I talked with my Cardinal friend tonight and asked him about Flaherty. He said Flaherty is soft and not sure he would be a good team guy for the Pirates. Then he also said if he signed a one year contract, you might see some pretty good numbers to try to get a big contract, especially in a pitcher's park.
( I think this goes along with what many of you have said already.)
Orioles fans really blasting Flaherty's lack of effort/intensity/nibbling around the zone and sounds like he's a loner and not a good clubhouse guy. When O's celebrated division title,
he was mostly absent. And then there's the political issues he's jumped into very vocally. Idk.
Orioles fans are just repeating everything that Cards' fans have said about the guy. If Cherington signs this clubhouse cancer, it will end the Ben Cherington experiment, and Nutting can go find his next New England prep-schooler Amherst liberal arts grad to run the team.
Society is split and I'd guess the fanbase is split. Baseball's player culture, at least for the American players, tends to be conservative. But many baseball fans are on the other end of the spectrum. One fan's hero for the stances he takes will be another fan's pariah. Using politics even as a tiebreaker would be a bad road to go down.
I don't care if a player is woke or conservative. Problem is when the woke society is vocal and doing things like kneeling that causes uproar.
Politics doesn't belong in sports...It's just not the platform.
But now that I know who Flaherty is, I don't want him here. Pittsburgh is blue collar, they're not going to root for an aloof idiot that alienates himself and speaks woke.
It's not. It's more moral. But sure is interesting how some (not saying you) will just gloss over that, but a guy kneeling (that hurts absolutely no one) is a deal breaker. Not to mention, I'd bet Cutch would align more with Flaherty than say, Reynolds.
Woke or not... the guy is a complete headcase. St. Louis media is filled with stories of his childish behavior... his postgame interviews are littered with selfish comments and a complete lack of concern for the team. The guy is cancer... woke or not.
Because it was mentioned and wondered why. Not saying it is an issue for you but was surprised it was mentioned and wondered if people thought somehow that would be an issue.
He's almost always been good when he's been healthy. Just had a string of health disasters from 2018-22. (TJ, nerve problem, elbow stress fracture -- holy crap.)
If they get him healthy, he could be a good pickup. Really, if they can get a full season equivalent out of Holderman + Heller, it could be very helpful. It's just the sort of thing you have to do with bullpens.
The Alex piece on DK is what makes me want to beat my head off a desk the most. The whole part about the boost will need to come from "within". Which, cool, yeah. A team generally would like their developmental side to provide fruits of their labor. Unfortunately, their track record is... kind of non-existent. Ro and Ortiz, among others, were supposed to be key cogs last season and faceplanting doesn't even begin to explain their demise in 2023. They're going to need some kind of seismic shift if they're going to once again dabble in the bargain bin, with hopes of the farm system providing the bulk of performance.
To make it even more absurd, during BC’s first four years, when they had no internal options, they didn’t look to add talent from outside, either. They settled for cheap, no-upside guys who should have been AAA depth. No matter what the circumstances, it’s never time to spend money.
Wilbur, we have discussed this before but knowing the wrath(more from others) I will likely receive I will still say it again. I truly think they were totally tanking and that was BCs internal stated plan (and quite frankly actions support this theory). Adding better talent in BCs first 3 years would be counter to that plan. Every player you sign who you guess will be 3 WAR will give you 2 more wins than the player you signed for 1 WAR(usually much less). If you are tanking you don't care about the product on the field and are banking on future rewards.
Several Points.
1) Those years are over - it is NOT an excuse now to not spend and any anger over a low budget now is totally valid.
2) Where did that 'saved' money go? Will we see it in future budgets / spending? (not really believing this one - but it is what SHOULD happen).
3) If by some miracle the tank to succeed works people WILL celebrate, PNC will be packed, and BC will be lauded. I am not putting odds on this... just stating it.
4) I am not saying tanking should ever be the plan... I am just saying in my thoroughly uniformed/ no insider info - that is what I think they did. Maybe it helps me sleep better.
I find myself less frustrated with the amount of money they spend (which should be more), and more frustrated with how they spend it. I’ll guarantee you this offseason they’ll spend $10-$15 MM signing a SP, OF and middle infielder who will produce around 1.5 WAR, which is exactly what Falter, Joe and Triolo/Bae/Gonzales/Peguero would give you. The whole point of small markets success is developing low cost depth and then leveraging that payroll savings into signing what you don’t have. But you can’t spend $15-$20 MM on a guy because we can’t have one player taking up too large of a percentage of the payroll or something.
