It would be tough to part with Keller now that he has figured it out, but the Pirates need hitters in the high Minors. Joe is a late bloomer who hits LHPs.
That's what makes a Keller tradeoption a good one. The team acquiring him will get cost certainty with Keller. That adds to his value. A #3 starter with term, at a comparatively low salary. A low risk player.
I'm in this boat but also (I fully am repeating myself) feel there will be one really big or a few reasonably big swings our GM needs to make. Right now in a vacuum that will be for a bat or two. Whether that is now or in the off season or even next trade deadline I don't know. He can't just wait forever (our window is Skenes employment as a Pirate IMO) but also can't force the issue (desperate = Archer) - in this market(Pittsburgh) he CAN'T miss and MUST thread that needle as there are not options to buy your way out of mistakes. That doesn't mean there can't be real / less long term upgrade made now as I think that is required as long as a playoff spot is within reach, however that could be a boring corner older outfielder upgrade for this year or that bigger swing (Bleday?).
I am more and more thinking the big swing should be to deal Keller for someone like Coby Mayo from the Orioles, along with 2 other prospects of some merit, and/or to the Red Sox who have a bunch of bats. Deal from strength and get a haul…
I’m glad to see Bubba turning on the jets. If he was just pitching so-so the temptation would be there to trade him for some offense but I can’t imagine watching his career develop anywhere but Pittsburgh
A thought on Chappy. Has any reliever made as much dinero? I seem to remember him getting a huge haul as a rookie FA from Cuba 14 years ago.
Bubba Chandler is really on fire. My only question is why they kept him out there for 7.2 innings and 97 pitches? We are closely monitoring the innings and number of pitches with Jared Jones at the MLB level, but do not care about the workload of a kid at AA pitching with a 3-0 lead for a team going nowhere? He's already at 61 IP and his last 2 years he was allowed to go 108 and 106 IP. Probably projecting a max of 120 IP this year.
Axiel Plaz, 19, already at 10 HR at A ball after only 1 HR in about 100 AB in the FCL last year? My first thought was he is selling out without regard to K's, but if my math is right, he is at a 26% K rate/8% BB rate which are very respectable numbers for a kid who is still 18. Have him listed at 5'11, 165 - are those numbers near accurate? And, he has VG defensive numbers at 1B/C. Fangraphs had him in their "Other Prospects of Note" with the quote "Plaz is a squat Venezuelan Catcher who has reached full season ball at age 18. He doesn't have prototypical size or big tools, but he's very advanced for his age". I guess he has found a "big tool"!
If there is a scale that gives a weight of 165 for Plaz, then Rowdy should step on it and get his weight below 200. The height has to be accurate, as they are all measured in spring training for ABS
Bubba threw around 110 innings last year. They're probably trying to get him over 130 innings this year. He was still sitting 95 to 97 mph in the 8th inning with good control and under a hundred pitches when they took him out (literally faced the minimum number of batters possible). The only 2 hits he gave up were grounders and only one of them made the outfield and it wasn't hit real hard. If he was in college they wouldn't have taken him out. He was averaging just over 12 pitches an inning, I'm actually a little surprised they didn't give him one more hitter to try and get through the 8th.
Possibly, or he might still be a 2 way player or the quarterback or injured. He made a good decision by taking the security and focusing on pitching, he still got 1st round money.
An Addendum.. from looking at the game log, it appears there also was not a lot of 'stress' in the game as well. I know what hurts / doesn't hurt a pitchers arm is still this big gray mass that nobody understands, but in my simple thoughts there is something to be said for stressful pitches vs. less stressful and maybe this was an opportunity to see how he would react to extending innings.
Yep he only had a couple at bats that went over 5 or 6 pitches.
There was an at bat in the Erie game he threw 11 or 12 pitches but still had a 2 - 2 count before giving up a homerun (should have had a strikeout one of the balls was dang near middle middle). Got long winded but it totally lead to stressful pitches.
