The latest Hall of Fame class is announced, Pipeline releases their best third base prospects and another site releases their top prospects for the Pirates
Parker’s sin is that 90% of those big markers he hit were by age 28. Then his career fell off a cliff through most of the 80’s till he resurrected it briefly with Cincinnati. He’s kind of like Mattingly with a longer coda, which lessens his chances even though he played longer.
I know the perception of Dave Parker is he fell off a cliff in the 80's, but in actuality he just slid some from being the top of the mountain. His down years from 1980 to 1990, he was a 5 time all-star and 3 time silver slugger winner. From age 34 to 39, he received 4 years of mvp votes (including a 2nd).
If you want to describe someone that fell off a cliff, it would new inductee Joe Mauer, Mauer's last season of catching half a season was age 27. He quit catching permantly at age 30. No all star games, silver slugger or any bold types after that.
-I can't see a case for Mauer over Parker. And for the record, I thing Mattingly should be in as well.
Any objective look at his career in the 80’s shows his numbers there are superficial. He hit some homers and knocked in some runs (which MVP voters had an infantile obsession with for the longest time). It’s gonna make anyone look good batting behind the likes of Eric Davis and then the Bash Brothers. He was horrid defensively after 79, basically a DH in the NL before he made his way to Oakland. I don’t think he’d be the worst selection, though. Certainly better than Maz. He was a great player legitimately for 5-6 years. That’s enough for some people; worked for Sandy Koufax. But looking at it closely, there isn’t much else there to make his case to my eyes.
I don’t think it’s fair to compare a catcher to other position players. Catchers are under a much larger physical strain than basically any other player. To me, they get a larger error bar with that.
As for Mattingly, I was raised a Yankee fan before decamping to Pgh and Donnie was my favorite. I can’t, for the life of me, think that he has a good case. Keith Hernandez had a longer and better career and is a better candidate.
Joe Mauer was not an everyday catcher. He only caught 100 games 5 years and only one season of over 120 games. I am a numbers guys, but I think too many voters use numbers wrong. Mattingly might have been the most popular player in baseball over a 7 year period, partially based on how good he was. Can't say that about Joe Mauer. And we can't give Joe Mauer a free pass to the HOF because he was a part time catcher for part of his career.
I have no idea how Mauer was voted in. Standards have dropped significantly. Even Helton was dubious. The only legitimate HOFer in this class was Beltre IMO.
I think voters viewed Mauer as a catcher who played some first base, but it was really a first baseman that caught some early in his career. My thought is if you lowered the standards (which they have) for today's generation, it is time to take another look at guys you left out when the standards were much higher.
Very happy for Todd Helton and his family, and somebody I had the privilege to watch play HS ball at Knoxville Central HS, and then at UT where he played both Football and Baseball. Best natural hitter I had ever seen, and he and my son became friendly enemies because we had to play them in our HS District. How good was Knox Central HS in those days? Todd's in the HOF, Bubba Trammell was drafted and played 6 years in MLB where he finished with a 260 BA, 82 HR, and Chris Freeman was drafted and played 4 years in the Bluejays org finishing at the AA level.
MLBTR has an article claiming Pirates are interested in Noah Syndergaard as a bounce back candidate.
IMHO, even though Pirates need another SP to start season, this guy isn’t the answer. He’s never come close to regaining the form he exhibited prior to TJ surgery several years ago. No reason to believe he will this year.
I’d much rather see Ortiz, QP, and/or Roansy in the rotation than Thor.
I'm hoping they were there to watch Lorenzen and were just being diplomatic when asked if they were interested in Syndergaard.
Of course there is a non-zero possibility that Syndergaard just took an extra year to get his stuff back after TJ and the logic the Dodgers applied last year was just applied a year too soon.
My take is basically if the Dodgers and Guardians of all teams couldn't get anything out of him, it ain't worth the Pirates time, unless it's for something like $2M at most, filled with incentives. Assuming he showed a modicum of his old velo in the recent throwing session.
