So, baseball's big report on pitching injuries is out. Mostly not a lot that is controversial, insightful, or new to people following the sport. The drive for more spin and more velocity is causing more pitching injuries owing to max effort deliveries, even to younger players, prior to beginning their MLB careers.
What is interesting is the observation that many of these injuries are occurring early in the season or even in spring training. The folk behind the study seem to think that too much pitch-design work and development in the offseason is causing pitchers to show up injury prone to spring training. Pitching injuries decline as the season wears on.
There seems to be something missing here though, and there is a lot of speculation, without much real evidence, about why pitching injuries are much more common early in a season. This needs more study. Could guys be tweaking mechanics in ways that put unnatural stress on their arm as they experiment in the off-season while they work on pitch design? Seems like they need another study that drills down on whether off-season work on mechanics correlates to early-season injuries and what types of changes correlate to early season injuries.
Pitching by nature causes unnatural stress. I would think certain pitches cause more stress, such as the screwball and split-finger fastball. And of course, effort exerted surely plays a part, too. Which makes me wonder why MLB teams don’t try to develop knuckleball pitchers?
I would think the biggest key indicator is personal tolerance. Some guys are just created to handle the stress of pitching better than others. Ryan, Johnson (both Walter and Randy), are just a few examples of flamethrowers who enjoyed longevity, while guys like Koufax, Pryor, and Wood flamed out early.
I just don’t think any study is going to give us all the answers.
Remember the WWII plane study? Do you reinforce the places on planes that returned to base with damage or the places that don't?
Seems like it's at least possible that the same guys who blow out early in the season would still blow out regardless of offseason workload, just later.
Repeating mechanics is a thing that is not talked about enough with pitchers IMO, both for control and for preventing injuries. If a guy's arm path and release is the same this pitch as last pitch, and the last pitch did not cause an injury, it seems much less likely that this pitch will as well. Guys with variable mechanics, however, never know how their arm will move next or what the next pitch will do to their arm.
Getting into a routine and establishing a repeatable delivery is critical. Take a look at that video yesterday of Kellington. The guy is the definition of inconsistent mechanics... falling over after pitches... jerking his arm and wrist violently on the follow through to each pitch. It is not hard, for me at least, to see why he is injury prone.
After 40 or so years of coaching and training cross country runners, I pride myself in how to limit injuries. The first month or so we build up slow miles and limit the amount of speed we do. We continue to keep the miles high for over half of the season because it also builds up strength, it is repetitve mechanics, and actually prevents injuries. As the runners build up strenth, we mix in more speed.
If starting pitcher's arms worked the same as distance runner's legs, there would be strict limits on how hard a pitcher could throw early in the season. They would be constantly throwing 9 innings of battings practice to build strength and work on repeated mechanics. During the season they would constantly be throwing long toss and slowly building up on max effort pitches.
I made it sound much simpler than it really is, especially since everyone is built different. In conculusion, even though this may be a better model for injury prevention, it is not a better model for winning. Pitchers would have higher ERAs in April and May. The Dodgers model is not to be too concerned with injuries as they won a world series going through 38 pitchers. Analytics says the max effort approach works best for winning.
I think "building up innings" and developing repeatable mechanics are closely aligned. You want guys to get into a pattern and routine. Even veterans can fall into bad habits and start doing things a little differently after some time off. Anyone who has played any sport can testify to how a little rust can cause major mechanical issues.
So... yeah... I am in favor of the "building up" idea, more because you want guys in a comfortable routine with a consistent delivery rather than trying to throw 100 pitches every 5 days when their mechanics are a little off.
Repeatable mechanics is extremely important in my opinion, when throwing max effort. It's a reasonable theory that a combination of the two, repeatable mechanics with build up, could reduce the probability of injury.
This is why I am not as worried about Jones as some others. He seems very smooth, almost machine-like in his delivery. It also seems very natural to me.. his overall pitching motion. He is somewhat higher effort than Keller or Skenes, but his whole delivery seems very natural and repetitive. Of course, a little rust... and all of that could change. Pitchers walk a fine line, and to my mind, even the smallest deviations from pattern can cause problems.
