It's not only that Celestino hit a GS, it was the whole AB that he had. Must have been 7 or 8 pitches, fouling off some tough pitches, keeping the AB alive. It was a clinic on seeing more pitches and doing damage with the pitch you want. Thumbs up.
Because of his wingspan and two-step range, I really think Cruz can be a defensive freak at shortstop. With Hayes and Triolo around him this could be the best infield in the league. Next year Hank Davis can join them at first base.
With Matt Chapman signing with the Giants, it struck me that a lot of the top FAs seemed to have signed with NL teams. I just checked, and of MLBTR's top 16, two remained unsigned (please Ben, sign Montgomery to a Chapman/Bellinger-type deal) and 13 of the other 14 signed with NL teams.
Otherwise known as the "Group of teams the Pirates need to beat out to make the postseason" vs. the "Group of teams the Pirates don't need to worry about until the WS". NL vs. AL is just shorthand.
How does Scott Boras talk teams into these deals? At this point Chapman is a mediocre player guaranteed an AAV of $17 million for the next three years. If somehow he gets his magic back, he could opt out after every year. I would be pissed if the Pirates made that deal.
I think fans underestimate the difficulty of adding wins once you get to 80, 85 or so. Getting to 75 isn’t that hard, which is why it’s so damning that it took Bungling Ben four years to do it. Sitting with a bubble team and trying to upgrade enough to reach the post-season is way harder and accounts for the inflation in FA salaries. Nuttin’s penury in the end will kill the Pirates’ chances even if a lot of the prospects work out. Only the Rays make that approach work, and they manage on a vastly higher level than the Pirates. Ben isn’t qualified to be a clubhouse attendant in Tampa.
I think the Pirates could have won more games in 2022, but am convinced that the way the Pirates used pitchers down the stretch they wanted one of the worst 3 records in baseball. (especially Wil Crowe). We did get Paul Skens out of it, but time to start winning.
Larger markets have the revenues to afford the possibility of such sunk costs, particularly on shorter term deals. I’m no Chapman fan, but if I’m them I’m doing this deal 100%.
Exactly. They’re one of the many teams in that mushy middle…a few more wins and they make the playoffs. They shouldn’t stop here either, I’m sure they’re trying to get one of the arms out there.
He had two declining years after a labrum injury in 2020. Then a great month of April followed by 5 offensively pedestrian months last season.
After 3 straight declining seasons, its pretty obvious he’s far from being a great player, and better than 50/50 bet he’ll ever be even good offensively ever again.
That’s why I said good, not great. He’s flawed, but still has very good D. It’s a three year deal, not six. And it’s less than 60 million. I know half the board here would faint at those terms, but it isn’t bad.
It is pretty bad, because he turned down a qualifying offer, which means that the As have to give up a 2nd round draft pick and international pool money to pick up a guy whom they may have only for one year. Not good... very poor GMing and a desperation move by San Fran.
Chapman is a good player, and SF is a couple of good players shy of making the playoffs. I’m assuming you meant the Giants and not the A’s. Also it’s a second round pick! That’s somewhere in the 50’s.
My god, it’s like some Bucs fans Stockholm syndromes themselves into thinking that using FA to make your team better is a bad thing.
Fangraphs had him worth 3.5 WAR last year and BR at 4.4 WAR. ZIPS projects him to be worth 4 WAR. I'm surprised he didn't get more, and the major outlets (MLBTR, ESPN, Fangraphs) projected him to get a lot more.
That said, i don't love the deal for the Giants because of the opt-outs. If he has another very good year, then he's gone. If he suddenly craters, then it will be almost like they're paying him $54MM for one year. So some risk, but teams that want to win have to assume some risk.
Given that two of the Boras four have signed for those deals, the opportunity might be there for Montgomery, though lots of teams would jump at that opportunity and since Ben and Derek now seem to be pointing to '25, I doubt we'd be one of those teams.
In many cases I’m not a fan of them either (Gerrit Cole deal is a good example). In these sorts of instances they are ok. The Giants want to roll the dice that they’ll get a good year out of him. The opt outs are just the price of taking that gamble.
At 25 yr old w tools and CF defense Celestino might be the right guy at the right time. Palacios was already under the gun from Olivares so his injury could not be worse timing. Go Triolo to start.
Yeah, I don't wish anything bad for Palacios long-term, but I also wouldn't mind him needing to start in AAA due to his injury to give Celestino some time in the majors before we need to make a decision. Obviously, assuming he continues to play well, and it's only March 2.
I'll repeat from an earlier post - Celestino just turned 25 a few weeks ago, and was in MLB for a very short period in 2021. In 2022 he played in 90 games for the Twins in CF, starting 68 games, 637 innings. Using 600 inn as a Qualifier on Fangraphs, he was 15th among 26 other CF's with a +1.7 Def. For comparison, Reynolds was 26th with a -7.8 Def. The Twins had Michael Taylor last year, and Celestino only played about 50 games at AAA, with a .781 OPS, BB% 18.0/K% 15.9. Possibly an injury?