Pirates win 5-4 to even the series with the Cards and finish off today with a 12:35 first pitch. It is time for the Buics to get their motor running and start a streak.
*
CARROTS ON THE HOUSE!!!!! (all bats edition)
@> B.Rey for tying it in the tenth.
@>@> O’Cruz for winning it in the tenth.
@>@>@> Rowdy for a great game. Good D and a 3 for 4 day with a homer, two runs scored, and turning on the jets going first to third on a blooper.
Two outfielders that would not cost much but would be upgrades would Kevin pillar and Jesse Winker. Not sure either are “big moves” but they are big upgrades over Taylor, Suwinski and Olivares. Pillar has a .911 OPS and Winker .787.
Took a look at some of the Pirates from last year to this year looking at just doubles and HR's. Two obvious Plus guys are Oneil Cruz and Nick Gonzales because neither played much last year. Reynolds is a plus as is Cutch. Worst negatives for 2024 are Hayes from his numbers of 2023, and Tellez compared to the numbers of Carlos Santana for the Pirates in 2023. Then you can get to Suwinski - rounding numbers he hit a double every 21 AB in 2023 and that is one in every 33 AB in 2024. In 2023 he hit a HR every 17 AB, in 2024 that number is a HR for every 29 AB. For example, Hayes hit a HR every 33 AB last year and this year that is a HR for every 76 AB.
Best HR/AB (rounded) in 2024 - Cutch 1 HR/23 AB; Cruz 1 HR/24 AB; Reynolds 1 HR/26 AB; and Suwinski 1 HR/29 AB.
Plus, if one trusts FG’s estimate of our playoff chances (about 10%), we’re better off giving ABs to Jack and Bae to get a better idea of whether they can be counted on for next year.
Ji-Hwan Bae and Alika Williams could best be used in trade along with pitching to get us a "now" CF like JJ Bleday, or a "prospect" CF who is near MLB - ready. I prefer Bleday, a local kid (Titusville HS) who went to school at Vandy. Only drawback is his Agent, but he is probably not going to stay for longer than 2 years.
Asking not assuming: how much are Barrosa's good not spectacular stats PCL based? ie. we sure he is that much of an upgrade? Of course with all these suggestions... acquisition cost can make a big difference. I don't think he qualifies as a 'give way' like some of the older vets may be.
He walks and strikes out at similar rates, power is limited, good contact rates from both sides. Very good to elite in center field with an average to slightly below average arm but is accurate.
A higher level starting pitcher, Sean Sullivan and a lower level starting pitcher, Curtis might get it done. He's pretty blocked at the mlb level with some prospects coming up behind him. He looks like a 4th outfielder in their organization but would have a chance to start here.
They may value him higher than what I think though.
His size would be a negative to purists, but he puts up EB numbers like he could be listed as 6'2" 180, and the BB/K numbers are excellent. I especially like the Switch hitter aspect which is why I also like the kid from the Mariners, Jonatan Clase. He's a year younger, hits for good EB numbers, strikes out more, but is excellent on the basepaths (62 SB at AA in 2023). Either of these kids plugged in right now would be of benefit this year and could solve the CF issue for the next few years.
I like the research but I think your last sentence can be a stretch.. ie solve the CF issue for the next few years. Looking at just AAA numbers (I know I am simplifying things too much) Bae is a better candidate than both of them. MLB is hard and I feel we are looking at somebody's else's assets with rose colored glasses.
I want bleday too, but I think I’d rather spend in FA next year to get a long term solution and this year get some rentals so they don’t need to trade away prospect capital.
Spend in FA? That's a good one. The Pirates don't do that and the good FA don't want to come to a team that hasn't shown any commitment to winning. Quit worrying about a future that never comes and trade prospects for real major league players.
Or just keep your prospects and spend some money in FA. I get it they usually don’t but they have spent $40M the past couple of years. If they can get 2 $15M outfielders in the off-season that would fix a lot without losing prospects.