AM - Suggestion for a now or early January entry on Johan Oviedo. He's been throwing since May, and has already passed 12 months since his TJ Surgery. Good chance he could join Skenes, Jones, Keller, and Falter in the Rotation straight out of ST or shortly thereafter.
It's a nice bonus that Oviedo has options. While I usually like to disregard spring training performance, his could be important(not ERA etc, but his command). Players seem to comeback from TJ in many ways. If he is not sharp I don't think it is a negative for him or the team to send him to AAA. Finding his sharpness does not need to occur at the expense of the Major League team. Optimistically he is ready to go and he can be the swingman or the #5 starter.
It seems that often, when faced with TJ, pitchers do come back in different ways. I think mainly, the time off and the delicate and deliberate pace of recovery gives guys time to reevaluate how they injured themselves and to breaking down just how they pitch and what their game needs.
It is almost a given for pitchers to take the year and a half ride on the TJ train. Just think, pre-TJ, a pitcher's career was over. Now, it is like a career reset.
I think it’s more likely he’s slated for the swingman role Ortiz had at beginning of last season. This allows for his innings to be better controlled, and most importantly leaves a spot open in rotation for 2025 NL ROY, Bubba “Ice Man” Chandler.
Command is supposed to be the last thing you get back after TJ and his wasn’t great to start with. So yeah, reliever should be it. Mike Burrows will carry the load until BC is ready.
The Yankees got the best of this one IMO. Bellinger is not Juan Soto, but in that lineup, in the AL East, he could be a 30 HR add to the lineup. He averaged 22 HR for the Cubs the last two years, and the AL East is a very nice location for a LH power hitter - has some of the shortest RF distances in MLB, led by Yankee Stadium. The Cubs will also send $5 mil - $2.5 mil in 2025 and $2.5 mil in 2026.
I think Belli increased his value by dropping his K Rate from around 26% with the Dodgers down to about 15% both years with the Cubs. He did so while increasing his BB rate to around 8% and averaging 26 Doubles/22 HR/88 RBI. The Cubs had to move one of their LH OF bats so his departure assures Pete Crow-Armstrong of staying in the starting lineup in CF, and Owen Caissie probably a bump to the majors out of ST or early in the season so they do not lose a year of control.
Admit that you are just happy that Everson Pereira moved down a spot on the Yankees' depth chart.
It was a good move for the Yankees. They got a good OF bat and defender and gave up almost nothing. Bellinger's next season also has an opt-out, but it is also a team option with a buyout that the Cubs have guaranteed to pay 50%, so the Yankees get the much better 2 years of the contract than the Cubs, who had no option on this season.
As for the Cubs, they jumped through a lot of hoops and moved a lot of prospects to upgrade for one season at one OF position. Remember, as I have pointed out, Bellinger played 2 months last season with broken ribs. If Tucker breaks his ribs in April and plays 2 months when it hurts to breath, will his numbers look much better than Bellinger's?
EP had the better part of a year to think about his future. Strange that Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, and Everson Pereira all undershot the Club's expectations. EP is still only 24 next year. Instead, how about Jack coming out in ST and looking like the kid who played for the Pirates in 2023!
Remember, in addition to Everson Pereira, I was also on Ceddanne "DeVille" Rafaela who was very good for a Rookie for the Red Sox.
Check out that 2nd year on Belli's contract - I think Cot's had it as a Player Option.
It has a player option, but the club has an option too with a $5 million dollar buyout. The Cubs are picking up $2.5 million on that second year, whether it is salary or 1/2 of the $5 million buyout.
I believe it’s actually a pure player option. If Bellinger declines the 2026 option, he’s owed a $5M buyout. No matter what he decides, the Cubs are kicking $5M total to whatever the Yankees end up owing Bellinger - either by way of the buyout or the exercising of the player option for 2026.