Everything looks good except he has no Options remaining. Palacios and CSN are both LH hitters and not CF's. Olivares is a RH hitter, but not a CF either. He leads the team in AB (13), Hits (7), Tied for 1st in RBI (6), 1.307 OPS, which I think is second to TJ.
If he could turn into a meaningful piece, that would be a nice break for the Bucs…. Finding the guy that some other team messed up development on and then gave up on too soon — instead of being the team doing the messing up — is the kind of break that can really help.
Time will tell of course, and I certainly wouldn’t bet the rent on it going that way, but nonetheless an interesting guy to follow 🙂
Celestino got put on the 60 day IL last spring due to a thumb injury requiring surgery.
Consensus among Minnesota fans in the Twins subreddit is that he was brought up way too fast because their OF was obliterated by injury and they don’t have sufficient depth.
They said Celestino remained a plus defender in the show, but he only briefly flashed at the plate before flatlining. He remained too unproductive as a hitter not to send him back down when other guys got healthy.
Plus he was prone to mental mistakes. Baldelli actually benched him in 2022 after a sort of last-straw baserunning error.
He probably would not have been rushed by the Twins except that Byron Buxton could not stay healthy. For instance, in 2022 Buxton only played 51 games in CF, and Celestino was probably not ready at that point, but he got the call. He was signed by the Astro's as an IFA in 2015 for $2.25 mil, so there's a lot of talent there.
It's not only that Celestino hit a GS, it was the whole AB that he had. Must have been 7 or 8 pitches, fouling off some tough pitches, keeping the AB alive. It was a clinic on seeing more pitches and doing damage with the pitch you want. Thumbs up.
Because of his wingspan and two-step range, I really think Cruz can be a defensive freak at shortstop. With Hayes and Triolo around him this could be the best infield in the league. Next year Hank Davis can join them at first base.
Nah he'll be the next Johnny Bench!
I've loved JT. Dude is just a ballplayer.
With Matt Chapman signing with the Giants, it struck me that a lot of the top FAs seemed to have signed with NL teams. I just checked, and of MLBTR's top 16, two remained unsigned (please Ben, sign Montgomery to a Chapman/Bellinger-type deal) and 13 of the other 14 signed with NL teams.
there´s still a such thing as a National and American league
i thought they got rid of that a few years ago
Otherwise known as the "Group of teams the Pirates need to beat out to make the postseason" vs. the "Group of teams the Pirates don't need to worry about until the WS". NL vs. AL is just shorthand.
nerds ruined baseball
Not nerds, capitalists. Of course, capitalists also started baseball.
Both
How does Scott Boras talk teams into these deals? At this point Chapman is a mediocre player guaranteed an AAV of $17 million for the next three years. If somehow he gets his magic back, he could opt out after every year. I would be pissed if the Pirates made that deal.
I think fans underestimate the difficulty of adding wins once you get to 80, 85 or so. Getting to 75 isn’t that hard, which is why it’s so damning that it took Bungling Ben four years to do it. Sitting with a bubble team and trying to upgrade enough to reach the post-season is way harder and accounts for the inflation in FA salaries. Nuttin’s penury in the end will kill the Pirates’ chances even if a lot of the prospects work out. Only the Rays make that approach work, and they manage on a vastly higher level than the Pirates. Ben isn’t qualified to be a clubhouse attendant in Tampa.
Phenomenal take.
I think the Pirates could have won more games in 2022, but am convinced that the way the Pirates used pitchers down the stretch they wanted one of the worst 3 records in baseball. (especially Wil Crowe). We did get Paul Skens out of it, but time to start winning.
I don’t think it was deliberate. They ran out of arms, or ran short, due to injuries. That’s more of a function of failing to build up depth.
Let's compromise and say late in the season winning games was not high on the Pirates priority list. :)
Larger markets have the revenues to afford the possibility of such sunk costs, particularly on shorter term deals. I’m no Chapman fan, but if I’m them I’m doing this deal 100%.
Exactly. They’re one of the many teams in that mushy middle…a few more wins and they make the playoffs. They shouldn’t stop here either, I’m sure they’re trying to get one of the arms out there.
He’s not mediocre at all. Still good D and power. He’s a good player and it’s short term.
He had two declining years after a labrum injury in 2020. Then a great month of April followed by 5 offensively pedestrian months last season.
After 3 straight declining seasons, its pretty obvious he’s far from being a great player, and better than 50/50 bet he’ll ever be even good offensively ever again.
That’s why I said good, not great. He’s flawed, but still has very good D. It’s a three year deal, not six. And it’s less than 60 million. I know half the board here would faint at those terms, but it isn’t bad.
