51 Comments

How could Shelton allow A pitcher to give up five hard hit balls (all hits) with the game on the line and not make A pitching change before giving up the lead. He should he terminated.

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After a commenter mentioned that Shelton/Pirates was taking credit for the drafting and developing Skenes (and if they are that desperate to control the narrative they could claim the same with Jones…), and WTM saying it won’t stick and instead, the focus will turn to the deficiencies with the rest of the club after 5 years of rebuilding, I am starting to see evidence of this.

The NS9 guys are even more frustrated with the direction of the team and today, Ben Clemens at FG includes a section in his weekly column about the Pirates. I don’t know how to link, but the gist is that the Pirates are one of the most exciting teams to watch with Jones, Skenes and Cruz. He writes that they are also exciting because their bullpen implodes, further noting that their young hitters have not produced as expected.

Skenes was the right pick. You can luck into another pitcher developing into his 90 percentile projection (maybe Jones!), but unless you are the Guardians or M’s I’m not that confident it’ll happen often enough to have a playoff caliber rotation. It’s just funny to me that if this team does not improve and Wilbur’s prediction holds up, Shelton and Cherrington could expedite their end with the club by picking the right guy 1-1.

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May 24·edited May 24

And here's the link to the Fangraphs article. I agree that if I was a neutral fan, the Pirates would be so much fun to watch but as a passionate fan, the last couple of games have been too painful to appreciate the highs.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-or-didnt-like-this-week-5-24-24/

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For reference, here's the quote from Shelton that I took as taking too much credit for developing Skenes when it's been widely acknowledged that LSU's pitching coach was responsible for much of that development and that Skenes has taken control of much of the rest, including developing the splinker:

“It makes you smile when you see those guys go back-to-back," Pirates manager Derek Shelton said of Jones and Skenes. “We’re talking about drafting the right people and developing them. I think we saw that with the last two starts we got here."

I could even criticize the pat on the back for drafting Skenes when the large majority of posters here and national writers thought he should go #1. I do give them credit for Jones, though. They now need to prove that developing a pitcher like Jones is more the rule than the exception, with Chandler, Solometo, Harrington (I know he was drafted out of college but with very little pitching experience), Kennedy, Killington, Mueth, and maybe a couple of others as their opportunities. Did they luck into Jones or is he a product of their developmental process?

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Thanks, TN for quote and link!

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Skenes was nothing until the Pirates drafted him and taught him how to pitch.

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Skenes was actually a lefty until the Bucs taught him otherwise.

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Seriously, one thing I learned from coaching athletes, is that if they are super gifted and mentally strong, don't do anything to screw that up. Give them little advise, but a lot of confidence. Be there if they need it, but leave them alone as much as possible.

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Even before we drafted him, watching his last 8 or 9 starts. It became pretty clear that Skenes was a different beast, he'll figure it out.

I'm a bat first guy but it was an easy pick to take him at 1.1, we sure can't afford to buy an ACE in free agency, can't afford to trade the prospect capital to aquire one with multiple years of control. The only hope is developing one (Jones potentially) or drafting one that is damn near ready (Skenes). It's what makes this front office, coaching staff and most importantly owner not have a semblance of urgency. The time was the off-season to address weak spots on the field, specifically CF, 1st base and a legit 3 starting pitcher. Like many I thought the bullpen would be a strength but injuries and regression has left it with holes. Falter has been a pleasant surprise and the starting staff is a strength thanks in part to 2 rookies performing great.

If they would have went out and got a slightly above average CFer and 1st basemen the main focus would only be an additional bullpen piece or 2 to make this a potential playoff team, instead of multiple pieces.

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I remember your thoughts on Skenes. I was also against a pitcher, but after a couple of weeks of listening to you, you changed me.

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May 24·edited May 24

Wes Johnson would be a good potential replacement for Shelton. He has a very good track record for pitching development and as far as hitting, Georgia looks very good compared to prior years as far as quality at bats go, at least to my novus eye.

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Wes Johnson would be a good hire for any number of positions in the Pirates system: all the way up to GM. But then again, he is a baseball-guy, with years of experience and a track-record of success everywhere he has gone in every job he has received: in short, the last guy whom the Pirates would hire for any position.

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That's a phenomenal writeup on the current state of Pirate baseball by Clemens.

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May 24·edited May 24

He forgot one thing, the pure emotion of every Tellez at bat! It's followed by some of the fans loudest reactions. Disgust, anger are emotions I think?

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If Tellez's ABs weren't so frustrating, the irony of him becoming the target of boos after criticizing fans for booing could be better appreciated. (And as one of the PG columnists, maybe Mackey, noted the other day, Tellez misread the boos being aimed at Shelton as being aimed at Bednar to begin with.)