They could help but MAT was better than either in each of the last two years and expected regression suggests we can get more from MAT than either for the remainder of the season.
I disagree, MAT is lost this year. Winker was solid but had some issues the past two years. He looks like himself this year. Plus I don’t think you need to give up anything for them.
Yeah I agree with what you are saying. There is a risk but my only counter is I don’t think you would be losing much. I’m not sold on these guys but they are both intriguing. I would love Suwinski to go on a tear and then not need two outfielders.
My fear with both those two veterans as they have also been up and down (and pretty bad at times) in the not so distant past. ie. I am in the court of we have to be willing to give up prospects (of all types) to upgrade.. I'm just not sure there is much of an upgrade here. I'd prefer a slightly better upgrade (Pham?) and keep Taylor as the only actual CF on the roster. No matter how this season plays out, the corner outfielders are likely to remain pretty bad defensively... even if MAT becomes a seldom used backup, I want the glove.
Next year’s OD rotation is Skenes, Keller, Jones, Falter, and Bubba.
Book it!
Jared Jones to the IL
close to the All Star break could be a way for some added rest, and be careful with the Lat strain
Wouldn't be surprised if KeBryan had a similar IL stint to give a longer break (although a couple line drives last night inspire some hope)
Key is 6 for his last 15. Ran hard on a routine ground out. I have hope.
Might as well just let Chandler take the ball his next few turns in the rotation, honestly.
Would take extra roster moves. I get the temptation, but it's probably a combination Quinn Priester/bullpen games till the all-star break
Good I guess. Better odds Ben gets fired at years end.
#FREEBUBBA
We have pitching. GET. SOME. HITTING.
Two potential trades:
https://www.coveringthecorner.com/2024/7/2/24190892/proposing-a-guardians-pirates-trade
From Cleveland: DeLauter (injured) and Churio for Keller and Joe
Keller for https://www.fangraphs.com/players/coby-mayo/sa3014479/stats?position=3B
It would be tough to part with Keller now that he has figured it out, but the Pirates need hitters in the high Minors. Joe is a late bloomer who hits LHPs.
I don’t think they’re going to trade Keller since they signed him to an extension.
That's what makes a Keller tradeoption a good one. The team acquiring him will get cost certainty with Keller. That adds to his value. A #3 starter with term, at a comparatively low salary. A low risk player.
Yeah, but…they’re not gonna do that. I’m not saying it’s a bad idea, just that BC won’t do it.
At least not at this deadline.
Yep, unless it was the mother of all overpays.
I'm in this boat but also (I fully am repeating myself) feel there will be one really big or a few reasonably big swings our GM needs to make. Right now in a vacuum that will be for a bat or two. Whether that is now or in the off season or even next trade deadline I don't know. He can't just wait forever (our window is Skenes employment as a Pirate IMO) but also can't force the issue (desperate = Archer) - in this market(Pittsburgh) he CAN'T miss and MUST thread that needle as there are not options to buy your way out of mistakes. That doesn't mean there can't be real / less long term upgrade made now as I think that is required as long as a playoff spot is within reach, however that could be a boring corner older outfielder upgrade for this year or that bigger swing (Bleday?).
I am more and more thinking the big swing should be to deal Keller for someone like Coby Mayo from the Orioles, along with 2 other prospects of some merit, and/or to the Red Sox who have a bunch of bats. Deal from strength and get a haul…
I'd be open to dealing either Keller or Jones depending on the deal.
I’m glad to see Bubba turning on the jets. If he was just pitching so-so the temptation would be there to trade him for some offense but I can’t imagine watching his career develop anywhere but Pittsburgh
A thought on Chappy. Has any reliever made as much dinero? I seem to remember him getting a huge haul as a rookie FA from Cuba 14 years ago.