The alternative is they don’t spend anything at all. So would you prefer they not make any signings?
It’s also a bit bold to assume one of those four MI will produce like an average regular, considering only Triolo did anything positive last year. And even that was BABIP inflated.
In a lot of cases, yes. Occasionally, they strike gold with a budget guy, but they’ve literally lit tens of millions of dollars on fire since Nutting has became the majority owner signing players that offer <1 WAR production. Take the latter end of the NH era. They spent nearly $20 MM on Ryan Vogelsong, Daniel Hudson, Melky Cabrera, Jordan Lyles and Lonnie Chisenhall for a total of .8 fWAR. You could’ve taken the next 5 guys up in the system and gotten the same .8 fWAR for a fraction of the cost. But they can’t take that same $20 MM and sign an actual baseball player that could produce a WAR output of 3x’s that? I’m guessing they do this to keep the MLBPA off their backs or something.
Ahhh so are you advocating for one big fish to plug one hole rather than spread it around? So (just using an example) sign a Sonny Gray and that’s kind of 80% of your offseason spending?
I would advocate the same. The unfortunate part is that their circumstances this off-season are completely fucked, which they are only to blame. But, if you’re buying WAR, there are definitely economies to purchasing more. If you spread it out, the probabilities of hitting on all your bets is extremely low, plus you are essentially forced to repeat the process year-after-year. There is nothing wrong with committing to a player and trading him later if circumstances change. It’s just asset management, and the good low rev teams do this well.
I don’t it should necessarily think it’s an either/or scenario per se. I don’t see why they can’t run out a $100 MM payroll. They did so as recently as 2016, and they should reward fans for the attendance increase coming off a 100 loss season. Such an increase would allow 1 big signing, plus spreading some money around to fill the rotation.
To answer your question though, yes, I’d prefer an actual good player than seeing them waste money on fringe guys as they usually do. Maybe not to the Sonny Gray level of $25 MM, but definitely someone in the $15-$20 MM range. Fill the rest of the holes wjth low budget guys and prospect depth who will perform similarly to their budget free agent signings.
That's what I have been saying... and Bucsfan makes the point perfectly. They have a long history of tossing away 10s of millions on long-shots. We all cling to the Quintanas and so forth as success stories and ignore the endless string of Lonnie Chishenhalls. They are not "saving money" filling out their roster with replacement-level players every year, hoping that 1 in 5 has a decent season.
He was still able to strike out a batter per inning, and while his ERA wasn't great his FIP and xFIP were fine. Given his age, past success, and some decent peripherals, he's one of my favorite options on the SP market (at least once we eliminate the ones that aren't realistic).
I do wonder what our current sales pitch is to pitchers other than a rotation spot. Ben/Derek could claim success in helping Quintana and Anderson, but between the injuries and players taking steps backward over the last year, that pitch wouldn't seem to go very far. And since nearly every team is looking for at least a #5, offering a spot in the rotation won't make us stand out. Money talks, of course, but yeah.
I remember hearing some stat (vague recall here lol) that his ERA was like a run and a half or more better on starts where his velo averaged over 94 vs under this past season. Not sure the cause of big swings like that within a season but thought it was interesting
If I knew we could get Kurtz or JJ at 3, I'd prefer 3, if not one of those two probably 7 currently. Another player may rise up to a surefire top 3 but I have those two a level higher. The next tier is extremely deep, there isn't a large gap between 3 and 7. Really 3 and 20 something.
If the draft was also today, I totally get it. On the other hand, I was thinking that our chances of getting a top pick next year will probably decrease with a better win-loss record (I'm hoping anyway.) Not to the same extent of Skenes, but I would like to think another good player will rise. In order I think I would prefer 1,2,3,7
Yeah 1,2,3 or 7 would work, until we have more than one reliable starting pitcher. I think we have a better chance at a bottom 3 finish than a playoff spot next year. It could change quick but I don't have a lot of faith it will.
First of all, I figured out we can't finish with a 7 since they only pick 6. We can either finish in the top 6 or between 8 and 13 inclusive. My percentages are all estimates, but here is what I came up with in order of most likely where we will finish.
"The real fun begins next season, as teams that received revenue-sharing can't win a top pick three years in a row. That means the A's, Pirates and Tigers will face lottery disqualification next year if they end up in the top six this year."
Imagine what will/would happen if Nutting lost $60 million in tv revenue in a heartbeat like San Diego and other teams tied into Diamond Sports Group which is a subsidiary of Sinclair Broadcasting which is concerning in itself.
