Priester goes 4+ IP with 81 pitches, then Nick Mears relieves him. It's going to be interesting playing the Brewers. Priester works faster now, but still lacking command.
Just for the heck of it, keeping the SSS problem in mind, here's the Statcast fielding run value for the Pirates this year with appreciable playing time:
These are percentiles, right? I see at the Statcast website that IKF is second worst among SS's with at least 100 innings and Cruz is tied for worst among CF's with at least 100 innings, while Hayes is best among 3rd basemen.
After reading the recent Fangraphs article on him this AM, I'm shocked Cruz isn't lower. Not much else stands out here, all seems to match the eye test. Shame how good Hayes is but still barely produces any positive value.
Seems to be a problem up the middle. Cruz, I suppose, you could argue just needs time. But there's no way Birdbrain will own up to IKF's performance. We'll be stuck with him all year. Catcher isn't strong, either. Bart really isn't very good defensively.
The team's best IF alignment probably has Triolo at SS. Nick G was 61st percentile last year, so 2B is OK, should focus on who hits the best. Valdez' rating is mostly at 1B, so he seems to be fine there.
I would say moving Hayes to SS is the best alignment. Then you can try out Valdez at 3B for when Horwitz comes back. IKF at 2B until Gonzalez comes back, then utility. This gives you the most bang with the bat with what you have.
Jason Kendall? Other former players as coaches? I'm not in on Don Kelly or others infected by BC or DS to take over. A quick change might still salvage the season from historically awful to middling in the Central. But it's gotta be in the line of cleaning house - halfway won't do it.
If it's a midseason change, I think going with Kelly makes sense as a trial run. I don't see how it could hurt and it could help. If they go with Kendall or, say, David Ross who I think was good with the Cubs, then it would be better for them to start in the offseason instead of in the middle of a season anyway.
There is not point in conducting a search for a new manager with the GM who has produced the roster still at the helm. Promote Kelly, see how he does, and let a new GM find a manager.
The biggest thing is to hire a new GM during the season, so he can use the season to become familiar with the organization and then bring in new people in the off-season. Hiring a GM in the off-season gives him no time to evaluate things before he has to look through the financials and budgets, negotiate contracts, handle free agency and arbitration, evaluate and hire minor-league staff, navigate international amateur free agency, and put together coherent rosters for a major league team and 7 minor-league affiliates (if we include the 2 DSL teams).
Nutting could always pull the ole "We are putting someone over you" routine and hire a "Director of Operations" between Williams and Cherington such that Cherington has to seek approval from this person before any decision. He can then look over the organization, the personnel, and the processes as the season moves along. There is a decent chance that Cherington will just resign (if he doesn't have any years left on his contract) rather than having someone looking over his shoulder constantly.
More than decent. The Red Sox did the same thing, hiring Dombrowski to straighten things out after two last place finishes. They asked Cherington to stay, but accountability is obviously his greatest fear, and he fled.
In my opinion, May 15th should be Nutting's deadline for Cherington. If the team is around 500, he buys some time. If the trajectory is more of the same, let him go and have a short list ready to move on for his replacement.
If it's the latter, give the new GM a bit of time to analyze the system, prepare for the draft, and potentially make a trade or 3 using players they know won't be back next year (Heaney, IKF...).
Use the rest of the year to really find out what is on the team and upper minors and try to build a plan to be competitive in '26.
Be a trendsetter, not a follower. It makes more sense to make a change now than in the off-season. The new GM will have to spend the whole of next year just seeing where he is at with the organization and the personnel. Let him see now.
If they're thinking of promoting from within the FO, then that makes sense. If they want to look outside, say to hire out of Milwaukee's or TB's FO, would they have a reduced pool if trying to make a midseason change?
I would think the opposite, most of the top candidates are well known and their availability.
They would have a low pressure situation to evaluate the system, know a few definite trade chips, target players they think would help the organization, and have a good situation with at least quality starting pitching at the mlb and upper minors.
The new GM wouldn't be under pressure to win overnight, while being able to get firsthand evaluations of the organization. They could use an in house manager like Kelly while searching for a new one or they like what they see and keep him. That goes with almost any position through the organization, again not under the pressure to make changes overnight.
This is where having Williams really hurts. The best he can do is hire a search firm and we know how that worked out last time. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, just that all of our current problems started when nutting went with a hockey guy as president.
