Exclude a couple guys named Taillon and Cole, the diminutive 6th round pick has exceeded the combined WAR of every Pirate first round pick since Andrew McCutchen blessed this franchise.
Remarkable achievement for Adam Frazier to continue getting work into his 9th year in the league. I find myself increasingly routing for these types over the latest flavor of the week.
I promise this is a pro-Frazier and not anti-Pirate post.
Even though the Cubs offseason has been "slower" by big market standards, hiring Counsell, signing Imanaga, trading for a young first baseman that seems to have potential (Busch), and now adding Neris seems like a pretty good offseason. If they re-sign Bellinger as many expect, they'll go into next season in a stronger position than they ended last season.
Even though Ben has said otherwise, his offseason to this point seems like he's making the same mistake Huntington made in 2016, counting too heavily on players coming back from injury and prospects being ready by June, and counting on bounce-back seasons from low-cost signings.
Speaking of low-cost signings we hope will bounce back, is there a better example of the difference in the Brewers and Pirates in how they're willing to spend than us signing Tellez and hoping while the Brewers replace Tellez with Hoskins?
Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele - a late 1st rounder and 5th rounder - each projecting to be nearly a win better than the Pirates best position player and pitcher is one of those "oh shit" moments for a club like the Pittsburgh Pirates.
It's possible, and as long as Shelton is willing to move on from Tellez if he doesn't produce, there's no downside (but then I've watched Shelton stick with Gamel and others way longer than he should have).
Looking at their last healthy season (2022), I’m not sure Hoskins is worth nearly $13m per year more. I’m totally fine with a Tellez/Joe platoon at 1B, and I think Tellez is going to have a very productive year, assuming he stays healthy. I also think people are sleeping on Oliveras in RF. The narrative seems to be that he’s an extremely poor defender, but no one is looking at his defensive metrics from 2022 when he primarily played RF. His bat plays in RF, borderline top ten in xwOBA in all of MLB. Even average defense in RF makes him a very valuable and productive player in this lineup.
Yes, I think Oliveras has been our best offseason acquisition, and so sneaky good that I sometimes forget him when I'm thinking about our acquisitions :)
As for Hoskins, FG has him as being worth 2.3 WAR in '22 and $13MM would be a bargain for that kind of production. ZIPS projects 1.7 WAR and $13MM is fair or slightly better for that production (sorry, I didn't see that you're not a WAR fan but Bucsfan posted the wRC+ values which would be my second choice). Tellez, otoh, is projected to be worth 0.3 WAR by ZIPS though other systems are slightly more favorable. Tellez offers upside but the question is whether Shelton will bench him if he's little better than replacement level so that he's not taking ABs away from Joe or Cutch or someone else.
They also don’t have a ton of options against RHP if Tellez doesn’t work out.
Tellez is the type of guy you sign when you have a prospect waiting in the wings, someone coming back mid season from injury, or maybe as one guy with a backup option in case he falters. Part of my dislike of the signing resonates from the fact that they pushed all their chips in with him. He struggles you’re looking at Jake Lamb or Seth Beer, or someone like Joe against RHP.
I think this is the right argument for signing a guy like Hoskins.
The Pirates have in fact showed an ability to gain just as much production out of the position as recently as last season, but their cobbled approach of middling platoon partners requires far more to go right and little backup plan if it doesn't.
Projection systems like Oliveras as a league average bat. Not sure what you like about Tellez though. If you look at Steamer/ZIPS, .5 WAR is going to be an OK season for him. He will be worth about what Hedges was in total value. Hoskins figures to be worth 2-3x’s that.
Projections systems use Statcast data to inform their numbers. At least ZIPS does. And if you use different stats there’s still a disparity in value. Range in Tellez’s wRC+ according the differing projection systems are 97-107, with 3 of the 5 being under 100. Hoskins is projected at 114-115, according to all 5 systems.
My concern with Tellez is that he hurts the defense at 1B and with Cruz at SS and who knows at 2B, I don't want a weak defender at 1B. If he's not a 1B, then he's at DH and I think realistically that's where we need Cutch.
Agree. It’s not just the bat. They don’t have a great defense and they have a starting rotation, at least to start the year, that looks like it will allow a decent amount of contact.
Last years numbers were pulled down by an oblique injury in July and an ensuing slump when coming back off the IL. Even when including those ABs, he sported a .335 xwOBA. That’s still good for about top 10 in MLB for RFers.
I don’t know where that’s coming from. Among players with 300+ PAs in 2023, he ranked 84th in xwOBA. In wRC+ he was 141st. The projection systems all see him as just a hair above avg as a hitter, which for RF isn’t good. Defensively, both UZR and OAA rate him as brutal. Put it together and all the projections have him as just slightly above replacement. About the same as Tellez.
84th in MLB but around 11-12th for RFers. Defensively, the numbers are based on him playing LF. Look at 2022 when he primarily played RF, much better. I think this was a sneaky good pickup, there is upside here. He doesn’t have to be a world-beater, just play above average baseball.
Nobody projects him to be above avg. His defense is bottom-tier.