According to Sportrac it is a player-only option, but the MLB story says that the Yankees can buy out his player option for $5 million.... so there seems to be some mystery here.
I don't like how the Yankees let the Cubs off the hook for their dumb deal with Bellinger, and now the Cubs will likely use that savings to sign the pitcher(s) they need to become division favorites.
The Pirates will still have the edge in pitching. Oviedo should be game ready by opening day and his ERA in 2023 would have been tied with JJ in '24, therefore tied for SP #2 behind Paul Skenes. We get stronger for 2025, but with what we already have, why would we be adverse to picking up Santander's contract for say 4/$88 - $22 mil per year and a club option in the 5th year? 30 years old in 2025 and has played an average of about 155 games per year the last 3 years!
Even factoring in Keller’s pay raise, the rotation is uber talented and dirt cheap. I really don’t think they need to spend the typical $5-8M on any veteran SP adds with Burrows, Chandler, Harrington, etc. in the wings. An add of someone like Santander/Teo to the lineup should be the priority. Plugging that kind of bat does more than merely “lengthening the lineup.”
I’d even make that kind of signing at the expense of committing any real money to any BP additions.
So, baseball's big report on pitching injuries is out. Mostly not a lot that is controversial, insightful, or new to people following the sport. The drive for more spin and more velocity is causing more pitching injuries owing to max effort deliveries, even to younger players, prior to beginning their MLB careers.
What is interesting is the observation that many of these injuries are occurring early in the season or even in spring training. The folk behind the study seem to think that too much pitch-design work and development in the offseason is causing pitchers to show up injury prone to spring training. Pitching injuries decline as the season wears on.
There seems to be something missing here though, and there is a lot of speculation, without much real evidence, about why pitching injuries are much more common early in a season. This needs more study. Could guys be tweaking mechanics in ways that put unnatural stress on their arm as they experiment in the off-season while they work on pitch design? Seems like they need another study that drills down on whether off-season work on mechanics correlates to early-season injuries and what types of changes correlate to early season injuries.
Pitching by nature causes unnatural stress. I would think certain pitches cause more stress, such as the screwball and split-finger fastball. And of course, effort exerted surely plays a part, too. Which makes me wonder why MLB teams don’t try to develop knuckleball pitchers?
I would think the biggest key indicator is personal tolerance. Some guys are just created to handle the stress of pitching better than others. Ryan, Johnson (both Walter and Randy), are just a few examples of flamethrowers who enjoyed longevity, while guys like Koufax, Pryor, and Wood flamed out early.
I just don’t think any study is going to give us all the answers.
Couldn't this be classic survivorship bias?
Remember the WWII plane study? Do you reinforce the places on planes that returned to base with damage or the places that don't?
Seems like it's at least possible that the same guys who blow out early in the season would still blow out regardless of offseason workload, just later.
Yeah, this is one of the questions that I would think requires further study to clarify.
One possibility—just speculation obviously—is that routines take hold over time and the body adapts. IOW, “building up” is a real thing.
Repeating mechanics is a thing that is not talked about enough with pitchers IMO, both for control and for preventing injuries. If a guy's arm path and release is the same this pitch as last pitch, and the last pitch did not cause an injury, it seems much less likely that this pitch will as well. Guys with variable mechanics, however, never know how their arm will move next or what the next pitch will do to their arm.
Getting into a routine and establishing a repeatable delivery is critical. Take a look at that video yesterday of Kellington. The guy is the definition of inconsistent mechanics... falling over after pitches... jerking his arm and wrist violently on the follow through to each pitch. It is not hard, for me at least, to see why he is injury prone.
After 40 or so years of coaching and training cross country runners, I pride myself in how to limit injuries. The first month or so we build up slow miles and limit the amount of speed we do. We continue to keep the miles high for over half of the season because it also builds up strength, it is repetitve mechanics, and actually prevents injuries. As the runners build up strenth, we mix in more speed.