Hasn't Ethan written that the Pirates did actually get caught up in this? Less to lose than the Pads, but I figured this is why they're not gonna spend anything to speak of this year.
Hard to imagine the Pirates coming away from Nashville any better than when they arrived. It's just not BC's persona - he will gather info and process, but he knows that the prices are high during the Winter Meetings. Players and Agents start to get especially concerned after the meetings looking at the dead space of the holidays, and prep for early reports to ST beginning in mid-Jan.
Also difficult to see the Pirates make any selection in the Rule 5 simply because they are too far down the list - 7th of teams who do not have a full 40. The Pirates would probably want a SP/RP type, and I would think they could have interest in guys like Van Eyk, Wilcox, and Sauer. Pitchers go first in the R5 and those 3 may not get past the first 5 teams. And, not sure any of them would be able to help in 2024.
A winter meeting tidbit that the Pirates should monitor closely is the possible trade (and return) of Emmanual Clase. I am not proposing a Bednar trade but I am a believer that closers are over valued. I can honestly say if Bednar was not from Pittsburgh and had not become one of the key faces of the current franchise, I might be proposing cashing in while he has very high value to fill other positions I feel can be harder to fill. This is basically an addendum to the question that has been asked in these comment sections on what prospects are off limits. My answer is the same for the major league roster... nobody is off limits - it depends on the return.
I've become more and more a proponent of shipping off excelling relievers. Sure, it's difficult to find a guy that has "it" for a closer role, but relievers are also the most fickle and variant piece of a roster. Orioles flipped a dominant closer (who then became terrible) for two pitchers that then became dominant, and then some. Not to mention that's probably the one area where it's looking like the Pirates should be able to cycle through come next season, rather than having to lean on the Underwood and De Jong's of the world anymore.
Hell, not to the same degree as Bednar being a "closer", but the Pirates might even be able to get a solid return for a reliever like Holderman.
That's the big wrinkle. If they could manage to build a quality team in part from doing so, all will be forgotten. Until they lose in the NLCS against Bednar closing out the clinching game.
Clase won the AL Reliever of the Year award in 2022 and finished 2nd to Bautista this year. He is averaging 43 Saves a year the last 2 years and the best parts about him are the performance, and the long term contract he signed a few years ago - in 2024 he will be paid $2.5 mil, in 2025 he will be paid $4.5 mil, in 2026 he will be paid $6 mil and then the club has two option years for $10 mil apiece in 2027 and 2028. They put some performance clauses in it that if he hits those between 2021 and 2026 the option years go up to $13 mil/year - he has already pretty much reached those goals in the first 3 years. But, the Club can opt out of both option years for $2 mil each year.
And, then you have a guy like Diaz of the Mets who was making around $18 mil in 2023! Clase is a tremendous bargain, and so is David Bednar.
First of all, closers scare me because very few have good years 2 or 3 years in a row. I know Clase a little better than many closers because he was my fantasy league closer the last 2 years. He was so awesome in 2022 and I got him again in 2023. Last year he was the lead leaguer in blown saves with 12. His drop-off in whip from .73 to 1.16 is a red flag to me that something is not right. Even though it is a very tempting contract, I am not trading away the market price for his arm. I think the Guardians asking price will be high.
The maximally productive thing to do would be trade Bednar, but in reality, the media would absolutely lambast them, the narrative would likely get spun (money vs. the fact that he has more trade surplus value than anyone on your roster), and the fans would revolt even more than they have in the past. Idk, if he’s so committed to playing in his hometown, maybe he takes a considerable discount to stay.
Good points. He is local, has become the face of the franchise, but even more than that, he has saved BC's butt! The second trade of the BC period was the trade of Joe Musgrove for 5 Prospects, and Bednar may have been the least of the 5 at the time of the trade. Three years have passed and Musgrove has posted 8.9 fWAR.; David Bednar has become the Pirates Closer and has posted 4.9 fWAR over the same period, which makes that trade respectable. Another of the group was Endy Rodriguez who just made it to MLB and pitched in 0.7 fWAR this year.
Bednar also represents the bedrock of what has become one of the better Bullpens in MLB. Nice to have a solid BP when you are now just beginning to add the SP's who will live or die not only on their own merits, but also the merits of the people entrusted to hold leads and close the games for them.
This is another part of Pirate bad luck. Our most tradable piece that could bring a no crap good return just happens to be from Pittsburgh and is revered.
