I posted that Jones altered his fastball this offseason on the recommendation of Thomas Harrington to a more split grip similar to Harrington's own because Jones said that's what happened in an interview with Pitching Ninja. That's not exactly "developing" Jones but Jones does credit the change in the pitch for his improved command and his walk rate is lower in MLB than it's ever been in the minors. Watch the interview if you like! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q87BOUY3Xvo
Sure, I was making fun of a shitty organization. It's easy to do!
That is actually a reason I was liking the minor league contract signings we did this year, like Brent Honeywell. He had at one point a plus plus changeup. If he can rub off of something working, GREAT! I'd love it if we can get Bubba to be in a similar spot as Jones in a year.
In NO way am I comparing Jones to these guys but Drysdale, Gibson. Jenkins and many other stud pitchers gave up a lot of long balls in their careers. IMHO Jones is going to be just fine.
I think for Jones to stay successful, the whip and batting average against need to stay low. In order for this to happen, his home runs given up will probably be high. In the last 5 years, some of the best pitchers have had Cy Young (or near) seasons with low whips and high home run totals. Justin Verlander, Gerit Cole, Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola come to mind.
To vastly oversimplicate the situation, the difference between minor league Jones with ERAs over 4 and what we've seen in Pittsburgh to date largely comes down to solo homers instead of two and three run dingers. Homers are gonna happen with pitchers of his type, limiting baserunners will be what makes the whole thing work.
When you're throwing your 4-seamer up in the zone, you will get burned with HRs. The key as you alluded to is limiting walks and baserunners. Solo bomb we can live with, 3-run bomb we can't live with.
Came here to say this. Throw 97 up in the zone, occasionally you get one hit 400 ft. (Tell that to Bednar who the FIP gods laugh at but the xFIP gods say hes just as good as years past)
From FG, "It’s weird to see Hunter Stratton’s SwStk% so high, but his strikeout rate merely good. So a lot of his success so far has been because of his tiny 1.7% walk rate, which won’t last. There’s no real change in his pitch mix this year to explain the spike in SwStk%, but his minor league performances are littered with lots of high SwStk% marks, so this is nothing really new."
FG rated him as 40/40 command. The fact of the matter is that he is locating his slider very well. His fastball and cutter still end up middle-middle a little too much, but they are coming in mostly for strikes. Like anyone else, FG has a problem admitting error. His command is higher than a 40 grade at this point: probably 50.
But that's the point. He once walked 5 per 9. He does not now. Time to revise the expectations and the potential and actual grades. He has thrown 378 pitches in the majors. 261 of those pitches have been strikes. He has much better command than advertised or that was apparent from a quick examination of his minor league record.
Lol... you are grumpy today. I'm not butthurt about it. I'm just commenting on the article by Fangraphs and think that they are reaching for some explanation of why Stratton is outperforming their expectations. Rather than revising their expectations, they are suggesting that some kind of major BB regression is due owing to sample size or something, but the sample is getting larger and there is no regression. Sometimes players change. Jones is a perfect example of how a change of grip on his fastball changed his potential command.
lol, way to tell us you never actually once saw Hunter Stratton pitch in the minors without telling us you never actually once saw Hunter Stratton pitch in the minors.
A tough one to lose, but the game was well pitched by the Pirates - Jones 5 IP, Ortiz 2 IP, and Nicolas, just up from AAA, 1 IP. Some key hits to keep it close, and again, a very well played game defensively. Lots of positives to build on. Jones pitches that game at night at Oracle and those two HR's would not have even gotten to the Warning Track, but that's all a part of it, including the 14 mph "gentle" breeze straight out -it played the same for both teams, so no excuse.
Tip of the cap to the Giants for finding and developing Keaton Winn who has now started 5 games in 2024, averaging almost 6 IP/game, and only 11 runs scored against in those 5 games. A 20th round pick in 2017 from Iowa Western CC in Council Bluffs, Iowa!
That third inning could have got really ugly but I feel like Jones handled it pretty well getting out of it with only three runs allowed and then following it up with two shutdown innings. He's pitching for probably the worst offensive team in baseball so it's usually bad if a Pirate pitcher gives up even one run.
I agree with your comment on the Middle of the order. One thing to keep in mind is that the Pirates are always in a state of flux - Reynolds, Hayes, and Joe have been VG, but we have newbies MAT, Olivares, Tellez, Bart, and soon Grandal joining the lineup for 2024, and Oneil Cruz is returning after losing all of 2023 except for 9 Games. Our pitching has 4 new adds to the Rotation and a few new RP's also. Doing the numbers we have roughly 40% or more of the Roster thinking about where they came from, and where they might be in 3 months.