Well stated and I agree it would be a mistake. We need to put our own kids out there - you list Ortiz, QP, and Roansy, but we also have guys like Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, and Carmen Mlodzinski who had an excellent year for the Pirates in 2023 out of the BP. Then in Jun or Jul we get BRU, and Burrows back from TJ. Ashcraft, Shortridge, and others can also be possibles as the season progresses.
Am I correct that Contreras and Falter are both out of Options? Ortiz and QP both have 2 Options remaining.
I don't put a lot of stock in the national rankings but if they're anywhere near accurate, we're not giving Jebb nearly enough credit (or the FO for drafting him). During the draft there seemed to be general disappointment with his selection, and I can't recall a post where someone is that high on him. However, national outlets are ranking him right there with guys that we as a community are high on as well as ranking him consistently as our #2 position player prospect (the former is more impressive to me than the latter, i.e., that he's being ranked in the same tier as Solo and Bubba).
Maybe it's a bit of shiny-new-toy bias, but most seem focused on his very impressive K rate. It will be interesting to follow him this season to see if he does, in fact, move quickly through the system.
I think it's combination of having a lot of unknowns for prospects, at least in the terms of there's a lot of questions with their prospects of "What exactly are they?". Paired with a lack of proven overall hitting prospects in the system, and then he does do certain things very well. Well enough that he's a pretty safe bet to make the majors, which carries a lot of weight.
With Jebb, the question becomes what exactly is the ceiling there? As Melkel mentions, the Pirates have quite a few similar profiled players, and so far the best the Pirates can say is they developed them to the point of being bench pieces. In watching Jebb so far, I can't see much more than that as it stands. There were a couple balls in play that I was surprised at the recorded exit velocity, but we're talking a shot up the middle that looked like a soft line drive that looked like a low-70's bloop being mid-80's velo. But then he'd square up a ball, and it was mid-90's, at best. Kind of like Marcano's first Pirates MLB tour, where him "squaring up a ball" was a warning track 95 MPH flyball at best.
All that to say, I think a Top 10 ranking is deserved with his floor as a pretty safe bet to make the majors.
I'm pretty sure Jebb was the top of the list of guys I didn't want them to pick (right before we picked him), because the system is full of his profile. We're going to take Griff O'Ferrall in this years draft just to piss me off.
I'm going to be interested in how this upcoming draft goes. From what little I've seen/read, analysts are putting quite a bit of stock into the Horowitz hiring. But then again, he's 1 of 3 AGM's?
And given our potential window, this is a good year to draft college players, right? They'd likely be ready to contribute no later than Skenes' third full season.
Interesting take and probably a correct take. There are many similarities between Jebb & Marcano. I'd probably give Jebb a slight edge due to his speed and more of a true utility type. I also think Marcano's development was stunted by being called up way before he was ready.
Jebb is probably a little more Tony Kemp than Marcano.
As it stands, there's no one like Jebb. We obviously don't have a full years worth of batted ball data in the minors, but his average EV was a shade under 80 MPH (79.8) lol
Maybe a Freddy Sanchez or Josh Harrison type? At least the way I remember them, especially Sanchez, is having very good bat-to-ball skills without a lot of exit velocity (though Harrison would certainly run into one from time to time).
But even in those cases, are they impacting the ball when making contact, or making contact for the sake of contact and hoping to beat out close plays?
I'd have to find the article cause I'm probably going to butcher it, but FG wrote an article on it, and I wanna say they emphasized Arraez and Kwan. They aren't barreling the ball, but when they make contact it's they're still hitting a quality of high probability line drives. Not, again, dribblers you're hoping find a hole.
I think those type of players relies heavily on babip luck. Kwan lost .30 points on his babip and it caused his OPS+ to 126 to a 100. Everything else in his profile was basically the same.
The Marcano comment is . . . well . . . apt, because one of my salient impressions of Jebb was, several times, thinking he’d really gotten hold of one, only to have it become a medium depth fly out.
I know I complained about us drafting him but it wasn't the player I was unhappy with. We have several similar profile players like him (Bae, Cheng, Trey Gonzalez, ect..). I like Jebb just thought we should have aimed at a player with power or a potential front line pitcher at pick 42.