Yes. The new GM should be given some time to evaluate the scouting process and how the scouts perform, how they assemble the draft board, what their priorities and methods are. Why wait for all of this?
Not to mention, do we really want Cherington to manage another trade deadline? Has he acquired anyone or anything of any worth in any trade in 5+ years. Do you want him moving Heaney or Ferguson, to say nothing of Reynolds or Keller?
Cutch wasn't criticizing the fans but did comment on how fan angst might make it tougher on younger players to produce. In that case, maybe going on the road is what they need (despite the evidence offered by being 2-8 on the road).
The biggest problem with the coaches and accountability is that it seems uneven. Some players are held accountable and others can get away with just about anything (or with doing nothing). To a degree, it's appropriate that veterans get a longer leash than first- or second-year players, but it seems more inconsistent than it should be.
For those who don’t think IKF can play SS, his Statcast rankings so far: 17th percentile in arm strength, 3rd in range, 5th in fielding run value. Yikes.
Mentioned last week that it wouldn't be the worst outcome if Termarr can hit like Valdez. They seem to have similar build and skillset. Now is that sufficient for a #1/4 pick is the question?
And now Termarr has a knee injury, collided with an OFer on Friday. Ooof. EDIT: He was back in the lineup Sunday.
Ugh you're right youre right I should be put on probation for any sign of wavering faith! I will provide all refreshments at this week's meeting as my penance
Seeing your comment about Cutch, I checked and found Pham, who’s barely younger than him, has about 25% more PAs than Cutch. Wtf????
These dimwits blather about needing Pham and Frazier for veteran leadership. They saw all the leadership needed with Cutch’s comments yesterday. He understands the team’s situation a billion zillion times better than they do. And I’d far rather have the other guys watch Cutch’s approach at the plate than listen to Pham.
Cutch is the one guy I could tolerate a veteranosity approach for how much hes done for this team and city and his track record... yet hes producing and they still are sitting him
Nah....gotta go outside the organization. Graves has been apart of the mediocrity since 2008, it's insidious and would seep into everyone in the FO and field coaches. Gotta clean house as far as the GM and field coaches.
The reality is that if they fire Shelton they have to go with an interim manager and then do a full on hiring process in the off season. While I happen to believe that Kelly has to be part of the problem, I think he’s the most plausible candidate for the interim position. And if there is a noticeable turnaround then you consider him for the permanent job.
The real surprise would be Nutting and Williams having the replacement manager simultaneous with the termination.......ah, but that kind of urgency is asking way too much with those two!
Well, if we're dreaming - Cruz and Skeenes sign 7 year extentions. Pham and Fraiser retire to sell Amway and the "Wooooo" is outlawed at stadiums around the world. The Death Penalty is on the table.
The A+ GBO team knew it was your last game and two 21 year olds Esmerlyn Valdez and Shalin Polanco came through pushing 6 runs across to give you a positive sendoff. A very good ballclub so far and lots to look forward to if they can maintain the positives shown with the bats.
Liover Peguero is having a very strong start to the 2025 season at the plate - BA, OPS, and the BB/K % are all excellent at AAA. A steady visitor to the daily Top Exit Velocity group and a good glove in the MI, he is somebody the Pirates should be looking at to take over for IKF. Be a good time to get him up for use at both 2B and SS. Suwinski continues to struggle, and still has an MiLB Option. Adam Frazier can help out in the OF when needed.
Thought that another loss would have had Derek Shelton searching for moving companies this morning, but I guess we still cannot see that as the best move that can be made at this time. Just a ridiculous situation. Shelton came with no MLB experience as a Manager and has guided this team to historically poor performances in his first 5 years, and the team has been even worse in year 6!
I do feel bad for Shelton. Year 6 and he's given a club not all that much better from having to roll out Vanmeter, Hoy Park, and Bligh Madris regularly. The roster stinks, and it's not something that can be fixed with good vibes from a necklace.
I only feel bad for Shelton because he was put into a position in which he was immensely unqualified. He obviously did not have top talent to work with but he manages with little instinct and his moves and lineups are baffling.
Six years of pretending to rebuild and they’re hobbling onto the field with Enmanuel Valdez batting cleanup, two washed-up veterans who haven’t been good since 2019, and various struggling prospects to whom the Mendoza Line is a faraway dream. That may be the single biggest GM-level failure the sport has ever seen.
Especially given their draft position: two #1 overall picks, and all picks in the top 10.