If starting pitcher's arms worked the same as distance runner's legs, there would be strict limits on how hard a pitcher could throw early in the season. They would be constantly throwing 9 innings of battings practice to build strength and work on repeated mechanics. During the season they would constantly be throwing long toss and slowly building up on max effort pitches.
I made it sound much simpler than it really is, especially since everyone is built different. In conculusion, even though this may be a better model for injury prevention, it is not a better model for winning. Pitchers would have higher ERAs in April and May. The Dodgers model is not to be too concerned with injuries as they won a world series going through 38 pitchers. Analytics says the max effort approach works best for winning.
Great explanation, I tried to use a similar theory and yours is so much better with the build up and working towards max effort.
great reply.
You need to read better sources, brother. Nobody worth reading questions the value of mechanical repeatability.
Which is why they’ve been successful with super-athletic guys like Jones and Chandler. They develop the consistency.
Good take, cause I didn't read that article or look at the video.
That description sounds awful, so it's good I didn't spend any time on him. Hopefully the Pirates won't either.
I was just about to respond the same, "maybe it is building up the innings".
I think "building up innings" and developing repeatable mechanics are closely aligned. You want guys to get into a pattern and routine. Even veterans can fall into bad habits and start doing things a little differently after some time off. Anyone who has played any sport can testify to how a little rust can cause major mechanical issues.
So... yeah... I am in favor of the "building up" idea, more because you want guys in a comfortable routine with a consistent delivery rather than trying to throw 100 pitches every 5 days when their mechanics are a little off.
Repeatable mechanics is extremely important in my opinion, when throwing max effort. It's a reasonable theory that a combination of the two, repeatable mechanics with build up, could reduce the probability of injury.
This is why I am not as worried about Jones as some others. He seems very smooth, almost machine-like in his delivery. It also seems very natural to me.. his overall pitching motion. He is somewhat higher effort than Keller or Skenes, but his whole delivery seems very natural and repetitive. Of course, a little rust... and all of that could change. Pitchers walk a fine line, and to my mind, even the smallest deviations from pattern can cause problems.
AM - Suggestion for a now or early January entry on Johan Oviedo. He's been throwing since May, and has already passed 12 months since his TJ Surgery. Good chance he could join Skenes, Jones, Keller, and Falter in the Rotation straight out of ST or shortly thereafter.
It's a nice bonus that Oviedo has options. While I usually like to disregard spring training performance, his could be important(not ERA etc, but his command). Players seem to comeback from TJ in many ways. If he is not sharp I don't think it is a negative for him or the team to send him to AAA. Finding his sharpness does not need to occur at the expense of the Major League team. Optimistically he is ready to go and he can be the swingman or the #5 starter.
It seems that often, when faced with TJ, pitchers do come back in different ways. I think mainly, the time off and the delicate and deliberate pace of recovery gives guys time to reevaluate how they injured themselves and to breaking down just how they pitch and what their game needs.
It is almost a given for pitchers to take the year and a half ride on the TJ train. Just think, pre-TJ, a pitcher's career was over. Now, it is like a career reset.
-BB
This also explains why nothing is gonna change. It makes far more sense to accept the risk in return for the reward.
I think it’s more likely he’s slated for the swingman role Ortiz had at beginning of last season. This allows for his innings to be better controlled, and most importantly leaves a spot open in rotation for 2025 NL ROY, Bubba “Ice Man” Chandler.
He will be on a strict innings limit. Plus, they will need to build him up. He’ll be lucky if he gets 60-70 innings this year.
Clearly better fit as a reliever anyways.
Command is supposed to be the last thing you get back after TJ and his wasn’t great to start with. So yeah, reliever should be it. Mike Burrows will carry the load until BC is ready.
The Yankees got the best of this one IMO. Bellinger is not Juan Soto, but in that lineup, in the AL East, he could be a 30 HR add to the lineup. He averaged 22 HR for the Cubs the last two years, and the AL East is a very nice location for a LH power hitter - has some of the shortest RF distances in MLB, led by Yankee Stadium. The Cubs will also send $5 mil - $2.5 mil in 2025 and $2.5 mil in 2026.