I think 'Cutch is not too far from announcing his retirement - getting No. 300 was necessary for his HOF Resume'. Joe has proven we only need one 1B, and Malcom Nunez could also help. Endy will return from injury, and Davis remains. Our homegrown Rotation will have Keller, Jones, Skenes, and possibly Priester. Falter should also be available, and Bubba could be very close also, so no need for 2 or 3 FA SP's. The lineup could be solid if we can locate a RH hitting CF to park in AAA and bring up in Aug/Sep of 2024.
Once we can identify our own image and clubhouse personality that will play through the entire season together, then we could possibly start to truly compete!
Baek-ho Kang and Kazuma Okamoto are names I'm keeping tabs on for next year as 1b ideas. Maybe we can trade a productive SP for a blocked 1b prospect, but I don't see us being able to competently fill 1b for some time. I think Joe has done nicely, but I don't count on it being sustainable.
This offense is offensive honestly (hat tip to peyton manning old smack talk commercial). We prioritized walks and pitch selectivity, which is fine in isolation, but it has come at a cost. Wwe are having bottom 5 Slugging and top 5% in soft contact with the 2nd most ground balls as a team. We need philosophical adjustment, look for your pitch regardless of count and actively hunt THAT pitch early in the counts.
Also, we are too complacent on the base paths. we have several above average speed players, and with a 15/2 SB/CS, we probably need to be running more overall. With 47% of our hit balls at GB, it would get us out of double plays more often...
Preach man about the base-running. Rather than Brock, we need someone like Omar Moreno to teach it. We are largely a station-to-station running team, which doesn't match up well with our hitters needing 3 hits in an inning to score a run.
Having better hitters 100% correlates better than baserunning, but what if you don't have a bunch of great hitters, but they can run? I see teams near the top in stolen bases that are possibly overachieving this year (Guardians, Royals, Brewers). The Reds and Rays are near the top as well, but not sure if that is helping them that much. I do think you can gain an advantage, if you are constructed that way.....usually small markets.
I agree with the correlation. I like the fact we are walking more, but I don't like the fact it feels like it is coming at the expense of making good quality contact. I feel like that is a philosophy issue. Go get me the equivalent of Driveline for hitters as a new hitting instructor / special assistant or whatever...
Though having better players I'd also subscribe to though. I'm done with Rowdy honestly.
You're gonna be shocked, absolutely shocked, to find out what they're teaching at Driveline. ;)
Anyways, the 2024 Pirates have taken called strikes at a 17.2% clip. The 2023 Pirates took called strikes at a 17.1% clip. The median ballclub in 2024 has taken strikes at a 17.0% clip.
That's one more strike taken per *500* pitches seen.
I do not think that's been the linchpin between the 2024 club we've seen and some powerhouse some seem to think we should've expected.
And yes, I too wish all the hitters swung at more strikes and less balls. I simply cannot fathom why one would not first consider that a skill issue and instead immediately jump to conspiratorial systemic approach.
So, we're already talking about next year? Dream on but this ownership and management have no intention of adding anything significant to the team because they like it this way. It's the losers mantra; "wait 'til next year." The problem of course is that next year never comes.
Well there's a name I'd like to see more of: Peyton
Stumbo with the Marauders! Not ideal for blown saves.
A's, Rockies, then Angels coming up.... should be a time to build some momentum (in theory)
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jared-jones-has-gone-from-raw-to-remarkable/
Nice article about Jones and his development over at FanGraphs.
Someone posted recently that Jones in fact, was not developed by the Pirates, but developed by Thomas Harrington.
Some of the stuff you read in these rooms is hilarious. The lengths some go to make a shitty org look even shittier blows my mind.
I posted that Jones altered his fastball this offseason on the recommendation of Thomas Harrington to a more split grip similar to Harrington's own because Jones said that's what happened in an interview with Pitching Ninja. That's not exactly "developing" Jones but Jones does credit the change in the pitch for his improved command and his walk rate is lower in MLB than it's ever been in the minors. Watch the interview if you like! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q87BOUY3Xvo
Sure, I was making fun of a shitty organization. It's easy to do!
Thanks. Great interview. Very informative. Pitching ninja's stuff is the best baseball content on the internet.
I thought it was a good one, too. Rob's great. Jones seems really raw and like he's just learning what he's capable of on the mound.
Get real. Pitchers from all 30 teams show each other different grips.
What the Pirates have done with Jared Jones is a clear developmental win.
That is actually a reason I was liking the minor league contract signings we did this year, like Brent Honeywell. He had at one point a plus plus changeup. If he can rub off of something working, GREAT! I'd love it if we can get Bubba to be in a similar spot as Jones in a year.
Ok boomer.
J Lo!
In NO way am I comparing Jones to these guys but Drysdale, Gibson. Jenkins and many other stud pitchers gave up a lot of long balls in their careers. IMHO Jones is going to be just fine.