Bubba Chandler is really on fire. My only question is why they kept him out there for 7.2 innings and 97 pitches? We are closely monitoring the innings and number of pitches with Jared Jones at the MLB level, but do not care about the workload of a kid at AA pitching with a 3-0 lead for a team going nowhere? He's already at 61 IP and his last 2 years he was allowed to go 108 and 106 IP. Probably projecting a max of 120 IP this year.
Axiel Plaz, 19, already at 10 HR at A ball after only 1 HR in about 100 AB in the FCL last year? My first thought was he is selling out without regard to K's, but if my math is right, he is at a 26% K rate/8% BB rate which are very respectable numbers for a kid who is still 18. Have him listed at 5'11, 165 - are those numbers near accurate? And, he has VG defensive numbers at 1B/C. Fangraphs had him in their "Other Prospects of Note" with the quote "Plaz is a squat Venezuelan Catcher who has reached full season ball at age 18. He doesn't have prototypical size or big tools, but he's very advanced for his age". I guess he has found a "big tool"!
Minor league season is shorter and they pitch on more rest. Not comparable.
If there is a scale that gives a weight of 165 for Plaz, then Rowdy should step on it and get his weight below 200. The height has to be accurate, as they are all measured in spring training for ABS
Bubba threw around 110 innings last year. They're probably trying to get him over 130 innings this year. He was still sitting 95 to 97 mph in the 8th inning with good control and under a hundred pitches when they took him out (literally faced the minimum number of batters possible). The only 2 hits he gave up were grounders and only one of them made the outfield and it wasn't hit real hard. If he was in college they wouldn't have taken him out. He was averaging just over 12 pitches an inning, I'm actually a little surprised they didn't give him one more hitter to try and get through the 8th.
If Bubba Chandler were in college, he would be a top 10 draft pick this year.
Possibly, or he might still be a 2 way player or the quarterback or injured. He made a good decision by taking the security and focusing on pitching, he still got 1st round money.
An Addendum.. from looking at the game log, it appears there also was not a lot of 'stress' in the game as well. I know what hurts / doesn't hurt a pitchers arm is still this big gray mass that nobody understands, but in my simple thoughts there is something to be said for stressful pitches vs. less stressful and maybe this was an opportunity to see how he would react to extending innings.
Yep he only had a couple at bats that went over 5 or 6 pitches.
There was an at bat in the Erie game he threw 11 or 12 pitches but still had a 2 - 2 count before giving up a homerun (should have had a strikeout one of the balls was dang near middle middle). Got long winded but it totally lead to stressful pitches.
Wednesday, July 3
41 down. 40 to go.
*
Pirates win 5-4 to even the series with the Cards and finish off today with a 12:35 first pitch. It is time for the Buics to get their motor running and start a streak.
*
CARROTS ON THE HOUSE!!!!! (all bats edition)
@> B.Rey for tying it in the tenth.
@>@> O’Cruz for winning it in the tenth.
@>@>@> Rowdy for a great game. Good D and a 3 for 4 day with a homer, two runs scored, and turning on the jets going first to third on a blooper.
_________________________
“What am I doing???”
-Wabbit
Two outfielders that would not cost much but would be upgrades would Kevin pillar and Jesse Winker. Not sure either are “big moves” but they are big upgrades over Taylor, Suwinski and Olivares. Pillar has a .911 OPS and Winker .787.
Took a look at some of the Pirates from last year to this year looking at just doubles and HR's. Two obvious Plus guys are Oneil Cruz and Nick Gonzales because neither played much last year. Reynolds is a plus as is Cutch. Worst negatives for 2024 are Hayes from his numbers of 2023, and Tellez compared to the numbers of Carlos Santana for the Pirates in 2023. Then you can get to Suwinski - rounding numbers he hit a double every 21 AB in 2023 and that is one in every 33 AB in 2024. In 2023 he hit a HR every 17 AB, in 2024 that number is a HR for every 29 AB. For example, Hayes hit a HR every 33 AB last year and this year that is a HR for every 76 AB.