They love crawl spaces though. If his ceiling was higher they wouldn’t have been able to draft him where they did with the high floor. If the ceiling was higher and the floor lower, they wouldn’t have picked him at all. Too risky.
Here is my Dave Parker HOF pitch in comparison to this class of HOF.
Parker and Mauer have an MVP. Helton and Beltre don't.
Parker has the most top 2 finishes.
Parker has as many top 3 finishes as the other 3 combined.
Parker has 5 top 5 finishes. None of the others have more than 2.
Parker has more seasons with MVP votes than any of those 3.
Parker has more all star appearances than any of those 3.
Parker has 17 bold types. None of the other 3 have more than 8.
Parker’s sin is that 90% of those big markers he hit were by age 28. Then his career fell off a cliff through most of the 80’s till he resurrected it briefly with Cincinnati. He’s kind of like Mattingly with a longer coda, which lessens his chances even though he played longer.
I know the perception of Dave Parker is he fell off a cliff in the 80's, but in actuality he just slid some from being the top of the mountain. His down years from 1980 to 1990, he was a 5 time all-star and 3 time silver slugger winner. From age 34 to 39, he received 4 years of mvp votes (including a 2nd).
If you want to describe someone that fell off a cliff, it would new inductee Joe Mauer, Mauer's last season of catching half a season was age 27. He quit catching permantly at age 30. No all star games, silver slugger or any bold types after that.
-I can't see a case for Mauer over Parker. And for the record, I thing Mattingly should be in as well.
Any objective look at his career in the 80’s shows his numbers there are superficial. He hit some homers and knocked in some runs (which MVP voters had an infantile obsession with for the longest time). It’s gonna make anyone look good batting behind the likes of Eric Davis and then the Bash Brothers. He was horrid defensively after 79, basically a DH in the NL before he made his way to Oakland. I don’t think he’d be the worst selection, though. Certainly better than Maz. He was a great player legitimately for 5-6 years. That’s enough for some people; worked for Sandy Koufax. But looking at it closely, there isn’t much else there to make his case to my eyes.
I don’t think it’s fair to compare a catcher to other position players. Catchers are under a much larger physical strain than basically any other player. To me, they get a larger error bar with that.
As for Mattingly, I was raised a Yankee fan before decamping to Pgh and Donnie was my favorite. I can’t, for the life of me, think that he has a good case. Keith Hernandez had a longer and better career and is a better candidate.
Keith Hernandez also made a couple of appearances on Seinfeld. That alone should qualify him.
Joe Mauer was not an everyday catcher. He only caught 100 games 5 years and only one season of over 120 games. I am a numbers guys, but I think too many voters use numbers wrong. Mattingly might have been the most popular player in baseball over a 7 year period, partially based on how good he was. Can't say that about Joe Mauer. And we can't give Joe Mauer a free pass to the HOF because he was a part time catcher for part of his career.
I have no idea how Mauer was voted in. Standards have dropped significantly. Even Helton was dubious. The only legitimate HOFer in this class was Beltre IMO.
I think voters viewed Mauer as a catcher who played some first base, but it was really a first baseman that caught some early in his career. My thought is if you lowered the standards (which they have) for today's generation, it is time to take another look at guys you left out when the standards were much higher.
Busch, Mead, and Miller. 3rd base is where the party is at.
Very happy for Todd Helton and his family, and somebody I had the privilege to watch play HS ball at Knoxville Central HS, and then at UT where he played both Football and Baseball. Best natural hitter I had ever seen, and he and my son became friendly enemies because we had to play them in our HS District. How good was Knox Central HS in those days? Todd's in the HOF, Bubba Trammell was drafted and played 6 years in MLB where he finished with a 260 BA, 82 HR, and Chris Freeman was drafted and played 4 years in the Bluejays org finishing at the AA level.
MLBTR has an article claiming Pirates are interested in Noah Syndergaard as a bounce back candidate.
IMHO, even though Pirates need another SP to start season, this guy isn’t the answer. He’s never come close to regaining the form he exhibited prior to TJ surgery several years ago. No reason to believe he will this year.