On BTV - Bednar has the about same value as Bubba Chandler, Termarr, Henry Davis... etc. I'd rather have another top 100 prospect than a closer who could blow out his arm
And this is the dilemma. If I would 'cash' in on his surplus value I don't want it to be because the 'contention' window is being pushed down the road. The trade is simply because IMO even a really good closer does not bring as much value as perceived. It may mean the trade brings prospects but more because other prospects were then used to trade to add to the MLB roster.
I think he’s more likely to get moved next offseason. Which, to me, means one of Ortiz/Ro should move to a late inning role as an understudy. So if Ro moves into a role like that and has success, you have him and Holderman to take over those roles.
The kicker is this: what would you want? Young OF? Young SP?
I don't think you would get fair value out of Bednar, he was worth as many wins as Reynolds last season.
I'm in the business of keeping my good players, unless I get blown away for a trade offer. I wouldn't trust Ro as a late inning leverage arm. I like Holderman but think he's more suited for the 6th inning on a playoff team. I think they need to see what Moreta can do in the 7th. I still would like to see another high leverage arm for the 8th inning. I'm not completely sold on Mlod being someone we can trust. Ortiz looks like he might be a Hughes type of arm that can be a fireman, but not much more as he doesn't generate the K's...I'm more inclined to see what he can do as a starter.
Honestly I think you’re more likely to get bowled over for a star reliever at the deadline. At that point, contenders may have bullpen issues, injuries to deal with, etc.
Having said all that, yeah, I’m more of the attitude I’d keep my good players too. Especially as the organization is (in theory) on the upswing. Maybe that changes as Bednar continues to deal and Moreta/Holderman and others take a big step forward, so they can afford to deal Bednar for other needs. But we’re not at that point yet.
I agree next year is more likely if no extension. Using the TB model, 2 years remaining is when things get real (also arbitration $ go up - which unfortunately can be a factor). I'm not as sold on Ro/Ortiz.. and think the solution could be as easy as Holderman. It kind of goes to the closer being over valued, it could be whoever steps up the year before the trade.
I think you just take the best haul you can get. Kind of too my previous post. Maybe what you get in the trade may be used in a subsequent trade or make the team more willing to trade others. When you are executing the trade don't force fit the return into the current need.
Marco Gonzalez is in the house. $12.25M is a big number for Pirates.
As long as he's better than RICH Hill.
One more starter to get. Write the check Ben.
I talked with my Cardinal friend tonight and asked him about Flaherty. He said Flaherty is soft and not sure he would be a good team guy for the Pirates. Then he also said if he signed a one year contract, you might see some pretty good numbers to try to get a big contract, especially in a pitcher's park.
( I think this goes along with what many of you have said already.)
We, too, have talked about every starting pitcher on the market.
I’m thinking of an Elvis song.
A little less conversation
And a little more action!!!!
"In the Ghetto"?
Good try, but no.
Orioles fans really blasting Flaherty's lack of effort/intensity/nibbling around the zone and sounds like he's a loner and not a good clubhouse guy. When O's celebrated division title,
he was mostly absent. And then there's the political issues he's jumped into very vocally. Idk.
Orioles fans are just repeating everything that Cards' fans have said about the guy. If Cherington signs this clubhouse cancer, it will end the Ben Cherington experiment, and Nutting can go find his next New England prep-schooler Amherst liberal arts grad to run the team.
He's an effing POS. Sign someone else...anyone else.
It says something about this front office that they are even thinking of signing this guy.
Cherington's a clown, what do you expect? This is year 5 of his *build*
He's a poor-man's Huntington.
He does work for Nutting. Who acts like a poor man.
Actually... this is Huntington's build... we have yet to anything from Cherington outside of a few bullpen acquisitions and Jack Suwinski.
Political preferences aren’t an automatic disqualifier in my opinion, but it can be a tiebreaker.
Clubhouse chemistry is a big deal. Real big.
But not as big as getting players who are good at baseball.
Society is split and I'd guess the fanbase is split. Baseball's player culture, at least for the American players, tends to be conservative. But many baseball fans are on the other end of the spectrum. One fan's hero for the stances he takes will be another fan's pariah. Using politics even as a tiebreaker would be a bad road to go down.
I’m against both lunatic fringes personally.
I'm thinking of a song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTFVMMCwsss
Great tune!
I don't care if a player is woke or conservative. Problem is when the woke society is vocal and doing things like kneeling that causes uproar.
Politics doesn't belong in sports...It's just not the platform.
But now that I know who Flaherty is, I don't want him here. Pittsburgh is blue collar, they're not going to root for an aloof idiot that alienates himself and speaks woke.
"Politics don't belong in sports. Unless it's my politics."