Best HR/AB (rounded) in 2024 - Cutch 1 HR/23 AB; Cruz 1 HR/24 AB; Reynolds 1 HR/26 AB; and Suwinski 1 HR/29 AB.
Plus, if one trusts FG’s estimate of our playoff chances (about 10%), we’re better off giving ABs to Jack and Bae to get a better idea of whether they can be counted on for next year.
I’d ship bae off in a trade for one these guys and I’m not against trading Suwinski either. This off-season they need to spend on outfielders.
Ji-Hwan Bae and Alika Williams could best be used in trade along with pitching to get us a "now" CF like JJ Bleday, or a "prospect" CF who is near MLB - ready. I prefer Bleday, a local kid (Titusville HS) who went to school at Vandy. Only drawback is his Agent, but he is probably not going to stay for longer than 2 years.
Jorge Barrosa is back from injury playing in Reno. Still think he would be the cheapest to aquire with excellent defense and very good on base skills.
Asking not assuming: how much are Barrosa's good not spectacular stats PCL based? ie. we sure he is that much of an upgrade? Of course with all these suggestions... acquisition cost can make a big difference. I don't think he qualifies as a 'give way' like some of the older vets may be.
He walks and strikes out at similar rates, power is limited, good contact rates from both sides. Very good to elite in center field with an average to slightly below average arm but is accurate.
A higher level starting pitcher, Sean Sullivan and a lower level starting pitcher, Curtis might get it done. He's pretty blocked at the mlb level with some prospects coming up behind him. He looks like a 4th outfielder in their organization but would have a chance to start here.
They may value him higher than what I think though.
His size would be a negative to purists, but he puts up EB numbers like he could be listed as 6'2" 180, and the BB/K numbers are excellent. I especially like the Switch hitter aspect which is why I also like the kid from the Mariners, Jonatan Clase. He's a year younger, hits for good EB numbers, strikes out more, but is excellent on the basepaths (62 SB at AA in 2023). Either of these kids plugged in right now would be of benefit this year and could solve the CF issue for the next few years.
I like the research but I think your last sentence can be a stretch.. ie solve the CF issue for the next few years. Looking at just AAA numbers (I know I am simplifying things too much) Bae is a better candidate than both of them. MLB is hard and I feel we are looking at somebody's else's assets with rose colored glasses.
I want bleday too, but I think I’d rather spend in FA next year to get a long term solution and this year get some rentals so they don’t need to trade away prospect capital.
Spend in FA? That's a good one. The Pirates don't do that and the good FA don't want to come to a team that hasn't shown any commitment to winning. Quit worrying about a future that never comes and trade prospects for real major league players.
Or just keep your prospects and spend some money in FA. I get it they usually don’t but they have spent $40M the past couple of years. If they can get 2 $15M outfielders in the off-season that would fix a lot without losing prospects.
They could help but MAT was better than either in each of the last two years and expected regression suggests we can get more from MAT than either for the remainder of the season.
Defensively yes, but sometimes I wonder why he even takes the bat with him to the batter's box.
I disagree, MAT is lost this year. Winker was solid but had some issues the past two years. He looks like himself this year. Plus I don’t think you need to give up anything for them.
Yeah I agree with what you are saying. There is a risk but my only counter is I don’t think you would be losing much. I’m not sold on these guys but they are both intriguing. I would love Suwinski to go on a tear and then not need two outfielders.
My fear with both those two veterans as they have also been up and down (and pretty bad at times) in the not so distant past. ie. I am in the court of we have to be willing to give up prospects (of all types) to upgrade.. I'm just not sure there is much of an upgrade here. I'd prefer a slightly better upgrade (Pham?) and keep Taylor as the only actual CF on the roster. No matter how this season plays out, the corner outfielders are likely to remain pretty bad defensively... even if MAT becomes a seldom used backup, I want the glove.
Pham + Pillar and Vlad Jr makes this team pretty interesting, imo.