The other thing is all the failed trades. The approach in my view was correct: go for upside. But Cherington managed to trade Marte, Bell, Taillon, Musgrove, and others with almost nothing to show for it. I’m estimating the exact numbers but per Jason Mackey Cherington has traded away something like 67 WAR in major league performance post trades and received 13 in return. That’s really hard to do.
Going forward, I absolutely would not do a teardown. I’ve come to the conclusion that tanking and teardowns are just excuses for small market teams to zero out their payrolls. The Rays have had only four losing seasons since Nuttin took over, and two of those were just barely under .500.
One other thing: the draft lottery pretty much destroyed the purpose of tanking. If you aren’t necessarily picking higher, and the payroll savings don’t reallocate to future years, then you’re absolutely correct. What the hell is the point?
Tanking in baseball to get a draft pick is stupid because even the 1-1 pick doesn't have the value it does in other sports. And also because it's very hard to lose 100 games, even on purpose, so you're at high risk of somebody else "winning" the pick. Tanking in the lottery era is somewhere far beyond stupid.
Absolutely. Baseball is not the NBA or the NHL where a couple of high draft picks can turn a franchise around from worst in the league to best. There is no reason to tank or tear down anything ever in baseball. Baseball requires the acquisition of talent from a range of sources and from various picks in a draft.
Yeah, I don't think they're that far away--maybe three position players to go with Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes, Bart, Gonzales, and Horwitz (I'm still putting faith in Horwitz). A good GM would jump at the chance to supplement what we have with a few quality players to become a contender in the weakest division in MLB.
My preference would be to give the current roster a makeover. Focus on defense up the middle and power bats at the corners. Glove first SS’s and CF’s are widely available in FA at budget prices. If pitching is going to be the centerpiece why not lean into all the way and put a first class defense behind it?
Don’t disagree. I wouldn’t do a teardown, but I’d make huge changes. I’ve been saying for a long time that they’re half a roster or more from being good. The pivotal question, if the team gets a legit GM, is whether to trade Skenes, which I wouldn’t. Like you, I’d try to build around the pitching, which means wholesale changes elsewhere.
I imagine getting less than 9K fans for a Skenes start, even if it's a Monday against the Nats, is what's going grind Bob's gears. When they can't even maximize the revenue/profits for their one main sole attraction every single night he steps on the mound.
If Bob actually shakes things up, then I think a GM would have the opportunity to do a quick flip of trading off upper level prospects (mainly arms) that could create a competitive club. If Bob is going to sit on his thumbs and wait, then I think a full teardown will be inevitable. Ben has already wasted a chunk of Keller and Reynold's prime years, and on verge of wasting two full years of Skenes. Wait any longer, and might be talking about MAYBE a good 2 year window WITH Skenes.
I wouldn't trade any of the upper level arms at this point. This season is gone. Forget about it. They need Johnson and Brannigan to do well and come up. Move salary: Reynolds, Keller, and Hayes (if possible). Extend Skenes. Shoot for a window in 2-3 years with Johnson as the centerpiece bat and hope some current complex league and A-ball guys. like Griffin, are knocking on the door.
Let the pitchers get established. Wait for the hitters. Then, when you have Johnson up and some others knocking on the door, move pitchers to fill holes.
Not against all that, issue would hinge on whether they can actually extend Skenes (I think they could), or if they'd have to maximize his return with a year or year and half left of control. Then hoping whomever makes that trade actually gets value back. 2-3 years is still a lot of time where a lot can happen, and they'll have to have moved on from some of their arms they've built up.
And all while hoping the hitting dev has improved.
Valdez does look like he can hit some. He’ll probably be the guy on the outside when Horwitz and/or Nick returns. They’d never sacrifice Frazier’s or Pham’s playing time for him.
Valdez is definitely worth keeping, even if it means that Frazier will be DFA'd and the Pirates stuck for the remainder of the stupid FA signing. 6 EBH in about 50 AB and fields well. We need him at 1B until Horwitz returns, and possibly longer.
That's why I laugh when I think about how people complained about Huntington "drafting too many shortstops". At least they can be moved and generally hold their own, he just didn't pick players that couid hit. Ben and company are acquiring the most defensively limited "utility" players, who we're lucky if they even hit.
My complaint about NH towards the end was that he completely lost the focus on ceiling. It seemed like every move he made —- whether in trades or the draft —- was to find guys who would for sure make the majors but offered little upside: Tucker, Newman, Craig, getting Moran in the Cole trade instead of Kyle Tucker, and on and on.