I mean, idk, maybe they should try to sign Bauer and/or Clevinger. They'd get along with Bae.
I didn't realize beating women was political.
It's flat wrong and inexcusable, but it's not politics.
It's not. It's more moral. But sure is interesting how some (not saying you) will just gloss over that, but a guy kneeling (that hurts absolutely no one) is a deal breaker. Not to mention, I'd bet Cutch would align more with Flaherty than say, Reynolds.
What were the political issues?
Never mind, just read about it. I don't think he be a good fit here.
Pro BLM. Anti police. Flaherty is bi-racial.
He's a kneeler. I knew he was bi-racial...Didn't realize he was woke.
Woke or not... the guy is a complete headcase. St. Louis media is filled with stories of his childish behavior... his postgame interviews are littered with selfish comments and a complete lack of concern for the team. The guy is cancer... woke or not.
I understand the different views on kneeling and BLM. But please tell me bi-racial is not an issue. I mean... doesn't that make them a human?
Why would that be an issue? I don't care about race or religion. Being a woke kneeler is the issue.
how is that an issue on a baseball field?
Because it was mentioned and wondered why. Not saying it is an issue for you but was surprised it was mentioned and wondered if people thought somehow that would be an issue.
Pirates signed reliever Ben Heller to a MiL deal.
Good no risk signing.
He's almost always been good when he's been healthy. Just had a string of health disasters from 2018-22. (TJ, nerve problem, elbow stress fracture -- holy crap.)
If they get him healthy, he could be a good pickup. Really, if they can get a full season equivalent out of Holderman + Heller, it could be very helpful. It's just the sort of thing you have to do with bullpens.
The Alex piece on DK is what makes me want to beat my head off a desk the most. The whole part about the boost will need to come from "within". Which, cool, yeah. A team generally would like their developmental side to provide fruits of their labor. Unfortunately, their track record is... kind of non-existent. Ro and Ortiz, among others, were supposed to be key cogs last season and faceplanting doesn't even begin to explain their demise in 2023. They're going to need some kind of seismic shift if they're going to once again dabble in the bargain bin, with hopes of the farm system providing the bulk of performance.
To make it even more absurd, during BC’s first four years, when they had no internal options, they didn’t look to add talent from outside, either. They settled for cheap, no-upside guys who should have been AAA depth. No matter what the circumstances, it’s never time to spend money.
Wilbur, we have discussed this before but knowing the wrath(more from others) I will likely receive I will still say it again. I truly think they were totally tanking and that was BCs internal stated plan (and quite frankly actions support this theory). Adding better talent in BCs first 3 years would be counter to that plan. Every player you sign who you guess will be 3 WAR will give you 2 more wins than the player you signed for 1 WAR(usually much less). If you are tanking you don't care about the product on the field and are banking on future rewards.
Several Points.
1) Those years are over - it is NOT an excuse now to not spend and any anger over a low budget now is totally valid.
2) Where did that 'saved' money go? Will we see it in future budgets / spending? (not really believing this one - but it is what SHOULD happen).
3) If by some miracle the tank to succeed works people WILL celebrate, PNC will be packed, and BC will be lauded. I am not putting odds on this... just stating it.
4) I am not saying tanking should ever be the plan... I am just saying in my thoroughly uniformed/ no insider info - that is what I think they did. Maybe it helps me sleep better.
I certainly don't disagree.
I am also not grading how they have done.. .this was a pure - they tanked post.. now clock is ticking really fast on succeeding.
I find myself less frustrated with the amount of money they spend (which should be more), and more frustrated with how they spend it. I’ll guarantee you this offseason they’ll spend $10-$15 MM signing a SP, OF and middle infielder who will produce around 1.5 WAR, which is exactly what Falter, Joe and Triolo/Bae/Gonzales/Peguero would give you. The whole point of small markets success is developing low cost depth and then leveraging that payroll savings into signing what you don’t have. But you can’t spend $15-$20 MM on a guy because we can’t have one player taking up too large of a percentage of the payroll or something.
The alternative is they don’t spend anything at all. So would you prefer they not make any signings?
It’s also a bit bold to assume one of those four MI will produce like an average regular, considering only Triolo did anything positive last year. And even that was BABIP inflated.