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Tellez still doesn't get it: any of it. Every year the Pirates have a Rowdy Tellez: a guy whom they acquired for peanuts to fill an important role and who sucks so bad that no one in baseball, except the Pirates, would keep running him out onto a major-league field. When the fans boo that player, they are booing an owner who frugality made that acquisition necessary; they booing an incompetent front-office who wasted even a tiny portion of their meager budget on that player; they are booing a poor developmental system which failed to have an internal replacement for that position; and they booing a team so uncompetitive that they have not won a 5-team division in 32 years.

Every year there is a Rowdy Tellez, and so long as there is, Rowdy Tellez will be booed.

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👏

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May 24·edited May 24

Minor league conundrums...

-Hank Davis is once again shredding AAA pitchers. Two more dongs last night, although neither off a pitch above 90mph. By my count all six of his homers at the level have been on offerings under 90mph. The average big league fastball hovers around 94. He posted a wOBA of just .226 against them this year.

-Termarr Johnson has now lowered his k-rate to a paltry 16.5% this month yet is still dragging a BABIP in the low 2s. Still been exceptionally productive with a wRC+ of 137. I can't wait for somebody to get eyes and ears on what's up with him this year.

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No idea what to think with Hank. May be looking at a Quad A player here.

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I think Henry will be a solid major league player. I'm not sure if it will be in 3 weeks, 3 months or 3 years.

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Joey Bart looks to be proving the ole catcher dev adage to be once again correct.

Hank's got plenty of time.

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Some of you may know the story, but I hadn't and found this article on Mattson interesting and now I'm really rooting for him to make it:

https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2024/05/23/indianapolis-indians-mlb-prospects-mental-health-awareness-month/stories/202405200088

The whiffs are encouraging.

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Plaz left the Marauder game last night in the 5th. It came right after he legged out an infield hit (didn't need to, there was no throw). He stayed in to run, before leaving the next inning. Probably not serious, but they are already low on catchers.

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A Sweep last night by the full season minor league clubs; the Pirates blow another late, large lead to the Giants and looking forward to seeing better pitching coming from the Braves.

Under the heading of Bayonet the Wounded, Jack Suwinski was demoted. Yes, he was struggling badly on the year, but in the 5 games prior to the announcement he was 3 for 12, 3BB, 4 K, a HR and had actually raised his average by around 10 points. Go figure!

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After getting rid of your long relievers and shortening your bullpen before a series where you were sure to need a real multiple innings guy and then you option a hitter two weeks later then you should it leaves me to believe the only thing Pirate managements knows about timing is when they get paid!

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May 24·edited May 24

Stat guys, tell me I'm wrong and why, and I'll learn something: my view of Jack. Hits HRs and goes on hitting steaks which can overshadow his lack of overall production. At best an average defender. Maybe he needed more time in the minors. At best he looks like a role player to me on a team that needs a young Starling Marte type of talent in the OF.

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Last year his batting average by month were .279, .207, .185, .246, .130, .289. I'm guessing he will once again figure it out. Who knows if it will be 2 weeks or 2 months with Jack.

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The fact that Pirate fans are divided and have to discuss the value of players like Suwinski says far more about the state of the Pirates than it does about the player. Some see him as a savior power hitter lacking elsewhere on the team and others see him as a below average defender who occasionally hits a homer but more often leaves the plate shaking his head and leaving runners in scoring position.

On a good offensive team he's not a point of discussion because he's not playing much if at all while on a bad offensive team, well, that's where he's been and this is what you get, hope and division. He's easy to like and root for, but if this team had any quality outfielders he would have been an after thought a long time ago. I hope he goes to Indy and finds something so he can return to Pittsburgh and become the player his fans have continued to hope he can become, but I have come to seriously doubt that player exists.

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Wrong on a bunch of counts. Per wRC+, Jack was 24th in all of baseball among qualified OF. Right in the neighborhood of Fernando Tatis, Michael Harris, and Ian Happ. As for whether he would have played much on a good team with numbers like that, those numbers stack up fairly well at an OF spot for any of the NL teams who made the playoffs.

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Defend him. I knew someone would because someone always does. I’m done talking about him for now. He’s where he belongs and one can only hope he finds something so he can possibly contribute again.

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I mean, your comments weren’t really accurate. So it doesn’t even have to be about me “defending” him. It’s probably better if we stick to Dylan Crews, right?

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Suwinski is precisely the type of dude who continually pops up on Tampa rosters for a few years and builds them praise for cobbling spare parts together into an above average team.