I think Belli increased his value by dropping his K Rate from around 26% with the Dodgers down to about 15% both years with the Cubs. He did so while increasing his BB rate to around 8% and averaging 26 Doubles/22 HR/88 RBI. The Cubs had to move one of their LH OF bats so his departure assures Pete Crow-Armstrong of staying in the starting lineup in CF, and Owen Caissie probably a bump to the majors out of ST or early in the season so they do not lose a year of control.
Increased his value?
As evidenced by the fact that he wasn't worth the contract he signed with the Cubs?
Come on dude.
Admit that you are just happy that Everson Pereira moved down a spot on the Yankees' depth chart.
It was a good move for the Yankees. They got a good OF bat and defender and gave up almost nothing. Bellinger's next season also has an opt-out, but it is also a team option with a buyout that the Cubs have guaranteed to pay 50%, so the Yankees get the much better 2 years of the contract than the Cubs, who had no option on this season.
As for the Cubs, they jumped through a lot of hoops and moved a lot of prospects to upgrade for one season at one OF position. Remember, as I have pointed out, Bellinger played 2 months last season with broken ribs. If Tucker breaks his ribs in April and plays 2 months when it hurts to breath, will his numbers look much better than Bellinger's?
EP had the better part of a year to think about his future. Strange that Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, and Everson Pereira all undershot the Club's expectations. EP is still only 24 next year. Instead, how about Jack coming out in ST and looking like the kid who played for the Pirates in 2023!
Remember, in addition to Everson Pereira, I was also on Ceddanne "DeVille" Rafaela who was very good for a Rookie for the Red Sox.
Check out that 2nd year on Belli's contract - I think Cot's had it as a Player Option.
It has a player option, but the club has an option too with a $5 million dollar buyout. The Cubs are picking up $2.5 million on that second year, whether it is salary or 1/2 of the $5 million buyout.
I believe it’s actually a pure player option. If Bellinger declines the 2026 option, he’s owed a $5M buyout. No matter what he decides, the Cubs are kicking $5M total to whatever the Yankees end up owing Bellinger - either by way of the buyout or the exercising of the player option for 2026.
According to Sportrac it is a player-only option, but the MLB story says that the Yankees can buy out his player option for $5 million.... so there seems to be some mystery here.
omg that first sentence....nearly spit Mt Dew all over my monitor....lol
This was a flat out salary dump by loveable losers. Ricketts is no Cohen.
I don't like how the Yankees let the Cubs off the hook for their dumb deal with Bellinger, and now the Cubs will likely use that savings to sign the pitcher(s) they need to become division favorites.
The Pirates will still have the edge in pitching. Oviedo should be game ready by opening day and his ERA in 2023 would have been tied with JJ in '24, therefore tied for SP #2 behind Paul Skenes. We get stronger for 2025, but with what we already have, why would we be adverse to picking up Santander's contract for say 4/$88 - $22 mil per year and a club option in the 5th year? 30 years old in 2025 and has played an average of about 155 games per year the last 3 years!
Come on Mel we all know why we would be adverse ro picking up a Santander contract. It's that 22/mil a year thing.
And the “more than 1-year” thing.
Wake me up when Nutting approves a multi-year FA deal.
I’m convinced he hates baseball and us fans.
Even factoring in Keller’s pay raise, the rotation is uber talented and dirt cheap. I really don’t think they need to spend the typical $5-8M on any veteran SP adds with Burrows, Chandler, Harrington, etc. in the wings. An add of someone like Santander/Teo to the lineup should be the priority. Plugging that kind of bat does more than merely “lengthening the lineup.”
I’d even make that kind of signing at the expense of committing any real money to any BP additions.
If only the GM prioritized winning over job security and Owner cared about winning the least little bit.
Yeah things like the Bellinger deal is what makes the Cubs the Cubs. Don’t lose all hope though, they might find a way to squander the savings yet.