In a lot of cases, yes. Occasionally, they strike gold with a budget guy, but they’ve literally lit tens of millions of dollars on fire since Nutting has became the majority owner signing players that offer <1 WAR production. Take the latter end of the NH era. They spent nearly $20 MM on Ryan Vogelsong, Daniel Hudson, Melky Cabrera, Jordan Lyles and Lonnie Chisenhall for a total of .8 fWAR. You could’ve taken the next 5 guys up in the system and gotten the same .8 fWAR for a fraction of the cost. But they can’t take that same $20 MM and sign an actual baseball player that could produce a WAR output of 3x’s that? I’m guessing they do this to keep the MLBPA off their backs or something.
Ahhh so are you advocating for one big fish to plug one hole rather than spread it around? So (just using an example) sign a Sonny Gray and that’s kind of 80% of your offseason spending?
I would advocate the same. The unfortunate part is that their circumstances this off-season are completely fucked, which they are only to blame. But, if you’re buying WAR, there are definitely economies to purchasing more. If you spread it out, the probabilities of hitting on all your bets is extremely low, plus you are essentially forced to repeat the process year-after-year. There is nothing wrong with committing to a player and trading him later if circumstances change. It’s just asset management, and the good low rev teams do this well.
I don’t it should necessarily think it’s an either/or scenario per se. I don’t see why they can’t run out a $100 MM payroll. They did so as recently as 2016, and they should reward fans for the attendance increase coming off a 100 loss season. Such an increase would allow 1 big signing, plus spreading some money around to fill the rotation.
To answer your question though, yes, I’d prefer an actual good player than seeing them waste money on fringe guys as they usually do. Maybe not to the Sonny Gray level of $25 MM, but definitely someone in the $15-$20 MM range. Fill the rest of the holes wjth low budget guys and prospect depth who will perform similarly to their budget free agent signings.
That's what I have been saying... and Bucsfan makes the point perfectly. They have a long history of tossing away 10s of millions on long-shots. We all cling to the Quintanas and so forth as success stories and ignore the endless string of Lonnie Chishenhalls. They are not "saving money" filling out their roster with replacement-level players every year, hoping that 1 in 5 has a decent season.
This^^^^. Spend that 20 million on a good player. Just Do It. You know... you might even put a few butts in seats if you had an actual star player.
It's only a matter of time till we get the regurgitated phrasing of spending monies will itself come from internally by way of arbitration and such.
Didnt flaherty lose velo last year? Would fit the teams trend sadly
He was still able to strike out a batter per inning, and while his ERA wasn't great his FIP and xFIP were fine. Given his age, past success, and some decent peripherals, he's one of my favorite options on the SP market (at least once we eliminate the ones that aren't realistic).
Come to Pgh to lose more velocity! We’ll have you throwing underhand in 2025!
Now THAT'S funny!!!! lmfao!
I do wonder what our current sales pitch is to pitchers other than a rotation spot. Ben/Derek could claim success in helping Quintana and Anderson, but between the injuries and players taking steps backward over the last year, that pitch wouldn't seem to go very far. And since nearly every team is looking for at least a #5, offering a spot in the rotation won't make us stand out. Money talks, of course, but yeah.
I think the sales pitch should be...
"You see what we did with Mitch Keller..."
He lost .2 mph on his heater. He lost 1.3 from his peak in 2019.
I remember hearing some stat (vague recall here lol) that his ERA was like a run and a half or more better on starts where his velo averaged over 94 vs under this past season. Not sure the cause of big swings like that within a season but thought it was interesting
I saw this and chuckled lol
Looks like they’re not one of the mystery teams for Fedde. MLBTR has the two teams as the Mets and White Sox.
Boooooooo
2 years, 10M too.
I think that's 10 per
Maybe it’s 10 per? I thought it was 10 total. Either way, that’s incredibly affordable.
No, no, no. It's estimated $10M total. Over two years lol
Then why the f aren't they in on a starter for 5M per year?
Maybe he's just another Josh Lindblom
Idk if he'd be another Lindblom, but yeah. $5M should at least be worth the gamble of hoping he's not.
Exactly what Cherington is; a lot of talk. It's difficult to believe much of anything the guy says.
Lottery today!
Do you feel lucky, punk?
If we're lucky, we get pick 1,2 or 7.
Either JJ or Kurtz at 1 or 2. If not there hope we stay out of the top 6.
What would you prefer a 3 or 7?
If I knew we could get Kurtz or JJ at 3, I'd prefer 3, if not one of those two probably 7 currently. Another player may rise up to a surefire top 3 but I have those two a level higher. The next tier is extremely deep, there isn't a large gap between 3 and 7. Really 3 and 20 something.
