OK, is there any reason for even considering keeping Andujar? I think that ship has sailed.
Borucki is a steal based on his 2023 performance. Connor Joe the same! I agree that Keller and Bednar are good front-end loaded extension possibilities. Keller and Bednar keep getting better and the Pirates need to lock them up for at least 2 years of FA.
BRU is about the same he was paid in 2023. When they are talking 14-16 months, they are taking rehab in the minors into that estimate - Yes? If he could be back in the Rotation by mid-June, that would be excellent.
They showed a willingness to eat Andujar’s 1.5M this year when he didn’t perform. If they want to risk eating 2M of Boba the Nutt’s money next year, it’s OK by me.
I think they'll probably extend Andujar an offer around $2 million as an insurance policy. Much like this past year he would probably clear waivers and accept an assignment to Indy.
They should definitely try to extend Keller and Bednar with frontloaded deals.
The other arbitration numbers look very reasonable.
I still think this would be a good off-season to extend Endy and possibly Cruz, get them at reasonable rates prior to a breakout.
Something has to give with all the spare parts. Joe, Palacios, Rivas, Andujar, and McCutchen are redundant. Seems like McCutchen will be back, so there really is room for only 1 of the others. I like Andujar, but your mileage may vary. Joe, Andujar, and Palacios have minor trade value, so there is no reason to just DFA any of them until late in the post-season when all the wheeling and dealing is complete.
There remains (somehow) a logjam of spare parts and/or struggling prospects in the middle infield: Marcano, Gonzalez. Williams, and Peguero. All of these have options, so the situation is not so pressing. They all also have minor trade value so moving any of them except Peguero seems like a good idea if a larger deal can be worked out.
Whatever the case, it is long past time to clear deadwood off the 40-man and try to form up a roster of 26 legitimate MLB players and 14 actual prospects with options. It is OK to trade prospects for veterans to fill out the 26-man with real talent, just so long as you do not trade 3 of your top prospects for a 2-pitch starter who is losing velocity and bite on his slider.
I think they've played their hand a little too long on some of the prospects, middle infielders mainly. I think they need to package a quantity over quality group to get a mid rotation veteran pitcher with 2 years of control or a 2 year established bat.
I think thier best bet is trying to find a change of scenery bat or arm on a swap for one of the middle infielders or pitchers.
I know it won't happen but my dream trade would be trading with the Halos. Pirates send up to 10 top 30 prospects for 2 players maybe a 3rd. Detmers and Schanuel (maybe Adell) for Harrington, Jebb, Barco, Wolf, Lopez, Forrester, Brannigan, Nunez, Chen and Terrero. I'd hope they would substitute TonyG, Contreras or a couple other 40 man players for the 2.
The only prospects I would have off limits in this sort of trade is the top 5, but I like a couple others more than pipeline (Ashcraft, White, Shim, and Kennedy) that I'd try to hold onto but I'd still swap out if it would make the trade go through.
I would agree wholeheartedly with packaging spare parts and a couple 40-45 grade prospects for a starting pitcher with a few years of control. I would much prefer this over bringing in a starter on a 3-4 year deal that will tie up 60-70 million over the competitive window and possibly prevent extensions to guys who merit an extension to keep the Pirates competitive for years to come.
Totally agree on getting a pitcher in the 3 to 4 year around 70 million. It's a bigger risk than a larger contract on a frontline starter.
I would love for them to go for a Yamamoto or a top line free agent like Montgomery but I don't see that happening. A trade is the only realistic way to get a 3 or better starter with some control. I don't mind a bounce back candidate or 2 at a reasonable rate but would like to see them have a second year option if it works out.
I will write something up at some point, but Nov. 14 is the date to set Reserve List, so not like tomorrow.
If you're interested, I talked early R5 a month back or so with Jeff and Cody on Two and Half Gringos. You can check that discussion out, or let me know if you have a specific question.
Also, on Twitter, I have a link to a spreadsheet I keep that has the entire list. You can look at that as well.
I think it still is 162 IP and that does not leave much room for any type of missed starts.
On FG, the Pirates in 2023 had Keller at #23 with 3.3 fWAR, and Oviedo at #37 with a 1.8 fWAR that passed the 162 IP threshold. Don't think they had anyone do that in 2022.
JC Flowers is a unique baseball story. An OF for most of his time in college at Fla St, he was used as a reliever in his draft year of 2019. After the draft, the Pirates immediately converted him into a SP at WV. Lost 2020, then at A+ in 2021 he was 5-2, 4.23 ERA in 11 Starts out of 15 appearances. Then in 2022 he was transitioned back into the BP at AA, and achieved an ERA of 2.88 in 31 games/69 IP in relief.
2023 was not very good at all in AAA with an ERA of 9.39, with only 46 IP and a whopping 39 Walks. He was placed on the Development List twice in 2023 so could the sudden lack of control be possibly an arm issue?
And the 93-94 was easy out of his hand - did he encounter an injury prior to or during the 2023 season? I missed it if he did, but going into 2023 he looked like a real possibility to get innings in the Pirate Bullpen.
MLBTR arb projections are out. Remarkably few eligible Pirates. They're not going to take much of a hit at all.
Borucki: 1.3M
Andujar: 2.2M
Keller: 6M
Brubaker: 2.28M
Bednar: 4.7M
Joe: 2M
Seems like the ideal time to extend Mitch & Bednar. Maybe frontload, like, a lot.
OK, is there any reason for even considering keeping Andujar? I think that ship has sailed.
Borucki is a steal based on his 2023 performance. Connor Joe the same! I agree that Keller and Bednar are good front-end loaded extension possibilities. Keller and Bednar keep getting better and the Pirates need to lock them up for at least 2 years of FA.