You’re also cherry-picking with xwOBA. He doesn’t fare as well with other stats, like wRC+. And he had what may have been an age 27 power spike, which probably helps explain the lack of enthusiasm from the projection systems. And he’ll be a RH hitter whose power is entirely to the pull side playing in PNC. There’s a lot of best-casing required to see him as better than replacement level, and only slightly better even then.
He got white hot for about a week in September. It wasn't an age 27 power spike, it was literally one week of every flyball leaving the park. I watched those games, so I know.
I’m not projecting any upside, just interpreting the data. The expected stats are average to above average, and his defensive is average as a RF. He doesn’t need platooned, which helps with roster building. I’m perfectly okay with slightly above replacement level as a baseline with some upside as my right-tail.
I really hope the Cubs do re-sign Bellinger. Ten years and $275 MM will do.
Interesting thing about the Brewers, they are projected at $116 MM right now. Not an obscene sum. But in terms of risk and asset allocation they are worlds away from us. Even if our payroll did match theirs, I’m skeptical that we’d spend $17 MM a year on a guy coming off a major injury that includes an opt out. And I’d argue that our payroll, as currently constructed could accommodate Hoskins anyways, if they were so inclined. We don’t have nearly as many expensive pieces as Yelich and their numerous players deep into arbitration.
I kind of hope the Cubs sign Bellinger too--I think the two worst contracts will go to Bellinger and Snell. Though whether it's a bad deal or not isn't that relevant to the Pirates as the Cubs have plenty to spend and as long as Bellinger makes them better, it makes the Pirates path to the postseason more difficult.
Thar type of contract isn’t likely to age well, perhaps as soon as this season, and while they have ample funds to spend, it gives them less money to spend elsewhere, and it blocks regular playing for at least one of their many good prospects.
Ehhh, I’m not sure it blocks prospects that much. They can always spin those prospects into trades for other needs. Also Bellinger is fairly flexible and may just end up at first.
Sorry Cubbies, but Neris is no Chapman. Even though his ERA looks better, his FIP, more than 2 runs higher, says he’s poised to come crashing back to earth. Hopefully every time he faces the Bucs this season.
Exclude a couple guys named Taillon and Cole, the diminutive 6th round pick has exceeded the combined WAR of every Pirate first round pick since Andrew McCutchen blessed this franchise.
Remarkable achievement for Adam Frazier to continue getting work into his 9th year in the league. I find myself increasingly routing for these types over the latest flavor of the week.
I promise this is a pro-Frazier and not anti-Pirate post.
Even though the Cubs offseason has been "slower" by big market standards, hiring Counsell, signing Imanaga, trading for a young first baseman that seems to have potential (Busch), and now adding Neris seems like a pretty good offseason. If they re-sign Bellinger as many expect, they'll go into next season in a stronger position than they ended last season.
Even though Ben has said otherwise, his offseason to this point seems like he's making the same mistake Huntington made in 2016, counting too heavily on players coming back from injury and prospects being ready by June, and counting on bounce-back seasons from low-cost signings.
Speaking of low-cost signings we hope will bounce back, is there a better example of the difference in the Brewers and Pirates in how they're willing to spend than us signing Tellez and hoping while the Brewers replace Tellez with Hoskins?
Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele - a late 1st rounder and 5th rounder - each projecting to be nearly a win better than the Pirates best position player and pitcher is one of those "oh shit" moments for a club like the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is truly why we cannot have nice things.
I agree with most everything you've said here but it's very possible Hoskins shows some rust and Rowdy has a big power year for us.
It's possible, and as long as Shelton is willing to move on from Tellez if he doesn't produce, there's no downside (but then I've watched Shelton stick with Gamel and others way longer than he should have).
Looking at their last healthy season (2022), I’m not sure Hoskins is worth nearly $13m per year more. I’m totally fine with a Tellez/Joe platoon at 1B, and I think Tellez is going to have a very productive year, assuming he stays healthy. I also think people are sleeping on Oliveras in RF. The narrative seems to be that he’s an extremely poor defender, but no one is looking at his defensive metrics from 2022 when he primarily played RF. His bat plays in RF, borderline top ten in xwOBA in all of MLB. Even average defense in RF makes him a very valuable and productive player in this lineup.
Yes, I think Oliveras has been our best offseason acquisition, and so sneaky good that I sometimes forget him when I'm thinking about our acquisitions :)
As for Hoskins, FG has him as being worth 2.3 WAR in '22 and $13MM would be a bargain for that kind of production. ZIPS projects 1.7 WAR and $13MM is fair or slightly better for that production (sorry, I didn't see that you're not a WAR fan but Bucsfan posted the wRC+ values which would be my second choice). Tellez, otoh, is projected to be worth 0.3 WAR by ZIPS though other systems are slightly more favorable. Tellez offers upside but the question is whether Shelton will bench him if he's little better than replacement level so that he's not taking ABs away from Joe or Cutch or someone else.
They also don’t have a ton of options against RHP if Tellez doesn’t work out.