If the draft was also today, I totally get it. On the other hand, I was thinking that our chances of getting a top pick next year will probably decrease with a better win-loss record (I'm hoping anyway.) Not to the same extent of Skenes, but I would like to think another good player will rise. In order I think I would prefer 1,2,3,7
Yeah 1,2,3 or 7 would work, until we have more than one reliable starting pitcher. I think we have a better chance at a bottom 3 finish than a playoff spot next year. It could change quick but I don't have a lot of faith it will.
First of all, I figured out we can't finish with a 7 since they only pick 6. We can either finish in the top 6 or between 8 and 13 inclusive. My percentages are all estimates, but here is what I came up with in order of most likely where we will finish.
pick 8 (40%)
pick 9 (22%)
pick 6 (10%)
pick 5 (7%)
pick 10 (5%)
pick 4 (5%)
pick 3 (4%)
pick 2 (3.5%)
pick 1 (3%)
pick 11,12 or 13 (<1%)
We are using the same logic, but differ a little on our percentages. You really have me to doing some thinking and number crunching.
Remind me, the reason to stay out of top 6 has something to do with being prohibited from the lottery then for 2025?
Yep, the other Holiday brother should be the top pick next year as well.
From Jack Baer a Yahoo staff writer;
"The real fun begins next season, as teams that received revenue-sharing can't win a top pick three years in a row. That means the A's, Pirates and Tigers will face lottery disqualification next year if they end up in the top six this year."
The ludicrous part is thinking the threat of losing a top pick will motivate Bob to invest in the team.
Imagine what will/would happen if Nutting lost $60 million in tv revenue in a heartbeat like San Diego and other teams tied into Diamond Sports Group which is a subsidiary of Sinclair Broadcasting which is concerning in itself.
Hasn't Ethan written that the Pirates did actually get caught up in this? Less to lose than the Pads, but I figured this is why they're not gonna spend anything to speak of this year.
The other ludicrous part is that we're in year 5 of the Cherington/Shelton regime and we're still counting on being in the lottery next year.
I guess if nothing else, they've set a standard of low expectations which is great for their job security.
They made it too complicated.
Talk is cheap. Sign a live body.
Hard to imagine the Pirates coming away from Nashville any better than when they arrived. It's just not BC's persona - he will gather info and process, but he knows that the prices are high during the Winter Meetings. Players and Agents start to get especially concerned after the meetings looking at the dead space of the holidays, and prep for early reports to ST beginning in mid-Jan.
Also difficult to see the Pirates make any selection in the Rule 5 simply because they are too far down the list - 7th of teams who do not have a full 40. The Pirates would probably want a SP/RP type, and I would think they could have interest in guys like Van Eyk, Wilcox, and Sauer. Pitchers go first in the R5 and those 3 may not get past the first 5 teams. And, not sure any of them would be able to help in 2024.
A winter meeting tidbit that the Pirates should monitor closely is the possible trade (and return) of Emmanual Clase. I am not proposing a Bednar trade but I am a believer that closers are over valued. I can honestly say if Bednar was not from Pittsburgh and had not become one of the key faces of the current franchise, I might be proposing cashing in while he has very high value to fill other positions I feel can be harder to fill. This is basically an addendum to the question that has been asked in these comment sections on what prospects are off limits. My answer is the same for the major league roster... nobody is off limits - it depends on the return.
I've become more and more a proponent of shipping off excelling relievers. Sure, it's difficult to find a guy that has "it" for a closer role, but relievers are also the most fickle and variant piece of a roster. Orioles flipped a dominant closer (who then became terrible) for two pitchers that then became dominant, and then some. Not to mention that's probably the one area where it's looking like the Pirates should be able to cycle through come next season, rather than having to lean on the Underwood and De Jong's of the world anymore.
Hell, not to the same degree as Bednar being a "closer", but the Pirates might even be able to get a solid return for a reliever like Holderman.
I have agreed with what you are saying for years, especially around the trade deadline...... but man Bednar is what Pittsburgh is all about.
That's the big wrinkle. If they could manage to build a quality team in part from doing so, all will be forgotten. Until they lose in the NLCS against Bednar closing out the clinching game.
Clase won the AL Reliever of the Year award in 2022 and finished 2nd to Bautista this year. He is averaging 43 Saves a year the last 2 years and the best parts about him are the performance, and the long term contract he signed a few years ago - in 2024 he will be paid $2.5 mil, in 2025 he will be paid $4.5 mil, in 2026 he will be paid $6 mil and then the club has two option years for $10 mil apiece in 2027 and 2028. They put some performance clauses in it that if he hits those between 2021 and 2026 the option years go up to $13 mil/year - he has already pretty much reached those goals in the first 3 years. But, the Club can opt out of both option years for $2 mil each year.