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Very well said and why I hope they don’t move on from him. It helps his case that they have virtually nothing coming in the system for OF, so he should get some rope. Jack is productive (or was last year) but not in a particularly aesthetically pleasing way. The TTO curse.

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I am not ruling out Canaan Smith-Njigba. Who knows if Frazier, Palacios, Celestino or someone unexpected surprises us all. Keep in mind, no one was really counting on Jack to progress like he did. Tucapito was the guy in the trade. There is little doubt in my mind that Jack will start hitting again.

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He was worth 2.7 fWAR, 2.2 bWAR (as an aside, these are more than 1.5 WAR higher than any figure that Tellez has put up) last year which is impressive for his first full season.

I think many organizations would have viewed him as an everyday player after that kind of a season, but Cherington and Shelton clearly viewed him as needing a platoon partner by acquiring both Olivares and MAT. Did that mess with his confidence? Was it all the lefties we saw early? Is it just that his struggles occurred early? Was last year simply a fluky season? Did teams learn how to better attack him?

In any case, they can't be playing Suwinski and Tellez at the same time with how badly each is struggling. I'd jettison Tellez but hopefully the demotion will be good for Jack as it evidently was for Gonzales.

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Agree on Tellez. He needs to go. I really like Jack for reasons beyond his play. I respect his commitment to his faith. He's a hard worker and a student of the game. I hate to see a high character guy struggle, but there's reality: he needs to perform. I hope he figures it out.

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My two bits because Jack is my guy. For whatever reason, his defense has taken a step back. Coming up in 22, Fangraphs had him as a power only slug. He’s more than that, though. He can run a little bit and was good enough defensively in 22 they tried to shoehorn him into CF. He is a better fit at corner OF, but his defense has regressed so far.

Offensively, it looks like he’s sacrificed power for contact. I can understand this up to a point. His K rate at 30-32% in the majors is right at the razor’s edge. You can be productive offensively striking out that much IF you’re taking your walks and hitting 25 dongs (yeah I’m referring to homers that way, it’ll catch on). But I’m not sure he has the bat control to reduce the K’s enough to mix with the power he has left to be a productive bat. Even though he’s been a little snake-bit with some bad breaks, I’m not sure this new approach fits him. In short, he’s better as a three true outcomes guy.

The fault, if one can call it that, is that he’s a useful player with notable flaws that fans (and management) don’t appear willing to accept. He can’t hit lefties, and at his best, he’s a good platoon player in the OF who has a decently well-rounded game. Hopefully he goes down, gets recalibrated, and comes back up in a few weeks and hits like crazy. But as a limited player, I won’t fault him for being something he’s not.

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I think Jack needs to be aggressive, and the current approach taught by Haines and Shelton works against that. I'm not yet convinced that he's only a platoon player but he's one of my favorite players so that may be based more on hope than anything else.

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Jack Suwinski has been far *more* aggressive in 2024 by any measure of the term and that has correlated with his *worst* performance as a big leaguer.

His swing rate is exactly league average and he's offering at strikes at an *above* average rate.

Hammer > nail with you guys, every damn time.

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As a counter, Joe, McCutchen, and Reynolds have swung at the first pitch in about 30-35% of their PAs while Suwinski has swung at the first pitch in only about 20% of his PAs. I.e., Jack swings at the first pitch about 1 out of every 5 PAs while the three hitters most known for their approaches swing at the first pitch about 1 out of every 3 PAs.

While that's not the best measure of aggressiveness because it's not factoring in location and type of pitch and it's obviously only focused on the first pitch, it's what led to my eye-test comment. It definitely goes deeper than that, though. His first-pitch swing rate is only very slightly below what he did last year. However, this year he's terrible when swinging at the first pitch (.344 OPS) while last year he was excellent (.827 OPS).

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While I think he’s probably a platoon player, I think you could be spot on regarding the passive approach hurting him. One of the oddities of this team is, they are really built to employ the philosophy that Shelton/Haines want to employ.

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May 24·edited May 24

EDIT

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Sorry, I was trying to say they aren’t built to employ the strategy Shelton/Haines want to employ. Didn’t catch my typo.

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I think you're probably spot on with Jack, only thing I would really like have seen him try was his 2 strike approach throughout his at bat with a slightly more open stance.

He's hit 2 of his homeruns this season (maybe 3 need to check) choking up on the bat.

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Probably so, but we tend to be very slow recognizing that we need a full time CF and none in the system are even close to the MLB level.

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Bae is our best hope in the majors currently. I think he can be an above average defender in CF but it'll take time. On the offensive side he needs to be an on base machine and use his speed to manufacture runs wisely.

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