Priester goes 4+ IP with 81 pitches, then Nick Mears relieves him. It's going to be interesting playing the Brewers. Priester works faster now, but still lacking command.
Just for the heck of it, keeping the SSS problem in mind, here's the Statcast fielding run value for the Pirates this year with appreciable playing time:
Bart -- 36th
Endy -- 2nd (this is mainly at 1B obviously)
Valdez -- 69th
Frazier -- 64th
IKF -- 5th
Triolo -- 78th
Hayes -- 98th
Cruz -- 13th
Pham -- 56th
Suwinski -- 43rd
Cutch, Canario, Davis and Reynolds didn't qualify
These are percentiles, right? I see at the Statcast website that IKF is second worst among SS's with at least 100 innings and Cruz is tied for worst among CF's with at least 100 innings, while Hayes is best among 3rd basemen.
After reading the recent Fangraphs article on him this AM, I'm shocked Cruz isn't lower. Not much else stands out here, all seems to match the eye test. Shame how good Hayes is but still barely produces any positive value.
Seems to be a problem up the middle. Cruz, I suppose, you could argue just needs time. But there's no way Birdbrain will own up to IKF's performance. We'll be stuck with him all year. Catcher isn't strong, either. Bart really isn't very good defensively.
The team's best IF alignment probably has Triolo at SS. Nick G was 61st percentile last year, so 2B is OK, should focus on who hits the best. Valdez' rating is mostly at 1B, so he seems to be fine there.
I wonder what Hank's would be? By my eye test he seems to be very passable back there
I would say moving Hayes to SS is the best alignment. Then you can try out Valdez at 3B for when Horwitz comes back. IKF at 2B until Gonzalez comes back, then utility. This gives you the most bang with the bat with what you have.
Jason Kendall? Other former players as coaches? I'm not in on Don Kelly or others infected by BC or DS to take over. A quick change might still salvage the season from historically awful to middling in the Central. But it's gotta be in the line of cleaning house - halfway won't do it.
im for Kendall too
As for Kelly being infected by DS, by all accounts DS is very stubborn so we really don't know how much input Kelly has been allowed.
If it's a midseason change, I think going with Kelly makes sense as a trial run. I don't see how it could hurt and it could help. If they go with Kendall or, say, David Ross who I think was good with the Cubs, then it would be better for them to start in the offseason instead of in the middle of a season anyway.
There is not point in conducting a search for a new manager with the GM who has produced the roster still at the helm. Promote Kelly, see how he does, and let a new GM find a manager.
The biggest thing is to hire a new GM during the season, so he can use the season to become familiar with the organization and then bring in new people in the off-season. Hiring a GM in the off-season gives him no time to evaluate things before he has to look through the financials and budgets, negotiate contracts, handle free agency and arbitration, evaluate and hire minor-league staff, navigate international amateur free agency, and put together coherent rosters for a major league team and 7 minor-league affiliates (if we include the 2 DSL teams).
If recent history is any guide, a POBO or GM may be hired before the end of the season, but likely August/September. So…not much time.
If BC is fired relatively early this season (June), it’s going to be Graves or some other interim sap at the helm for the next couple of months.
Nutting could always pull the ole "We are putting someone over you" routine and hire a "Director of Operations" between Williams and Cherington such that Cherington has to seek approval from this person before any decision. He can then look over the organization, the personnel, and the processes as the season moves along. There is a decent chance that Cherington will just resign (if he doesn't have any years left on his contract) rather than having someone looking over his shoulder constantly.
More than decent. The Red Sox did the same thing, hiring Dombrowski to straighten things out after two last place finishes. They asked Cherington to stay, but accountability is obviously his greatest fear, and he fled.
Brandon Gomes president of baseball operations sounds decent to me.
That’s who they should hire…Dealin’ Dave Dombrowski.
Exactly the model that I was thinking of.
If we could hire Earl Weaver before firing Birdbrain, I'd do that because Weaver would probably kneecap the boob.
In my opinion, May 15th should be Nutting's deadline for Cherington. If the team is around 500, he buys some time. If the trajectory is more of the same, let him go and have a short list ready to move on for his replacement.
If it's the latter, give the new GM a bit of time to analyze the system, prepare for the draft, and potentially make a trade or 3 using players they know won't be back next year (Heaney, IKF...).