It is pretty bad, because he turned down a qualifying offer, which means that the As have to give up a 2nd round draft pick and international pool money to pick up a guy whom they may have only for one year. Not good... very poor GMing and a desperation move by San Fran.
Chapman is a good player, and SF is a couple of good players shy of making the playoffs. I’m assuming you meant the Giants and not the A’s. Also it’s a second round pick! That’s somewhere in the 50’s.
My god, it’s like some Bucs fans Stockholm syndromes themselves into thinking that using FA to make your team better is a bad thing.
San Fran has to give up a pick and pool money, not that As. Sorry for the confusion (it comes with age).
It’s surprising Giants went after him with their very obvious need for pitching.
Chapman should maintain defensive value, while likely his offense only continues to decline.
Chapman's D at 3rd will help the pitchers they do have.
They always seem to be able to pull a rabbits foot out of their hat when it comes to pitching.
Fangraphs had him worth 3.5 WAR last year and BR at 4.4 WAR. ZIPS projects him to be worth 4 WAR. I'm surprised he didn't get more, and the major outlets (MLBTR, ESPN, Fangraphs) projected him to get a lot more.
That said, i don't love the deal for the Giants because of the opt-outs. If he has another very good year, then he's gone. If he suddenly craters, then it will be almost like they're paying him $54MM for one year. So some risk, but teams that want to win have to assume some risk.
Given that two of the Boras four have signed for those deals, the opportunity might be there for Montgomery, though lots of teams would jump at that opportunity and since Ben and Derek now seem to be pointing to '25, I doubt we'd be one of those teams.
It’s the opt outs that freak me out. I honestly don’t think they should exist. The second he regains his form, he’s gone.
In many cases I’m not a fan of them either (Gerrit Cole deal is a good example). In these sorts of instances they are ok. The Giants want to roll the dice that they’ll get a good year out of him. The opt outs are just the price of taking that gamble.
Right, and if he sucks, it won’t sink them either for half a decade. Like Rendon.
At 25 yr old w tools and CF defense Celestino might be the right guy at the right time. Palacios was already under the gun from Olivares so his injury could not be worse timing. Go Triolo to start.
Yeah, I don't wish anything bad for Palacios long-term, but I also wouldn't mind him needing to start in AAA due to his injury to give Celestino some time in the majors before we need to make a decision. Obviously, assuming he continues to play well, and it's only March 2.
I'll repeat from an earlier post - Celestino just turned 25 a few weeks ago, and was in MLB for a very short period in 2021. In 2022 he played in 90 games for the Twins in CF, starting 68 games, 637 innings. Using 600 inn as a Qualifier on Fangraphs, he was 15th among 26 other CF's with a +1.7 Def. For comparison, Reynolds was 26th with a -7.8 Def. The Twins had Michael Taylor last year, and Celestino only played about 50 games at AAA, with a .781 OPS, BB% 18.0/K% 15.9. Possibly an injury?
Everything looks good except he has no Options remaining. Palacios and CSN are both LH hitters and not CF's. Olivares is a RH hitter, but not a CF either. He leads the team in AB (13), Hits (7), Tied for 1st in RBI (6), 1.307 OPS, which I think is second to TJ.
If he could turn into a meaningful piece, that would be a nice break for the Bucs…. Finding the guy that some other team messed up development on and then gave up on too soon — instead of being the team doing the messing up — is the kind of break that can really help.
Time will tell of course, and I certainly wouldn’t bet the rent on it going that way, but nonetheless an interesting guy to follow 🙂
Celestino got put on the 60 day IL last spring due to a thumb injury requiring surgery.
Consensus among Minnesota fans in the Twins subreddit is that he was brought up way too fast because their OF was obliterated by injury and they don’t have sufficient depth.
They said Celestino remained a plus defender in the show, but he only briefly flashed at the plate before flatlining. He remained too unproductive as a hitter not to send him back down when other guys got healthy.
Plus he was prone to mental mistakes. Baldelli actually benched him in 2022 after a sort of last-straw baserunning error.
It won't be hard to find a 40 man spot for him either. There's a couple guys playing their way off it.
Great info here! Youve certainly convinced me!
So I did the research recently too and learned about him being rushed into the majors by the twins and losing typical development time.
Color me intrigued
Yep, I also researched him too after he started a couple early ST games, thought who is this kid. Another org
had him in MLB getting ABs as a 20 and 21 and 22 year old. That got my attention real fast.
He probably would not have been rushed by the Twins except that Byron Buxton could not stay healthy. For instance, in 2022 Buxton only played 51 games in CF, and Celestino was probably not ready at that point, but he got the call. He was signed by the Astro's as an IFA in 2015 for $2.25 mil, so there's a lot of talent there.
Thanks for these observations----makes me put him in a new light.
I just posted the same thing, but you said it so much better! Agree completely on all points