And, then you have a guy like Diaz of the Mets who was making around $18 mil in 2023! Clase is a tremendous bargain, and so is David Bednar.
First of all, closers scare me because very few have good years 2 or 3 years in a row. I know Clase a little better than many closers because he was my fantasy league closer the last 2 years. He was so awesome in 2022 and I got him again in 2023. Last year he was the lead leaguer in blown saves with 12. His drop-off in whip from .73 to 1.16 is a red flag to me that something is not right. Even though it is a very tempting contract, I am not trading away the market price for his arm. I think the Guardians asking price will be high.
We could trade one bednar for a haul then go get second bednar from the giants
The maximally productive thing to do would be trade Bednar, but in reality, the media would absolutely lambast them, the narrative would likely get spun (money vs. the fact that he has more trade surplus value than anyone on your roster), and the fans would revolt even more than they have in the past. Idk, if he’s so committed to playing in his hometown, maybe he takes a considerable discount to stay.
Colin Holderman is plenty valuable
Good points. He is local, has become the face of the franchise, but even more than that, he has saved BC's butt! The second trade of the BC period was the trade of Joe Musgrove for 5 Prospects, and Bednar may have been the least of the 5 at the time of the trade. Three years have passed and Musgrove has posted 8.9 fWAR.; David Bednar has become the Pirates Closer and has posted 4.9 fWAR over the same period, which makes that trade respectable. Another of the group was Endy Rodriguez who just made it to MLB and pitched in 0.7 fWAR this year.
Bednar also represents the bedrock of what has become one of the better Bullpens in MLB. Nice to have a solid BP when you are now just beginning to add the SP's who will live or die not only on their own merits, but also the merits of the people entrusted to hold leads and close the games for them.
Technically, 2023 was Musgrove’s first FA year and should not be included in the comparison. It’s all about years of control, remember?! 😂
This is another part of Pirate bad luck. Our most tradable piece that could bring a no crap good return just happens to be from Pittsburgh and is revered.
On BTV - Bednar has the about same value as Bubba Chandler, Termarr, Henry Davis... etc. I'd rather have another top 100 prospect than a closer who could blow out his arm
I’m not sure I’d focus on a prospect laden return for him. Not that I’m opposed to trading him at all.
And this is the dilemma. If I would 'cash' in on his surplus value I don't want it to be because the 'contention' window is being pushed down the road. The trade is simply because IMO even a really good closer does not bring as much value as perceived. It may mean the trade brings prospects but more because other prospects were then used to trade to add to the MLB roster.
I think he’s more likely to get moved next offseason. Which, to me, means one of Ortiz/Ro should move to a late inning role as an understudy. So if Ro moves into a role like that and has success, you have him and Holderman to take over those roles.
The kicker is this: what would you want? Young OF? Young SP?
I don't think you would get fair value out of Bednar, he was worth as many wins as Reynolds last season.
I'm in the business of keeping my good players, unless I get blown away for a trade offer. I wouldn't trust Ro as a late inning leverage arm. I like Holderman but think he's more suited for the 6th inning on a playoff team. I think they need to see what Moreta can do in the 7th. I still would like to see another high leverage arm for the 8th inning. I'm not completely sold on Mlod being someone we can trust. Ortiz looks like he might be a Hughes type of arm that can be a fireman, but not much more as he doesn't generate the K's...I'm more inclined to see what he can do as a starter.
Honestly I think you’re more likely to get bowled over for a star reliever at the deadline. At that point, contenders may have bullpen issues, injuries to deal with, etc.
Having said all that, yeah, I’m more of the attitude I’d keep my good players too. Especially as the organization is (in theory) on the upswing. Maybe that changes as Bednar continues to deal and Moreta/Holderman and others take a big step forward, so they can afford to deal Bednar for other needs. But we’re not at that point yet.
I agree next year is more likely if no extension. Using the TB model, 2 years remaining is when things get real (also arbitration $ go up - which unfortunately can be a factor). I'm not as sold on Ro/Ortiz.. and think the solution could be as easy as Holderman. It kind of goes to the closer being over valued, it could be whoever steps up the year before the trade.
I think you just take the best haul you can get. Kind of too my previous post. Maybe what you get in the trade may be used in a subsequent trade or make the team more willing to trade others. When you are executing the trade don't force fit the return into the current need.
Agree. But they also put themselves in a rough spot because now that they are trying to win you create a decent sized hole trading him.