Use the rest of the year to really find out what is on the team and upper minors and try to build a plan to be competitive in '26.
It’s just not realistic to fire a GM in the run up to the draft. Can anyone think of a GM fired in May?
Be a trendsetter, not a follower. It makes more sense to make a change now than in the off-season. The new GM will have to spend the whole of next year just seeing where he is at with the organization and the personnel. Let him see now.
Go all out, offer Brandon Gomes president of baseball operations.
If they're thinking of promoting from within the FO, then that makes sense. If they want to look outside, say to hire out of Milwaukee's or TB's FO, would they have a reduced pool if trying to make a midseason change?
I would think the opposite, most of the top candidates are well known and their availability.
They would have a low pressure situation to evaluate the system, know a few definite trade chips, target players they think would help the organization, and have a good situation with at least quality starting pitching at the mlb and upper minors.
The new GM wouldn't be under pressure to win overnight, while being able to get firsthand evaluations of the organization. They could use an in house manager like Kelly while searching for a new one or they like what they see and keep him. That goes with almost any position through the organization, again not under the pressure to make changes overnight.
This is where having Williams really hurts. The best he can do is hire a search firm and we know how that worked out last time. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, just that all of our current problems started when nutting went with a hockey guy as president.
Yes. The new GM should be given some time to evaluate the scouting process and how the scouts perform, how they assemble the draft board, what their priorities and methods are. Why wait for all of this?
Not to mention, do we really want Cherington to manage another trade deadline? Has he acquired anyone or anything of any worth in any trade in 5+ years. Do you want him moving Heaney or Ferguson, to say nothing of Reynolds or Keller?
Yep, but urgency isn't usually on the back burner. I was surprised that Nutting preemptively got the bobblehead situation taken care of, baby steps.
I agree. May 15, 2022.
Was that an off day as well? lol there's a lot of them.
With this group there haven't been many "on" days!
Triston McKenzie DFA is a surprise.
If we could get him on a minor league deal, would be a fun project to try to fix
Man is that Greensboro team fun to watch.
Cutch wasn't criticizing the fans but did comment on how fan angst might make it tougher on younger players to produce. In that case, maybe going on the road is what they need (despite the evidence offered by being 2-8 on the road).
If the coaches aren't going to hold anybody accountable, maybe the fans will!
The biggest problem with the coaches and accountability is that it seems uneven. Some players are held accountable and others can get away with just about anything (or with doing nothing). To a degree, it's appropriate that veterans get a longer leash than first- or second-year players, but it seems more inconsistent than it should be.
For those who don’t think IKF can play SS, his Statcast rankings so far: 17th percentile in arm strength, 3rd in range, 5th in fielding run value. Yikes.
But their underlying metrics surely show IKF being a plus defender.
Ben’s iPad says the errors were fake news.
The filters are wrong.
Mentioned last week that it wouldn't be the worst outcome if Termarr can hit like Valdez. They seem to have similar build and skillset. Now is that sufficient for a #1/4 pick is the question?
And now Termarr has a knee injury, collided with an OFer on Friday. Ooof. EDIT: He was back in the lineup Sunday.
That's actually not a bad comp. Although, Valdez seems to have a better hit tool.
Valdez is 26, Termarr still only 20. Hoping for a higher ceiling of course for Termarr.
None of these are going to fix this dumpster fire, but we gotta try something:
1. Can Shelton (this roster is bad not his fault but so it goes), promote Kelly
2. Mlod to the pen, bring up any of the AAA prospect arms, Nicolas down
3. Cutch plays at least 5x a week except against RHSP that has plus velocity (I think I saw he's struggling with that a bit)
4. Frazier phantom IL, yorke up
5. Pham phantom IL, gorski up - vets still get their paycheck and even if gorski strikes out 70% of the time its not really gonna be any worse
6. Hire a new positions coach to teach someone how to field
7. Fire Travis Williams for having his head up his ass
8. Promote Brault to head broadccaster
9. Hire Bmac as trading guru
Gorski up not Cook up?????? I’m submitting my resignation from BCFC, when the prez and founder stop believing…….
🤣
Ugh you're right youre right I should be put on probation for any sign of wavering faith! I will provide all refreshments at this week's meeting as my penance
Love all these
Seeing your comment about Cutch, I checked and found Pham, who’s barely younger than him, has about 25% more PAs than Cutch. Wtf????