BRU is about the same he was paid in 2023. When they are talking 14-16 months, they are taking rehab in the minors into that estimate - Yes? If he could be back in the Rotation by mid-June, that would be excellent.
They showed a willingness to eat Andujar’s 1.5M this year when he didn’t perform. If they want to risk eating 2M of Boba the Nutt’s money next year, it’s OK by me.
I think they'll probably extend Andujar an offer around $2 million as an insurance policy. Much like this past year he would probably clear waivers and accept an assignment to Indy.
They should definitely try to extend Keller and Bednar with frontloaded deals.
The other arbitration numbers look very reasonable.
I still think this would be a good off-season to extend Endy and possibly Cruz, get them at reasonable rates prior to a breakout.
Something has to give with all the spare parts. Joe, Palacios, Rivas, Andujar, and McCutchen are redundant. Seems like McCutchen will be back, so there really is room for only 1 of the others. I like Andujar, but your mileage may vary. Joe, Andujar, and Palacios have minor trade value, so there is no reason to just DFA any of them until late in the post-season when all the wheeling and dealing is complete.
There remains (somehow) a logjam of spare parts and/or struggling prospects in the middle infield: Marcano, Gonzalez. Williams, and Peguero. All of these have options, so the situation is not so pressing. They all also have minor trade value so moving any of them except Peguero seems like a good idea if a larger deal can be worked out.
Whatever the case, it is long past time to clear deadwood off the 40-man and try to form up a roster of 26 legitimate MLB players and 14 actual prospects with options. It is OK to trade prospects for veterans to fill out the 26-man with real talent, just so long as you do not trade 3 of your top prospects for a 2-pitch starter who is losing velocity and bite on his slider.
I think they've played their hand a little too long on some of the prospects, middle infielders mainly. I think they need to package a quantity over quality group to get a mid rotation veteran pitcher with 2 years of control or a 2 year established bat.
I think thier best bet is trying to find a change of scenery bat or arm on a swap for one of the middle infielders or pitchers.
I know it won't happen but my dream trade would be trading with the Halos. Pirates send up to 10 top 30 prospects for 2 players maybe a 3rd. Detmers and Schanuel (maybe Adell) for Harrington, Jebb, Barco, Wolf, Lopez, Forrester, Brannigan, Nunez, Chen and Terrero. I'd hope they would substitute TonyG, Contreras or a couple other 40 man players for the 2.
The only prospects I would have off limits in this sort of trade is the top 5, but I like a couple others more than pipeline (Ashcraft, White, Shim, and Kennedy) that I'd try to hold onto but I'd still swap out if it would make the trade go through.
I would agree wholeheartedly with packaging spare parts and a couple 40-45 grade prospects for a starting pitcher with a few years of control. I would much prefer this over bringing in a starter on a 3-4 year deal that will tie up 60-70 million over the competitive window and possibly prevent extensions to guys who merit an extension to keep the Pirates competitive for years to come.
Totally agree on getting a pitcher in the 3 to 4 year around 70 million. It's a bigger risk than a larger contract on a frontline starter.
I would love for them to go for a Yamamoto or a top line free agent like Montgomery but I don't see that happening. A trade is the only realistic way to get a 3 or better starter with some control. I don't mind a bounce back candidate or 2 at a reasonable rate but would like to see them have a second year option if it works out.
Off topic, but is it possible to provide a list of the Pirate players who will be Rule 5 eligible this year? Only two months away.
I have a list, although I can't remember for sure whether I finished it. I want to check to see whether Ethan was going to do something.
Thank you. Not much for Pirate fans to consider at this time of year (hoping that will change in 2024), and the R5 is always a great discussion piece!
I will write something up at some point, but Nov. 14 is the date to set Reserve List, so not like tomorrow.
If you're interested, I talked early R5 a month back or so with Jeff and Cody on Two and Half Gringos. You can check that discussion out, or let me know if you have a specific question.
Also, on Twitter, I have a link to a spreadsheet I keep that has the entire list. You can look at that as well.
Our fall contingent this year appears to be the AFL equivalent of VanMeter, Hedges and Chavis.
Trying to figure out how far the Bucs are from competing...
Looking at the 4 remaining NL teams, I was surprised by how few starting pitchers pitched 10% of their teams innings
Basically that’s 144IP
My conclusion is that the Pirates may already have enough of those guys - Keller and Oviedo
I don't know if this is the case anymore, but the qualifying mark for a starting pitcher was 162 innings.
I think it still is 162 IP and that does not leave much room for any type of missed starts.
On FG, the Pirates in 2023 had Keller at #23 with 3.3 fWAR, and Oviedo at #37 with a 1.8 fWAR that passed the 162 IP threshold. Don't think they had anyone do that in 2022.
JC Flowers is a unique baseball story. An OF for most of his time in college at Fla St, he was used as a reliever in his draft year of 2019. After the draft, the Pirates immediately converted him into a SP at WV. Lost 2020, then at A+ in 2021 he was 5-2, 4.23 ERA in 11 Starts out of 15 appearances. Then in 2022 he was transitioned back into the BP at AA, and achieved an ERA of 2.88 in 31 games/69 IP in relief.
2023 was not very good at all in AAA with an ERA of 9.39, with only 46 IP and a whopping 39 Walks. He was placed on the Development List twice in 2023 so could the sudden lack of control be possibly an arm issue?
Feels like his stuff also took a step back, only 90-92 right now? I think of him comfortably sitting 93-94.
And the 93-94 was easy out of his hand - did he encounter an injury prior to or during the 2023 season? I missed it if he did, but going into 2023 he looked like a real possibility to get innings in the Pirate Bullpen.
Hopefully hes not another guy who lost a few mph only to never find it again