I’d much rather see Ortiz, QP, and/or Roansy in the rotation than Thor.
I'm hoping they were there to watch Lorenzen and were just being diplomatic when asked if they were interested in Syndergaard.
Of course there is a non-zero possibility that Syndergaard just took an extra year to get his stuff back after TJ and the logic the Dodgers applied last year was just applied a year too soon.
seems like a $2mil expense for the sole purpose of delaying the service clock of Jones, Wolf and Skenes
Delaying good rookies clock is going to happen no matter what.
I dont love it either. If its a MiL invite or under 2m then fine, anything more or assuming that hes a lock for the rotation would be a mistake
My take is basically if the Dodgers and Guardians of all teams couldn't get anything out of him, it ain't worth the Pirates time, unless it's for something like $2M at most, filled with incentives. Assuming he showed a modicum of his old velo in the recent throwing session.
It’s a no-lose for Thor. If he sucks, folks will figure he just has to get off the Pirates and he’ll get 4 mph back.
Well stated and I agree it would be a mistake. We need to put our own kids out there - you list Ortiz, QP, and Roansy, but we also have guys like Bailey Falter, Jared Jones, and Carmen Mlodzinski who had an excellent year for the Pirates in 2023 out of the BP. Then in Jun or Jul we get BRU, and Burrows back from TJ. Ashcraft, Shortridge, and others can also be possibles as the season progresses.
Am I correct that Contreras and Falter are both out of Options? Ortiz and QP both have 2 Options remaining.
Those kids mostly suck.
As opposed to Thor who completely sucks.
Oh he does. But I like responding to Tennessee Mel with his delusions on the homegrown arms.
Man, I don't know...
I'm guessing Priester was worse.
Roansy's last start, he gave up 7 runs vs the A's?!?!? while getting one out. He's been in Witness Protection ever since.
Ortiz was slightly better.
Syndergaard was at an above average starter just 2 seasons ago. None of these *kids* have ever been that.
Can’t live in the past when it comes to arms. He ain’t close to that guy, let alone pre-TJ Thor.
He's certainly not pre TJ Thor, but I'll take the 2.2 his put up in 2022
Is the first five seasons of Thor’s career a good expectation of Skenes?
No man, his first 5 seasons need to be 1985 Doc Gooden or he's a bust.
I don't put a lot of stock in the national rankings but if they're anywhere near accurate, we're not giving Jebb nearly enough credit (or the FO for drafting him). During the draft there seemed to be general disappointment with his selection, and I can't recall a post where someone is that high on him. However, national outlets are ranking him right there with guys that we as a community are high on as well as ranking him consistently as our #2 position player prospect (the former is more impressive to me than the latter, i.e., that he's being ranked in the same tier as Solo and Bubba).
Maybe it's a bit of shiny-new-toy bias, but most seem focused on his very impressive K rate. It will be interesting to follow him this season to see if he does, in fact, move quickly through the system.
If is able to play CF, assuming that he’s move there then he is interesting, but not as a 2b which is his best infield position.
I think it's combination of having a lot of unknowns for prospects, at least in the terms of there's a lot of questions with their prospects of "What exactly are they?". Paired with a lack of proven overall hitting prospects in the system, and then he does do certain things very well. Well enough that he's a pretty safe bet to make the majors, which carries a lot of weight.
With Jebb, the question becomes what exactly is the ceiling there? As Melkel mentions, the Pirates have quite a few similar profiled players, and so far the best the Pirates can say is they developed them to the point of being bench pieces. In watching Jebb so far, I can't see much more than that as it stands. There were a couple balls in play that I was surprised at the recorded exit velocity, but we're talking a shot up the middle that looked like a soft line drive that looked like a low-70's bloop being mid-80's velo. But then he'd square up a ball, and it was mid-90's, at best. Kind of like Marcano's first Pirates MLB tour, where him "squaring up a ball" was a warning track 95 MPH flyball at best.
All that to say, I think a Top 10 ranking is deserved with his floor as a pretty safe bet to make the majors.
