after finding himself against lower competition.

So I agree.

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Guess I wasn't looking at it through that lens but ya I definitely see where you're coming from

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May 15Liked by NolaJeffy(BnP)

Klaw has a mock draft over on The Athletic. He notes that this is based on intel, discussions with scouts/executives, etc. Interestingly, he notes that he has far more feedback than usual in the top 10. Maybe that’s because there’s a sizable difference in talent after that level. Anyway, he has the Bucs getting Montgomery, but also as fits for Rainer/Griffin/Tibbs.

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author

I'm doing a dance if we get Montgomery

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He really only has a bad 4 game stretch when he went 0 for 18, three of those games were against Lsu.

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Don't know anything about Tibbs but he said he had more HRs than Ks

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Tibbs is a very good hitter, reminds me of Michael Busch as a player but is a better fielder.

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Lmao you beat me to it

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Very happy for Braxton Ashcraft - struggled with injuries through his professional career and is now looking healthy and very effective. Listed at 6'5" 200, and still only in his age 24 season. Obviously no need to rush him to AAA, but he will probably get that promotion before too long. They started him out slowly this year with a start for 3 innings and then a relief appearance for 2 innings, and he has now pitched into or beyond the 5th inning in 5 consecutive starts. In the start last night he went 7 innings in only 85 pitches! Needless to say, he has the pitches and commands them well.

A second round pick ($1.8 mil) in the 2018 Draft out of HS.

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Time to dangle either Ashcraft or Chandler for a productive CF or 1B?

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Ashcraft may not hit MLB until he is 26, Chandler probably by age 23. It all depends on which CF we want - 4 possibilities are Everson Pereira, 23, NYY; Jorge Barrosa, 23, D-Backs; Jonatan Clase, 22, Mariners; and Alex Ramirez, 21, NYM; Pereira and Ramirez are RH hitters; Barrosa and Clase are undersized switchhitters. The Yankees paid $5 mil to sign Pereira, and the Mets paid $2 mil to sign Ramirez.

Pereira K's a bunch, but has 8 or 9 HR's in AAA right now. He's my favorite because the Pirates and Yankees have a good trading relationship, and Pereira is blocked from upward mobility as a CF by at least 4 players - 2 in MLB already, and NYY prospects #1 and #2 who are also CF's. Take a look at the stats of Gleyber Torres and tell me what they could use.

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How’s that biography of Pereira coming?

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It has to be trolling, right?

Everson Pereira, 23 NYY isn't good. Additionally, he has more starts in LF/RF than CF in AAA.

It's either trolling or AI...There's another one in here that I'm completely convinced is AI.

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96 INN at CF

87.2 INN in RF

48 INN in LF

8 G at DH

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That or delusion. Either way, I’ll buy that biography. Tennessee Mel can fill up pages.

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Pereira signed for $1.5 million.

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I got the signing bonus out of the Athletic who had him at $5.1 mil

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May 15·edited May 15

That was about Dominguez in 2019. Pereira signed for $1.5 in 2017. Sources mlb.com, baseball prospectus and spotrac.com to name a few.

Not trying to be a dick, it's just the information I've seen.

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You’re not counting the extra 3.5 that Mel got to carry his jock for the next decade

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Pretty sure Mel is not real.

Real people don't talk like that...

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chatMEL ;)

Love ya Mel!

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