Yep, add Max Scherzer to that list too.
5 Ks in 3 inning from Ortiz and Nicolas after 3 in 5 from Spencer Jones.
You can't predict baseball, fellas.
Jared didn't have a feel for his fastball, slider command. He struggled with this coming up through the ranks.
If that's bad Jared, I can live with it.
I think you must have the Yankees outfield prospect on the brain.
Shoot, I meant Jared Strider. ;)
I think for Jones to stay successful, the whip and batting average against need to stay low. In order for this to happen, his home runs given up will probably be high. In the last 5 years, some of the best pitchers have had Cy Young (or near) seasons with low whips and high home run totals. Justin Verlander, Gerit Cole, Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola come to mind.
Right on!
To vastly oversimplicate the situation, the difference between minor league Jones with ERAs over 4 and what we've seen in Pittsburgh to date largely comes down to solo homers instead of two and three run dingers. Homers are gonna happen with pitchers of his type, limiting baserunners will be what makes the whole thing work.
Thanks for oversimplicate -- gonna work that in when I conversate today.
annnnd, i shoulda read Catch's comment first. sorry buddy!
When you're throwing your 4-seamer up in the zone, you will get burned with HRs. The key as you alluded to is limiting walks and baserunners. Solo bomb we can live with, 3-run bomb we can't live with.
Came here to say this. Throw 97 up in the zone, occasionally you get one hit 400 ft. (Tell that to Bednar who the FIP gods laugh at but the xFIP gods say hes just as good as years past)
From FG, "It’s weird to see Hunter Stratton’s SwStk% so high, but his strikeout rate merely good. So a lot of his success so far has been because of his tiny 1.7% walk rate, which won’t last. There’s no real change in his pitch mix this year to explain the spike in SwStk%, but his minor league performances are littered with lots of high SwStk% marks, so this is nothing really new."
FG rated him as 40/40 command. The fact of the matter is that he is locating his slider very well. His fastball and cutter still end up middle-middle a little too much, but they are coming in mostly for strikes. Like anyone else, FG has a problem admitting error. His command is higher than a 40 grade at this point: probably 50.
walking 5 per 9 will get you a 40 command.
Hopefully he can maintain being a solid middle man.
But that's the point. He once walked 5 per 9. He does not now. Time to revise the expectations and the potential and actual grades. He has thrown 378 pitches in the majors. 261 of those pitches have been strikes. He has much better command than advertised or that was apparent from a quick examination of his minor league record.
My man, that 5 walks per 9 is almost 400 innings of data in the minors.
What he's done in the majors is over 26 innings.
You have to go with the large data and regression to the mean.
I really want Hunter Stratton to be good as well, but I'm not going to ignore hard data points.
you're this butthurt that they haven't updated the main page of an unranked prospect in an org who's 2024 list they have yet to even release?
Man, the things people get worked up about.
Lol... you are grumpy today. I'm not butthurt about it. I'm just commenting on the article by Fangraphs and think that they are reaching for some explanation of why Stratton is outperforming their expectations. Rather than revising their expectations, they are suggesting that some kind of major BB regression is due owing to sample size or something, but the sample is getting larger and there is no regression. Sometimes players change. Jones is a perfect example of how a change of grip on his fastball changed his potential command.
Cool, then let's bookmark this one.
You're holding to a position that Hunter Stratton's current 1.7% walk rate won't regress at all.
Let's see if that ends up looking ay better than Cody "xwOBA beater" Bellinger. (womp womp)
Who are we talking about here?
Hunter Stratton.
lol, way to tell us you never actually once saw Hunter Stratton pitch in the minors without telling us you never actually once saw Hunter Stratton pitch in the minors.
I never saw him pitch in the minors. I have seen him pitch in the majors, and his command is not 40. It may have been once, but it is not now.
The lesson may be that there’s such a thing as learning to pitch, which may not show up on Statcast.
A tough one to lose, but the game was well pitched by the Pirates - Jones 5 IP, Ortiz 2 IP, and Nicolas, just up from AAA, 1 IP. Some key hits to keep it close, and again, a very well played game defensively. Lots of positives to build on. Jones pitches that game at night at Oracle and those two HR's would not have even gotten to the Warning Track, but that's all a part of it, including the 14 mph "gentle" breeze straight out -it played the same for both teams, so no excuse.
Tip of the cap to the Giants for finding and developing Keaton Winn who has now started 5 games in 2024, averaging almost 6 IP/game, and only 11 runs scored against in those 5 games. A 20th round pick in 2017 from Iowa Western CC in Council Bluffs, Iowa!