Tellez is the type of guy you sign when you have a prospect waiting in the wings, someone coming back mid season from injury, or maybe as one guy with a backup option in case he falters. Part of my dislike of the signing resonates from the fact that they pushed all their chips in with him. He struggles you’re looking at Jake Lamb or Seth Beer, or someone like Joe against RHP.
I think this is the right argument for signing a guy like Hoskins.
The Pirates have in fact showed an ability to gain just as much production out of the position as recently as last season, but their cobbled approach of middling platoon partners requires far more to go right and little backup plan if it doesn't.
The Pirates had like the 10th highest WAR from the first base position last year. You’re right to be skeptical of the “big bat”!
Projection systems like Oliveras as a league average bat. Not sure what you like about Tellez though. If you look at Steamer/ZIPS, .5 WAR is going to be an OK season for him. He will be worth about what Hedges was in total value. Hoskins figures to be worth 2-3x’s that.
And I’m not a WAR guy...
WAR, huh. What is it good for? Absolutely nothin
Great song. 😆 But used properly, WAR is a useful stat.
Projections systems use Statcast data to inform their numbers. At least ZIPS does. And if you use different stats there’s still a disparity in value. Range in Tellez’s wRC+ according the differing projection systems are 97-107, with 3 of the 5 being under 100. Hoskins is projected at 114-115, according to all 5 systems.
My concern with Tellez is that he hurts the defense at 1B and with Cruz at SS and who knows at 2B, I don't want a weak defender at 1B. If he's not a 1B, then he's at DH and I think realistically that's where we need Cutch.
Agree. It’s not just the bat. They don’t have a great defense and they have a starting rotation, at least to start the year, that looks like it will allow a decent amount of contact.
Looks at Tellez’s statcast data from 2022 when he was healthy, the guy can impact the baseball, very strong expected stats.
I must be missing something on Oilveras's bat. Any help would be appreciated.
Last years numbers were pulled down by an oblique injury in July and an ensuing slump when coming back off the IL. Even when including those ABs, he sported a .335 xwOBA. That’s still good for about top 10 in MLB for RFers.
I don’t know where that’s coming from. Among players with 300+ PAs in 2023, he ranked 84th in xwOBA. In wRC+ he was 141st. The projection systems all see him as just a hair above avg as a hitter, which for RF isn’t good. Defensively, both UZR and OAA rate him as brutal. Put it together and all the projections have him as just slightly above replacement. About the same as Tellez.
84th in MLB but around 11-12th for RFers. Defensively, the numbers are based on him playing LF. Look at 2022 when he primarily played RF, much better. I think this was a sneaky good pickup, there is upside here. He doesn’t have to be a world-beater, just play above average baseball.
Nobody projects him to be above avg. His defense is bottom-tier.
You’re also cherry-picking with xwOBA. He doesn’t fare as well with other stats, like wRC+. And he had what may have been an age 27 power spike, which probably helps explain the lack of enthusiasm from the projection systems. And he’ll be a RH hitter whose power is entirely to the pull side playing in PNC. There’s a lot of best-casing required to see him as better than replacement level, and only slightly better even then.
He got white hot for about a week in September. It wasn't an age 27 power spike, it was literally one week of every flyball leaving the park. I watched those games, so I know.
I’m not projecting any upside, just interpreting the data. The expected stats are average to above average, and his defensive is average as a RF. He doesn’t need platooned, which helps with roster building. I’m perfectly okay with slightly above replacement level as a baseline with some upside as my right-tail.
I really hope the Cubs do re-sign Bellinger. Ten years and $275 MM will do.
Interesting thing about the Brewers, they are projected at $116 MM right now. Not an obscene sum. But in terms of risk and asset allocation they are worlds away from us. Even if our payroll did match theirs, I’m skeptical that we’d spend $17 MM a year on a guy coming off a major injury that includes an opt out. And I’d argue that our payroll, as currently constructed could accommodate Hoskins anyways, if they were so inclined. We don’t have nearly as many expensive pieces as Yelich and their numerous players deep into arbitration.
I kind of hope the Cubs sign Bellinger too--I think the two worst contracts will go to Bellinger and Snell. Though whether it's a bad deal or not isn't that relevant to the Pirates as the Cubs have plenty to spend and as long as Bellinger makes them better, it makes the Pirates path to the postseason more difficult.
Thar type of contract isn’t likely to age well, perhaps as soon as this season, and while they have ample funds to spend, it gives them less money to spend elsewhere, and it blocks regular playing for at least one of their many good prospects.
Ehhh, I’m not sure it blocks prospects that much. They can always spin those prospects into trades for other needs. Also Bellinger is fairly flexible and may just end up at first.
That’s even better if they stick him at first. The bat profiles worse there.
Maybe, if the bat goes backwards. There were certainly enough red flags.
I think it tells you what kind of straits our own team is in if we’re hoping for this move.
Sorry Cubbies, but Neris is no Chapman. Even though his ERA looks better, his FIP, more than 2 runs higher, says he’s poised to come crashing back to earth. Hopefully every time he faces the Bucs this season.
Neris had a few other high marks in 2023 such as a career best BABIP of only .219, and a near-unbelievable 90.5% LOB% - rare numbers.