These dimwits blather about needing Pham and Frazier for veteran leadership. They saw all the leadership needed with Cutch’s comments yesterday. He understands the team’s situation a billion zillion times better than they do. And I’d far rather have the other guys watch Cutch’s approach at the plate than listen to Pham.
Cutch is the one guy I could tolerate a veteranosity approach for how much hes done for this team and city and his track record... yet hes producing and they still are sitting him
Pfft. They won't call up Gorski, Yorke, or even Cook for that matter. They hate them, for some reason.
Anyone know why Yorke isn't playing in Indy?
He's been playing, just not playing well.
The BCFC may have to start a protest
Ben Cherington fan club? 😁
agree with all this except for the Kelly part
hoping they let Kevan Graves take the interim for the rest of the season
Nah....gotta go outside the organization. Graves has been apart of the mediocrity since 2008, it's insidious and would seep into everyone in the FO and field coaches. Gotta clean house as far as the GM and field coaches.
AFAIC, they can get a monkey with a dart board as interim GM. Couldn't possibly be a downgrade.
Find winners! I don't care if a guy is managing a winning team in the complex league or an independent league or the DSL. If he wins, he wins.
The reality is that if they fire Shelton they have to go with an interim manager and then do a full on hiring process in the off season. While I happen to believe that Kelly has to be part of the problem, I think he’s the most plausible candidate for the interim position. And if there is a noticeable turnaround then you consider him for the permanent job.
The real surprise would be Nutting and Williams having the replacement manager simultaneous with the termination.......ah, but that kind of urgency is asking way too much with those two!
Off day after Easter = perfect day to fire the manager, general manager, president, and announce the team is for sale.
And win the lottery!
Well, if we're dreaming - Cruz and Skeenes sign 7 year extentions. Pham and Fraiser retire to sell Amway and the "Wooooo" is outlawed at stadiums around the world. The Death Penalty is on the table.
All that matters is Ercol shoved for 3 innings on his 21st birthday
The A+ GBO team knew it was your last game and two 21 year olds Esmerlyn Valdez and Shalin Polanco came through pushing 6 runs across to give you a positive sendoff. A very good ballclub so far and lots to look forward to if they can maintain the positives shown with the bats.
Liover Peguero is having a very strong start to the 2025 season at the plate - BA, OPS, and the BB/K % are all excellent at AAA. A steady visitor to the daily Top Exit Velocity group and a good glove in the MI, he is somebody the Pirates should be looking at to take over for IKF. Be a good time to get him up for use at both 2B and SS. Suwinski continues to struggle, and still has an MiLB Option. Adam Frazier can help out in the OF when needed.
Thought that another loss would have had Derek Shelton searching for moving companies this morning, but I guess we still cannot see that as the best move that can be made at this time. Just a ridiculous situation. Shelton came with no MLB experience as a Manager and has guided this team to historically poor performances in his first 5 years, and the team has been even worse in year 6!
I do feel bad for Shelton. Year 6 and he's given a club not all that much better from having to roll out Vanmeter, Hoy Park, and Bligh Madris regularly. The roster stinks, and it's not something that can be fixed with good vibes from a necklace.
I only feel bad for Shelton because he was put into a position in which he was immensely unqualified. He obviously did not have top talent to work with but he manages with little instinct and his moves and lineups are baffling.
Six years of pretending to rebuild and they’re hobbling onto the field with Enmanuel Valdez batting cleanup, two washed-up veterans who haven’t been good since 2019, and various struggling prospects to whom the Mendoza Line is a faraway dream. That may be the single biggest GM-level failure the sport has ever seen.
Especially given their draft position: two #1 overall picks, and all picks in the top 10.
The other thing is all the failed trades. The approach in my view was correct: go for upside. But Cherington managed to trade Marte, Bell, Taillon, Musgrove, and others with almost nothing to show for it. I’m estimating the exact numbers but per Jason Mackey Cherington has traded away something like 67 WAR in major league performance post trades and received 13 in return. That’s really hard to do.
Agree with everything you said except Enmanuel. Dude looks like a legit bat vs RHP.
Once Gonzales is healthy, I don't see how they can roster Frazier.
Either way, BC and DS are done after this season. They're not going to survive "sell the team" chants at every home game.
Question is what will the next GM do? Build with the existing core or burnt it to the ground?