I'm pretty sure Jebb was the top of the list of guys I didn't want them to pick (right before we picked him), because the system is full of his profile. We're going to take Griff O'Ferrall in this years draft just to piss me off.
That’s a made up name.
It should be, but he's a short stop at UVA with a similar profile to Jebb. I'd much rather draft Ethan Anderson from UVA C/1st.
I'm going to be interested in how this upcoming draft goes. From what little I've seen/read, analysts are putting quite a bit of stock into the Horowitz hiring. But then again, he's 1 of 3 AGM's?
I actually like the top 50 or so college players better this year. It's not nearly as deep but the first 4 or 5 picks should have some quality.
And given our potential window, this is a good year to draft college players, right? They'd likely be ready to contribute no later than Skenes' third full season.
Yep, the 9th pick should go to best available but I want a college bat there unless we get a steal value wise with a pitcher or a prep player.
Although, I just went and looked at Micky Romero, who they credit him with helping to push for, and, well...
The one that isn't thriving lol
He's all bat-to-ball, with hope he "grows into power" lol
Interesting take and probably a correct take. There are many similarities between Jebb & Marcano. I'd probably give Jebb a slight edge due to his speed and more of a true utility type. I also think Marcano's development was stunted by being called up way before he was ready.
Jebb is probably a little more Tony Kemp than Marcano.
As it stands, there's no one like Jebb. We obviously don't have a full years worth of batted ball data in the minors, but his average EV was a shade under 80 MPH (79.8) lol
Maybe a Freddy Sanchez or Josh Harrison type? At least the way I remember them, especially Sanchez, is having very good bat-to-ball skills without a lot of exit velocity (though Harrison would certainly run into one from time to time).
Sanchez, if I recall correctly, hit a lot of doubles.
The ones that stick in my mind are the so-called "filet o' fish" hits down the RF line, but I know he had his gap shots too.
Speaking of filet o' fish, I Googled to see if I had the term correct and came across this old Reddit thread (evidently nobody there knew what it meant either): https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/2ec60s/what_is_a_filet_o_fish/?rdt=44730
I don't think shifts were a big thing during Freddy's career. You have to wonder how well those type of players does vs a modern defense.
To your point, Josh had much better raw power than Jebb.
But even in those cases, are they impacting the ball when making contact, or making contact for the sake of contact and hoping to beat out close plays?
I'd have to find the article cause I'm probably going to butcher it, but FG wrote an article on it, and I wanna say they emphasized Arraez and Kwan. They aren't barreling the ball, but when they make contact it's they're still hitting a quality of high probability line drives. Not, again, dribblers you're hoping find a hole.
I think those type of players relies heavily on babip luck. Kwan lost .30 points on his babip and it caused his OPS+ to 126 to a 100. Everything else in his profile was basically the same.
The Marcano comment is . . . well . . . apt, because one of my salient impressions of Jebb was, several times, thinking he’d really gotten hold of one, only to have it become a medium depth fly out.
That's why I never jumped on the Tuc Train lol
I remember saying his two HRs at the Dodgers were quite literally the perfect hit balls to the perfect spot in the perfect park.
Send him to driveline for bat speed training
That's not an issue he has lol his swing as it stands just doesn't lead to much actual "impact".
Oh. Well, then he should go to driveline for impact swing training
I know I complained about us drafting him but it wasn't the player I was unhappy with. We have several similar profile players like him (Bae, Cheng, Trey Gonzalez, ect..). I like Jebb just thought we should have aimed at a player with power or a potential front line pitcher at pick 42.
Does the player type matter that much if they think the player is good though?
Not really, but there were several guys I liked a lot better albeit I thought Jebb had one of the higher floors in the entire draft.
You said the magic phrase there: “high floor.”
Just wish his ceiling wasn't so close to his floor, it's kind of a crawl space.
They love crawl spaces though. If his ceiling was higher they wouldn’t have been able to draft him where they did with the high floor. If the ceiling was higher and the floor lower, they wouldn’t have picked him at all. Too risky.