That third inning could have got really ugly but I feel like Jones handled it pretty well getting out of it with only three runs allowed and then following it up with two shutdown innings. He's pitching for probably the worst offensive team in baseball so it's usually bad if a Pirate pitcher gives up even one run.
Winn hails from a town with 201 residents. Pretty amazing he’s made it this far from such humble beginnings.
As for Pirates, it was good to see Tellez finally square up a couple balls. Maybe he’s not completely washed after all?
And it was good to see Jones use his secondary pitches more frequently in an attempt to slow the bats down.
In order to be a winning club, Pirates bats, especially middle of order hitters, need to start driving more pitches. I think it will turnaround soon.
I would love to see any evidence at all to support your last sentence.
I agree with your comment on the Middle of the order. One thing to keep in mind is that the Pirates are always in a state of flux - Reynolds, Hayes, and Joe have been VG, but we have newbies MAT, Olivares, Tellez, Bart, and soon Grandal joining the lineup for 2024, and Oneil Cruz is returning after losing all of 2023 except for 9 Games. Our pitching has 4 new adds to the Rotation and a few new RP's also. Doing the numbers we have roughly 40% or more of the Roster thinking about where they came from, and where they might be in 3 months.
I think 'Cutch is not too far from announcing his retirement - getting No. 300 was necessary for his HOF Resume'. Joe has proven we only need one 1B, and Malcom Nunez could also help. Endy will return from injury, and Davis remains. Our homegrown Rotation will have Keller, Jones, Skenes, and possibly Priester. Falter should also be available, and Bubba could be very close also, so no need for 2 or 3 FA SP's. The lineup could be solid if we can locate a RH hitting CF to park in AAA and bring up in Aug/Sep of 2024.
Once we can identify our own image and clubhouse personality that will play through the entire season together, then we could possibly start to truly compete!
Incoming rant*
Baek-ho Kang and Kazuma Okamoto are names I'm keeping tabs on for next year as 1b ideas. Maybe we can trade a productive SP for a blocked 1b prospect, but I don't see us being able to competently fill 1b for some time. I think Joe has done nicely, but I don't count on it being sustainable.
This offense is offensive honestly (hat tip to peyton manning old smack talk commercial). We prioritized walks and pitch selectivity, which is fine in isolation, but it has come at a cost. Wwe are having bottom 5 Slugging and top 5% in soft contact with the 2nd most ground balls as a team. We need philosophical adjustment, look for your pitch regardless of count and actively hunt THAT pitch early in the counts.
Also, we are too complacent on the base paths. we have several above average speed players, and with a 15/2 SB/CS, we probably need to be running more overall. With 47% of our hit balls at GB, it would get us out of double plays more often...
Preach man about the base-running. Rather than Brock, we need someone like Omar Moreno to teach it. We are largely a station-to-station running team, which doesn't match up well with our hitters needing 3 hits in an inning to score a run.
Look around the league and patience correlates *with* power production far more than aggressiveness does.
What the Pirates need are better hitters.
Having better hitters 100% correlates better than baserunning, but what if you don't have a bunch of great hitters, but they can run? I see teams near the top in stolen bases that are possibly overachieving this year (Guardians, Royals, Brewers). The Reds and Rays are near the top as well, but not sure if that is helping them that much. I do think you can gain an advantage, if you are constructed that way.....usually small markets.
I agree with the correlation. I like the fact we are walking more, but I don't like the fact it feels like it is coming at the expense of making good quality contact. I feel like that is a philosophy issue. Go get me the equivalent of Driveline for hitters as a new hitting instructor / special assistant or whatever...
Though having better players I'd also subscribe to though. I'm done with Rowdy honestly.
You're gonna be shocked, absolutely shocked, to find out what they're teaching at Driveline. ;)
Anyways, the 2024 Pirates have taken called strikes at a 17.2% clip. The 2023 Pirates took called strikes at a 17.1% clip. The median ballclub in 2024 has taken strikes at a 17.0% clip.
That's one more strike taken per *500* pitches seen.
I do not think that's been the linchpin between the 2024 club we've seen and some powerhouse some seem to think we should've expected.
And yes, I too wish all the hitters swung at more strikes and less balls. I simply cannot fathom why one would not first consider that a skill issue and instead immediately jump to conspiratorial systemic approach.
So, we're already talking about next year? Dream on but this ownership and management have no intention of adding anything significant to the team because they like it this way. It's the losers mantra; "wait 'til next year." The problem of course is that next year never comes.
The lineup could be solid if we can locate a RH hitting CF to park in AAA and bring up in Aug/Sep of 2024.
...and the beat goes on
So will this RH CF play 6 or 7 positions? Because that is seemingly the number of places in the lineup that are not at all "solid" this year.
This RH CF will play 6 or 7 positions all at once. All they need is him, Hayes, Joe, Davis and the homegrown rotation.