Going forward, I absolutely would not do a teardown. I’ve come to the conclusion that tanking and teardowns are just excuses for small market teams to zero out their payrolls. The Rays have had only four losing seasons since Nuttin took over, and two of those were just barely under .500.
One other thing: the draft lottery pretty much destroyed the purpose of tanking. If you aren’t necessarily picking higher, and the payroll savings don’t reallocate to future years, then you’re absolutely correct. What the hell is the point?
Tanking in baseball to get a draft pick is stupid because even the 1-1 pick doesn't have the value it does in other sports. And also because it's very hard to lose 100 games, even on purpose, so you're at high risk of somebody else "winning" the pick. Tanking in the lottery era is somewhere far beyond stupid.
Absolutely. Baseball is not the NBA or the NHL where a couple of high draft picks can turn a franchise around from worst in the league to best. There is no reason to tank or tear down anything ever in baseball. Baseball requires the acquisition of talent from a range of sources and from various picks in a draft.
Yeah, I don't think they're that far away--maybe three position players to go with Reynolds, Cruz, Hayes, Bart, Gonzales, and Horwitz (I'm still putting faith in Horwitz). A good GM would jump at the chance to supplement what we have with a few quality players to become a contender in the weakest division in MLB.
Oh just three position players is all?
My preference would be to give the current roster a makeover. Focus on defense up the middle and power bats at the corners. Glove first SS’s and CF’s are widely available in FA at budget prices. If pitching is going to be the centerpiece why not lean into all the way and put a first class defense behind it?
Don’t disagree. I wouldn’t do a teardown, but I’d make huge changes. I’ve been saying for a long time that they’re half a roster or more from being good. The pivotal question, if the team gets a legit GM, is whether to trade Skenes, which I wouldn’t. Like you, I’d try to build around the pitching, which means wholesale changes elsewhere.
I imagine getting less than 9K fans for a Skenes start, even if it's a Monday against the Nats, is what's going grind Bob's gears. When they can't even maximize the revenue/profits for their one main sole attraction every single night he steps on the mound.
If Bob actually shakes things up, then I think a GM would have the opportunity to do a quick flip of trading off upper level prospects (mainly arms) that could create a competitive club. If Bob is going to sit on his thumbs and wait, then I think a full teardown will be inevitable. Ben has already wasted a chunk of Keller and Reynold's prime years, and on verge of wasting two full years of Skenes. Wait any longer, and might be talking about MAYBE a good 2 year window WITH Skenes.
I wouldn't trade any of the upper level arms at this point. This season is gone. Forget about it. They need Johnson and Brannigan to do well and come up. Move salary: Reynolds, Keller, and Hayes (if possible). Extend Skenes. Shoot for a window in 2-3 years with Johnson as the centerpiece bat and hope some current complex league and A-ball guys. like Griffin, are knocking on the door.
Let the pitchers get established. Wait for the hitters. Then, when you have Johnson up and some others knocking on the door, move pitchers to fill holes.
I like TJ a lot, but I don’t think he’s a “build around” type of bat or player.
Not against all that, issue would hinge on whether they can actually extend Skenes (I think they could), or if they'd have to maximize his return with a year or year and half left of control. Then hoping whomever makes that trade actually gets value back. 2-3 years is still a lot of time where a lot can happen, and they'll have to have moved on from some of their arms they've built up.
And all while hoping the hitting dev has improved.
Either way there's a lot of moving parts
Valdez does look like he can hit some. He’ll probably be the guy on the outside when Horwitz and/or Nick returns. They’d never sacrifice Frazier’s or Pham’s playing time for him.
Valdez is definitely worth keeping, even if it means that Frazier will be DFA'd and the Pirates stuck for the remainder of the stupid FA signing. 6 EBH in about 50 AB and fields well. We need him at 1B until Horwitz returns, and possibly longer.
Frazier dfa’d? Hahahahahahahahahaha!
That's why I laugh when I think about how people complained about Huntington "drafting too many shortstops". At least they can be moved and generally hold their own, he just didn't pick players that couid hit. Ben and company are acquiring the most defensively limited "utility" players, who we're lucky if they even hit.
My complaint about NH towards the end was that he completely lost the focus on ceiling. It seemed like every move he made —- whether in trades or the draft —- was to find guys who would for sure make the majors but offered little upside: Tucker, Newman, Craig, getting Moran in the Cole trade instead of Kyle Tucker, and on and on.
Man we badly need a shakeup in this org
Make Cutch a player coach.